Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[barreness]

Yep, like history is so damning of Winston Churchill, but holds Neville Chamberlain in so much high regard.

Spare me.

And this is a rewrite of history. Chamberlain actually brought Britain time and poured money into the RAF, amongst other things getting the spitfire which arguably saved the Island and a complete take of western europe.

Churchill was and always remained a racist bastard, could give a speech though.

Appeasement gets a bad wrap. No one tried it in WW1 and it led to a cluste**** for no real reason, they tried it in WW2 because they didn't want to do the same war 20 years later. Also led to a cluster**** but it bought both the Soviet Union and Britain time to hold on

 

[barreness]

Put(in) your trust in russia. (excuse the pun)

Chechnya.
May 1997 peace treaty.
By the autumn of 1999, Russian troops were back in Chechnya.

Yeh because the Chechens formed a caliphate and invaded Dagestan. It's a bit like Georgia shelling the autonomous regions.

It's a retcon because Russia is the bad guy now

N.B First Chechen war was mostly Russia being horrible

 

[barreness]

Putin Russia always wanted Ukraine as part of russia or at the least a puppet state.

Yep, because it has been for centuries. It's why the US getting involved was madness

 

[barreness]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4904188-us-russia-relations-helsinki-report/

The bipartisan committee charged with supporting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states is pushing for the United States to dump the post-Cold War status quo in its relations with Russia and label Moscow as a “persistent” threat to global security.

These lawmakers are likely to embrace the report’s conclusions that “the United States must prepare for long-term contestation, understanding that Russia has a centuries-long history of violent imperialism toward its neighbors, Europe, and the world more broadly.”

The irony of a state with 800 military bases in 80 nations saying this

They further argue that Putin is a disingenuous negotiator and any deal that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia will embolden the Russian leader to relaunch an expansionist war in Ukraine, further pursue aggression in neighboring, post-Soviet states and potentially attack NATO member states in which Moscow is already carrying out hybrid-warfare.

The report wants to shift Washington’s thinking away from viewing Russia as a superpower and near-peer of the U.S. just because it holds nuclear weapons.

Shit yeh, nuclear war, lets go baby

 

[Vitriol]

And this is a rewrite of history. Chamberlain actually brought Britain time and poured money into the RAF, amongst other things getting the spitfire which arguably saved the Island and a complete take of western europe.

Churchill was and always remained a racist bastard, could give a speech though.

Appeasement gets a bad wrap. No one tried it in WW1 and it led to a cluste** for no real reason, they tried it in WW2 because they didn't want to do the same war 20 years later. Also led to a cluster** but it bought both the Soviet Union and Britain time to hold on

Pretty arse backwards understanding of appeasement. The French and British military forces were vastly superior to the Germans in the build up to WW2 considering the limitations put on them by the treaty of Versailles. The Germans were ramping up up preparations for war because they were always planning on it while the allies were slow to react and the Germans were able to start pulling ahead of them. Appeasement simply gave the Germans time to catch up.

If say the french had enacted the treaty of Versailles in 36 when the Germans remilitarised the Rhineland the Germans would not have had a chance. Three years later though and the Germans had outproduced the allies and evened out the balance of power to the point they were strong enough to defeat the french who had been dragging their feet in regards to rearmament.

 

[Chief]

NATO should have backed off Ukraine due to the various warnings that were given and that it something that Russia wouldn't swallow.

This to me is a bit icky. It's a "look what you made me do" thing on Putin's part.
However, I agree that NATO should have been better prepared for Putin's attack. That they don't seem to have had a concrete plan in place to send equipment in and train operators is pretty shocking.

 

[wannabejack]

Yep, because it has been for centuries. It's why the US getting involved was madness

It’s not like Ukraine wanted to be part of russia. It still doesn’t want to be part of russia.
It was once part of Poland.

Russia and Ukraine: the tangled history that connects—and divides—them

Centuries of bloodshed, foreign domination, and internal divisions have left Ukraine in a precarious position between East and West.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently declared, “Russians and Ukrainians are one people, a single whole.”

Yet over the past 10 centuries, Ukraine has repeatedly been carved up by competing powers.

Over the years that followed, a policy known as Russification banned the use and study of the Ukrainian language, and people were pressured to convert to the Russian Orthodox faith.

“Winning” this war may be the last chance the people of Ukraine have of being Ukrainian and not second class russian.

 

[Venkman]

This to me is a bit icky. It's a "look what you made me do" thing on Putin's part.
However, I agree that NATO should have been better prepared for Putin's attack. That they don't seem to have had a concrete plan in place to send equipment in and train operators is pretty shocking.

