Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[97-98]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hello all,

This is the first time I have been on here for the year so I just want to take the opportunity to thank all the people for their suggestions and tips for last years brownlow medal count.

A huge and special thankyou to the "Brownlow King" for your hard work and accurate thoughts.
I outlayed 2k and made a profit of 19500k on the night.
This profit mostly came from a lot of 5 and 10 dollar boxed multis from group and team votes.

So I would like to thank everyone so much for their help.

I look forward to posting and reading everyones thoughts again this year.

Obviously a typo or "Brownlow King" deserves for than a special thank you.
A nice house in an affluent suburb would do for starters.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think he means $19,500. Well I'm going to assume so anyway

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think he means $19,500. Well I'm going to assume so anyway

Sorry guys,
$19,500 is the figure

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Sorry guys,
$19,500 is the figure

Bugger I was excited for a fleeting moment as well ! $19,500 aint to be sneezed at so well done. Let's see if you can triple the win this year !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i have douglas clear leader for Adelaide on 5 or 6

Forget Adelaide and forget Richmond. My theory this year is that I will not bother with the bottom 4 or so sides. Simply too hard. Remember Deledio who rolled heaps of us last year.
That Richmond vs Port game on the weekend is a deadset raffle for votes I reckon. Richmond, Adelaide and probably Port are all v hard to pick.

 

[jimbob7085]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here are my leaders for each team...

Adelaide - McLeod, Van Berlo, Douglas (3).
Brisbane - Brown (8), Brennan (7).
Carlton - Judd (15), Simpson (6).
Collingwood - Swan (7), Pendlebury (6).
Essendon - Watson (11), Jetta (4).
Fremantle - Barlow (11), Pavlich (10).
Geelong - Ablett (14), Bartel (8).
Hawthorn - Luke Hodge (9), Sam Mitchell (4).
Melbourne - James McDonald (6), Brad Green (5).
North Melbourne - Wells (10), Harvey (6).
Port Adelaide - Boak (6), Rodan (4).
Richmond - Deledio (3), Tuck (3).
St Kilda - Hayes (11), Riewoldt and Goddard (6).
Sydney - McGlynn, Hannebery (6).
West Coast - Priddis (6), Naitanui and Kennedy (3).
Western Bulldogs - Cooney (7), Griffen (6).

McDonald and Wells look good value as well as Swallow since Harvey is injured.

Judd and Watson have are almost certainties to win their clubs votes and Hayes will soon become as certain as them IMO.

Here's my Brownlow dependant on only statistics. I have figured out a Champion Data to Brownlow Vote Ratio from the past 3 years and have scaled the influence of each year by giving more weight towards 2009, than 2008 and 2008 to 2007. Here's the leaders for that too...

Adelaide - Douglas (5.52), Goodwin (1.95).
Brisbane - Brown (13.14), Black (5.52).
Carlton - Judd (13.92), Betts (6.26).
Collingwood - Swan (7.21), Cloke (7.17).
Essendon - Watson (15.24), Stanton (10.90).
Fremantle - Sandilands (12.13), Pavlich (11.25).
Geelong - Ablett (14.29), Bartel (9.11).
Hawthorn - Hodge (20.33), Mitchell (3.80).
Melbourne - McDonald (12.89), Trengove (4.60).
North Melbourne - Harvey (3.79), Rawlings (2.85).
Port Adelaide - Boak (6.63), Rodan (3.62).
Richmond - Riewoldt (2.76), Nahas (2.21).
St Kilda - Montagna (10.09), Dal Santo (7.21).
Sydney - McGlynn (5.15), Malceski (4.97).
West Coast - Matt Priddis (2.87), Kennedy (2.76).
Western Bulldogs - Giansiricusa (6.85), Boyd (5.98).

My formula seems to have overrated a few players like Stanton and McDonald and severely underrated Wells and Pendlebury. Hodge is an absolute certainty so far by the formula, as is McDonald, Brown and Judd.

nce the years over I will use this information as well as my own Brownlow votes to frame markets to pick out value and hope that my system is pretty accurate.

Get on Judd for the Brownlow. He is way under the odds and is at about $10 at the TAB.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Forget Adelaide and forget Richmond. My theory this year is that I will not bother with the bottom 4 or so sides. Simply too hard. Remember Deledio who rolled heaps of us last year.
That Richmond vs Port game on the weekend is a deadset raffle for votes I reckon. Richmond, Adelaide and probably Port are all v hard to pick.

