Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[katmanblue]

For Carlton, right?

Just with the day we've had, I'm not sure of anything any more...

Don't even put that thought into world.

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[WalshYouLegend]

Maybe this is Austin’s play:

Carlton out: 12, 14, Owies, Kennedy, Young
West Coast out: Pick 3, Harley Reid.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Hit the draft.

Pick 12 - Travaglia
Pick 14 - Trainor / Hotton / Berry

 

[Beyond Blue]

Given West Coast now have an issue with getting Baker done, would they consider 3 for 12 and 14? Points calculator puts that in West Coast favour from a points perspective. In fact from points perspective they're still in favour if they throw in 63 with it. They then have 14 to give to the tigers for Baker.

Blues get 3 and 63.
West coast get 12 and Baker
Tigers get 14

Normally I’d be all for trading up to get to the top end of the draft but this year the draft is deep and even so I think it makes sense to have multiple picks.

 

[Warsaw]

Impressed that there does seem to be a vision, even if it might go against contemporary wisdom.

These aren't moves you make, or think about making if you're risk averse.

 

[Manhattanite]

From what I've heard, the media is omitting parts of the pies offers. Noble + F1 + F2 for 13 and 23 (23 could become 24 or 32 depending on the Rioli trade). The 13 + 23* pick + Richards for Houston and future change.

This really is an all out strategy. Collingwood have a massive age gap in their list, and having already brought in 1 HBF on 900k trading that much capital for another is a real win now mentality. Yet how does that look when they need to refresh in a couple of years whilst competing with the compromised Tasmanian drafts?

Let’s not forget what 43 said the other day - Collingwood in fact do have the best offer on the table to both the Suns and Port. So I wouldn’t get our hopes too much on Houston.

I also don’t think we should be paying close to a million for a second KPD so not as keen on Barrass or SDK at that price. I think a B grade KPF would suffice.

Lots to play out but I do have faith in the list management team so if go with picks 12 and 14 or downgrade one of those or combine those I don’t mind.


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[Manhattanite]

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From someone very close to broadie. Broadie Kemp will likely play rd tall forward next year.

This also makes sense given in the Nick Haynes interview upon joining the club he said he had a chat with Vossy who told him he would be playing as our second tall and then Haynes threw out four names he would be playing with and Kemp wasn’t one of them.




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[Worm4]

Love a bit of good drafting capital. Just look at the worst case scenario, and then think how good is our situation. Can go a number of ways and it wouldn't bother most people which way they choose .

 

[djw1952]

Hmmmm. Not sure about that

Hey Soapy......is Grainger-Barras the salary cap dump player that you were not allowed to mention or what?!!

 

[Manhattanite]

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Hey Soapy......is Grainger-Barras the salary cap dump player that you were not allowed to mention or what?!!

Can’t be he is out of contract and likely going to be delisted


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[Manhattanite]

Pick 3 does seem appealing considering who the top 4 are projected to be on ESPN (excluding Ashcroft and Lombard):


1. Jagga Smith

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro

MID, 181cm

National Champs: 4 games, 29.3 disposals, 6.8 clearances, 4.8 marks

Talent League: 12 games, 33.8 disposals, 7.9 clearances, 0.6 goals

Jagga did his pick 1 chances no harm with a solid combine weekend, posting a 3.038 second 20m sprint and 6:27 minute 2km time trial. He's the 'can't miss' prospect of the draft, a creative on-baller with the ability to rack up huge numbers through work rate and clean skills. He already looked at home against the bigger bodies, averaging 27 disposals and six clearances for Richmond VFL. Smith's professionalism and leadership stand out, making him a good cultural fit for rebuilding sides.

