Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Bartel might get 3 actually. Again, I'll bring the subject up again. Fremantle vs Bulldogs last year, it was a close game which the Bulldogs ended up winning but the votes went:

3- Peter Bell
2- Brett Peak
1- Mitch Hahn

The losing team can easily get the 3 votes if it's a close game

No doubt. However if I can't split two players (Hayes/Bartel) i'll give the 3 to the player in the winning side.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Winning team will get the 3 votes about 92-93% of the time.

 

[senrulzisback]

Re: Brownlow Medal

You sure you watched the same game as me? Bartel was unbelievable and I would say it was as good a game as I've ever seen him play.

Yep, I was at the game mate.

Bartel was good but Chapman was very good.

I guess the fact that Chapman stands out a lot more might have helped, when you are watching a game on television, you tend to get swayed by what the commentators say, but when you are at the game, you form your own opinion.

There were easily 3-5 players that could have gotten BOG in that game.

Riewoldt was very good as well, very inspiring, and put 100% effort every time he got the ball, kicked some freakish goals and balanced the side out well. I gave him one vote.

I gave two to Chapman because he constantly got the ball and was a force. Also kicked a goal from miles out that really inspired the Cats to get back into the game, which they did.

My three votes went to Gardiner, because he was good around the ground, in the ruck, put pressure on the opposition with his tackles, and kicked 4 goals including the winner from an unbelievable pack mark.

I will watch a replay of this game later this week, then I will see if I have changed my mind.

 

[Jonny27]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Yep, I was at the game mate.

Bartel was good but Chapman was very good.

I guess the fact that Chapman stands out a lot more might have helped, when you are watching a game on television, you tend to get swayed by what the commentators say, but when you are at the game, you form your own opinion.

There were easily 3-5 players that could have gotten BOG in that game.

Riewoldt was very good as well, very inspiring, and put 100% effort every time he got the ball, kicked some freakish goals and balanced the side out well. I gave him one vote.

I gave two to Chapman because he constantly got the ball and was a force. Also kicked a goal from miles out that really inspired the Cats to get back into the game, which they did.

My three votes went to Gardiner, because he was good around the ground, in the ruck, put pressure on the opposition with his tackles, and kicked 4 goals including the winner from an unbelievable pack mark.

I will watch a replay of this game later this week, then I will see if I have changed my mind.

Yeah I see what you are saying but some of the things that Bartel did were just unbelievable and he nearly won the match for us. I would probably go 3-Bartel 2-Hayes 1-Gardiner

 

[mcuzzy]

Re: Brownlow Medal

like bartel last year, probably had just as good a year as 2007 yet only finished on 10 votes compared to 29 in '07. It's like the umps take the betting odds into account when giving out votes.

Holy Shit! its weird cos i was thinking of Bartel when i made that post

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Who just watched Footy Classified???

They mentioned that Tyson Edwards was this years best smokey, in the past 5 mins his odds have come down from 601-1 to 101-1 haha.

 

[You Beauty!]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Who just watched Footy Classified???

They mentioned that Tyson Edwards was this years best smokey, in the past 5 mins his odds have come down from 601-1 to 101-1 haha.

Yep. Saw that. His odds are now 34 - 1 on Sportsbet. Some people must have put a fair amount on him pretty quickly.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Can someone tell me what exactly was said for Edwards to be this short in betting?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Ditto but I was tossing up between Gardiner and Gilbert for the one vote. Gave it to Gilbert but could easily go to Gardiner.

I was at the game and felt that the 2-3 votes could go to any of Hayes ( should get 3 ), Bartel, Riewoldt, Gardiner....others who could be in the votes are Chapman ( doesn't poll that well ), Ablett, Selwood
My votes are Hayes 3, Gardiner 2, Riewoldt 1

I can't believe that people were offering massive odds / bagging Boyd in earlier posts. Boyd is clearly the smokey in my book after 12 last year and is having a super year and is almost in the best every week. The red nut who won the medal last year has been ordinary this year, the umps hate Aker and Cross has been only fair

 

[jswan]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I can now tell you that all betting on Edwards has been suspended at sportsbet. I went over the road to the TAB from the office to have a look, you can bet on any player in the AFL for the brownlow, but betting on Edwards is suspended. Lyon and hutchy have certainly thrown a spanner in the works thats for sure.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Can someone tell me what exactly was said for Edwards to be this short in betting?

I can now tell you that all betting on Edwards has been suspended at sportsbet. I went over the road to the TAB from the office to have a look, you can bet on any player in the AFL for the brownlow, but betting on Edwards is suspended. Lyon and hutchy have certainly thrown a spanner in the works thats for sure.

That's so gold.

FWIW I have Edwards on 10 votes.

