Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[D BRIDGE]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd has played in 9 of Carltons 11 wins because he missed the first 3 games.
id Give Carlton 1 more win in round 22 against Freo but that may not happen.
So Judd should play in 10 wins. He would need to poll at an average of probably 2.5 for every win and that has got to be hard plus 25 votes still might not get the job done.
Im not sure if he could poll in any losing games.
Im not sure how many winning games he may miss on but one thing is for sure winning it from playing in 10 wins will not be as easy as people are thinking.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Carlton no chance against Freo in round 22 . Freo have won something like their last 11 out of 13 games against Carlton. That's not to say Judd won't poll 2-3 votes though. With Crowley injured and JVB not in the side Fremantle don't have a predominant tagger in the team currently.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd has played in 9 of Carltons 11 wins because he missed the first 3 games.

He's actually played in 10 wins, we lost 2 of our first 3 games.

My Leaderboard:
23 - Judd
21 - Swan
19 - Ablett
18 - Harvey, Selwood
17 - Hodge
16 - Hayes , Pendlebury
15 - Pavlich, Sandilands
14 - Barlow, Montagna, Dal Santo, Goodes
13 - Ball, Bartel, Swallow, Goddard
11 - Thompson, Watson, Chapman, Sylvia, Green, Cooney, Boyd

Club by Club
Adelaide - Thompson 11, Douglas 9, Tippett 7
Brisbane - Brown 10, Rischitelli 8, Black 6, Brennan 6
Carlton - Judd 23, Murphy 8
Collingwood - Swan 21, Pendlebury 16, Ball 13, Didak 10
Essendon - Watson 11, Stanton 7
Fremantle - Pavlich 15, Sandilands 15, Barlow 14
Geelong - Ablett 19, Selwood 18, Bartel 13, Chapman 11
Hawthorn - Hodge 17, Mitchell 10, Rioli 8
Melbourne - Sylvia 11, Green 11
North - Harvey 18, Swallow 13
Port - Rodan 10, Kornes 7, Cassisi 7
Rich - Riewoldt 10, Deledio 9, Newman 7
Stk - Hayes 16, Montagna 14, NDS 14, Goddard 13
Syd - Goodes 14, Jack 8, Hanneberry/Mcveigh/Malceski 7
WCE - Priddis 7, Naitanui 5
Wbd - Cooney 11, Boyd 11, Griffen 10, Gia 9, Hall 9, Cross 8

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Pretty damning stat. To see Goodes get 4, Black 12, Judd 15, Cooney 3, Bartel 10 it definitely has an effect.

As BK said, big game this Friday night, will also be going - I think we have a chance, albeit a small one. Going for 3 in a row against Geelong!

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

ok my leaderboard.

judd 26
hodge 25
swan 23
hayes 22
ablett 20
pendlbry 19
sellwood 18
bartel 17
goodes/harvey/barlo/watson/thompson/goddard/ all around 15


teams
Adelaide - Thompson 13-14 (too high maby?), dougie 8-9
Brisbane - black 11, brown 9 brennen 8
Carlton - Judd 26
Collingwood - Swan 23, pendlebury 19 Didak 9
Essendon - Watson 15 (so far ahead)
Fremantle - Barlow 15, Sandilands 12-13 pav 8-11
Geelong - Ablett 20, Selwood 18, Bartel 17
Hawthorn - Hodge 25, Mitchell 9, Rioli 5.
Melbourne - Sylvia 10, Green 8,mcdonald 8, molony 8 Davey 7.
North - Harvey 14-15, Swallow 12, Wells 7.
Port - Cassisi 10, Boak 9-10, Rodan 7-8
Richmond - Newman 9($34?).Deledio 7, Tuck 8, Riewoldt 7,
St Kilda - Hayes 22, Goddard 12-15, Montagna 11 and Riewoldt 9.
Sydney - Goodes 13-15, bolton 12, jack 10, Hannebery 7-8 (think goodes should have them covered here.)
West Coast - Priddis 10, nicnat 6, LeCras 4,
Western Bulldogs - Cooney 15-16, Giansiricusa 11, Boyd 11-12.

my bankers will probly be thompson, watson(best bet), judd(probly not worth it now but SURLY no risk)
then goodes, harvey, hayes(should be good value will include in most), cooney
then sellwood(gee), pendlbry, barlow, boak/cassisi.

bold ones are the ones i like

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Give a couple of Swan's votes to Pendlebury and I agree with just about everything!