Normally I agree, but last year also showed there was some real value with Tredrea, Pavlich and Davey who all got up. Deledio of course didn't, but I think it works both ways in that if there are only 4-5 wins then you can rule out a lot of games.

I agree though, wouldn't touch Richmond. Douglas has been superb, if he has another great game in a win and Adelaide don't win any more I'd have a look.

Port is anyone's game (although I do like Rodan).

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Mostly a subscribe post.

Like to keep track of you guys doing your own personal polls. Work has restricted my viewing to 2-3 games a week if I am lucky, so cannot really comment on most games.

Really liking Hayes and Chapman though, as I make sure I catch the Geelong game, and most of the Saints.

And just a point to AG. I don't see Staker getting a vote on Saturday Night. Power is a clear 3. After that, I think you should be looking at Black or Rich, or maybe Johnstone. Staker isn't one I would mark down as eye catching for the umps. Black and Power had an amazing 3rd qtr. Combined for 25-26 possessions. Amazing. Black was also the one that delivered (albeit not directly) to Fev for the sealer.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Forget Adelaide and forget Richmond. My theory this year is that I will not bother with the bottom 4 or so sides. Simply too hard. Remember Deledio who rolled heaps of us last year.
That Richmond vs Port game on the weekend is a deadset raffle for votes I reckon. Richmond, Adelaide and probably Port are all v hard to pick.

This is true, bottom 4 sides are harder to gauge, however i think there is a big difference between backing deledio at around $1.60 last year and backing Douglas at $4+ at the moment. It's harder to say someone from a bottom 4 team is 100% home, but at $4+ odds you dont need them to be a certainty.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

There is a big problem with Chapman - the umpires remember those who sledge.

Remember a few years back? Chapman called an umpire a cheat; cost him a 50m penalty but I think in the long term it would cost him votes.

Backed him at 250-1 last year however I should have remember the sledge he gave them. The 6 goal game BK highlighted shows the umps don't like the great man. Definitely should've polled more than he did.

The year after winning the Brownlow is interesting too...the media fascination with GAJ makes it a bit different IMO; should still poll well.

Judd will get 2 votes on the weekend even though it should be Gibbs > Murphy > Judd.

The game was the first that Murphy and Gibbs got votes from me for the year; both had been performing below average in the first 9 games.

Best value at this stage is the $23 on offer for the Pav at TAB. We all know about key forwards not polling but he's more than a key forward. He does poll well.

2005 - 14
2006 - 15
2007 - 15
2008 - 17
2009 - 10

Think he is great value; I actually have him leading atm...never before have Freo been in such good form; Sandis form has dropped off a tad; Barlow won't poll as well as he should and Mundy isn't a great one to poll votes. Kepler hack has actually got 5 votes from me in the past 2 weeks with Pav still getting votes.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/cheat-insult-cuts-deepest/story-e6frf9mx-1111116978249

Cheat insult cuts deepest: umpires' director Jeff Gieschen

AFL umpires' director Jeff Gieschen last night warned all players that "cheat" was the most insulting word you could direct at a umpire.
"We know bad language has been there through the ages, but the umpires are obviously very sensitive being called a cheat," Gieschen said.

"It gets right to the heart of the integrity of what they're on about."

Gieschen was responding to the latest sledging controversy involving Geelong star Paul Chapman on Saturday.

Chapman called umpire Michael Vozzo a cheat after he awarded a free kick to Bulldog Farren Ray at Skilled Stadium.

...............

It is not the first time Chapman has taken a crack at an umpire.

At Skilled Stadium in 2006, Chapman is believed to have turned to umpire Darren Goldspink and muttered words to the effect: "Why don't you look after both sides?"

It is alleged Goldspink bit back with: "Why don't you get a kick."

Gieschen spoke to Vozzo at halftime on Saturday and was quickly told the matter would go no further.

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

This may be a bit unrealistic to some , but I feel Freo for the minor premiership at $11 is awesome value.

I looked at their draw and it is not all that difficult.
They should win every home game also.

Thoughts??

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

This may be a bit unrealistic to some , but I feel Freo for the minor premiership at $11 is awesome value.

I looked at their draw and it is not all that difficult.
They should win every home game also.

Thoughts??

Punting board ?

 

[carpsi]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Punting board ?