 

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal

no-one here will believe this but yesterday i wrote a reply saying that i think tyson edwards might be silly odds at 500/1 what do you guys think? and for some reason my computer crashed/stuffed up and it wiped it and i couldnt be bothered typing it again. almost choked when i saw footy classified last night and sure enough his odds have tumbled ridiculously. i have had a good look back through my votes and am not too worried now, imo the most votes he could be on now is between 10-11, and that is certainly not good value for a 34/1 shot. has to play saints and cats in next 4 weeks in melbourne, should be about 80-100/1 i reckon.

the blokes who do the odds have no idea. simon black was $31 last week, got flogged by kane cornes and is now into $17!! do they just make it up?

the best bets at the moment in my opinion are -

steve johnson (depending on injury), could well be leading...is $31

Swan - could well be leading by a few....$7

Marc Murphy - good value at the moment, carlton have good run, $67

Goddard/Montagna - both at $15, 1 or 2 BOGS and i reckon they'll be close to favs.

the reason i think there is so much value is geelong and saints could have heaps of blokes all on 5-15 votes, and if you pick someone out who is on say 10-12 votes, who you think can come home well, then there are some silly odds around.

Justin Sherman at $5,000.....is that just silly or worth a punt?

 

[lloydy_loinchop]

Re: Brownlow Medal

19 G.Ablett Gee
15 N.Riewoldt StK
13 D.Swan Coll
13 A.Didak Coll
12 N.Dal Santo StK
12 L.Montagna StK
12 J.Brown BL
10 P.Chapman Gee
10 L.Hayes StK
10 C.Judd Car

Lots of St. Kilda players in there, and a couple of weeks ago I had Goddard up there as well. Hayes hasn't polled that well given his teammates stealing votes from him, and neither has Selwood for me. Swan has done very well in a star-less Collingwood side, but since Didak has come back he has gotten 11 votes in the last 4 games!
Brown is only there because everytime he polls, it is a best on ground. He has only polled like 4 times (thus 12 votes). Judd culd arguably be higher, but he has changed as a player in the last couple of years. He used to absolutely dominate and get best on grounds when he polled. For me, he is polling or close to polling every game, but often with just the 1 vote.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

For me Ive been keeping a close eye on the Brownlow betting markets

have to say the good outsiders right now are Adam Goodes and Alan Didak. These 2 have that match winning ability that attracts votes from umpires

 

[senrulzisback]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Gibbs is good value at $201.

Has had some BOG performances this year, but he has been inconsistent, which is why he would have slipped under the radar.

Boyd at $251 He has been fantastic this year!

 

[ryza92]

Re: Brownlow Medal

what about scott pendlebury? is he much of a chance? you would have 2 think he would poll a fair bit before his knee injury.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

no-one here will believe this but yesterday i wrote a reply saying that i think tyson edwards might be silly odds at 500/1 what do you guys think? and for some reason my computer crashed/stuffed up and it wiped it and i couldnt be bothered typing it again. almost choked when i saw footy classified last night and sure enough his odds have tumbled ridiculously. i have had a good look back through my votes and am not too worried now, imo the most votes he could be on now is between 10-11, and that is certainly not good value for a 34/1 shot. has to play saints and cats in next 4 weeks in melbourne, should be about 80-100/1 i reckon.

the blokes who do the odds have no idea. simon black was $31 last week, got flogged by kane cornes and is now into $17!! do they just make it up?

the best bets at the moment in my opinion are -

steve johnson (depending on injury), could well be leading...is $31

Swan - could well be leading by a few....$7

Marc Murphy - good value at the moment, carlton have good run, $67

Goddard/Montagna - both at $15, 1 or 2 BOGS and i reckon they'll be close to favs.

the reason i think there is so much value is geelong and saints could have heaps of blokes all on 5-15 votes, and if you pick someone out who is on say 10-12 votes, who you think can come home well, then there are some silly odds around.

Justin Sherman at $5,000.....is that just silly or worth a punt?

Black was plunged on all around the country last week and was $15 to $17 everywhere by Friday night. They have left him at $17 as their risk on him winning is now very high

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Gibbs is good value at $201.

Has had some BOG performances this year, but he has been inconsistent, which is why he would have slipped under the radar.

Boyd at $251 He has been fantastic this year!

i threw 20 ew on him last week at $1500/$350. Glad i did because i just checked and he's in to $100/$26 now

 

[Frankie23]

Re: Brownlow Medal

i threw 20 ew on him last week at $1500/$350. Glad i did because i just checked and he's in to $100/$26 now

Someone must be listening to BF, Edwards last night now Boyd tonight, into 101 from 250.

Whilst we are at it, Jimmy Bartel is at 301-1. I put 5 bucks each way on him last night, been through his games and there are many games where he can poll 1 vote and 3-4 games where he is a shoe in for votes.

