List Mgmt. Bailey Smith officially nominates Geelong

[Zouz Kitty]

Now MFC have said Oliver is staying, how will Bulldogs react to the trade of Bailey?

If Geelong walks away + it’s’ see you next year? Will Dogs be motivated to accept the offer?

If Geelong increases Oliver offer, will Dogs be motivated to ask for more?

 

[Tony Barber]

Now MFC have said Oliver is staying, how will Bulldogs react to the trade of Bailey?

If Geelong walks away + it’s’ see you next year? Will Dogs be motivated to accept the offer?

If Geelong increases Oliver offer, will Dogs be motivated to ask for more?

I'd say the Smith trade has already been sorted.
The Bulldogs will want ammo to use during the trade period. So I dont see it taking long at all.

We dont have players on the table (as far as we know) so there's no point holding out to see if Geelong receive additional picks that can be used in negotiation.

And honestly it would be smart for Geelong to use the Rnd 1, and the future Rnd2 quickly.
That means our future 1st cant be traded.

And then Melbourne are snookered.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Love the analysis, but at the end of the day it’s irrelevant.

A deal will be done, both clubs know it. And fans of both clubs won’t like the terms, which probably means it’s fair.

Why do you think Geelong fans won't like the trade terms?

 

[D BRIDGE]

And what's the bet Hawthorn, still smarting over picking Mitch Thorpe back in 2006, wouldn't scoop him right up in that draft?

I doubt the Hawks are losing any sleep over Mitch Thorpe from 18 years ago.

They have won a million flags since then.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Why do you think Geelong fans won't like the trade terms?

Yeah. I'm thinking that this could be as pivotal as the Dangerfield and Cameron deals for our club.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Yeah. I'm thinking that this could be as pivotal as the Dangerfield and Cameron deals for our club.

I doubt it... Smith is ok but I think he is a bit overblown as a player here.

He should be a nice addition to the 22 offering good outside run... but not a make-or-break level player.

A fit Oliver would make a much bigger impact IMO.

But I ask "why does Reg Hickey think both clubs won't be happy with the trade?".

I wonder if he thinks Geelong will be offering up 2x R1's... We will never do that for Smith.

 

[Tony Barber]

I doubt it... Smith is ok but I think he is a bit overblown as a player here.

He should be a nice addition to the 22 offering good outside run... but not a make-or-break level player.

A fit Oliver would make a much bigger impact IMO.

But I ask "why does Reg Hickey think both clubs won't be happy with the trade?".

I wonder if he thinks Geelong will be offering up 2x R1's... We will never do that for Smith.

I'm flying blind here as I've previously said, I know zero about Smith.

But from looking at all of the conversation I dont think our Rnd 1 will cut it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Geelong's 2024 Rnd 1, 2025 Rnd 2, And the Bulldogs 2024 Rnd 3 coming back.

I dont even know if the clubs have those picks.
So...... grain of salt. In fact, thats me wearing a blindfold in darts and guessing I'll hit triple 20.

 

[cats_09]

I doubt it... Smith is ok but I think he is a bit overblown as a player here.

He should be a nice addition to the 22 offering good outside run... but not a make-or-break level player.

A fit Oliver would make a much bigger impact IMO.

But I ask "why does Reg Hickey think both clubs won't be happy with the trade?".

I wonder if he thinks Geelong will be offering up 2x R1's... We will never do that for Smith.

Bulldogs fans would love 2 x first round picks

 

[Strange Cat]

Bulldogs fans would love 2 x first round picks

It isn’t happening

 

[dangerwood]

 

[cats_09]

I'm flying blind here as I've previously said, I know zero about Smith.

But from looking at all of the conversation I dont think our Rnd 1 will cut it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something like Geelong's 2024 Rnd 1, 2025 Rnd 2, And the Bulldogs 2024 Rnd 3 coming back.