Gone down to $9 now tabsportsbet

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Leaderboard
15 - G. Ablett
13 - C. Judd
12 - L. Hayes (+)
11 - L. Hodge
10 - M. Barlow
9 - J. Watson (+)
8 - A. Cooney
8 - J. Bartel
8 - A. Sandilands
8 - D. Swan
8 - A. Swallow
7 – D. Mundy (+)
7 - M. Pavlich
7 - S. Pendlebury
7 - J. Brennan*
7 - R. O'Keefe
6 - M. Murphy (+)
6 - D. Hannebery (+)
6 - N. Dal Santo (+)
6 - L. Montagna (+)
6 - B. Goddard
6 - M. Boyd
6 - M. Priddis
6 - J. Brown
6 - T. Boak

For the full round wrap up, with each individual games' votes and discussion, visit:

http://www.brownlowtalk.blogspot.com

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

The 5 I like at the moment are:

Adelaide: Douglas $4.25
Carlton: Judd $1.60
Freo: Pavlich $5
Port: Rodan $7
Stk: Hayes $3.50

(Actually, I haven't checked the updated odds, this was last week).

Multied was $833!

EDIT: Judd is into 1.5, Pav 3.75, Hayes 2.65 and Rodan 6! Grrrr haha

Guessing u got these off centrebet, is it allowing u to do multis? wont let me for some reason, btw off topic how u going in DT this year?

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeah, centrebet. They won't let you multi them, everyone is hoping TAB Sportsbet will let you when they open their odds (Good chance they will).

Ranked 527th in DT, happy enough

Good leaderboard WalkerTheStar, people aren't rating pavlich this year? Got 10 votes last year and they only had 6 wins. They've had 8 wins already and he's kicked more goals as well already. Sandilands/Barlow to take votes of course, but I think Pav is a good chance to place atm.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

guess BK cleaned them up to much and they are scared to release them this year i remember reading somewhere they lost alot of money.

 

[Kahuna]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd $1.60 is great value, will win it providing he doesn't get injured.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd $1.60 is great value, will win it providing he doesn't get injured.

Think he's $1.50 now on centrebet? But yeah, I'll be throwing him in majority of my multies.

 

[demons 123]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

that leaderboards awesome

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Argh! Didn't get home in time to put some money on my two favs Judd and Hayes before the bounce tonight, as i've been meaning to do all week. Watch them now shorten a ton and punish me.

Phew! For my sake it was very lucky that Judd and Hayes both had respectively quiet games last round, and don't seem to have changed in odds that much, if at all.

Just went searching around for the best value, and placed a little each on Judd for the win/place at $9/$3, and Hayes at $26/$6.

Some good value there, and moreso with Judd's odds for a place. Quietly confident he can maintain his current form and at least finish in the top 3, if not win it outright. Hayes is a favourite of mine, and I believe he has progressed from being just a smokey to a genuine contender alongside the aforementioned Judd and Ablett.

 

[Rick88]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here is my leader board after round 10. As I mentioned in my last post, I have written in brackets how many other games that the player may poll in, but haven't received votes.

13 - Judd
12 - Ablett (2)
10 - Barlow (1)
10 - Pavlich (1)
10 - Selwood
9 - Sandilands (4)
9 - Hayes (3)
9 - Hodge (3)
9 - Dal Santo (1)

Also, as other people have mentioned, players have really sruggled to poll the year after they have brought home carlie (ie. Bartel and Cooney). Do you think we should be giving Ablett votes more sparingly and judging harder (like how the umpires may be doing)? Have people done this in the past and found it effective?

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

guess BK cleaned them up to much and they are scared to release them this year i remember reading somewhere they lost alot of money.

You got it, I did and so did many others I'm pretty sure. I'd say that the TAB in Melb / Syd will bring out team votes and multis around round 17 ( which is around last year's timing ).
I'd say that we had all better clean them up as you never know how long they will keep them going. The good news is that Tabcorp make squillions so can cop a loss in some areas. private bookies shut down punters who get an edge.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Seems like a lot of leaderboards are quite similar atm, this is mine going into Round 11:

13 - Ablett
11 - Judd
10 - Barlow
9 - Boyd, Pendlebury, Montagna,
8 - Hayes, Hodge, Watson, J. Brown, Swan, Bartel, Murphy, Dal Santo
7 - Pavlich, Sandilands, J. Selwood