Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Fully agree on all counts. Swan is the worst sub $3 bet I've ever seen. Heath Shaw is another one whom nobody here has mentioned, who could get the votes on Saturday. Swan could easily have polled 0 votes on the weekend, which has been the case with a number of his games this year where he has been given 2's and 3's by the general consensus.

In saying that, I'm keeping my Swan brownlow/Pies top 4 and Swan brownlow/Pies premiership bets that I took at the start of the year under lock and key.

Would you rate Swan's 2008 or 2007 better?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Wouldn't we all love to see a Black/Goodes, One Two. $80

Sure would ! Black \ Selwood even better. Judd \ Black at $42 great value. Quinellas are super value if u dont like Swan or Stk players.

 

[Fadge]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Would you rate Swan's 2008 or 2007 better?

Neither year anywhere near as good as his 2009 year. Are you alluding to the fact he dropped from 20 votes in 2007 to 12 votes last year due to the increased expectation from the umpires? Valid theory. Though an interesting stat that someone posted on another thread is that every time Swan has accumulated 30+ possessions in a game during '07 and '08, he has polled votes. He has had 16 30+ possession games so far this year.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Neither year anywhere near as good as his 2009 year. Are you alluding to the fact he dropped from 20 votes in 2007 to 12 votes last year due to the increased expectation from the umpires? Valid theory. Though an interesting stat that someone posted on another thread is that every time Swan has accumulated 30+ possessions in a game during '07 and '08, he has polled votes. He has had 16 30+ possession games so far this year.

I was just wondering. Seems odd how he can go from 20 votes to 12 without that big of a drop in performance really. Pretty much identical disposals, less marks, more goals and behinds, slighlty less tackles, and a better FF:FA ratio...yet he polled so poorly. And you only lost 2 extra games compared to 2007.

Seems like he was good in 07, then pissed the umpires off or something in 2008.

I find that stat pretty irrelevant. I predict that will fail when the Round 2/3 Votes are read out, aka his first/second 30+ possession game this year.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Why is the Essendon Market suspended?

Some rumours floating around?

Stanton and Watson both injury concerns.... and gives them excuse to make Watson favourite as he should be.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hey what chance do you rekon i have with this multi for most team votes,
judd, goodes, vince, black, tredrea, boyd, swan, aa davey @ $208
it would be good if they all get up

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hey what chance do you rekon i have with this multi for most team votes,
judd, goodes, vince, black, tredrea, boyd, swan, aa davey @ $208
it would be good if they all get up

Locks: Judd, Goodes, Swan, Davey.

I still think Black and Brown will be close.
I think Tredrea should just hold off for port.
Vince vs Thompson will be very close.
WBD could go anywhere imo.

It could easily get up, but I dobut it, only needs 1 thing to go wrong. I'd do a couple of variances with say Thompson or Pearce instead of Vince/Tredrea.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal

It could easily get up, but I dobut it, only needs 1 thing to go wrong. I'd do a couple of variances with say Thompson or Pearce instead of Vince/Tredrea.

yeah i was thinking of doing some variations with less people

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I consider Boyd as much as a lock as Swan and Judd. The best part is still being able to get him around $2

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I consider Boyd as much as a lock as Swan and Judd. The best part is still being able to get him around $2

Eeek, I don't consider him a lock at all.

Cross/Cooney/Higgins/Akermanis all threats imo. We will see. This is the only club I can see some upsets happening.

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think that the medal is down to 5 chances and will quinella all options ( which I won on big time last year ). Judd, Black, Selwood, Ablett and Goodes. Id say that the medal may be headed to a previous winner but definately to a previous good poller of votes. I would lay Swan all day long if I was a bookie and am sure that he will be missed in what looks like certain votes games.

can you get odds on this yet? from which agency?

there would be 20 combinations right?

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

can you get odds on this yet? from which agency?

there would be 20 combinations right?

Quinella options are there. TAB has them.

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Judd - Watson - Davey - Harvey - Goodes - A Selwood @ $24

they are all considered 'locks' by most.

in case of an upset, which only looks to be possible with west coast, variations could easily be made. For example, substituting Cox in for Selwood would get odds of $30, Priddis would get $60 (value!!) and LeCras $87 (THIS is value).

It's quite amazing that a bet of Watson - Davey - Harvey - LeCras would net $77 per dollar.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Judd - Watson - Davey - Harvey - Goodes - A Selwood @ $24

they are all considered 'locks' by most.

in case of an upset, which only looks to be possible with west coast, variations could easily be made. For example, substituting Cox in for Selwood would get odds of $30, Priddis would get $60 (value!!) and LeCras $87 (THIS is value).