It'll be interesting to see how Ablett polls after winning last year.

Here is all the winners since 2000 and how they went the year after;


2009 - Ablett - 30 votes - 2010 ?

2008 - Cooney 24 votes - 3 votes 2009

2007 - Bartel 29 votes - 10 votes 2008

2006 - Goodes 26 votes - 20 votes 2007

2005 - Cousins 20 votes - 13 votes 2006

2004 - Judd 30 votes - 15 votes 2005

2003 - Ricciuto 22 votes - 23 votes 2004
Goodes 22 votes - 4 votes 2004
Buckley 22 votes - 4 votes 2004

2002 - Black 25 votes - Black 12 votes 2003

2001 - Akermanis 23 votes - 8 votes 2002

2000 - Woewodin - 24 votes - 4 votes 2001

Ricciuto is the only one who's been able to back it up and to a lesser extent Goodes after winning his second.

Yeah i too like the look of it but one thing that stands out is Pav in front off Barlow and Sandi....Could he really pip the later 2??!!!!

I guess you will say yes as thats your tally but i would like some views on why you (anyone) would have him win over there?

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeah i too like the look of it but one thing that stands out is Pav in front off Barlow and Sandi....Could he really pip the later 2??!!!!

I guess you will say yes as thats your tally but i would like some views on why you (anyone) would have him win over there?

Even with Sandi*

I've given him 14 votes in the first half of the year and only 1 vote since then. He was super in the first half and was a real lader, will poll well - especially if Barlow doesn't.

However, he probably couldn't be on much more then 15 and I think the odds for Fremantle are about right (Pavlich $4.50). He's slight value but not really, and I will only put him in 1-3 out of my 50ish Multis.

Tbh though, I'm not on the Barlow hype. Missing so many games means it only takes 1-2 games where he should poll and he doesn't and he ends up less then Sandilands and as I have it he will only get 14 anyway.

Oh and he has no polling history either. I'm staying pretty clear of Fremantle.

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Interested in the votes people gave for a few North Melbourne games

Round 6, 8, 11, 13, 16, 17

 

[Grimmjow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Interested in the votes people gave for a few North Melbourne games

Round 6, 8, 11, 13, 16, 17

Rnd 6
3. Swallow 2. Wells 1. SThompson/Green

Rnd 8*
3. Goldstein 2. Swallow 1. Boomer

Rnd 11*
3. Boomer/Swallow 2. Johnstone 1. Swallow/Boomer

Rnd13
3. Boomer 2. Shultz 1. Hansen

Rnd16
3. Swallow 2. Adams 1. Wells

Rnd 17
3. Watson 2. Swallow 1. Winderlich/Boomer


Not entirely convinced with Rnd 8/11 - Could shake up North's Leaderboard with Boomer/Swallow.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Really liking Judd atm with his polling form and the run home he has. He seems to dominate at Subi.

Will be doing the Judd/Pies/Geelong/St Kilda doubles this week and depending on how i think Hayes, Selwood and Pendlebury went i will be doing the same.

Also with the port votes i am really liking the cassisi and boaks chances i think i will use them in a few bets as both of them have great odds to be covers as well.

Edit: also with votes for the medals do the umpires only know who got the medal or do they see the total votes before they make the votes. Just curious to know considering with casissi's good form in the showdowns this season.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd has played in 9 of Carltons 11 wins because he missed the first 3 games.
id Give Carlton 1 more win in round 22 against Freo but that may not happen.
So Judd should play in 10 wins. He would need to poll at an average of probably 2.5 for every win and that has got to be hard plus 25 votes still might not get the job done.
Im not sure if he could poll in any losing games.
Im not sure how many winning games he may miss on but one thing is for sure winning it from playing in 10 wins will not be as easy as people are thinking.

I think Judd will get a few in the losing games. Depending on what the umpires think he could easily got 3 against us but considering we won easy i think he'll get 1-2 votes. I cant remember many of his losing games but hes definately a big chance this season

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Rnd 6
3. Swallow 2. Wells 1. SThompson/Green

Rnd 8*
3. Goldstein 2. Swallow 1. Boomer

Rnd 11*
3. Boomer/Swallow 2. Johnstone 1. Swallow/Boomer

Rnd13
3. Boomer 2. Shultz 1. Hansen

Rnd16
3. Swallow 2. Adams 1. Wells

Rnd 17
3. Watson 2. Swallow 1. Winderlich/Boomer


Not entirely convinced with Rnd 8/11 - Could shake up North's Leaderboard with Boomer/Swallow.

