Big Fish ?...Hawthorn trade news and targets thread(not for trade hypotheticals)

[Billyc]

Ty Vickery may also come into calculations after a difficult debut season at Waverley Park, but it may take giving up someone of the calibre of Jack Gunston or Luke Breust for Hawthorn to make a major play.

Thoughts ?

It would have come up by now if we were shopping a big name.

I can't see us turning around half way through the trade period and asking who wants Gunston.

Hartung, Whitecross, Hodge, maybe Puopolo. Hard to see us getting much more done with minimal bargaining chips on the table unless Fagan does us a solid.

 

[tige19]

Interesting day ahead, hopefully some news on Schache so we can either move on or get prepared for a tilt for him

 

[CD Xbow]

Ty Vickery may also come into calculations after a difficult debut season at Waverley Park, but it may take giving up someone of the calibre of Jack Gunston or Luke Breust for Hawthorn to make a major play.

Thoughts ?

Why would anyone want to trade Jack? For what? It must be something to do with being spring, suddenly the grass in the other paddock seems greener.

 

[Furn2]

a pretty good breakdown of draft picks value here.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

some interesting stats for example only 1 in 4 picks from 6-10 will play 200 games and only 1 in 29 picks from 21-30 will be AA.

 

[RutegerJones]

I know it's from a noted flog, but still, it's interesting.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I know it's from a noted flog, but still, it's interesting.

So that means we are definitely done trading for players then.

 

[Great 2008]

Thats whats confusing. make something up yourself in here it gets deleted. Repeat some absolute crap a nif nuf has posted somewhere and its legit.

Or post...' I heard from someone close to the club that ........', to justify your hypothetical post. This thread is a navigation nightmare. Finding a legit tidbit is hard. Interesting time of the year though. A real love hate relationship the trade period for mine.

 

[Death Cab]

a pretty good breakdown of draft picks value here.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison

some interesting stats for example only 1 in 4 picks from 6-10 will play 200 games and only 1 in 29 picks from 21-30 will be AA.

Very interesting break down.

- Picks 5-20 have a high failure rate but still better than 20+
- Almost no difference between picks 20-30 and 30-50. That is most drafts have a bunch of talent in this range, but it's very hard to sort the wheat from the chaff as 17 year olds.
- Picks 50 plus is very speculative. Complete crap shoot (unless you've got GW!)

The lessons for us:
- If you can't crack a top 20 pick, you may as well settle for picks 40 and 45 rather than getting too worried about trying to land pick 22 etc.
- Trade picks 50 plus at will. Makes no difference.

Essentially what GW did to get Impey.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Hawker55]

I've been saying this in other threads in the Drafts board. The average poster is still assigning value to the pick because of the number rather than the statistics or historical record for that pick. Statistically most picks are a bust, so unless you have a clear target in mind then trading is the way to go - that way you get known value vs unknown value (pick).

Also another poster on here wondered if we would have taken Impey instead of Hartung in that draft if he'd been available (went 4 picks ahead of Billy) - would explain why we are so keen on him.

 

[Davo-27]

Very interesting break down.

- Picks 5-20 have a high failure rate but still better than 20+
- Almost no difference between picks 20-30 and 30-50. That is most drafts have a bunch of talent in this range, but it's very hard to sort the wheat from the chaff as 17 year olds.
- Picks 50 plus is very speculative. Complete crap shoot (unless you've got GW!)

The lessons for us:
- If you can't crack a top 20 pick, you may as well settle for picks 40 and 45 rather than getting too worried about trying to land pick 22 etc.
- Trade picks 50 plus at will. Makes no difference.

Essentially what GW did to get Impey.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

some of these 20-50 stats are a bit wonky as father sons like Garry Ablett Jnr, Matthew Scarlett ect were picked up and rookie upgrades that mess with the stats a bit

 

[Gralin]

I've been saying this in other threads in the Drafts board. The average poster is still assigning value to the pick because of the number rather than the statistics or historical record for that pick. Statistically most picks are a bust, so unless you have a clear target in mind then trading is the way to go - that way you get known value vs unknown value (pick).

Also another poster on here wondered if we would have taken Impey instead of Hartung in that draft if he'd been available (went 4 picks ahead of Billy) - would explain why we are so keen on him.

It's the mystery box gamble.
People are assigning the Brian Lake was drafted in the 70s, Nat Fyfe in the 20s type value to picks.

