Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[Yubby]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Great insight, thanks for sharing. Do you know what the club is doing to improve your response to point 4? To improve the game plan? I worry about this when I hear how stubborn and inflexible Voss is

 

[myblueroan]

I’m not in the group we need more stars.. But I really hoped we were going to address a small forward or two, a KPD to work with Weitering and a midfielder with pace, while going to the draft…

Doesn’t look like we’re going to do any of this, except hit the draft…

Instead of telling Kennedy and Owies to explore their options, those that actually kick goals… Why aren’t we telling Motlop, Durdin, Fantasia the same thing…

Not sure Houston is a star?

Not likely to get Trac...

Durable experienced players that improve what we've had. As you said A KPD and pace out of the middle.
Forwards...I think with Fog and Zac and Moir we'll be good..although I'm not sold at all with Zac purely because he is not durable.

 

[bluebunz]

Not sure Houston is a star?

Not likely to get Trac...

Durable experienced players that improve what we've had. As you said A KPD and pace out of the middle.
Forwards...I think with Fog and Zac and Moir we'll be good..although I'm not sold at all with Zac purely because he is not durable.

All Australian & top 5 kick for accuracy in the comp? Yes please.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players

As to why we play better, potentially is that the replacements are more focused on their role which indicates the game style is sound.
But as to why we lose mojo, imo, we've mishandled the reintegration of key players. Rushing back underdone 'names' at the expense of guys who've performed their role well.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

Don't forget Williams' salary too...

 

[Coona Blues]

Don't forget Williams' salary too...

Williams salary is an issue, but not one we can afford to fret over. He plays a position of need and is best 22 every day of the week. His lack of continuity has irked many, but a fit Zac Williams makes us substantially better. He hits targets more often than not by foot, as well as having great goal sense.

If he reaches a decent level of fitness under Inness, he will also provide the ability to go back or even pinch hit through the middle. At the moment, he is our best small forward option, even half fit. Get Fog fit for the pressure (possibly Cotts too) and some continuity for Durds and Mots and we have a functioning group of small forwards. The ongoing lack of continuity does lend itself to adding a premium option through the draft.

Zac’s salary is an issue, but we are not getting a club to take it on with his recent output. We can’t afford to offload him for outgoing picks, nor can we afford to lose his on field influence. While he did initially turn up overweight when recruited, there were some extenuating family circumstances taking his focus. I do not know how his rehab efforts and fitness focus has been of late, so it is impossible to pass judgement. He seems very invested, so I prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt until evidence to the contrary surfaces.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Zac’s salary is an issue

Only to the extent it impedes future deals

 

[teagueyubeauty]

We can plan around his salary when it’s not a burden which is in 2 seasons ie TDK and Weits.

We’ve got through 2/3 of the commitment already.

No one is taking Williams on without substantial GC like compo to Geelong, let’s stop worrying about what we can’t change and worry about what we can

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Cerra isn’t an A grader, no where near the league’s top players…

As you said both Cerra and Walsh were fit and firing in 2023 and got us to 5th (10 points behind 4th spot)…

Walsh has had an elite year on numbers, though his kicking has dropped 12%..

Is Walsh improving his kicking and Cerra playing more games really going to move the needle from 8th to Premiership?

Yes, injuries were a cruel factor, but our core group still played the majority of the season together… Plus every team has injuries…

Makes me think of further questions, it can’t just be injuries..

1. Our top talent have won many awards, B&F’s, AA’s, Coleman’s, MVP, Brownlow, Best in Finals & Coaches award.. Are our top talent brilliant individually, but struggle as a team?
2. Is our second tier of players not good enough?
3. Is our depth not good enough?
4. Is Voss and Co, not good enough, tactically and game plan wise?
5. Is our list Philosophy, not good enough?

I’m not in the group we need more stars.. But I really hoped we were going to address a small forward or two, a KPD to work with Weitering and a midfielder with pace, while going to the draft…

Doesn’t look like we’re going to do any of this, except hit the draft…

Instead of telling Kennedy and Owies to explore their options, those that actually kick goals… Why aren’t we telling Motlop, Durdin, Fantasia the same thing…

Reckon a fit Cerra, playing good footy, is very much an A grader.

You want to say he's a B+ type? Well, fine!

Hopefully, the new S & C team can get him right...

I always go back to his numbers in the last handful of games at Freo - that's rarely been repeated at the Blues, but the numbers are compelling.

And let's compare his 2023 numbers (he had a good year) to Sam Walsh's 2023 season?

 

[Robertio]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Thanks for the insight mate, it's as plain as day that when we are forced by injuries to change our game style we play better, i hope they're working on that right now.

 

[bmaurizio]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin

21

Jack Martin

Age

29

Ht

186cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.7

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.6

4star

G

1.1

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.6

3star

were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

 

[agro]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Great post.

The only bidding war we should enter into for Owies is for other clubs bidding up his trade value.

Third rounder would be a great outcome, second rounder would be magnificent.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hopefully Owies will reap us a 2nd rounder would really give us a leg up and more flexibility. Sad to see him go, he’s solid small forward plenty of grunt and has reasonable skill too.

 

[bmaurizio]

Not sure Houston is a star?

Not likely to get Trac...

Durable experienced players that improve what we've had. As you said A KPD and pace out of the middle.
Forwards...I think with Fog and Zac and Moir we'll be good..although I'm not sold at all with Zac purely because he is not durable.

No Huston is not a star, just a younger , faster, better kick of the footy than Newman and without his occasional brain fades.

 

[T2B_]

Houston would probably be the only player since Touhy that we'd had that could semi-routinely roost a goal from 60m too.