Thanks

 

[echelon22]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Edit: also with votes for the medals do the umpires only know who got the medal or do they see the total votes before they make the votes. Just curious to know considering with casissi's good form in the showdowns this season.

Not sure what the umps know before they give their votes but I took a look through the games where a BoG medal is awarded a couple of years ago, apart from 1 or 2 surprises the medal winner got the 3 votes. I generally automatically give them 3 in my count, I think trying to incorporate any conservatism into that would just bring the overall accuracy down

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Interested also in the round 1 North game Vs Port.

Harvey kicked 3 goals but got reported for a punch to someone's guts. Didn't get suspended but I wonder will he struggle to get some votes here because he got reported?

 

[chrispaul3]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey guys just wondering where highest team votes odds are shown already? ive seen some people talking about odds but cant seem to find them?

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

hey guys just wondering where highest team votes odds are shown already? ive seen some people talking about odds but cant seem to find them?

Centrebet mate.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd to win the Brownlow / Thompson, Goodes, Watson most team votes / Geelong flag @ 350-1

Anyone know if the TAB will alow this above multi??? Or will it be one of those ones that are not allowed to b multied together...

Wanna put a lazy tenner on it

 

[chrispaul3]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Centrebet mate.

awesome thanks bud

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd to win the Brownlow / Thompson, Goodes, Watson most team votes / Geelong flag @ 350-1

Anyone know if the TAB will alow this above multi??? Or will it be one of those ones that are not allowed to b multied together...

Wanna put a lazy tenner on it

pretty sure they dont allow brownlow outright win into brownlow most team votes.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Really liking Judd atm with his polling form and the run home he has. He seems to dominate at Subi.

Will be doing the Judd/Pies/Geelong/St Kilda doubles this week and depending on how i think Hayes, Selwood and Pendlebury went i will be doing the same.

Also with the port votes i am really liking the cassisi and boaks chances i think i will use them in a few bets as both of them have great odds to be covers as well.

Edit: also with votes for the medals do the umpires only know who got the medal or do they see the total votes before they make the votes. Just curious to know considering with casissi's good form in the showdowns this season.

Guys, I dont see there being a point at this stage in going brownlow winner 3 premiership contender team doubles, eg: Judd into Cats/Pies/Saints. You may as well put the whole lot on Judd winning outright. You are really hoping that Saints win with this strategy as they are at odds greater than $3.

For example:
$10 on Judd into Pies @ 39 return = $390
$10 on Judd into Cats @ 39 return = $390
$10 on Judd into Saints @ 58.5 return = $580

or

$30 Judd outright @ 13 = $390.

As you can see, you are really banking on the saints pulling off an upset for you to get ahead with this tactic at this stage. THe off chance that Dogs or Hawks pull something out (highly unlikely as it may be) and win it, all your bets are stuffed. It is understandable some weeks ago when you could get the pies at say $6 and cats at $4, but at $3, hardly seems worth it to go this strategy.

 

[twarby]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Judd to win the Brownlow / Thompson, Goodes, Watson most team votes / Geelong flag @ 350-1

Anyone know if the TAB will alow this above multi??? Or will it be one of those ones that are not allowed to b multied together...

Wanna put a lazy tenner on it

they wont allow that that because thompson goodes and watson are all in the winners group

 

[Jake_14]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Really hoping gaz catches a cold @ training this week and juddster grabs the 3

 

[mike262]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Sounded a bit harsh their mate, I wasn't meaning to take a shot at you. This thread is great because all the different methods and theories come together with experience over the last couple of years to get a consensus that the bookies don't have. I rate all the contributors in this thread and lets hope we take them to the cleaners on the big night.

sorry, wasnt trying to be harsh, just trying to explain my process.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

sorry, wasnt trying to be harsh, just trying to explain my process.

He was apologizing to you for sounding harsh

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Guys, I dont see there being a point at this stage in going brownlow winner 3 premiership contender team doubles, eg: Judd into Cats/Pies/Saints. You may as well put the whole lot on Judd winning outright. You are really hoping that Saints win with this strategy as they are at odds greater than $3.

I was just about to say that, imagine if the Dogs find something and win the flag. But really, after the chas you should be guaranteed a profit (and most likely a large one) even if you hedge off.