Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[wannabejack]

Are Furniture Tariffs the First Salvo in a Russia-China Trade War?

Just how strong is Russia's "no limits" relationship with China right now? That is the question posed by the Chinese furniture supply chain, furious that tariff

woodcentral.com.au

More than 90% of Russian lumber is traded to China; now, a new tariff—five times higher than those imposed on the EU—has made importing Chinese furniture parts non-competitive.

Just how strong is Russia’s “no limits” relationship with China right now? That is the question posed by the Chinese furniture supply chain, furious that tariffs on Russian-bound sliding rail components—accounting for 30% of kitchen and office furniture manufacturing costs—have skyrocketed from 0 to 55.65% (more than five times higher than tariffs on European furniture parts) over the past few weeks alone.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Are Furniture Tariffs the First Salvo in a Russia-China Trade War?

Just how strong is Russia's "no limits" relationship with China right now? That is the question posed by the Chinese furniture supply chain, furious that tariff

woodcentral.com.au

More than 90% of Russian lumber is traded to China; now, a new tariff—five times higher than those imposed on the EU—has made importing Chinese furniture parts non-competitive.

Just how strong is Russia’s “no limits” relationship with China right now? That is the question posed by the Chinese furniture supply chain, furious that tariffs on Russian-bound sliding rail components—accounting for 30% of kitchen and office furniture manufacturing costs—have skyrocketed from 0 to 55.65% (more than five times higher than tariffs on European furniture parts) over the past few weeks alone.

China won't take this lying down.
Russia will pay a price.

 

[Zidane98]

It's a one way relationship these days between Russia-China where Putin is Xi's bitch. If the cheap gas & oil dry up Xi will drop Putin completely.

The irony is enormous as the biggest actual threat to Russia is nuclear China allied with North Korea who could eaaily annex Vladivostok oblast right now if they felt like it.

 

[jatz14]

China won't take this lying down.
Russia will pay a price.

The thing is, and Trumpies take note here.

This tariff is far worse for Russia than China.

Trumpers would have you believe this should be a shot in the arm for Russia furniture manufacturers.

But they are the people importing the sliders. So Russian made furniture is now more expensive because a key imported component is now tarrifed.

But Chinese manufacturers aren't paying a tariff, so the price of Russian manufacturers main competition, Chinese made furniture, stays the same.

Already reports that Russia furniture producers will go out of business because of this.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

The Washington Post: Ukraine helped Syrian rebels by supplying drones and providing ''other support'' - Euromaidan Press

Ukraine's covert operation highlights how Kyiv is taking its fight against Russian influence global.

euromaidanpress.com

As reported by The Washington Post, Ukrainian military intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group based there, the knowledgeable sources said.

The aid from Kyiv played only a modest role in overthrowing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western intelligence sources believe. But it was notable as part of a broader Ukrainian effort to strike covertly at Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa and inside Russia itself.

 

[wannabejack]

Spotlight shone on the Ukrainian airborne soldiers who fought their way into Kursk

BFBS reporters Simon Newton and Hannah King meet Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline, including one who shot down a Russian helicopter.

www.forcesnews.com

"We will be tired when we win. The entire staff believe the same. Right now, we don't have time to be tired."

 

[barreness]

The Book | Vatnik Soup

#vatniksoup is a Twitter thread series (and a hashtag!) where I’ll introduce pro-Russian actors and propagandists from around the world, be they so-called “independent journalists”, politicians, military personnel or just regular grifters looking to make some easy money.

vatniksoup.com

Russian agents have always lied. They lied in the past. They are lying now. Times are changing, Russian lies are not. Surprisingly, in today’s fast-paced and transparent world of digital technologies, it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish lies and disinformation from the truth. Especially when it is your eternal enemy who spreads this manipulation and who has reached great heights in the art of manipulation over a century of such activity.

It's cool and based when the US does it, re-doing elections when Russia does it is peak democracy etc

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
But while the gains of the orange-bedecked "chestnut revolution" are Ukraine's, the campaign is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavoury regimes.

Funded and organised by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organisations, the campaign was first used in Europe in Belgrade in 2000 to beat Slobodan Milosevic at the ballot box.

 

[wannabejack]

It's cool and based when the US does it, re-doing elections when Russia does it is peak democracy etc

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
But while the gains of the orange-bedecked "chestnut revolution" are Ukraine's, the campaign is an American creation, a sophisticated and brilliantly conceived exercise in western branding and mass marketing that, in four countries in four years, has been used to try to salvage rigged elections and topple unsavoury regimes.