 

[Sin City]

No Huston is not a star, just a younger , faster, better kick of the footy than Newman and without his occasional brain fades.

He’s made the last two All Australian teams, that definitely makes him a star.

 

[myblueroan]

No Huston is not a star, just a younger , faster, better kick of the footy than Newman and without his occasional brain fades.

Like that
Sans
Newman swipe.
Love Newy!

 

[bmaurizio]

Like that
Sans
Newman swipe.
Love Newy!

Well Newy has his moments, but agree he’s been a very good addition to the team. Courageous and tenacious too.

 

[myblueroan]

Well Newy has his moments, but agree he’s been a very good addition to the team. Courageous and tenacious too.

Yeah. Nice!
I guess I was saying to Tenacious, it's not really 'stars' people are calling for, as much as higher talent with durability to upgrade and tweak our team.
The only star some of us would love is the
🛤🛤
Speaking of trains...for your morning enjoyment...

 

[Rustica]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

Williams is a massive failure so far

He was recruited as a midfielder and within weeks he was sent back and then injuries mounted.

Now he is a makeshift small forward who still has no continuity in his body.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

Yep 1 played great pinch hitting midfield half in wet conditions of a PF one time and the other ended up at NEAFL level before we got him….

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

He’s made the last two All Australian teams, that definitely makes him a star.

undeniably so.

He's 4 years younger than Newman and a clear upgrade....

 

[Coops93]

Zac Williams and Jack Martin were atrocious recruiting decisions, both injury prone and lacking professionalism to perform to our expectations.
Their salaries combined weighed us down, at least one is off the books completely. Poor recruiting decision which hopefully will not be repeated.

Jack Martin wasn't so bad. A free throw at the stumps and he was only expensive for one year. Since then he's been not so expensive, unfortunately hasn't been able to get on field enough. A failed pick up but not atrocious given how we got him and the cheapness aside from 1 yr - which was mitigated somewhat by it being the Covid year, so he didn't even cost that much that year.

 

[AndyNicka]

Houston would probably be the only player since Touhy that we'd had that could semi-routinely roost a goal from 60m too.

Gov?

 

[MPH78]

There are several factors at play here.

Firstly, Walsh didn't start season 2023 until round 5, and missed a chunk of the preseason, so he wasn't exactly fit and firing.

Our list is someone unbalanced because we have the amount of top end talent that we do. Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, Harry and TDK are all very top level talent and as such are high money earners.

The effect of this is its very hard to have as big a spread of B and B+ players when you are carrying the salaries of 6 A+ players.

So to balance this out and try to acquire depth we need to bring in drafted players, who are on a 3 year locked base salary. This gives us balance of adding depth and smoothing the salary, so when the older players come to the back end of their contracts we will have some money to resign the younger guys.

As mentioned before, the combination of 4 x 24-27 year old fringe players would have an average salary of 500k each or 2million. Where as 4 draftees have a base of around 150k + 5k per game played. So lets say around 670k a year. That opens up close to 1.4 mil in the cap. Pretty significant.
The other point to this is, 23-26 year old players do not want to play VFL football at all, and whilst you need a full 44 player squad to succeed, its simple not possible to do it with a list of players all the same age. You either can't afford it or you have a large amount of disgruntled seasoned players not getting AFL games.
This was shown by losing players like Dow, Fisher and Setterfield recently, whilst not world beaters, they know they can get AFL games at other clubs.

So constant rejuvenation is essential not only because it helps build a balanced TPP but also it allows more harmony within the club.

Re Kennedy, he is stuck in a hard place, he knows he will always be on a bubble of getting the midfield minutes he wants, and whilst he has the ability to play multiple roles, it might not necessarily be what he wants to do. Especially if there are other clubs out there that are offering him that main inside mid role.

Now to Motlop versus Owies. If you actually have a look at their career averages, the are very similar. Motlop is 7 years his junior and is more of a traditional small forward. This year he had no luck with injuries, but last year he showed he is very much up to being a high level small forward.
Owies is a warrior and has worked so hard, but he is more the type of undersized forward that gets a large amount of his goals from set shots, not nearly as much of a crumbing threat as Motlop.
Club believes Moir will surpass Owies in the near future as this type of player. And as mentioned before, we have in fact offered Owies a contract, but we have been blown out of the water by other clubs. Is he really the player we need to get in a bidding war and end up paying overs for?
Durdin I have hope for, he's shown me enough to be given a crack. Fantasia I cannot justify in anyway. Maybe its his surname. It's just to Carlton.

Our depth is both the hardest and easiest thing to measure. Over the last few seasons we've had that bad a run with injuries that we have played 40, 37 and 37 players across the last 3 years. To put that in perspective, Sydney had played 31 different players this year.
So on that statistic and our ladder finishes I believe it shows our depth is in a good spot.

Finally, and most worrying for me is it appears that we have played some of our better football when we've been missing a chunk of key players. I think this is the most telling thing of all and goes to your point number 4. When we have the most choices available player wise, we play our least creative football, I find it hard to believe it is personal based, as at different stages is has been different core players out. So in my opinion, our go to game strategy leaves is our biggest flaw. This is where our biggest improvement will come from, a much more flexible, creative and fluid game style. This should be our my targeted area over the off season.

So if one can't be bothered reading all of that, sorry I got carried away a bit, your point 4 is our biggest issue and I believe that is seriously hampering your point 1.
The other ones I think have been improving year on year for the last 4 years.

Excellent post. Your second last paragraph is the primary issue for me too. As I’ve posted previously, without material improvement in our coaching too, we will remain middle of the road.

Does the club share this view? Will they be addressing it as required?