-
LIVE: Sydney v Brisbane Lions - 2:30PM AEST Sat
Squiggle tips Lions at 61% chance -- What's your tip? -- Ticketing Buy, Sell -- Teams on Thurs »
-
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Grand Final
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
Round PF Winner: Still Me
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)
- Thread starter GrandBlue
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
well if you try to do it based on purely performance and a player like Judd is getting 20 votes up against swan on 23 who's polling history isnt as good you could assume that judd could beat swan (there was 1-2 games where i gave judd a 2 and he could easily get a 3)
Its kinda just raw data for the year of 2010 and you can use previous polling history to reinforce leaders. ie. Harvey leading Kangas in 2010 + previous polling history is good. Therefore he should win.
I Guess im adding the 2nd variable of polling history after the performance count.
well if you try to do it based on purely performance and a player like Judd is getting 20 votes up against swan on 23 who's polling history isnt as good you could assume that judd could beat swan (there was 1-2 games where i gave judd a 2 and he could easily get a 3)
Its kinda just raw data for the year of 2010 and you can use previous polling history to reinforce leaders. ie. Harvey leading Kangas in 2010 + previous polling history is good. Therefore he should win.
I Guess im adding the 2nd variable of polling history after the performance count.
- Jul 25, 2010
- 2,182
- 1,206
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Yeah, I'm just throwing out the possibility that it may have been logistically easier for the TAB to have the system just deny ALL Brownlow multi's, regardless of what they're packaged with while they better calculate the odds ... having the outright winner as the only exception.
Yeah, I'm just throwing out the possibility that it may have been logistically easier for the TAB to have the system just deny ALL Brownlow multi's, regardless of what they're packaged with while they better calculate the odds ... having the outright winner as the only exception.
- Feb 28, 2005
- 518
- 204
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- New York Giants, Manchester City
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Grimmjow, your A Selwood analysis is spot on in my opinion, he hasn't got a clear BOG all year. Priddis is a much more eye catching in his approach and is a tough inside player. Will most likely not be touching WC at this stage, but if the other poster wants to lose his money than by all means chuck A Selwood in multis. We will all see come Brownlow night.
Grimmjow, your A Selwood analysis is spot on in my opinion, he hasn't got a clear BOG all year. Priddis is a much more eye catching in his approach and is a tough inside player. Will most likely not be touching WC at this stage, but if the other poster wants to lose his money than by all means chuck A Selwood in multis. We will all see come Brownlow night.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
im really liking Pendleburys next two games, last two games against Crows last year he had 29 and 27 possesions, and polled 2 votes in the game in which they beat the crows..
so he should def be around the mark this week,
against Hawthorn he has averaged 27 possesions in his last 3, but 2 of those were large losses, so we should expect another reasonable game in round 22.
the same could be said for Judd, who has dominated against geelong of late, and same with Freo where he averages mid 30s over his last 3..
I think these 2 have the best upside out of the top 6 fancys and should be continued to bet on
im really liking Pendleburys next two games, last two games against Crows last year he had 29 and 27 possesions, and polled 2 votes in the game in which they beat the crows..
so he should def be around the mark this week,
against Hawthorn he has averaged 27 possesions in his last 3, but 2 of those were large losses, so we should expect another reasonable game in round 22.
the same could be said for Judd, who has dominated against geelong of late, and same with Freo where he averages mid 30s over his last 3..
I think these 2 have the best upside out of the top 6 fancys and should be continued to bet on
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
You are an idiot. Chucking a $16 chance into multis when he should be a $3 chance is good betting. If you follow these threads check last year and see how well I did, and see how much I made other people with my box multi methods. I'm not saying he is a lock but chucking him inot a mulit which your anchors can prove very profitable.
Round 2 he was probably BOG in a losing team so I think he will get the 2 or 1. Round 4 I've given Embley 3 Selwood 2 Cox 1. 1 or 2 in round 8 as well. I cant remeber the other round ill update this when i get home.
You are an idiot. Chucking a $16 chance into multis when he should be a $3 chance is good betting. If you follow these threads check last year and see how well I did, and see how much I made other people with my box multi methods. I'm not saying he is a lock but chucking him inot a mulit which your anchors can prove very profitable.
Round 2 he was probably BOG in a losing team so I think he will get the 2 or 1. Round 4 I've given Embley 3 Selwood 2 Cox 1. 1 or 2 in round 8 as well. I cant remeber the other round ill update this when i get home.
