Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Chief]

Even though Gorbachev, Yeltsin and then Putin opened the doors to capitalism,

I haven't studied the history, but this doesn't seem to have been the case entirely.

I don't buy the idea that the Evil West is responsible for it all.

Didn't the oligarchs loot the carcass of the Soviet Union? Haven't they just been exporting money to safer economies and not developing and investing enough to keep their industries efficient? From what I have read and watched, Putin controls the oligarchs, with a number of examples given from over the years.

 

[jatz14]

Let's have a look at the history of NATO, since there are many here who claim that the expansion of NATO is some kind of benign tendency aiming only to counteract the evil Putin regime.

NATO was founded in 1949 less than four years after the end of World War II, in the initial years of the Cold War, as an alliance aimed against the Soviet Union.

At the time it was established, the claim was made that NATO was an alliance purely to serve the "defence" and "security" of Europe. This was a lie, from the very beginning.

At the same time as NATO was founded, the Chinese revolution had just triumphed. All the imperialist member nations of NATO pursued brutal unrestrained violence in colonial wars in Indochina, Korea, Algeria, Africa and beyond. NATO supported right wing coups in Greece and Turkey, and against left wing nationalist governments in Latin America.

In 1991, the Soviet Union was liquidated by its own ruling elite, and the Warsaw Pact was also dissolved. However, NATO did not dissolve itself, despite the fact that it justified its own existence on the threat supposedly posed by the Soviet Union.

And this is because, in fact, NATO was not fundamentally directed against just the Soviet Union. It was a vehicle through which US and European imperialism ultimately aimed to resubjugate world after their temporary retreat post WW2 caused by the successful colonial revolutions of the 60's and 70's which led to the former colonies establishing a certain, very limited degree of resistance to the ravages of imperialism.

Imperialism never gave up on its drive to take revenge on the Russian Revolution, and subject the former Soviet Union to colonial domination. Even though Gorbachev, Yeltsin and then Putin opened the doors to capitalism, this was not enough. The imperialists have never relinquished their aim to batter the doors entirely down. They failed the first time when they organised the intervention of the White Armies, and have been waiting for the opportunity ever since.

America’s European allies, pursuing their own imperialist interests, followed its lead. NATO is the instrument with which they pursue this goal. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO or its members have been waging war practically without interruption.

Let's look at the record of NATO, - supposedly according to the posters here, an institution for "democracy and freedom"

The US first attacked Iraq in 1990. In 1999, NATO bombed Serbia without a UN mandate—in violation of international law—and forced the secession of Kosovo. In 2001, NATO invoked the mutual defence clause, for the first and only time, and occupied Afghanistan, conducting a war that lasted 20 years and ended with the destruction of the country and the return of the Taliban. Although subsequent wars against Iraq, Libya and Syria took place outside the official NATO structures, they were supported by most NATO member states.

Parallel to the wars in the Middle East, NATO systematically advanced towards Russia and incorporated the whole of Eastern Europe and—with the Baltic states—parts of the former Soviet Union.

The world’s most powerful military alliance grew from 12 to 32 members. Last year, it spent $1.3 trillion on defense, or 60 percent of global military spending. The US military budget alone totalled $905 billion, more than the next 15 countries combined. In contrast, China only spent $220 billion and Russia $109 billion on defense.

From its very inception, NATO was a vehicle aiming to spearhead imperialist domination.

With this historical record, the claims that NATO is only concerned about "freedom and democracy" for the people of Ukraine are contemptible and laughable.

Drivel.

 

[IlovethePies]

I haven't studied the history, but this doesn't seem to have been the case entirely.

I don't buy the idea that the Evil West is responsible for it all.

Didn't the oligarchs loot the carcass of the Soviet Union? Haven't they just been exporting money to safer economies and not developing and investing enough to keep their industries efficient? From what I have read and watched, Putin controls the oligarchs, with a number of examples given from over the years.

Yes, that is what I said. Gorbachev, Yeltsin etc liquidated the Soviet Union and reintroduced capitalism to secure their privileges as capitalist entrepreneurs who now owned the previously nationalised property.

The Stalinist bureaucrats were responsible for dissolving the Soviet Union and the catastrophic collaspe in living standards for the vast majority that then ensued.

As you hint, ultimately this was because the Soviet economy could not withstand the pressure of global capitalism. The global capitalist economy was technologically far more efficient and peoductive than the Soviet economy, which was cut off from the vast developments in computerisation which were at that time taking place in the Western economies.