Funded and organised by the US government, deploying US consultancies, pollsters, diplomats, the two big American parties and US non-government organisations, the campaign was first used in Europe in Belgrade in 2000 to beat Slobodan Milosevic at the ballot box.

I don’t think the book is so much about rigging elections
A main focus of the book is on individuals who are promoted and funded by russia. Their accounts have an ardent following and they can spread a false message extremely quickly online.

I was pushing the point that russia is an eternal enemy to many countries and that russia can not be trusted because of a long history of lies.

 

[barreness]

I don’t think the book is so much about rigging elections

Yeh fairo, I think I was converging a post of yours and the Romanian election

A main focus of the book is on individuals who are promoted and funded by russia. Their accounts have an ardent following and they can spread a false message extremely quickly online.

This would be true of the global hegemon too, no?

Social media has somewhat democratised the spreading of propaganda, it always existed but was in the hands of the more powerful

I was pushing the point that russia is an eternal enemy to many countries and that russia can not be trusted because of a long history of lies.

Why though?

Most of the countries were a part of the Russian Empire or a SSR over the last several hundred years. Should the parts of Ukraine under the polish lithuanian commonwealth or the austrio hungarian empire consider them(or their modern successor states) eternal enemies?

How many wars did Britain and France have historically, or France and Germany more recently. Russia fought with the allies in both world wars yet they fought against them in their civil war in between

 

[wannabejack]

...

This would be true of the global hegemon too, no?

Social media has somewhat democratised the spreading of propaganda, it always existed but was in the hands of the more powerful
...

"This would be true of the global hegemon too". Yes. The book focuses on russia.

Aug 20, 2020

‘Rigged’ details long history of Russian and U.S. electoral interference

Historian David Shimer ’18 B.A., M.A. discusses the sordid history of foreign election meddling, and how a Yale education made his new book possible.

news.yale.edu

Russian hackers and internet trolls sought to manipulate American voters throughout the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, as they are doing again in 2020. Their efforts represent the latest chapter in a 100-year history of secret operations by the Soviet Union’s KGB, Russia under Vladimir Putin, and the CIA to influence electoral outcomes in foreign countries.

 

[wannabejack]

....

Why though?

Most of the countries were a part of the Russian Empire or a SSR over the last several hundred years. Should the parts of Ukraine under the polish lithuanian commonwealth or the austrio hungarian empire consider them(or their modern successor states) eternal enemies?

How many wars did Britain and France have historically, or France and Germany more recently. Russia fought with the allies in both world wars yet they fought against them in their civil war in between

eternal: lasting or existing forever; without end

Ukraine (cossacks) have been in conflict with russia (Moscow) since the 1600’s. They are in conflict today.
Ukraine are not in conflict with Poland or Lithuanian or Austria or Hungary today.
Britain, France, Germany are not in conflict today.

 

[IlovethePies]

Those who think that the US and NATO are somehow locked in a battle with Russia over questions of "freedom and democracy", need to take the wool out of their eyes:

"The war in Ukraine is also a battle for raw materials. The country has large deposits of iron, titanium and lithium, some of which are now controlled by Russia.” That’s what the federally owned German foreign trade agency Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) reported on its website on January 16 2023 under the title “Ukraine’s raw materials wealth at risk.”

Lithium is white gold for transition to new transport and energy technologies.

In a September 2022 article titled “Ukraine’s Titanium Can Armor the West,” the transatlantic think tank Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) wrote: “Support for Ukraine has been driven by strategic concerns and moral-political values. But long-term Western help should also be based on solid material interests.”

Control of Ukraine means access to vast supplies of critical minerals (lithium and titanium) present in Ukraine. Lithium is concentrated in the Donetz region.

Putin and the US/NATO coalition both view Ukraine as a profit bonanza for their respective capitalist oligarchies.

"Freedom, democracy, Ukrainian independence" are all a smokescreen behind which the US and NATO are concealing their predatory interests.

 

[Chief]

Yes it certainly is. Why would Russia be the better overlord for your average Ukrainian?

 

[IlovethePies]

Yes it certainly is. Why would Russia be the better overlord for your average Ukrainian?

But that is precisely the point.

No capitalist oligarchy has the right to be the overlord.