Brownlow King
Team Captain
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Ablett and Selwood have to be positives under your same system then as well as they have WC at Geel the week after. I'm going to Carl vs Geel, it's a massive Brownlow game.
Good call with this. I can't see Carlton being competitive this week but they have beaten cats past 2 matches.
Ablett and Selwood have to be positives under your same system then as well as they have WC at Geel the week after. I'm going to Carl vs Geel, it's a massive Brownlow game.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
yeah, i didnt want to mention ablett cause the thought of him polling gives me nightmares lol.. it will totally depend on how thompson uses him. midfield time will probably mean votes, would love Selwood to continue his form.
yeah, i didnt want to mention ablett cause the thought of him polling gives me nightmares lol.. it will totally depend on how thompson uses him. midfield time will probably mean votes, would love Selwood to continue his form.
Ramere
Senior List
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
For purely selfish reasons I'm hoping Pendles can be the man & reckon he's a reasonable chance as he polled pretty well last year. He out polled Swan despite missing a game due to a medial ligament injury & although good when he came back never reached the heights he showed pre-injury. Whilst Didak has been good of late he was only average for the 1st half of the season.
For purely selfish reasons I'm hoping Pendles can be the man & reckon he's a reasonable chance as he polled pretty well last year. He out polled Swan despite missing a game due to a medial ligament injury & although good when he came back never reached the heights he showed pre-injury. Whilst Didak has been good of late he was only average for the 1st half of the season.
carpsi
Senior List
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I feel this is a great count. If possible, can you tell us how you use your system? What procedure do you use to give votes?
I feel this is a great count. If possible, can you tell us how you use your system? What procedure do you use to give votes?
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I actually quite like this strategy. Polling history plays a huge part in brownlow predictions, but its something that balances out over the season. Black, Goodes, Hayes and many other players with really good polling history missed votes in at least one game that they should have polled in last year. The same effect occurs with midfielders getting more votes than key position players, on a whole this definitely happens, but it doesn't happen in every occasion for every match.
There is a definite danger of over compensation if you take polling history into account for every match, by just dishing the votes out as you see it then working history into the equation at the end of the season it might be possible to land closer too the mark.
I actually quite like this strategy. Polling history plays a huge part in brownlow predictions, but its something that balances out over the season. Black, Goodes, Hayes and many other players with really good polling history missed votes in at least one game that they should have polled in last year. The same effect occurs with midfielders getting more votes than key position players, on a whole this definitely happens, but it doesn't happen in every occasion for every match.
There is a definite danger of over compensation if you take polling history into account for every match, by just dishing the votes out as you see it then working history into the equation at the end of the season it might be possible to land closer too the mark.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
As for prior voting history, I do take it into account and it helps when you have 50/50s. It seems Mike 262 doesn't at all whereas BK heavily favours voting history.
Just a bit like everyone else here. I try to watch as many games as possible and particularly look at who gets their hands to the ball first at stoppages and who catches the eye early on and in the last quarter. Statswise, clearances and contested possessions are important and I've only really noticed recently that big tackle numbers also improve your chances of getting votes (Judd, Hayes, Selwood, Sewell, Kirk etc are all big tacklers and always attract votes). I favour midfielders over others. I do try to smooth out the votes throughout the year (ie its unlikely someone will get 3-4 three vote games in a row even if it looks like they deserve it). If the leaders at any point through the year end up at a vote per game its usually on the right track, ending up with a leader at about 22 votes (obviously more for sensational years).
As for prior voting history, I do take it into account and it helps when you have 50/50s. It seems Mike 262 doesn't at all whereas BK heavily favours voting history.
- Sep 22, 2009
- 1,585
- 68
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
There apears to be a lot of value with Boak and Cassisi at Port. Who do you guys have as the leader?
There apears to be a lot of value with Boak and Cassisi at Port. Who do you guys have as the leader?
- Banned
- #1,639
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Swan could wrack up a massive amount of votes (conservetive 15) from rounds 12-18 IMO and could be good for 2 or 3 in round 7 let alone chances in other games. If he has a strong game or 2 over the next couple of weeks= very hard to beat
Swan could wrack up a massive amount of votes (conservetive 15) from rounds 12-18 IMO and could be good for 2 or 3 in round 7 let alone chances in other games. If he has a strong game or 2 over the next couple of weeks= very hard to beat
jimbob7085
Cancelled
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I have Cassisi on 11, Rodan on 7 and Boak on 6. They're both great value IMO and if Cassisi can have one more polling game he will be included in my semi-anchors at very good odds.
here's the top 3 at each club from my count...