 

[Chief]

As you hint, ultimately this was because the Soviet economy could not withstand the pressure of global capitalism. The global capitalist economy was technologically far more efficient and peoductive than the Soviet economy, which was cut off from the vast developments in computerisation which were at that time taking place in the Western economies.

I'm talking about right up until today.

Putin and the oligarchs.

 

[IlovethePies]

Drivel.

Yeah, thought it might go over your head.

 

[ferball]

I'm talking about right up until today.

Putin and the oligarchs.

Most of the looting had happened by the time Putin came to power.

 

[Chief]

Most of the looting had happened by the time Putin came to power.

They kept sending money out to tax havens like the UK. With Putin's blessing.

I don't get the desire to blame everyone but Putin - the guy running the whole show.

 

[barreness]

It must be comforting, knowing that if a previously non democratic country, with a government installed by the Russian military rolling in, elects a pro democracy pro Western government, they can be just dismissed as, installed by the US.

Ukraine has been democratic since the early 90's, tanks only rolled in 2022.

Pro Russian govts are puppets, Pro US govts are the democratic will off the people right? I'm saying they're both puppets. The country was clearly split on maiden

Otherwise you might have to take peoples wishes into account when deciding what should happen to them, and who the **** wants to do that.

Yanukovych was democratically elected. Polish, German, and Russian diplomats signed a deal with the elected govt to deal with the ongoing protests and erupting violence. Then Victoria Nuland came in with the '**** the EU' and installed a leader, this is not hidden knowledge

 

[ferball]

They kept sending money out to tax havens like the UK. With Putin's blessing.

I don't get the desire to blame everyone but Putin - the guy running the whole show.

This was written before Putin came to power:

The Looting of Russia

Mark WeisbrotFort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, September 8, 1999

cepr.net

Everyone looking to blame Putin for everything wrong in Eastern Europe, instead of what he's actually done, or trying to paint him as some cartoonish super villain instead of the ordinary villain he is, is missing everything else.

Here is a graph of the GDP p/c PPP of Russia. Note what happened when Putin took over.




One of the reasons he was so popular in Russia was because he reversed the economic catastrophe that happened after capitalists in the West and gangsters in the East (like there's a difference) looted the former USSR. The first wave of Oligarchs, connected with organised crime and Western capital were the ones Putin attacked. He replaced them with many of his "mates" but what was effectively crony capitalism and a mafia state became more of a state capitalism model (despite the gangster like nature of how Putin ran Russia. They just skimmed alot less off the top and helped build a functioning society again.)

You don't have to like Putin or approve of what he did but ignoring that he slowed the flight of capital from Russia, significantly improved its economy and gave ordinary Russians some pride in their country and hope for the future after the 1990s is foolish cos you're replacing the reality of the situation with a cartoonish, propaganda inspired worldview.

You can bet the people running the US state dept. share the view I just presented, whatever they say publicly. That's cos they are in the business of dealing with reality, however they feel about Putin. In any fight if you can't accurately assess your enemy you will underestimate them and be more likely to lose.

 

[Chief]

He replaced them with many of his "mates" but what was effectively crony capitalism and a mafia state became more of a state capitalism model (despite the gangster like nature of how Putin ran Russia. They just skimmed alot less off the top and helped build a functioning society again.)

This doesn't match the bits and pieces I've read over the years. Rising oil and gas prices have been a big source of Putin's power and wealth. The place still has a tiny GDP per capita - and I thought it was even more than $30k.

Murder and terrorism have had a good bit to do with his control. Giving the church more support in a feudal style control system. Imprisoning or murdering inconvenient rivals and protesters. Extending his dictatorship by any means.

Now the attempted genocide of Ukrainians.

I agree it's not a one-dimensional story, but it's not one of a man of the people saving Russia from evil. Replacing private crime with state crime isn't much of an improvement. And now the brain drain is on and the economy is a wreck.

He is a vicious psychopath by anyone's standards.

 

[ferball]

This doesn't match the bits and pieces I've read over the years. Rising oil and gas prices have been a big source of Putin's power and wealth. The place still has a tiny GDP per capita - and I thought it was even more than $30k.

Murder and terrorism have had a good bit to do with his control. Giving the church more support in a feudal style control system. Imprisoning or murdering inconvenient rivals and protesters. Extending his dictatorship by any means.

Now the attempted genocide of Ukrainians.

I agree it's not a one-dimensional story, but it's not one of a man of the people saving Russia from evil. Replacing private crime with state crime isn't much of an improvement. And now the brain drain is on and the economy is a wreck.

