Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

mitchell2buddy said:
Go over abletts season, read about it, read the stats and you will surely change your mind, in 6 of there wins he hasd had 30+ disposals and kicked 2 or more goals, and in 11 of there wins 30+ disposals and atleast a goal, surely his home, i can't see him missing out this year unless swan pips him but he goes in as a deserving favourite for mine
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I think the margin for error on Ablett is huge since no one knows just how much those extra disposals will influence the direction of the umpires. I do have him winning on 24 but anything between 18 and 30 would not surprise me.

EDIT: Catfan I think you're right on the money
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

echelon22 said:
I think the margin for error on Ablett is huge since no one knows just how much those extra disposals will influence the direction of the umpires. I do have him winning on 24 but anything between 18 and 30 would not surprise me.

EDIT: Catfan I think you're right on the money
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:thumbsu: agree strongly! you can twist stats around to make pretty much all of the front runners look home. Ablett is a gun player, i personally dont think this has been his best season, but that is debatable, i'm sure many disagree. I could see the extra touches not helping him at all and him ending up on about 20 votes and not winning, but i also wouldnt be surprised if he ended up near 30 votes.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

anyone got any tips on whos going to poll in the most games?
you can do it on tab and there looks like a bit of value... ablett favourite at 4.75, not sure though if he polls in the the most games surely he will romp the medal in.

i had corey last year at 11 i think and he won it, but with a one or two others though so odds werent as good come payout.

who does everyone think will go alright here?
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

I am generally a hopeless Brownlow punter and never bet long range (always on the day) but after reading through this thread I am probably going to have two bets - on Swan and Hayes - both to win the medal.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

moond0g said:
anyone got any tips on whos going to poll in the most games?
you can do it on tab and there looks like a bit of value... ablett favourite at 4.75, not sure though if he polls in the the most games surely he will romp the medal in.

i had corey last year at 11 i think and he won it, but with a one or two others though so odds werent as good come payout.

who does everyone think will go alright here?
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I have Swan with the potential to poll in 15, but so many are 1s and 2s and he could miss out on a few. I had a lot of players with 11-13 potential vote games. Hayes is probably the best value at $34 but I'm not putting any money near it since it could go so many ways and I think a multi-way split is a big chance
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

I can't believe how everyone has just overlooked Jimmy Bartel. Has had 13 games this year where he got 28 or more disposals. I got on him at $126 for top 5 on friday and he's into 67. If there is one smoky outside the $101 to win bracket, it would have to be him. Past winner, proven poller, but only 10 votes last year and everyone's obsession with Selwood has seen him drop off the face of the earth. Brownlow Guru rates him a $38 chance to place - a better chance than Vince, Didak, Boyd and Black and I have to agree, I've definitely come round. Could be a huge surprise packet tonight.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

AhSteveSteve27 said:
I can't believe how everyone has just overlooked Jimmy Bartel. Has had 13 games this year where he got 28 or more disposals. I got on him at $126 for top 5 on friday and he's into 67. If there is one smoky outside the $101 to win bracket, it would have to be him. Past winner, proven poller, but only 10 votes last year and everyone's obsession with Selwood has seen him drop off the face of the earth. Brownlow Guru rates him a $38 chance to place - a better chance than Vince, Didak, Boyd and Black and I have to agree, I've definitely come round. Could be a huge surprise packet tonight.
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Stats wise, his season this year has been identical to that of 2007, but as we all know the brownlow isn't decided on stats alone. Could be an interesting one, and will be interesting to see how he polls.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

AhSteveSteve27 said:
I can't believe how everyone has just overlooked Jimmy Bartel. Has had 13 games this year where he got 28 or more disposals. I got on him at $126 for top 5 on friday and he's into 67. If there is one smoky outside the $101 to win bracket, it would have to be him. Past winner, proven poller, but only 10 votes last year and everyone's obsession with Selwood has seen him drop off the face of the earth. Brownlow Guru rates him a $38 chance to place - a better chance than Vince, Didak, Boyd and Black and I have to agree, I've definitely come round. Could be a huge surprise packet tonight.
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He had a much better year last year and only polled 10 votes.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

Will the TAB allow me to multi Hayes Brownlow Top 5, into Hayes Norm Smith, into Saints flag?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

I just thinks the odds about him are wrong. Especially the other day when the TAB had him $126 to place AND $126 for top 5. $501 is too long when you have guys like Lake, McLeod, Sandilands, Harvey, even a guy like Sewell or Davis at $201 and $301. Doesn't make much sense.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

AhSteveSteve27 said:
I can't believe how everyone has just overlooked Jimmy Bartel.
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As a Geelong supporter I can tell you that Jimmy had played a large portion of games off half back this season, away from the midfield and out of the umpire's view.

Last year he polled poorly as his role in the team changed. This year, due to us having injured small defenders he's had to play back. Don't expect him to poll well.

He has no chance in Group 5 IMO. Thompson or Cooney most likely but I wouldn't go near it. Better value elsewhere.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

AhSteveSteve27 said:
I can't believe how everyone has just overlooked Jimmy Bartel. Has had 13 games this year where he got 28 or more disposals. I got on him at $126 for top 5 on friday and he's into 67. If there is one smoky outside the $101 to win bracket, it would have to be him. Past winner, proven poller, but only 10 votes last year and everyone's obsession with Selwood has seen him drop off the face of the earth. Brownlow Guru rates him a $38 chance to place - a better chance than Vince, Didak, Boyd and Black and I have to agree, I've definitely come round. Could be a huge surprise packet tonight.
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Yes I agree with you. It wouldnt surprise me one bit that he takes out his group also! And screw a whole heap of people who chose thompson or cooney in that group

For the record
Ablett
Swan
Hayes for top 3

Ablett
Hayes
Dal Santo leader at Rd 11

Swan for most games polled

Merry Christmas everyone!
 

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Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

5278 Montagna 1.55 H2H
5273 Dal Santo 1.90 H2H
3909 Brown 2.25 TEAM
3967 Deledio 1.55 TEAM
3987 LeCras 3.75 TEAM

Thoughts on this multi?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

lions_den said:
5278 Montagna 1.55 H2H
5273 Dal Santo 1.90 H2H
3909 Brown 2.25 TEAM
3967 Deledio 1.55 TEAM
3987 LeCras 3.75 TEAM

Thoughts on this multi?
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Risky, but hey, they don't call it gambling for nothing. I think there are better risks out there though.

For what it's worth I love Montagna to outpoll Boyd at those odds but I couldn't split Goodes/Dal Santo, have Black marginally ahead of Brown, Deledio best for Richmond but only by a couple of votes and Selwood beating LeCras although that could also go a few different ways.
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

has anyone thought of putting the same amount of money on vince and thomson? they are both at 2.5, so if either win, your guarenteed profit! any thoughts?
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

:( ive been trying to Lay Adam Goodes but odds have gone from 12.00 (last night to $20.00 now. He has absolute no chance in winning this. ( i think i may have pushed the odds up)
 
Re: Brownlow Medal part 3

carlton2007 said:
has anyone thought of putting the same amount of money on vince and thomson? they are both at 2.5, so if either win, your guarenteed profit! any thoughts?
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not bad if you think the values there... your basically betting for both at 1.25/1 if you think its worth it go for it but to make any money your going to have to put both in a multi so probly not worth it
 

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Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 3)

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