I don't know if it's icky... I think we get caught up in what morally justifiable - like one aspect of these American wars is not whether they are morally justifiable but whether they are practically achievable. States will say 'look what you made me do' regardless, but they, again in response to their interests. The US was never going to allow USSR missiles on cuba and this part of the realist take that Obama had, he basically said that Ukraine couldn't be defended as the Russians would have 'escalatory dominance,' and this true insofar as the Russians have the unity and resolve to be keeping at it. As for NATO preparedness, I'm no expert on this, I think they were pretty prepared but couldn't really foresee how much stuff would get churned or that Russia had so much latent capacity for production. Putin is more a rational actor than people give him credit. Part of the heartbreak for Ukrainians will be once this thing is resolved there will be a few platitudes from western leaders and business with Russia will resume as usual.

 

[Cap]

It’s not like Ukraine wanted to be part of russia. It still doesn’t want to be part of russia.
It was once part of Poland.

Russia and Ukraine: the tangled history that connects—and divides—them

Centuries of bloodshed, foreign domination, and internal divisions have left Ukraine in a precarious position between East and West.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently declared, “Russians and Ukrainians are one people, a single whole.”

Yet over the past 10 centuries, Ukraine has repeatedly been carved up by competing powers.

Over the years that followed, a policy known as Russification banned the use and study of the Ukrainian language, and people were pressured to convert to the Russian Orthodox faith.

“Winning” this war may be the last chance the people of Ukraine have of being Ukrainian and not second class russian.

I find it absolutely incredible that anyone can be content suggesting a group of people should always been under control of another group of people because in various time in the past they have been.

should we head back the UK and be seen as as an colony controlled by the UK parliament just because we were in the past ?

 

[Cap]

Yeh because the Chechens formed a caliphate and invaded Dagestan. It's a bit like Georgia shelling the autonomous regions.

It's a retcon because Russia is the bad guy now

N.B First Chechen war was mostly Russia being horrible

Lol.

You mean when Putin likely blew up an apartment block to justify a war.

Russia were the bad guy there too as they were in Georgia.

your claims of not being a Russian shill are particularly hard to defend when you keep regurgitating Russian talking points.

 

[ferball]

Yep, like history is so damning of Winston Churchill, but holds Neville Chamberlain in so much high regard.

Spare me.

Winston Churchill was a genocidal, racist pos who was happy to set up concentration camps in Africa after WW2 happened. Barak Obomber's grandad ended up in one.

Just for the record.

 

[Cap]

Winston Churchill was a genocidal, racist pos who was happy to set up concentration camps in Africa after WW2 happened. Barak Obomber's grandad ended up in one.

Just for the record.

Churchill has been romanticised , to be fair he was a big player in WWII , despite his numerous and often horrific flaws.

Let's not forget he would have given us up to the Japanese if push had come to shove (but that's a whole other debate)

 

[Zidane98]

There's a massive extrapolation here that Putin = Hitler. The amount of civilian deaths in this war is around a 1/4 of Palestine which is not to justify anything. I'm not a Putin appeaser, just a realist - again I'd cite Meershiemer who argued that Ukraine should never have given over nukes initially due to the power imbalance but also that NATO should have backed off Ukraine due to the various warnings that were given and that it something that Russia wouldn't swallow. I do have children and wouldn't let them sign up for any imperialist war whether it was masterminded by Moscow, or Washington. The grubby fingers of the US neocons are all over this one - the same lunatics behind Iraq and Afghanistan. And for what? The power imbalance is such that Russia will grind it out and the yanks will lose interest. It's the same shit over and over. Rinse and repeat.

The amount of civilian deaths would be huge if it weren't for defensive weapons being supplied to Ukraine. Putin is deporting children against their will to Russia in huge numbers, often to Siberia. He's set up filtration camps, he regularly demonises Ukranine language & culture publicly. Very similar to what Hitler did in the leadup to WW2 right down to supposedly wanting to protect the Sundten Germans (this of course was nonsense). I find this is quote a concise article about the whole situation. Putin's obsession about the demise of the USSR is eerily similar to Hitler's obsession about Germany's loss in WW1 and the treaty of Versailles:

Is History Rhyming? The Putin – Hitler Analogy, Ukraine and Euro-Atlantic Security | CDA Institute

At the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict in 2014 when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces invaded Crimea, there was a torrent of criticism from the West, accompanied by economic sanctions. A speech Putin delivered on March 18, 2014, attempting to justify the takeover, prompted further...

cdainstitute.ca

Nothing wrong with Ukraine turning over nuclear weapons and nuclear bomber fleet to Russia in order to strengthen regional stability. It is notable that it was the US & UK (both NATO members) mostly who encouraged Ukraine to do this.


NATO don't approach anyone and absolutely are a non factor in Ukraine. Infact Putin's aggression has directly resulted in NATO expansion and a new 1300km border with NATO. How does Putin respond to this? Withdraws military power from the NATO border to focus on invading a non NATO neighbor.


Basically Ukraine and its people want to be a European nation, they don't want to be tied up with Belarus and whatever few allies Russia has. If Putin was smart he would win Ukraine back similar to how the Chinese are taking away Central Asia from Russian power - being a friendly neighbor and plenty of nation building projects.


