Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVII

[marleyblue]

Guess it comes down to how one values the two.

I personally think it works in our favour - cleans up the list a bit, brings in a type we need, frees up cash, and given all forecasts are that it’s a very deep draft, a 20-25 this year could perhaps be regarded as 15-20 in most other years. There are plenty of highly rated players projected around 20-25.

Can understand if others value Kemp/Kennedy higher than that and/or don’t see the benefit that I see for our list, but I am seeing some wild valuations of Kemp in this thread (and also wild ideas of how much being contracted moves the needle).

Ultimately, still think whether we trade Kemp will come down to whether we can satisfy a 20-25 Club with whatever Saints offer us + Kennedy comp. I doubt it happens.

The issue with trading Kemp for a late 2nd round pick is not just that he is a young, developing talented former 1st R pick under contract. The main reason is he is a required player who can cover in both the forward and backline in either the key or third tall roles. He will play 15+ games this year even if he is not picked R1 as there are always injuries and we have no KP depth. Totally different proposition to Kennedy whose leaving will open more opportunities for young talent - Kemp is the young talent!

 

[Stamos]

We would guide a young talented player through our fs academy and then not pick him around his expected range?

Not great messaging.

Lucas' expected range is late-rookie. Not 2nd round.

 

[HarryFlashman]

I’d like someone to explain to me in what world is a 2nd round pick good value for the player that is coming in to replace pick 8!

The compo for Battle is an important factor - 8 for F2 is a monumental win for St Kilda for a contracted player!

You do not give another side (especially one that could play finals) a massive leg up in there recruiting, list management & on field performance!

Trading & picks aren’t binary - points don’t equal performance, there’s a lot more that goes into strategy to be successful - that includes not giving your opponents a massive leg up!

 

[JuddgementDay]

Stop over-rating our players like so many do here. Especially fringe players

Some think fringe players should get us top 20 picks...........

I see the opposite, draft picks are often over-valued, i.e. potential of a new player vs the player that we have in front of us.

e.g. Kemp - he is a quality person and player, there's no need to trade him; but if an appealing offer is made (way over), then we'll consider it

 

[Sweet Seventeen]

Me too , I don’t rate him , not good enough for backline , forward line , 1 good game , midfield can’t see it , I would have def take a future second … this year 32 too risky … if he turns out to be a really good player I will be suprised

Crazy Vossy thought he could make a defender out of him, but he was wrong. Kemp has a lot of talent and upside.

Still young, 23 I think and has not played 50 games yet. Reckon he will play every game next season, mainly forward.

He is quite quick for a man his size, great leap and good hands. Very good kick, will end up playing 200 plus for us imo.

Be prepared to be surprised and you will like it!

 

[marcmurphy3]

We would guide a young talented player through our fs academy and then not pick him around his expected range?

Not great messaging.

Plus even at 32 he's great value but why waste it when we can get him for peanuts.

 

[ferrisb]

If we trade Kemp for a pick that comes after a Campo bid then we have traded him for essentially nothing.

Can always live trade our way out.

I think there'd be decent offers on the night.

 

[gbatman]

I am still thinking and hoping that both Kennedy and Carroll will be used to get a pick before the predicted Camporeale bids.
Something like
63 and Carroll to Geelong for 57
57 and Kennedy to WBD for 35

Go to the draft with picks 3, 35, 63 (Ben Camporeale), 68, 69, 72

I am hoping there is enough interest in both players to make something like this happen. I am not sure if pick 35 would be high enough. I am not sure what clubs would be involved. But I am assuming this is why these trades will take so long. Most likely waiting to see if the interested clubs can come up with the right picks.

Future picks could be on the cards
F2 and Carroll to Geelong for 38
38 and Kennedy to Brisbane for pick 27

St Kilda's big for Kemp is possibly because they know we are after a mid tier second rounder to use to try and get back into the top 25.

I am sure it will be something like that. I am just hoping that this is not a situation where we are just seen doing the right thing by the players and making sure they get to a club and we lost them for nothing. That's happened a bit over the last few seasons. Kennedy is a good footballer and fits well into a side who can accommodate him. Carroll is young and has played some good games. Surely he is pick upgrade worthy.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Lucas is not ranked in the range of 32.

Misread sorry, no Lucas is not.

But Ben wouldn't be a surprise bid anywhere from 30 onwards.

 

[charred_fate]

I’d like someone to explain to me in what world is a 2nd round pick good value for the player that is coming in to replace pick 8!

The compo for Battle is an important factor - 8 for F2 is a monumental win for St Kilda for a contracted player!

You do not give another side (especially one that could play finals) a massive leg up in there recruiting, list management & on field performance!

Trading & picks aren’t binary - points don’t equal performance, there’s a lot more that goes into strategy to be successful - that includes not giving your opponents a massive leg up!

Isn’t it just the difference in quality between Battle and Kemp?

Battle is far more accomplished (though they got overs with 8)

 

[Sam The Doc]

Gee I'm glad 27 is gone, much prefer to keep him even if they kept that.......

 

[CarmenSandiego]

Kemp is a former 1st rounder, with significant investment being put into him with gametime.

Late starter to his career as was coming off injuries, starting to look more comfortable at the level, has just turned 23 & we'd offload him for a 2nd rounder?

Nah, don't rate it at all.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think the issue with future picks is we weren't expecting to trade Kemp. Then we turned our 2 1sts into pick 3.