The Ukrainian and Russian working class need to unite on the basis of a socialist internationalist program, and overthrow both the Russian and the Ukrainian capitalist class.

The allies of the Ukrainian and Russian working class are the European working class and the US working class.

The vast technological advances of mankind, and the vast wealth of society, currently monopolised by a parasitic and infinitesmally thin layer of society, needs to be made available for social need. This can only be done when the working class takes political power and expropriates the capitalist oligarchs of every nationality.

I am opposed to the Putin regime just as much as I am to the Zelensky regime. They are both political representatives of predatory capitalist oligarchies, whose stranglehold on wealth must be broken by the unification of the Russian and Ukrainian working class.

 

[Chief]

No capitalist oligarchy has the right to be the overlord.

But let's be realistic. They don't have the strength to defend themselves against Russia. They unwisely trusted Russia would stick to treaties - Putin never has.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

But that is precisely the point.

No capitalist oligarchy has the right to be the overlord.

The Ukrainian and Russian working class need to unite on the basis of a socialist internationalist program, and overthrow both the Russian and the Ukrainian capitalist class.

The allies of the Ukrainian and Russian working class are the European working class and the US working class.

The vast technological advances of mankind, and the vast wealth of society, currently monopolised by a parasitic and infinitesmally thin layer of society, needs to be made available for social need. This can only be done when the working class takes political power and expropriates the capitalist oligarchs of every nationality.

I am opposed to the Putin regime just as much as I am to the Zelensky regime. They are both political representatives of predatory capitalist oligarchies, whose stranglehold on wealth must be broken by the unification of the Russian and Ukrainian working class.

After the outcome of the last big revolution, you really think they want to go down that path again?

 

[IlovethePies]

After the outcome of the last big revolution, you really think they want to go down that path again?

This is a great question, but to discuss it definitely requires another thread. Let me just say here that historically in Russia just after the October revolution there was an alternative to Stalinism, and if this alternative had won, we would be living in a totally different world today - a world without war, without starvation, and the issue of climate change would be being addressed in an international and rational manner, to name just a few differences.

 

[Carringbush2010]

No capitalist oligarchy has the right to be the overlord.

NO ONE has the right to be an (oppressive) 'overlord'.

Key point 'oppressive', whether it is a capitalist, socialist, communist 'overlord' doesn't matter.

There has to be hierarchy, to maintain societal / communal order (avoid anarchy -read chaos) Liberal capitalist democracies by and large (yes with faults) do a better job of maintaining societal order at the same time allowing ALL citizens of those societies very liberal freedoms (allow them to do what they want - within reason), then any other.

You have a hankering of some sort of working class uprising to defeat the 'ruling' class because all of the ruling classes regardless of their societal background i:e capitalist or socialist or whatever, are 'oppressive overlords', in some vain hope it will be some sort of panacea to societal problems.

This is your flaw in thinking, as long as humans exist, you'll find your 'victorious working class' will have their own disagreements on the how of the hierarchy and therefore will have flaws when they claim hierarchy and kick out the oligarchs. They'll have their own flaws.

This why societal models have faults, not because those models have design faults, but because surprise surprise humans have self interest and are not in mindset lockstep with everyone else like you'd want them to be. We're sentient beings with differing opinions on myriads of how, what, when and why.

 

[Mobbs]

Key point 'oppressive', whether it is a capitalist, socialist, communist 'overlord' doesn't matter.

I think this is a really good point. I have a view that any form of society/governance can work: this is even includes an authoritarian or hell even a pure dictatorship, and definitely any of socialist, communist or capitalist worlds - however it all hinges on one thing - whoever's running the show needs to not be a psycho. Unfortunately, as you said, self-interest will always surface, and any form of governance or society will suffer from it. (Or they'll get overthrown by someone else with same result).

For the most part, it's generally accepted that someone has to run the show, and the only folks interested - are those with ... "interests".

To entirely exclude any form of hierarchy would essentially require a biological (genetic?) conversion of the species to a hive mind - impossible (at least at this point) and such miiiight experience some level of pushback! Or perhaps it could happen via the futurism concepts of "uploading" however I suspect there'd still be aspirations and conflict. Neither are on the table this millenium.

There's a fun if perhaps naive old fiction book called The Tallest Poppy where a rando average Joe with purely good intentions somehow won the post of Australian Prime Minister and tried to make absolutely selfless / non-partisan policies, leading to pretty much every world power losing their shit over the threat this posed to their own security. Everybody pulled out every stop to either eliminate the new PM or to weaponise him. I won't call it a robust story but it was effectual (being still in my head 30 years later is fair evidence of this).