Picks are hope of the unknown, players from other clubs meh you think you know what you are getting

I'm glad the club doesn't worry about outside opinion on player and pick value

 

[Pessimistic]

Theres eems to be some intangible that if you get four or five draftees in the one year, they progress better overall than one or two

I think I see a trend of Hawks doing this every third year, the last being 2015. the strategy has to mesh with other strategies, but i think its there

 

[Steven Tyler]

If
you think Clarko is going to be quiet before 2pm next Thursday ...

then
you don't know Clarko. Stringer and Schache will probably get calls. And others. Look out.

 

[Luv_our_club]

Theres eems to be some intangible that if you get four or five draftees in the one year, they progress better overall than one or two

I think I see a trend of Hawks doing this every third year, the last being 2015. the strategy has to mesh with other strategies, but i think its there

I have noticed this too. I tried to pin it down to a clear cycle in drafting/trading strategy but I couldn't find the consistency there to support managerial intent, but there was something-something.

 

[wizzard400]

I know it's from a noted flog, but still, it's interesting.

If the trade whisperer gets anything right this trade period then I will eat my own shit.


Hold me to it.

 

[Mrzohs]

It would have come up by now if we were shopping a big name.

I can't see us turning around half way through the trade period and asking who wants Gunston.

Hartung, Whitecross, Hodge, maybe Puopolo. Hard to see us getting much more done with minimal bargaining chips on the table unless Fagan does us a solid.

agree, but none of those players will get us to a higher position in the draft. hold on for the last minute.

 

[cyrilicious]

If the trade whisperer gets anything right this trade period then I will eat my own shit.
Hold me to it.

You will when we get SLOANEY!

 

[Beandip]

If the trade whisperer gets anything right this trade period then I will eat my own shit.
Hold me to it.

High risk...

 

[Ned Ryerson]

It's the mystery box gamble.
People are assigning the Brian Lake was drafted in the 70s, Nat Fyfe in the 20s type value to picks.

Picks are hope of the unknown, players from other clubs meh you think you know what you are getting

I'm glad the club doesn't worry about outside opinion on player and pick value

This is why I love the 'but pick X is worth Y' arguments people prattle on with.

As an example - Gold coast have picks 20, 23, 25, 36 and 38. Those picks add up in bidding points to just over 3,000 points - the same value as pick 1. If you were Brisbane would you really swap pick 1 for those 5 lower picks - if you weren't needing the multiple picks for bidding points?? I bloody doubt it.

Please note this is not a hypothetical per se - I am just pointing out the faulty logic people bring in here about point values relating to player trades as was being trotted out yesterday relating to Jarman. If you are not bidding then the point values are absolutely meaningless.

 

[List Manager]

If
you think Clarko is going to be quiet before 2pm next Thursday ...

then
you don't know Clarko. Stringer and Schache will probably get calls. And others. Look out.

Schache....Really...who would have thought....

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Is it wrong that I want to land Stringer purely because it would make * and Geelong fans melt and cry?

No, that's not wrong in the slightest

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Is it wrong that I want to land Stringer purely because it would make * and Geelong fans melt and cry?

No, that's not wrong in the slightest

He’s at least the right age profile. Can’t see Jeff signing off on it though.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

He’s at least the right age profile. Can’t see Jeff signing off on it though.

I'm sure he hired Buddy's minder back in the day. He'd have the rolodex ready to get one in again.

 

[Hawker55]

This is why I love the 'but pick X is worth Y' arguments people prattle on with.

As an example - Gold coast have picks 20, 23, 25, 36 and 38. Those picks add up in bidding points to just over 3,000 points - the same value as pick 1. If you were Brisbane would you really swap pick 1 for those 5 lower picks - if you weren't needing the multiple picks for bidding points?? I bloody doubt it.

Please note this is not a hypothetical per se - I am just pointing out the faulty logic people bring in here about point values relating to player trades as was being trotted out yesterday relating to Jarman. If you are not bidding then the point values are absolutely meaningless.

This is a very good point. Picks are worth different things to different clubs. A top 5 pick isn't as useful to a club that's in the Premiership window and coming off a top 4 place as it is to say a club in the bottom 4 - the former will be looking for role players to combat the few deficiencies it has while the latter will most likely have a heap of deficiencies and take the best available player at that pick. That's not to say the higher club wouldn't take the pick, just that they have less need for it compared to the lower club.

To use a Hawks example, we could waste a high(er) pick on Dayle Garlett since we knew we had talent coming through, while someone like Melbourne at that time wouldn't take the risk.

 

[Davo23]

If the trade whisperer gets anything right this trade period then I will eat my own shit.


Hold me to it.

Eat lots of fruit first.