If we trade both Kemp and Kennedy and don't get any more picks in this year we will have to many list spots vs decent picks, forcing us to draft multiple players at the end of the draft. Not ideal.

But if we don't get early enough picks then they will get swallowed up by the campo bid.

 

[DangerousD]

What is stopping SOS from bidding on Ben Campo at the proposed traded '32' knowing we're committed to the family? A complete ##### act but I wouldn't put it past him.....

Im sure he’s telling Austin that in his pursuit of Kemp as well.

 

[HaydossJ]

This has me nervous - if SOS believes we would have taken 27, he will find a way to get it done..

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Happy to regenerate as every chance this current squad isn't constructed well enough. Lacks a lot of leg speed and skill so need to have one eye on future pre tassie coming in.

Kemp doesn't lack leg speed. He's pretty quick for his size. Great hands and athleticism.

 

[T2B_]

Just no to trading Kemp unless they offer way overs. It ain't complicated.

 

[gbatman]

Crazy Vossy thought he could make a defender out of him, but he was wrong. Kemp has a lot of talent and upside.

Still young, 23 I think and has not played 50 games yet. Reckon he will play every game next season, mainly forward.

He is quite quick for a man his size, great leap and good hands. Very good kick, will end up playing 200 plus for us imo.

Be prepared to be surprised and you will like it!

In fairness, injuries probably stopped us experimenting with players going to other positions. In an ideal world our defenders stay fit and Kemp can go to the VFL to play forward or wing and come into the AFL team in that position. Not play key defender because Marchbank, Weitering, Durdin and MCGovern spent a lot of time out injured this season.

Kemp is exactly that. An offensive player and a really good one locked into playing lock down roles in positions he is not strong in.

He is an attacking weapon and needs to be used as such.

Hope we don't make a trade.

With Kennedy and Carroll looking to be traded. A mid tier 2nd rounder is valuable to us. could get us back into the 1st round or close to it packaged with outgoing players. Kemp going off our list would also ensure Stephen Silvagni's son is guaranteed a game next season. Kemp is also a good player and would fit well into St Kilda's forward line as he would in most sides.

SOS has thought about this one, for sure.

 

[Soapy V]

The next person who mentions Kemp in the same sentence as midfield is getting sent to have their delusions assessed.

Really? SOS reckons he's a mid/wing and I have no doubt that's why he is after him

 

[marcmurphy3]

This has me nervous - if SOS believes we would have taken 27, he will find a way to get it done..

Agree. If it's true that 27 gets it done surely that short gap can be bridged. Although it's not as short as it seems as 27 likely isn't swallowed up while 32 is. Not as simple as 5 picks difference.

 

[Stamos]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/trade-hq/afl-trade-2024-live-updates-and-news-from-deadline-day-of-the-afl-trade-period/live-coverage/adedfbc3c8977fdb0196145abda326cb#/entry/28407078

Jon RalphBLUES, SAINTS HIT STALEMATE OVER KEMP ASKING PRICE

Carlton would trade Brodie Kemp to St Kilda for a mid-20s draft pick but have only been offered a future second-rounder by their former list boss Steve Silvagni.
St Kilda list boss Silvagni has again made a beeline for a player he drafted at Carlton, with Kemp taken at pick 17 in 2019, as he seeks to find a replacement for third defender Josh Battle

26

Josh Battle

Age

26

Ht

193cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.4

4star

MG

196.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

142.8

3star

D

10.8

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

175.6

3star

.
It is understood the Blues would have done the deal for the No.27 draft pick that the Saints had in their possession.
Instead they traded that pick to the Lions in exchange for pick 32 and 45 to get more draft collateral to secure Bulldogs midfielder Jackson Macrae

6

Jackson Macrae

Age

30

Ht

192cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

13.1

5star

HB

14.8

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.9

4star

HB

13.5

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

4.1

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

.
The Saints have not offered 32 given they are trying to keep their draft hand intact after picks seven and eight, which they secured through a low ladder finish and the Battle compensation.

 

[Coona Blues]

Pretty sure Austin will be looking at orchestrating a pick swap. Attaining an F2 on the understanding that when required we trade back for a pick in the twenties or thirties this year in order to draft a kid in our required range.

His old stomping ground at the Bulldogs who are looking at business for Chugga would be perfect.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Isn’t it just the difference in quality between Battle and Kemp?

Battle is far more accomplished (though they got overs with 8)

No, Saints got massive overs & then get a replacement for **** all.
Battle is a better defender than Kemp - there’s no doubt in that.
But to replace him with someone 3yrs younger & potential & get a top 10 pick for it is a massive win for them.

You have to make them pay thru the ****ing nose to keep the bastards honest

 

[Monty1978]

Crazy Vossy thought he could make a defender out of him, but he was wrong. Kemp has a lot of talent and upside.

Still young, 23 I think and has not played 50 games yet. Reckon he will play every game next season, mainly forward.

He is quite quick for a man his size, great leap and good hands. Very good kick, will end up playing 200 plus for us imo.

Be prepared to be surprised and you will like it!

Hope so …agree that he has time on his side and hope I’m way off the mark … I personally dont see it …too fumbly and brain fades … love your confidence he will play every game as a forward next year and 200 for the baggers

 

[Crippablues]

Trading Kemp is completly delusional. Banking on playing Jsos in defence after an ACL and not knowing how he'll go yet while giving away a player after 4 good years of development. Ming blowing

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