Adelaide - Thompson on 9, Goodwin and Douglas 6 (Douglas a real danger IMO, not sure on his odds to win team votes).
Brisbane - Brown 10, Brennan, Black and Rischatelli on 7 each.
Carlton - Judd 27, Simpson 10 and Murphy 7.
Collingwood - Swan 19, Pendlebury 17, Didak 9.
Essendon - Watson 16, Jetta 4, Monfries 4.
Fremantle - Barlow 18, Pavlich 11, Sandilands 10.
Geelong - Ablett 20, Selwood 18, Bartel 16.
Hawthorn - Hodge 22, Mitchell 9, Rioli 7.
Melbourne - Sylvia 12, Green 11, Davey 6.
North - Harvey 17, Swallow 11, Wells 10.
Port - Cassisi 11, Rodan 7, Boak 6.
Richmond - Deledio 9, Tuck 6, Riewoldt and Newman 5.
St Kilda - Hayes 20, Goddard 15, Montagna and Riewoldt 9.
Sydney - Goodes 16, Hannebery and Jack 9.
West Coast - Priddis 8, LeCras 6, Kennedy and NicNat 3.
Western Bulldogs - Cooney 15, Giansiricusa 12, Hall and Boyd 10.
I reckon Judd has pretty much got the medal sewn up. He may not be the best player in the league but he only has to be the best within his team to get the 3 in a win, which he almost always is. Based on these votes my anchors, semi-anchors, value and untouchables are...
Anchors - Goodes, Watson and Judd.
Semi anchors - Cassisi, Hayes, Brown, Barlow and Harvey.
Value - Giansiricusa, Selwood and Bartel, Pendlebury and LeCras.
Untouchables - Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide.
I have Cassisi on 11, Rodan on 7 and Boak on 6. They're both great value IMO and if Cassisi can have one more polling game he will be included in my semi-anchors at very good odds.
here's the top 3 at each club from my count...
Adelaide - Thompson on 9, Goodwin and Douglas 6 (Douglas a real danger IMO, not sure on his odds to win team votes).
Brisbane - Brown 10, Brennan, Black and Rischatelli on 7 each.
Carlton - Judd 27, Simpson 10 and Murphy 7.
Collingwood - Swan 19, Pendlebury 17, Didak 9.
Essendon - Watson 16, Jetta 4, Monfries 4.
Fremantle - Barlow 18, Pavlich 11, Sandilands 10.
Geelong - Ablett 20, Selwood 18, Bartel 16.
Hawthorn - Hodge 22, Mitchell 9, Rioli 7.
Melbourne - Sylvia 12, Green 11, Davey 6.
North - Harvey 17, Swallow 11, Wells 10.
Port - Cassisi 11, Rodan 7, Boak 6.
Richmond - Deledio 9, Tuck 6, Riewoldt and Newman 5.
St Kilda - Hayes 20, Goddard 15, Montagna and Riewoldt 9.
Sydney - Goodes 16, Hannebery and Jack 9.
West Coast - Priddis 8, LeCras 6, Kennedy and NicNat 3.
Western Bulldogs - Cooney 15, Giansiricusa 12, Hall and Boyd 10.
I reckon Judd has pretty much got the medal sewn up. He may not be the best player in the league but he only has to be the best within his team to get the 3 in a win, which he almost always is. Based on these votes my anchors, semi-anchors, value and untouchables are...
Anchors - Goodes, Watson and Judd.
Semi anchors - Cassisi, Hayes, Brown, Barlow and Harvey.
Value - Giansiricusa, Selwood and Bartel, Pendlebury and LeCras.
Untouchables - Richmond, Melbourne and Adelaide.
jimbob7085
Cancelled
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Here's my vote breakdown for Judd.
3 votes in rounds 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 19 and 20.
2 votes in rounds 6 and 17.
1 votes in rounds 10 and 11.
I have him polling in 9 winning games and 1 losing game (2 votes against Collingwood in round 6). He could also easily poll up to 3 votes against the Dees in round 11 for his great influence in the last quarter, sealing the win for the Blues.
Here's my vote breakdown for Judd.
3 votes in rounds 4, 5, 7, 8, 14, 19 and 20.
2 votes in rounds 6 and 17.
1 votes in rounds 10 and 11.