He is a vicious psychopath by anyone's standards.

I do mostly agree with that, especially the bolded bits, but the view of Putin in Russia for most of the first 20 years of this century was that bolded italic line. And he did have a vision for Russia (however demented) that many Russians bought into.

IMO one of the key drivers of fascism is the desire for lost power and glory, both on a national level and on a personal level for people who have lost economic power and prestige. (This is how it appeals to the working class when they don't have jobs that pay them enough any more.)

 

[Chief]

Yes as I recall there are about 5 main aspects of fascism. Appeal to past glories is a big one. Trump and co do this one.

Even when things are going well, you can always romanticise a golden age from your youth, or from your grandparents stories.

 

[Zidane98]

Yes as I recall there are about 5 main aspects of fascism. Appeal to past glories is a big one. Trump and co do this one.

Even when things are going well, you can always romanticise a golden age from your youth, or from your grandparents stories.

MTHREGA

Make The Russian Empire Great Again


Vlad's new mantra.

 

[barreness]

Just to do a way back thing when a bunch of people were talking about Stalin being equal to Hitler

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/sep/09/second-world-war-soviet-pact
(from 2009)

That was a good deal less true of the previous year's Munich agreement, in which British and French politicians dismembered Czechoslovakia at the Nazi dictator's pleasure. The one pact that could conceivably have prevented war, a collective security alliance with the Soviet Union, was in effect blocked by the appeaser Chamberlain and an authoritarian Polish government that refused to allow Soviet troops on Polish soil.......
But across eastern Europe, the Baltic republics and the Ukraine, the drive to rewrite history is being used to relativise Nazi crimes and rehabilitate collaborators. At the official level, it has focused on a campaign to turn August 23 – the anniversary of the non-aggression pact – into a day of commemoration for the victims of communism and nazism.....
But the pretence that Soviet repression reached anything like the scale or depths of Nazi savagery – or that the postwar "enslavement" of eastern Europe can be equated with wartime Nazi genocide – is a mendacity that tips towards Holocaust denial. It is certainly not a mistake that could have been made by the Auschwitz survivors liberated by the Red Army in 1945.


This a blog post(though sourced) so it'll probably be written off, but it explains why Canada was celebrating an SS soldier in parliament when Zelensky visited
https://redsails.org/black-ribbon-day/

The 2,000 settled in major Canadian cities, and it is estimated that about half of them are still alive.One of the ways of getting into Canada during the postwar period “was by showing the SS tattoo,” Canadian historian Irving Abella told “60 Minutes” interviewer Mike Wallace.“This proved that you were an anti-Communist.”






Some recent goings on from Canada
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/nati...ntial-nazi-or-fascist-links-report-recommends

The department had determined that 50 to 60 of the names or organizations were likely directly linked to the Nazis, according to the documents obtained by the Ottawa Citizen through an access to information request.

A 2023 report for Canadian Heritage recommended more than 330 names be excluded to be on the safe side, the records noted.

 

[barreness]

This doesn't match the bits and pieces I've read over the years. Rising oil and gas prices have been a big source of Putin's power and wealth. The place still has a tiny GDP per capita - and I thought it was even more than $30k.

They haven't really risen, extraction level has though

44k by ppp, pretty good for society excluded from the dominant section of the world

Murder and terrorism have had a good bit to do with his control.

You can take the russian out of russia......

Giving the church more support in a feudal style control system.

The church is overated, they have lower attendance rates than the US. Communism had an affect

Imprisoning or murdering inconvenient rivals and protesters.

Yah

Extending his dictatorship by any means.

Also pretty popular

Now the attempted genocide of Ukrainians.

Debatable

I agree it's not a one-dimensional story, but it's not one of a man of the people saving Russia from evil.

Saved from the doldrums of the post soviet 90's

Replacing private crime with state crime isn't much of an improvement

That's capitalism baby

And now the brain drain is on and the economy is a wreck.

Overstated

He is a vicious psychopath by anyone's standards.

Calculating Ruski, he did save the puppy one time

 

[Chief]

They haven't really risen, extraction level has though

44k by ppp, pretty good for society excluded from the dominant section of the world

Quick Google to refresh my memory of the last time I looked -

Their billionaires make up more of the GDP per capita than any other country.

Saved from the doldrums of the post soviet 90's

Bottom 50% share of GDP cut in half in the 90's. Top 1% quadrupled. Very slowly narrowing over time. 08 financial crisis took a bite out of the top 1% - Putin can't really be praised for that.