Putin's invasion of Ukraine is simply down to a desire for Putin to create a new Russian empire (the victory speech Russia had prepared in anticipation of a quick win was leaked saying all of this). He loses nothing by withdrawing from Ukraine completely, signing a new peace deal.

 

[barreness]

Pretty arse backwards understanding of appeasement. The French and British military forces were vastly superior to the Germans in the build up to WW2 considering the limitations put on them by the treaty of Versailles. The Germans were ramping up up preparations for war because they were always planning on it while the allies were slow to react and the Germans were able to start pulling ahead of them. Appeasement simply gave the Germans time to catch up.

Nah

The Germans broke the agreement about two years after, under the Weimar Republic("liberal democracy")

In 1920, the head of the Reichswehr Hans von Seeckt clandestinely re-established the General Staff, by expanding the Truppenamt (Troop Office); purportedly a human resources section of the army.[158][159] In March, 18,000 German troops entered the Rhineland under the guise of attempting to quell possible unrest by the Communist Party of Germany and in doing so violated the demilitarized zone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles#Violations

It was a classic case of drawing two enemies together, as we see in Ukraine(Russia and China). The soviet Union and Germany were both heavily sanctioned and it drew them together, obviously this changed after the nazi's took power

If say the french had enacted the treaty of Versailles in 36 when the Germans remilitarised the Rhineland the Germans would not have had a chance. Three years later though and the Germans had outproduced the allies and evened out the balance of power to the point they were strong enough to defeat the french who had been dragging their feet in regards to rearmament.

Yeh sure, history what ifs? If the Brits and French allied with the USSR then this war could have been over in a week but they hated the soviets
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Entente

 

[barreness]

It’s not like Ukraine wanted to be part of russia. It still doesn’t want to be part of russia.
It was once part of Poland.

Yeh sure

Russia and Ukraine: the tangled history that connects—and divides—them

Centuries of bloodshed, foreign domination, and internal divisions have left Ukraine in a precarious position between East and West.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently declared, “Russians and Ukrainians are one people, a single whole.”

Yet over the past 10 centuries, Ukraine has repeatedly been carved up by competing powers.

And the bulk of that time they've been under Russian(czar or soviet) control. The history is interesting and we can say there is no imperial power that hasn't tried to take Ukraine

Over the years that followed, a policy known as Russification banned the use and study of the Ukrainian language, and people were pressured to convert to the Russian Orthodox faith.

Yet you speak English as an Australian, treason

The soviet Union was actually pretty pluralist, well before the liberal west

“Winning” this war may be the last chance the people of Ukraine have of being Ukrainian and not second class russian.

It's interesting how complete nationalism has consumed you.

Why do you as an australian feel australian, would it be different if the name changed?

 

[Vitriol]

Nah

The Germans broke the agreement about two years after, under the Weimar Republic("liberal democracy")

In 1920, the head of the Reichswehr Hans von Seeckt clandestinely re-established the General Staff, by expanding the Truppenamt (Troop Office); purportedly a human resources section of the army.[158][159] In March, 18,000 German troops entered the Rhineland under the guise of attempting to quell possible unrest by the Communist Party of Germany and in doing so violated the demilitarized zone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles#Violations

It was a classic case of drawing two enemies together, as we see in Ukraine(Russia and China). The soviet Union and Germany were both heavily sanctioned and it drew them together, obviously this changed after the nazi's took power.

Not really sure how this is relevant to the crux of my post but sure. One of the interesting things about the treaty of Versailles was that whilst severe in it's original form it was in general never heavily enforced by the allies in practice.

What I was addressing was your stating that the policy of appeasement helped the allies to prepare for war when in reality it actually allowed nazi Germany to build up militarily.

 

[Baldur]

Not really sure how this is relevant to the crux of my post but sure. One of the interesting things about the treaty of Versailles was that whilst severe in it's original form it was in general never heavily enforced by the allies in practice.

What I was addressing was your stating that the policy of appeasement helped the allies to prepare for war when in reality it actually allowed nazi Germany to build up militarily.

Agree. While Britian and France where slowly rearming, Germany was rearming faster from a lower base. The balance of forces between the allies and Germany worsened during the appeasement period. Furthermore, Hitler having been proven correct was empowered within Germany. Also, Germany gained Austria & Czechoslovakia, indeed Czech weapons and factories where vital to the Nazi war machine. For instance, the 7th Panzer division during the battle of France was equipped with Czech tanks.

 

[Vitriol]

Agree. While Britian and France where slowly rearming, Germany was rearming faster from a lower base. The balance of forces between the allies and Germany worsened during the appeasement period. Furthermore, Hitler having been proven correct was empowered within Germany. Also, Germany gained Austria & Czechoslovakia, indeed Czech weapons and factories where vital to the Nazi war machine. For instance, the 7th Panzer division during the battle of France was equipped with Czech tanks.

38(T) was one of the best tanks of the war too imo. Germans were still using those little things with great effect even at the end of the war.