Best traits similar to: Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

24

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

2. Sid Draper (2)

South Adelaide/South Australia

MID, 182cm

2024 Champs: 4 games, 21.0 disposals, 3.8 clearances, 2.8 marks

SANFL: 6 games, 22.2 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 6.2 tackles

Draper didn't test at the combine with a minor back complaint, but met with a host of clubs on the weekend. His stoppage craft and ability to hurt the opposition in space makes Draper a safe prospect with a huge ceiling. Recruiters rave about his professionalism and he's as likely as any prospect to captain an AFL club. Draper's draft range is locked into the top 10 after impressive performances at SANFL level, proving the Panthers' best midfielder against tough opposition.

Best traits similar to: Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

4. Finn O'Sullivan (4)

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Country

MID, 182cm

National Champs: 2 games, 11.5 disposals, 1.5 marks, 3.5 tackles

Talent League: 4 games, 17.2 disposals, 3.0 clearances, 1.2 goals

No midfielder at the top of the crop quite has the athletic profile of O'Sullivan, which was confirmed at the combine with elite results in agility and both vertical jumping tests. He's a brilliant aerialist for his size and glides across the ground with a bounding gait. Through injury and form slumps he's struggled to attain any consistency, but O'Sullivan remains a pick 1 chance and offers one of the highest upsides in the pool.

Best traits similar to: Heeney


6. Sam Lalor (6)

GWV Rebels/Vic Country

MID/FWD, 187cm

National Champs: 3 games, 11.0 disposals, 5.0 marks, 1.3 goals

Talent League: 4 games, 23.0 disposals, 6.2 clearances, 5.8 marks

Lalor is firmly in the mix for Richmond's pick 1. The powerful midfielder models his game on Dustin Martin and Jordan De Goey

2

Jordan De Goey

Age

28

Ht

188cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.7

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

3.1

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

15.8

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

2.3

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

, and boasts similar burst and strength with his strong hips and fend off. A serious hamstring injury curtailed the end to his season and he didn't test at the combine. Lalor's brilliant contested marking and damaging disposal has kept him firmly in the first pick frame.

Best traits similar to: Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

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[katmanblue]

Love a bit of good drafting capital. Just look at the worst case scenario, and then think how good is our situation. Can go a number of ways and it wouldn't bother most people which way they choose .

Worst case is going all in on get pick 3 then picking a dud. I'd rather we don't do that.

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[SpiritOfCarlton]

Pick 3 does seem appealing considering who the top 4 are projected to be on ESPN (excluding Ashcroft and Lombard):


1. Jagga Smith

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro

MID, 181cm

National Champs: 4 games, 29.3 disposals, 6.8 clearances, 4.8 marks

Talent League: 12 games, 33.8 disposals, 7.9 clearances, 0.6 goals

Jagga did his pick 1 chances no harm with a solid combine weekend, posting a 3.038 second 20m sprint and 6:27 minute 2km time trial. He's the 'can't miss' prospect of the draft, a creative on-baller with the ability to rack up huge numbers through work rate and clean skills. He already looked at home against the bigger bodies, averaging 27 disposals and six clearances for Richmond VFL. Smith's professionalism and leadership stand out, making him a good cultural fit for rebuilding sides.

Best traits similar to: Zak Butters


2. Sid Draper (2)

South Adelaide/South Australia

MID, 182cm

2024 Champs: 4 games, 21.0 disposals, 3.8 clearances, 2.8 marks

SANFL: 6 games, 22.2 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 6.2 tackles

Draper didn't test at the combine with a minor back complaint, but met with a host of clubs on the weekend. His stoppage craft and ability to hurt the opposition in space makes Draper a safe prospect with a huge ceiling. Recruiters rave about his professionalism and he's as likely as any prospect to captain an AFL club. Draper's draft range is locked into the top 10 after impressive performances at SANFL level, proving the Panthers' best midfielder against tough opposition.

Best traits similar to: Chad Warner


4. Finn O'Sullivan (4)

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Country

MID, 182cm

National Champs: 2 games, 11.5 disposals, 1.5 marks, 3.5 tackles

Talent League: 4 games, 17.2 disposals, 3.0 clearances, 1.2 goals

No midfielder at the top of the crop quite has the athletic profile of O'Sullivan, which was confirmed at the combine with elite results in agility and both vertical jumping tests. He's a brilliant aerialist for his size and glides across the ground with a bounding gait. Through injury and form slumps he's struggled to attain any consistency, but O'Sullivan remains a pick 1 chance and offers one of the highest upsides in the pool.