I dont even know if the clubs have those picks.
So...... grain of salt. In fact, thats me wearing a blindfold in darts and guessing I'll hit triple 20.

That's what I'm thinking the trade will end up about

I have zero doubt our 2024 first will be used - then we'll see a swap of later picks, just not sure if those will be 2024 or 2025 picks

 

[OzeSparky]

I doubt it... Smith is ok but I think he is a bit overblown as a player here.

He should be a nice addition to the 22 offering good outside run... but not a make-or-break level player.

A fit Oliver would make a much bigger impact IMO.

But I ask "why does Reg Hickey think both clubs won't be happy with the trade?".

I wonder if he thinks Geelong will be offering up 2x R1's... We will never do that for Smith.

Cause that’s what happens usually, both clubs whinge that’s the best we could do, and both clubs act unhappy.

If both clubs are acting unhappy it prob works out that it is a fair trade.

Like the J Cameron Trade.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Cause that’s what happens usually, both clubs whinge that’s the best we could do, and both clubs act unhappy.

If both clubs are acting unhappy it prob works out that it is a fair trade.

Like the J Cameron Trade.

I’m not sure I can recall anytime when a club has ever come out and said “we are not happy” after a trade.

It’s normally the exact opposite.

 

[OzeSparky]

I’m not sure I can recall anytime when a club has ever come out and said “we are not happy” after a trade.

It’s normally the exact opposite.

I should add supporters in there.

 

[My Tilly]

I doubt it... Smith is ok but I think he is a bit overblown as a player here.

He should be a nice addition to the 22 offering good outside run... but not a make-or-break level player.

A fit Oliver would make a much bigger impact IMO.

But I ask "why does Reg Hickey think both clubs won't be happy with the trade?".

I wonder if he thinks Geelong will be offering up 2x R1's... We will never do that for Smith.

I think you are remembering his most recent season and forgetting what he's like when up and about and in form. A bit similar to Jeremy Cameron when a few people were worried we paid a bit too much after a disappointing final year at the Giants.

Smith has the potential (based on exposed form) to become one of the premier players in the competition. Just envision how dynamic he and Holmes would be on the bigger grounds.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Im thinking Zouz Kitty

I did reply to you with a meme + deleted it, as I promised cats_09
Geelong_Sicko laughed, but you know, ‘Sicko’
Other guys ignored it, as the meme compared a pic to a cat bringing a dead mouse Too confronting to their #1 organ?


Obviously a big flop

 

[Zouz Kitty]

They genuinely don't understand that at all - all I've been reading from them over the past month is "**** Smith and Geelong, reject all offers and walk him to the PSD"

A couple of things they don't seem to understand:

• if the Bulldogs put a brick wall and will not even come to the negotiating table, both the AFL & AFLPA will step in with mediation as their priority will be Bailey Smith and his future, to ensure that he's not getting used as a pawn
• if a trade doesn't eventuate, Smith will simply nominate for the ND, set the terms of his contract and he'll get through to Geelong's first pick

On the second point, some Bulldogs fans are arguing that because the apparent contract offer from Geelong to Bailey is on the lower side, it won't stop other teams from poaching him first - I'm pretty sure that if he was to nominate for the ND, he could set his own terms different to what the current contract from Geelong is and so that he may instead front load his contract with an amount that it's known Geelong can cover in his cap for the next year or two but is unlikely other teams will be keeping free hoping the trade falls through

Also, as much as some keep saying "He won't make it past pick 3", or "Richmond, Hawthorn or St Kilda will use one of their top 10 picks on him - and Hawthorn hasn't given up hope..." - like seriously, no one is going to use a top 10 ND pick, let alone a top 3 pick on an experienced player who they know doesn't want to play for their club, it would be the end of the list managers job

And if he put's a price on his head, this may be where instead of the deal being say $700k/$800k over 5 years, it's suddenly $1.3million for 2 seasons - not sure too many teams are keeping that sort of change spare in their cap as a just in case situation

Excellent analysis cats09, was struggling to understand the trade, cause you know, zero knowledge of trading ‘stuff’. Your assessment has clarified the trade for me, thank you.

