Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Was fairly inaccurate but kicked a nice 50m goal that sunk us. Was thinking Osbourne too though, (didn't rate Brown/Burgoyne's games).

Also took a great intercept that went through for a behind.

The coaches votes are by no means definitive, but I'm fairly sure the 1 vote will go to one of these players (or Scotland).
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/94935/default.aspx

10 Lance Franklin (Haw)
8 Luke Hodge (Haw)
3 Chris Judd (Carl)
3 Stephen Gilham (Haw)
2 Michael Osborne (Haw)
2 Clinton Young (Haw)
1 Shaun Burgoyne (Haw)
1 Campbell Brown (Haw)

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Love looking at the coach's votes too, but to have Judd and no Scotland takes away it's credibility, Scotland easily the best blue.

Don't think it matters too much for the 1 vote though, won't be to anyone worthwhile.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think I'm one of the few with Hodge not up there. I've got him on 6, doesn't poll well generally and hawks have been terrible. The place at 17 is possible if Hawks get a run on I guess.

This is generally true but he did get 15 and 16 votes in 2005 and 2007.

He has also moved more into the midfield this year.

I think Hodge is one of those smokies as he has had a lot of standout games this year.

On the other hand, the hawks haven't won many which will hurt.

Mark him down for 3 for round 1
2 in round 5
1 in round 8
at least 2 if not 3 in round 9.

I'd think if the hawks go on a good run in the next few weeks, that Hodge could well be in contention by the end of the year.

Odds are probably right though.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Love looking at the coach's votes too, but to have Judd and no Scotland takes away it's credibility, Scotland easily the best blue.

Don't think it matters too much for the 1 vote though, won't be to anyone worthwhile.

Agreed on both counts.

Judd got it a lot but butchered it on the day, which is unusual for him.

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I just got on McDonald most votes melb at $11 on centrebet.Easy money so far, way over the odds

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Nice pickup there Stuzi.

In regards to Centrebet, when you sign up do you need to supply a copy of your credit card, or are you able to deposit bets via PayPal? And do you need to send off any identification details or do they verify online?

Also, just on the value they are offering; A. Swallow is massive value at $15 for the Kangas, who I currently have 2 votes ahead of the next best in Wells. Obviously being so early into the season it could go either way, but still very decent. Wells is also decent value at $6 as well.

Judd at $1.80 looks a no brainer at this stage, but only value if Centrebet allow you to multi him with another player who is offering value at long odds.

Others speculative picks I like at this stage are: Pendlebury ($5.25), Hayes ($6).

Just an update on the odds for the players I mentioned:

Swallow is now $5.50. (Was $15)
Wells is now $14. (Was $6)
Hayes is now $3.50. (Was $6)
Pendlebury is now $10. (Was $5.25 - WTF?)

Swallow has shortened by a ton, as I predicted, so too Hayes. Wells is not without a chance and is decent odds, but I have him a few votes behind Swallow still.

Still wondering how and why Pendlebury has now drifted to $10, behind Cloke, Didak, Beams, and Ball. Wow! That's value if I ever saw it!

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The best advice I can give is to listen to Brownlow King. This guy REALLY knows his stuff. I follow it fairly closely, and have done pretty well over the last couple of years, but BK is all over it and has helped me so much

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hayes looks like he's moving towards true value, and i cant believe those odds for pendlebury and also Wells who i have leading north's votes, just in front of harvey and swallow.

For other odds which i think are quite off the mark:

Stanton at $2.80, i have him on two votes and dont see him having a chance with reaching Watson (possibly hille), taking into account i only think essendon may win a handful of more games for the season.

Bartel at $12, i only have him 3 votes behind ablett and in the unlikely event that ablett was to have a form slump / injury, he may be great value.

As already said, Mcdonald on $11 looks great at the moment.

Really like Rodan at $7 / Pearce @ $11 for port.

Montagna looks far too short at $3.75 up to this stage. Goddard and Dal Santo, should both be in front of him.

ah just wish you could multi during the season

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hayes is quality. Normally put money on 2-3 players pre-season and Hayes has been one of them the last 3 or so years at 67/1 for most of them. Was leading the count one year IIRC until he done his knee against the Roos and I managed to collect $175 on him last year for a place. Would have been $800+ had it not been for a freakish Ablett!

But a great thread this one. Definitely a few interesting count predictions!

Seems though since the Carlton flogging And Thompsons outburst on his midfield that Ablett hasn't been as prominent I think. (despite the swans game since he always dominates us) so it could reduce his chances at back to back this year perhaps

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The best advice I can give is to listen to Brownlow King. This guy REALLY knows his stuff. I follow it fairly closely, and have done pretty well over the last couple of years, but BK is all over it and has helped me so much

Thanks for the rap. I'm putting in the same amount of time and effort as last year so am very confident of cleaning up again.
I backed Hayes today @ $23 and took him into Geel. Also put more on Judd and Judd into Geel.
I'd be happy to lay Pav, Sandilands, Barlow, Brown, Swan, Cooney, Hodge, Bartel, Goddard and Ablett ( may be up there but prohibitive odds ) at this stage.
I put a tiny bit on Watson as well as reckon he's over the odds at $126. Don't think he can win but shouldn't be that price.
This weekend could shake up the market. Ablett, Judd and Hayes all have easy games so any of them could shorten significantly after this week.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Agree with the comment on Stanton being way too short.