Corruption indices are high. Public services poor.

Trillions hidden in tax havens. Low investment.

They're in the zone of wealth inequality and low GDP, while the US's wealth inequality is off of a higher base.

Now Putin pulled the plug on what little progress was made. Brain drain and sanctions will have huge effects into the future.

Middle class disappearing and it's back to chaos and rising inequality, while draining the public purse (and killing 600,000 of his own citizens) for delusions of empire.

But he has the Urals and Asian Russia to drain of people and resources to keep his mates happy and his head out of a noose. For now.

 

[IlovethePies]

Proof again that Zelensky and Putin were on the verge of signing a peace treaty just after the Russian invasion began, but this was sabotaged by the US and the UK

 

[Mobbs]

Proof again that Zelensky and Putin were on the verge of signing a peace treaty just after the Russian invasion began, but this was sabotaged by the US and the UK

Nobody denies there was almost a 'peace deal' signed off on by Putin and Zelensky just after one of Russias invasions (the 2022 one). There were various rounds of mediations over a few months.

Fortunately there were wiser heads around to warn Zelensky what 'peace deal' means to Putin and Russia - that of a chance to reload and attack again, as shown in Georgia and Chechnya etc. I remember Kallas (Estonia) and Le Drian (France) both reminding Ukraine how Russia seems to have an interpretation problem with the term 'negotation' (as they also seem to do with 'independent republic'.

If Zelensky had accepted this deal, by now Ukrainians would already be marching on Poland or Moldova under Putin's orders. Just as so many Chechens are now perpetrating v Ukraine after their 'peace deal'. (does not apply to those Ukrainians Putin's Russia would already have cleansed, deported or r*ped out of existence)

 

[wannabejack]

Proof again that Zelensky and Putin were on the verge of signing a peace treaty just after the Russian invasion began, but this was sabotaged by the US and the UK

The article

As US votes, Ukraine’s future hangs in balance

Ukrainians on the front lines tell the BBC's James Waterhouse that their country’s survival is in the hands of Americans.

www.bbc.com

“clipped that piece deceptively”
There’s a feeling here that Ukraine should have negotiated at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, to prevent the death and destruction they’ve seen since.

Both sides engaged in talks in those early months of 2022. But evidence of alleged Russian war crimes halted attempts at diplomacy, and strengthened Ukraine’s resolve to fight on.

From X

 

[Chief]

Aaron Mate? We're listening to the conspiracy kooks now?

 

[IlovethePies]

Aaron Mate? We're listening to the conspiracy kooks now?

Not everything that you disagree with is a conspiracy.

 

[IlovethePies]

The article

As US votes, Ukraine’s future hangs in balance

Ukrainians on the front lines tell the BBC's James Waterhouse that their country’s survival is in the hands of Americans.

www.bbc.com

“clipped that piece deceptively”
There’s a feeling here that Ukraine should have negotiated at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, to prevent the death and destruction they’ve seen since.

Both sides engaged in talks in those early months of 2022. But evidence of alleged Russian war crimes halted attempts at diplomacy, and strengthened Ukraine’s resolve to fight on.

From X
View attachment 2157193

What strengthened Zelensky's resolve to fight on was the intervention of Boris Johnson, who it is well known was trying to curry favour with US imperialism as an attack dog to provoke the war with Russia.

The BBC functions as a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism. There is simply no reason to believe the BBC above Aaron Mate.

 

[wannabejack]

What strengthened Zelensky's resolve to fight on was the intervention of Boris Johnson, who it is well known was trying to curry favour with US imperialism as an attack dog to provoke the war with Russia.

The BBC functions as a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism. There is simply no reason to believe the BBC above Aaron Mate.

You’re the one who posted Mr. Bates quoting BBC News on X. So you have Mr. Aaron Bates quoting from "a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism" but only using the bit that fits in with his agenda. So the bit that fits in with his (and your) agenda isn’t propaganda of British imperialism but everything else is?

You also need a bit more than “it is well known” and “simply no reason”.

 

[IlovethePies]

You’re the one who posted Mr. Bates quoting BBC News on X. So you have Mr. Aaron Bates quoting from "a conduit for the propaganda of British imperialism" but only using the bit that fits in with his agenda. So the bit that fits in with his (and your) agenda isn’t propaganda of British imperialism but everything else is?

You also need a bit more than “it is well known” and “simply no reason”.

Who is Mr Bates?

 

[Chief]

There is simply no reason to believe the BBC above Aaron Mate.

Mad take.