Knowing how his track record is in Brownlows, doesnt seem such a bad idea to jump on now.

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Someone must be listening to BF, Edwards last night now Boyd tonight, into 101 from 250.

Whilst we are at it, Jimmy Bartel is at 301-1. I put 5 bucks each way on him last night, been through his games and there are many games where he can poll 1 vote and 3-4 games where he is a shoe in for votes.

Knowing how his track record is in Brownlows, doesnt seem such a bad idea to jump on now.

it's a crack up, as soon as a player gets brought up for consideration....down go the odds on centrebet

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

it's a crack up, as soon as a player gets brought up for consideration....down go the odds on centrebet

I backed Boyd at Centrebet for a fair bit each way last night. That's why his odds came in as at $251 you don't need to out too much on him to bring the odds in dramatically. I didn't hear anyone talking about him or Edwards earlier in the week and just felt that he is way over the odds.
Watch for Boyd to trim up in the oddds with other bookies today.....

 

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal

as far as "value" goes it all comes down to this....if ablett and judd ARE somewhere near 18-21 at the moment (which according to my votes is possible) then all these value bets are probably highly unlikely. However, it is also possible that these 2 are just above 10 votes (11-15) at the moment (according to my least possible votes at the moment/worst case). if you believe this is the case, then now is a great time to jump on some blokes at massive value. remember, this is all opinions! i may be way right or way wrong.

i personally am prepared to gamble that ablett and especially judd aren't too much above 15 votes at the moment, therefore the following blokes who COULD have 8-12 votes are terrific value. 1 -2 big games away from being right in contention.

player / Leat possible votes / most possible votes / odds

s.johnson / 5.5 / 20 / $31
p. chapman / 2 / 14 / $15
l. hayes / 4.5 / 15.5 / $15
Didak / 5 / 11.5 / $21
montagna / 3.5 / 17 / $15
swan / 6 / 21.5 / $7
M Murphy / 2.5 / 17 / $67
goddard / 3.5 / 16.5 / $15
j sherman / 2.5 / 10 / $5000
j corey / 1.5 / 10.5 / $2000
j watson / 1 / 13.5 / $1000
cooney / 5 / 11 / $300
kirk / 3.5 / 11.5 / $1000
o'keefe / 1.5 / 9.5 / $500

thanks guys, enjoy reading your thoughts, am going to wack a little bit on cooney/corey and kirk this week and hope swan has a quiet couple and his odds go out.

 

[Little Jerry]

Re: Brownlow Medal

i personally am prepared to gamble that ablett and especially judd aren't too much above 15 votes at the moment, therefore the following blokes who COULD have 8-12 votes are terrific value. 1 -2 big games away from being right in contention.

player / Leat possible votes / most possible votes / odds

s.johnson / 5.5 / 20 / $31
p. chapman / 2 / 14 / $15
l. hayes / 4.5 / 15.5 / $15
Didak / 5 / 11.5 / $21
montagna / 3.5 / 17 / $15
swan / 6 / 21.5 / $7
M Murphy / 2.5 / 17 / $67
goddard / 3.5 / 16.5 / $15
j sherman / 2.5 / 10 / $5000
j corey / 1.5 / 10.5 / $2000
j watson / 1 / 13.5 / $1000
cooney / 5 / 11 / $300
kirk / 3.5 / 11.5 / $1000
o'keefe / 1.5 / 9.5 / $500

Thanks. Very helpful for players i might put a bit of cash on.

 

[Big Nasty]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Here's my updated Brownlow take on the coaches Votes after Round 14.


20 - Ablett.

18 - Judd.

17 - Hayes.

16 - Chapman, N Riewoldt.

15 - S Johnson.

13 - J Brown, Boyd.

12 - Dal Santo, Montagna, Mitchell, Didak.

11 - Cox, Goddard.

10 - Akermanis, Tredrea, Bartel, Tippet, Swan.

99 - Goodes, Cooney, S Black, J Selwood, Hargrave, Gibbs..

88 - M Murphy, Fevola, Deledio, J Watson, Kirk, S Thompson.

77 - Aaron Davey, Winderlich, Goodwin, R Shaw, Doughty, Koschitzke, Sandilands, Tambling.

66 - Le Cras, T Edwards, Vince, Porplysia, L Power, Adcock, Stanton, Monfries, Pavlich, Pendlebury, J Fraser, Haselby, D Jackson, S Gilbert, Higgins, Chaplin.

55 - P Burgoyne, D Pearce, Roughead, Hale, J Brennen, J McVeigh, O'Keefe, Jolly, K Simpson, J McVeigh, R Griffin, Cross, Giansiracusa, A Selwood, S Hurn, Moloney.