It's quite amazing that a bet of Watson - Davey - Harvey - LeCras would net $77 per dollar.

So true (first post). Amazing odds. Where'd you get the Watson odds from? Centrebet?

Watson - Davey - Harvey is $9ish? Great odds. Hope they all hold up.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The BF Odds thingy is reporting Stanton 1.70 and Watson 2.40. Only Centrebet

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Where is the top 5 market?

 

[TassieSaint]

Re: Brownlow Medal

26 - Ablett
24 - Hayes
22 - Montagna
21 - Swan
18 - Dal Santo
17 - Didak
16 - Selwood, Pendlebury
15 - Boyd
14 - Watson, Chapman

mathematically only 4 blokes left who can win it according to my probably horrifically innacurate votes. Watson's been at ridiculous odds all season imo, would be shocked if Stanton came close to knocking him off.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hey what chance do you rekon i have with this multi for most team votes,
judd, goodes, vince, black, tredrea, boyd, swan, aa davey @ $208
it would be good if they all get up

IMO all wll win with Tredrea and Davey tight. Davey doesn't poll well and Brock Mclean ( other I have in front at Melb from Davey ). I have Tredrea nose in front at Port from Pearce. Gee Rodan is flashy down there, similar to Motlop who won last year but I have him 3-4 off pace.
Boyd will win at the dogs and is way over the odds. He polled 12 last year and he could feasibly poll in 17 games this year. You can't beat good pollers in winning sides who play well in most games on Brownlow night. Cross is injured and has had a much worse year than last year when he polled 12. Aker is hated and again only an ave year anyway. Cooney has had a poor year also in brownlow terms vs last year. They may have all been good team players in 09 but not in brwonlow terms.
Boyd, Black, Harvey are the 3 anchors at good prices and can be used in multis to boost prices.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Judd - Watson - Davey - Harvey - Goodes - A Selwood @ $24

they are all considered 'locks' by most.

in case of an upset, which only looks to be possible with west coast, variations could easily be made. For example, substituting Cox in for Selwood would get odds of $30, Priddis would get $60 (value!!) and LeCras $87 (THIS is value).

It's quite amazing that a bet of Watson - Davey - Harvey - LeCras would net $77 per dollar.

I don't rate Watson a lock at all. I have him and Stanton equal so Watson could easily win but I wouldn't rate him a lock.
I give Stanton votes in R3 ( 2 ), R7 ( 3 ),R15 ( 2 ), plus 1 in Anzac game vs Coll and R12 vs Melb. Watson can easily win but he's by no means a good thing. Next 2 weeks crucial.
Davey and Selwood are no where near locks either and both could very easily get rolled by Mclean ( or other ) and Lecras, Priddis...depending on the next 2 weeks.

 

[john333]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Hey guys who do you reckon will poll the most for Fremantle, do you reckon Sandilands would have it easily covered or a surprise packet like Duffield or Broughton?

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal

How come the market for Essendon's Most Team Votes is still suspended on TAB Sportsbet?

 

[bradfooks]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think that the medal is down to 5 chances and will quinella all options ( which I won on big time last year ). Judd, Black, Selwood, Ablett and Goodes. Id say that the medal may be headed to a previous winner but definately to a previous good poller of votes. I would lay Swan all day long if I was a bookie and am sure that he will be missed in what looks like certain votes games.

you have to have a st kilda player in there somewhere 19 wins now 21 likely meaning that at least one st kilda player will poll 20 votes most likely Hayes maybe Montagna or Dal Santo so you might like to reconsider

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Hey guys who do you reckon will poll the most for Fremantle, do you reckon Sandilands would have it easily covered or a surprise packet like Duffield or Broughton?

I have it very close and Pavlich, Hasleby, Sandi all just about equal. hard to go past Pav who polls well and is a good price. You'd be mad to get onto Sandi at long odds on IMO.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal

you have to have a st kilda player in there somewhere 19 wins now 21 likely meaning that at least one st kilda player will poll 20 votes most likely Hayes maybe Montagna or Dal Santo so you might like to reconsider

yeah but because heaps of them were playing well wouldn't they take votes off each other, making them not poll as highly as others such as goodes,judd etc. that don't have players taking there votes ?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

you have to have a st kilda player in there somewhere 19 wins now 21 likely meaning that at least one st kilda player will poll 20 votes most likely Hayes maybe Montagna or Dal Santo so you might like to reconsider

Funny you mention that as I have Hayes coming 6th !