Best traits similar to: Heeney


6. Sam Lalor (6)

GWV Rebels/Vic Country

MID/FWD, 187cm

National Champs: 3 games, 11.0 disposals, 5.0 marks, 1.3 goals

Talent League: 4 games, 23.0 disposals, 6.2 clearances, 5.8 marks

Lalor is firmly in the mix for Richmond's pick 1. The powerful midfielder models his game on Dustin Martin and Jordan De Goey, and boasts similar burst and strength with his strong hips and fend off. A serious hamstring injury curtailed the end to his season and he didn't test at the combine. Lalor's brilliant contested marking and damaging disposal has kept him firmly in the first pick frame.

Best traits similar to: Christian Petracca








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Paddy Dow Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"

central.rookieme.com

From there:

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"
Leagues: AFL U18 Championships, Coates Talent League Boys
OVERVIEW
Paddy Dow is one of if not the most all-round complete packages in the 2017 draft crop. Along with Andrew Brayshaw, Dow arguably has the most boxes ticked and it is no surprises why he is in contention for the number one pick. Dow is powerful, a classy mover, has great vision, loves the contested side of football and has a scoreboard impact, mostly setting up others when going inside 50. To find a weakness for Dow is very difficult, however if you had to pick an improvement, it would be his kicking under pressure. His kicking when given time and space is fantastic, and averaging 58 per cent as an inside midfielder is not too bad at all. As a whole, Dow is a really good prospect who will flourish in the elite system.
STRENGTHS

• Powerful
• Classy
• Contested work
• Vision
• Scoreboard impact

Dow has plenty of strings to his bow with the inside midfielder winning 51 per cent of his possessions at the coal face. Despite winning most of his possessions on the inside, Dow has a touch of class about the way he wins it and moves through a stoppage. He has fantastic vision and just thinks through each contest and some of his highlights are up there with the best players in the draft crop. In one instant in his last TAC Cup game for the season, Dow was playing Gippsland Power and he cleanly won the ball at half-back, fired off a handball to a teammate, received the 1-2 back, split through three opposing players using his burst speed and then hit up a target at half-forward.
The way he takes the game on and backs himself to hit targets is a feature of the way he plays and despite being that inside bull, he has that outside presence which hurts opposing teams. While he does not kick a heap of goals himself, he averaged two score assists per game in the TAC Cup and with six inside 50s, Dow makes any team he is in look better with his delivery inside 50. It helps that he has fantastic vision and just sums up the situation well.

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Two very good prospects based on need is SO MUCH BETTER than one lottery prospect based on groupthink (top picks pay off a fair bit but they also fail, and tend to fail in a spectacular fashion). Having two picks in the need zone is so much more beneficial to our list right now.

We do not need another superstar, we have enough, we need a floor of very good players across the board.

12 and 14 will give us a much better shake at solving this than just a pick 3.

 

[SBYM]

Is Broadie Kemp one of Eddie McGuire's bastard offspring?

 

[SpiritOfCarlton]

Murphy, Gibbs and Kruezer are the classic argument here about how not to manage a list. (add Kennedy as a pick 4)

They were all good picks. But that is not enough.

After we got Kruezer we basically ignored the first round of the draft. That was the end of the list because there was not enough elite youth coming in.

You need to have double or triple dips into the first round at least every 3 or four years to refresh the list.

Thank goodness for 2015 with picks 1 10 and 12.