Would front loading his contract + asking for $1.3m for 2 seasons deter oppo teams? Then, if selected by Geelong, he will accept the $700k/$800k* for five years?

Regarding experienced players wanting to play for a new club. Is there any type of honour/respect/agreement between teams at trade time? We’d like player A, you’d like player S, we’ll agree to your trade if you agree to our trade? Not meaning new, young players.

*Plus the farm?

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Last image, watch the video

 

[Zouz Kitty]

 

[Zouz Kitty]

This is IT for me!
Fallen in love with Bazlenka
Just get him to Geelong!!!

 

[OzeSparky]

Last image, watch the video

Sprayed the kick. 3rd round pick at best now.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Excellent analysis cats09, was struggling to understand the trade, cause you know, zero knowledge of trading ‘stuff’. Your assessment has clarified the trade for me, thank you.

Would front loading his contract + asking for $1.3m for 2 seasons deter oppo teams? Then, if selected by Geelong, he will accept the $700k/$800k* for five years?

Regarding experienced players wanting to play for a new club. Is there any type of honour/respect/agreement between teams at trade time? We’d like player A, you’d like player S, we’ll agree to your trade if you agree to our trade? Not meaning new, young players.

*Plus the farm?

There's zero % chance he ends up in the draft. Bulldogs won't turn down a ballpark fair trade in favour of making a statement for no return.

Part of why it wouldn't work is that when you look at the clubs that would benefit from bringing him in through the draft, it's mostly not teams that are rebuilding and it's not teams whose midfield is set. I think you can rule out every top 8 team from even considering it.

I think there's only 6 clubs who would even bother to listen to the pitch based on club needs and they are: Pies, Bombers, Saints, Crows, Dees.

Dees would shut it down pretty quickly given their recent history with players with off field baggage.

Crows might like it in principle but would see bringing him interstate as too big a risk. They would never convince him to willingly move to a smaller market for his off field work and so they'll basically be taking him hostage and I don't think they'd want to bring that controversy in.

Bombers would like him on field but as with the Dees I think they'll assess the off field risks and say it's not worth their first rounder to take a player hostage.

Pies the only real question mark here because he has been linked to them by people reading way too much into insta. The Pies would need to talk him into it and the pies would need to find a first rounder before ours. Some have suggested that they get the suns pick in the noble deal but I don't see it. Noble isn't worth anything like that, and suggestions saying Noble will be steak knives to a pick swap for points ignore the fact that the suns already have a ton of picks.

For those reasons I think odds on in the ND he gets to us which is why a deal gets done.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Sprayed the kick. 3rd round pick at best now.

Yeah right foot nailed if but the left was a bad shank. I think he'll be really good for us

 

[rapidfire7]

The most drawn out and over done trade story in history and he has only just nominated. Sigh.

 

[MacStradbroke]

We know it's no shit a deal will be done & he won't end up in the ND

I don't know a Geelong fan who doesn't believe a deal will be done - we seem to understand that the two clubs will act as professionals and a deal will be done

I'm pretty sure that Geelong fans also agree the deal won't be 2 x first round picks plus a player like SDK, Holmes etc

For a good number of Bulldogs fans, that's the minimum they are pushing for the club to accept in a trade, and I've genuinely never read so many comments where they flat out refuse to consider a trade and want him to end up in the draft


Once a trade deal is agreed to, we may see some Geelong fans kick up bit of a stink as I think we understand it's going to take a bit more than simply our first round pick alone, Bulldogs fans may need professional help such will be the levels of their meltdowns upon realisation that Smith isn't going to be part of the biggest trade in history

They’d be the same supporters who kicked up a stink when we ‘overpaid’ for Danger and Cameron