He's the K Cornes of Essendon...racks up the pill but doesn't poll.

Lots of value in the team votes.

Judd also excellent value now; can see him polling 2-3 this Sunday.

Bartel and Chapman great records Vs Melbourne so a chance for the 2-3 tomorrow.

Pav the big mover with Sportsbet, into 14s now. Freo a coin toss between the two guns.

Winderlich starting to get into some form; could be a smokey for the Dons...won it with Watson last year after starting the night at 17s.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Argh! Didn't get home in time to put some money on my two favs Judd and Hayes before the bounce tonight, as i've been meaning to do all week. Watch them now shorten a ton and punish me.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Round 9
Collingwood V Geelong:
3. Jimmy Bartel
2. James Kelly
1. Dayne Beams

North Melbourne V Western Bulldogs:
3. Adam Cooney
2. Brian Lake
1. Matthew Boyd

Sydney V Fremantle:
3. David Mundy
2. Matthew Pavlich
1. Nick Malceski

Essendon V Richmond:
3. David Hille
2. Jack Riewoldt
1. Leroy Jetta

Melbourne V Port Adelaide:
3. Aaron Davey
2. Neville Jetta
1. Travis Boak

Adelaide V Brisbane:
3. Richard Douglas
2. Ash McGrath
1. Nathan Van Berlo

Carlton V Hawthorn:
3. Luke Hodge
2. Lance Franklin
1. Jordan Lewis

West Coast V St. Kilda
3. Lenny Hayes
2. Brendon Goddard
1. Adam Selwood

Leaderboard:
1. Michael Barlow (12)
2. Gary Ablett (11)
3. Chris Judd (10)
4. Matthew Pavlich (9)
5. Luke Hodge (9)
6. Daniel Wells (8)
7. Scott Pendlebury (8)
8. Dane Swan (8)
9. Jimmy Bartel (8)
10. Aaron Sandilands (7)

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Anyone giving Judd a vote in the Carl game ? Looks like Gibbs 3 and Murphy 2.

 

[Whitad07]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Balentine i think his name is, got recruited last year i think. He wont win the brownlow, but he'l rack up the votes, plays for freo

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Balentine i think his name is, got recruited last year i think. He wont win the brownlow, but he'l rack up the votes, plays for freo

Ballantyne? Hmmm, don't think he's prominent enough to be taking votes off Pav, Sandi and Barlow.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Ballantyne will be lucky to get a handful of votes for the season.

BK, i have the same 3,2 (as im sure everyone does) for the Carlton game and have given 1 to Judd, although i think Garlett/Scotland/Robinson may be a chance for the 1

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

yep gibbs, murphy should be spot on for 3 and 2

hannerbry(sp?) played well for swans today

 

[AG]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I gave Hanners the 3. Hard game to give votes for. Mitchell finished the game well. Franklin was good. Mumford and Kennedy were good for us.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

yeh so did i, i went 3. hannebery 2. Lewis 1. Mitchell

how did people go for the tigers game, i found it one of the hardest games, the votes will only be split between Deledio, Cotchin, Newman, Tuck and Martin. It's just a matter of order, i ended up with 3. Tuck, 2. Deledio, 1. Newman. Although im not very confident because i felt many of tucks possessions were really inneffective and unnoticeable, although deledio on the other hand took a few standout marks.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

yeh so did i, i went 3. hannebery 2. Lewis 1. Mitchell

how did people go for the tigers game, i found it one of the hardest games, the votes will only be split between Deledio, Cotchin, Newman, Tuck and Martin. It's just a matter of order, i ended up with 3. Tuck, 2. Deledio, 1. Newman. Although im not very confident because i felt many of tucks possessions were really inneffective and unnoticeable, although deledio on the other hand took a few standout marks.

I watched about half of the match and thought that Riewoldt and Nason were good. Goals were worth 3 each.
Forget DELEDIO as he simply doesn't poll.
There won't be many movers in the overall winner betting after the weekend. Brown, Ablett, Judd, Hayes were all good but none were outstanding. The other favs weren't great.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Pavlich should poll again BK I gave him 2. No one else in my top 10 got votes this week bar Judd with 1.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Pavlich should poll again BK I gave him 2. No one else in my top 10 got votes this week bar Judd with 1.

I watched the Freo game and gave Pav 0.5 ( 50/50 for 1 vote ). Hard to see him getting 2 imo. I gave Judd 1, Ablett 0.75, Hayes 0.75 and Brown 1.75. Brown no doubt isn't in yr top 10.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

What were your votes for the freo game?

I had

3. K.Bradley
2. M.Pavlich
1. D.Mundy

Ibbotson, Duffield and Ballantyne could easily get votes though.

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i thought cousins played well for the tigers, was a shit match so abit of a lottery