 

[The Bighouse]

Paddy Dow Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"

central.rookieme.com

From there:

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "Paddy Dow is one of the best players in the 2017 draft crop with his trademark burst speed and vision out of a stoppage among his top traits"
Leagues: AFL U18 Championships, Coates Talent League Boys
OVERVIEW
Paddy Dow is one of if not the most all-round complete packages in the 2017 draft crop. Along with Andrew Brayshaw, Dow arguably has the most boxes ticked and it is no surprises why he is in contention for the number one pick. Dow is powerful, a classy mover, has great vision, loves the contested side of football and has a scoreboard impact, mostly setting up others when going inside 50. To find a weakness for Dow is very difficult, however if you had to pick an improvement, it would be his kicking under pressure. His kicking when given time and space is fantastic, and averaging 58 per cent as an inside midfielder is not too bad at all. As a whole, Dow is a really good prospect who will flourish in the elite system.
STRENGTHS

• Powerful
• Classy
• Contested work
• Vision
• Scoreboard impact

Dow has plenty of strings to his bow with the inside midfielder winning 51 per cent of his possessions at the coal face. Despite winning most of his possessions on the inside, Dow has a touch of class about the way he wins it and moves through a stoppage. He has fantastic vision and just thinks through each contest and some of his highlights are up there with the best players in the draft crop. In one instant in his last TAC Cup game for the season, Dow was playing Gippsland Power and he cleanly won the ball at half-back, fired off a handball to a teammate, received the 1-2 back, split through three opposing players using his burst speed and then hit up a target at half-forward.
The way he takes the game on and backs himself to hit targets is a feature of the way he plays and despite being that inside bull, he has that outside presence which hurts opposing teams. While he does not kick a heap of goals himself, he averaged two score assists per game in the TAC Cup and with six inside 50s, Dow makes any team he is in look better with his delivery inside 50. It helps that he has fantastic vision and just sums up the situation well.

Paddy WOW

 

[Worm4]

Worst case is going all in on get pick 3 then picking a dud. I'd rather we don't do that.

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Don't think there is a Kris Massie or a luke Livingstone amongst this lot of high end picks and most scouts know this these days apart from Collingwood who have had to rely on NGA and F/S and have missed every other high pick from the past decade or so apart from DeGoey . Probably why they keep trying to top up

 

[Danog]

Sorry for intruding.

Based on all the current situation/chats, aren't Carlton a bit low on picks/points to match bids on the Campo twins? Would Carlton entertain something like...

14 for 20, 44, 51. Gives an extra ~400 points for matching those bids, and keeps Carlton inside that super valuable top 25 picks or so.

 

[RPCB]

Don't think there is a Kris Massie or a luke Livingstone amongst this lot of high end picks and most scouts know this these days apart from Collingwood who have had to rely on NGA and F/S and have missed every other high pick from the past decade or so apart from DeGoey . Probably why they keep trying to top up

Greatest ever AFL player from Sweden.

 

[Revenant1965]

Sorry for intruding.

Based on all the current situation/chats, aren't Carlton a bit low on picks/points to match bids on the Campo twins? Would Carlton entertain something like...

14 for 20, 44, 51. Gives an extra ~400 points for matching those bids, and keeps Carlton inside that super valuable top 25 picks or so.

No. General consensus here is that with various F/S and NGA bids, our later picks will move up, increasing their value, which should be enough. Worst case scenario is a slight points deficit which will see our first pick in next year's draft (a F2) move back a few spaces. If anything, we would move up (combining picks 12 and 14 for say WC 3). But that's probably not happening. But still more to play out

 

[Danog]

No. General consensus here is that with various F/S and NGA bids, our later picks will move up, increasing their value, which should be enough. Worst case scenario is a slight points deficit which will see our first pick in next year's draft (a F2) move back a few spaces. If anything, we would move up (combining picks 12 and 14 for say WC 3). But that's probably not happening. But still more to play out

Didn't you trade your F2 to Hawthorn?

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Didn't you trade your F2 to Hawthorn?

Picked up Brisbane’s F2

 

[Revenant1965]

Didn't you trade your F2 to Hawthorn?

And we got Brisbane's F2 and 73 with our 34 and 66

 

[Danog]

Ahh I see. Surely 69 72 73 isn't enough to match bids on both of the twins.