44 - Kerr, J Bolton, B Johnson, S Welsh, Knights, Johncock, Lloyd, Ryder, L Davis, Dick, Gram, Byrnes, Sylvia, Sewell, Surjan, Richardson, Duffield.

33 - J Lewis, H Mcintosh, Harding, B Harvey, J Gibson, Wells, C Cornes, K Cornes, Rodan, Brogan, Foley, M Morton, McPhee, A Welsh, Medhurst, Lockyer, O'Bree, McLeod, Dangerfield, Van Berlo, T Johnstone, Sherman, M Clark, R Hadley, Betts, J Corey, Enright, Mooney, T Richards, Gilbee, Lake, Eagleton, M Gardiner, Grimes.

22 - K Jack, Harbrow, J Hill, L Mackay, Drummond, Patful, T Selwood, Bradshaw, Rich, Scotland, Milburn, Mackie, F Ray, Ball, Dyson, Lovett, Brown, Mundy, S Hill, C Bruce, Bateman, C Rioli, Franklin, A Simpson, Swallow, D Fletcher, M McVeigh, S Power, Lynch, Wirrpanda, D Motlop, N Krakouer, Cassisi, J Riewoldt, Polo, T Cloke, Mclean, Carrazzo.

11 - N Brown, Bowden, Nahas, Logan, Salopek, Carlyle, Rawlings, D Pratt, Muston, Moss, Whitecross, Guerra, S Fisher, Schneider, C Jones, Jack Anthony, M Johnson, Tarrant, B Miller, Jamar, C Morton, T Walker, Otten, J Macdonald, Waite, Houlihan, B Thornton, Bower, Ottens, Scarlett, Kelly, C Bolton, Hall, Mattner, Glass, Embley, Priddis, Pears, S Burgoyne, O'Brien.

 

[Cousin Tiger]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Here's my updated Brownlow Votes after Round 14.


20 - Ablett.

18 - Hayes, Judd.

15 - S Johnson.

14 - N Riewoldt.

13 - Chapman, J Brown, Boyd.

12 - Dal Santo, Montagna, Mitchell, Didak.

11 - Cox, Goddard.

10 - Akermanis, Tredrea, Bartel, Tippet.

99 - Goodes, Cooney, Swan, S Black, Gibbs.

88 - M Murphy, Fevola, Deledio, J Watson, S Thompson, Kirk.

77 - Aaron Davey, Winderlich, J Selwood, Goodwin, R Shaw, Doughty, Koschitzke, Hargrave, Griffin, Sandilands, D Pearce, Adcock.

66 - Le Cras, T Edwards, Vince, Porplysia, L Power, Stanton, Monfries, Pavlich, Pendlebury, J Fraser, Haselby, D Jackson, Tambling, J McVeigh.

55 - P Burgoyne, Roughead, Hale, J Brennen, Jolly, O'Keefe, K Simpson, J McVeigh, S Higgins, Cross, Giansiracusa, A Selwood.

44 - Kerr, J Bolton, B Johnson, S Welsh, Knights, Lloyd, Ryder, L Davis, Dick, Gram, S.Gilbert, Moloney, Byrnes, Sylvia, Sewell, Surjan, Rodan, Richardson.

33 - J Lewis, H Mcintosh, Harding, B Harvey, Wells, Chaplin, C Cornes, K Cornes, Foley, M Morton, McPhee, A Welsh, Medhurst, Lockyer, O'Bree, Duffield, McLeod, Dangerfield, Johncock, Van Berlo, T Johnstone, Sherman, M Clark, R Hadley, Betts, J Corey, Enright, Mooney, T Richards, Gilbee, Eagleton, Lake, S Hurn, Lynch, Grimes.

22 - K Jack, Harbrow, J Hill, Mackay, Drummond, Patful, T Selwood, Bradshaw, Rich, Scotland, Milburn, F Ray, Ball, Dyson, Lovett, L Brown, Mundy, S Hill, B Mclean, C Bruce, Bateman, C Rioli, Franklin, A Simpson, Swallow, D Fletcher, M McVeigh, S Power, Wirrpanda, J Gibson, D Motlop, N Krakouer, Brogan, Cassisi, J Riewoldt, Polo.

11 - N Brown, Bowden, Nahas, S Tuck, Logan, Salopek, Carlyle, Rawlings, D Pratt, Muston, Moss, Whitecross, Guerra, S Fisher, Schneider, C Jones, Jack Anthony, M Johnson, Tarrant, B Miller, C Morton, T Walker, Otten, J Macdonald, Waite, Houlihan, B Thornton, Bower, Ottens, Scarlett, Kelly, Mackie, C Bolton, Hall, Mattner, Glass, Embley, Priddis, Pears, Broughton, T Cloke.

Tambling > Franklin haha