I have him polling in 9 winning games and 1 losing game (2 votes against Collingwood in round 6). He could also easily poll up to 3 votes against the Dees in round 11 for his great influence in the last quarter, sealing the win for the Blues.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
i take into account polling history in the betting just not the count. Ie. I have harvey easily leading north and i know he has good polling history so his a moral to me. Also with judd and pendlebury being so close behind swan they would be my value (like most of you) because they also have excellent polling history, so their bound to pick up votes in games where i didnt necessarily have them polling.
i take into account polling history in the betting just not the count. Ie. I have harvey easily leading north and i know he has good polling history so his a moral to me. Also with judd and pendlebury being so close behind swan they would be my value (like most of you) because they also have excellent polling history, so their bound to pick up votes in games where i didnt necessarily have them polling.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Sounded a bit harsh their mate, I wasn't meaning to take a shot at you. This thread is great because all the different methods and theories come together with experience over the last couple of years to get a consensus that the bookies don't have. I rate all the contributors in this thread and lets hope we take them to the cleaners on the big night.
Sounded a bit harsh their mate, I wasn't meaning to take a shot at you. This thread is great because all the different methods and theories come together with experience over the last couple of years to get a consensus that the bookies don't have. I rate all the contributors in this thread and lets hope we take them to the cleaners on the big night.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
is chapman now ineligible after yesterday?
is chapman now ineligible after yesterday?
ackers29
Debutant
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Cannot see Watson polling that well, Stanton will nearly beat him as he kicks more and has played better in their wins? K.Cornes will go close for Port. Sandilands will almost get Barlow as the umpires wouldnt have known who he was?
- Feb 28, 2005
- 518
- 204
- AFL Club
- Essendon
- Other Teams
- New York Giants, Manchester City
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I have quite a similar count to you mate, except i have Boyd with a few more votes, judd with a few less votes and Watson not leading by as much for Essendon.
ackers29, Stanton will not have a chance to win Essendons. He has had a comparatively terrible season and i can only see him polling in rounds 1, 10 and maybe 18.
I have quite a similar count to you mate, except i have Boyd with a few more votes, judd with a few less votes and Watson not leading by as much for Essendon.
ackers29, Stanton will not have a chance to win Essendons. He has had a comparatively terrible season and i can only see him polling in rounds 1, 10 and maybe 18.
- Jul 12, 2003
- 6,984
- 12,719
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
And to think Mr Lloyd said on Saturday he wasn't as prolific this year.
I think Gibbs and Murphy will poll very poorly; they have had very poor seasons compared to last (for various reasons)
And to think Mr Lloyd said on Saturday he wasn't as prolific this year.
I think Gibbs and Murphy will poll very poorly; they have had very poor seasons compared to last (for various reasons)
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I'm thinking along the same lines to be honest. I just don't see anyone stealing too many votes off him. Gibbs and Murphy both had 10+ votes last year and Judd finished 2nd. Judd has had probably had a better year this year than last with a lot less competition within his own team.
Once again the "fairness", issue with Judd is a little worrying though and sticking in the back of my head. The eye-gauging and the Pavlich elbow may have him in the bad books with the umps.
I'm thinking along the same lines to be honest. I just don't see anyone stealing too many votes off him. Gibbs and Murphy both had 10+ votes last year and Judd finished 2nd. Judd has had probably had a better year this year than last with a lot less competition within his own team.
Once again the "fairness", issue with Judd is a little worrying though and sticking in the back of my head. The eye-gauging and the Pavlich elbow may have him in the bad books with the umps.
Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
I do agree that Judd is a huge chance this year, however comparing players current seasons stats too 2004 stats is always going to be misleading. The game is faster now, teams put more of an emphasis on keeping possession of the ball which means there are a lot more disposals every game.
If you look purely at statistics of former winners in their brownlow years then you'd have cooney right up there. He's averaged more kicks, handballs, marks and tackles this year than he did in 2008 when he won it and that was only 2 years ago! I dont think that cooney is going to go close, just pointing out that if you are going to factor this stuff in then you are going to find a lot of reasons as to why a lot of people will win!
I do agree that Judd is a huge chance this year, however comparing players current seasons stats too 2004 stats is always going to be misleading. The game is faster now, teams put more of an emphasis on keeping possession of the ball which means there are a lot more disposals every game.
If you look purely at statistics of former winners in their brownlow years then you'd have cooney right up there. He's averaged more kicks, handballs, marks and tackles this year than he did in 2008 when he won it and that was only 2 years ago! I dont think that cooney is going to go close, just pointing out that if you are going to factor this stuff in then you are going to find a lot of reasons as to why a lot of people will win!
- Status
Similar threads