My point is that a world where all oppression/conflict was eliminated, would merely be seen as open farmland for any new arrival keen to gain power.

 

[Seeds]

I think this is a really good point. I have a view that any form of society/governance can work: this is even includes an authoritarian or hell even a pure dictatorship, and definitely any of socialist, communist or capitalist worlds - however it all hinges on one thing - whoever's running the show needs to not be a psycho. Unfortunately, as you said, self-interest will always surface, and any form of governance or society will suffer from it. (Or they'll get overthrown by someone else with same result).

For the most part, it's generally accepted that someone has to run the show, and the only folks interested - are those with ... "interests".

To entirely exclude any form of hierarchy would essentially require a biological (genetic?) conversion of the species to a hive mind - impossible (at least at this point) and such miiiight experience some level of pushback! Or perhaps it could happen via the futurism concepts of "uploading" however I suspect there'd still be aspirations and conflict. Neither are on the table this millenium.

There's a fun if perhaps naive old fiction book called The Tallest Poppy where a rando average Joe with purely good intentions somehow won the post of Australian Prime Minister and tried to make absolutely selfless / non-partisan policies, leading to pretty much every world power losing their shit over the threat this posed to their own security. Everybody pulled out every stop to either eliminate the new PM or to weaponise him. I won't call it a robust story but it was effectual (being still in my head 30 years later is fair evidence of this).

My point is that a world where all oppression/conflict was eliminated, would merely be seen as open farmland for any new arrival keen to gain power.

A person running a communist society could be the smartest and most ethical person of all time, but no one person can understand all the wants/needs and ideas of its citizens which is what a communist leader needs to do in order to work out how to allocate resources. Gorbachev by most accounts was a fantastic leader. But he couldnt stop russia communism imploding.

The best political systems rely not on the whims and intelligence of leaders but in the strength, knowledge and fairness of its institutional frameworks. Democracies are the best not because they recruit the best leaders (they often dont) but because they usually put together the best institutions which usually reduce both the power and requirements upon leaders and utilise the collective knowledge of their citizens.

 

[Carringbush2010]

I think this is a really good point. I have a view that any form of society/governance can work: this is even includes an authoritarian or hell even a pure dictatorship, and definitely any of socialist, communist or capitalist worlds - however it all hinges on one thing - whoever's running the show needs to not be a psycho. Unfortunately, as you said, self-interest will always surface, and any form of governance or society will suffer from it. (Or they'll get overthrown by someone else with same result).

For the most part, it's generally accepted that someone has to run the show, and the only folks interested - are those with ... "interests".

To entirely exclude any form of hierarchy would essentially require a biological (genetic?) conversion of the species to a hive mind - impossible (at least at this point) and such miiiight experience some level of pushback! Or perhaps it could happen via the futurism concepts of "uploading" however I suspect there'd still be aspirations and conflict. Neither are on the table this millenium.

There's a fun if perhaps naive old fiction book called The Tallest Poppy where a rando average Joe with purely good intentions somehow won the post of Australian Prime Minister and tried to make absolutely selfless / non-partisan policies, leading to pretty much every world power losing their shit over the threat this posed to their own security. Everybody pulled out every stop to either eliminate the new PM or to weaponise him. I won't call it a robust story but it was effectual (being still in my head 30 years later is fair evidence of this).

My point is that a world where all oppression/conflict was eliminated, would merely be seen as open farmland for any new arrival keen to gain power.

Great post Mobbs

 

[IlovethePies]

^Seems like there is alot of interest here after all in what a socialist society would look like.

 

[Zidane98]

^Seems like there is alot of interest here after all in what a socialist society would look like.

Maybe you should start a thread about it.

You're welcome to launch pro socialism protests in Australia too. Perhaps you could put on a sausage sizzle.

 

[wannabejack]

Maybe you should start a thread about it.

You're welcome to launch pro socialism protests in Australia too. Perhaps you could put on a sausage sizzle.

A Bunnings socialist sausage sizzle?

 

[IlovethePies]

Maybe you should start a thread about it.

You're welcome to launch pro socialism protests in Australia too. Perhaps you could put on a sausage sizzle.

No need. Those drawn to socialism think through their minds, unlike those who are not who think through their stomach.