Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[twarby]

I knew I'd make a mistake. I have him on 19. The 3rd image will be the right one. I did the club leaderboard today and just copied the figures, so there might be another error somewhere. I'll double check them.

yeah thought it would be 19.
who you have winning worries me though however

 

[Frozenwaste]

I knew I'd make a mistake. I have him on 19. The 3rd image will be the right one. I did the club leaderboard today and just copied the figures, so there might be another error somewhere. I'll double check them.

Thanks man, that count seems awesome

Just wondering, how accurate were you last year?

 

[Athomas]

Great work AG, always love the presentation of your leaderboards.

My finished leaderboard:

23 - Chris Judd, Gary Ablett
21 - Dane Swan
20 - Joel Selwood, Brent Harvey
17 - Scott Pendlebury, Luke Hodge, Mathew Pavlich, Leigh Montagna
16 - Scott Thompson, Aaron Sandilands, Nick Dal Santo, Lenny Hayes, Andrew Swallow


Few players a bit higher then I expected but really only 3 threats in Judd/Ablett/Swan. Club Leaderboards coming.

 

[AjsGuns]

yeah thought it would be 19.
who you have winning worries me though however

What dont you like about his count? would have thought those results would be very, very good besides Brisbane/Richmond?

 

[Notorious_29]

N29's Final Count

26. D.Swan
23. C.Judd
23. G.Ablett
22. L.Hodge
22. S.Pendlebury
20. B.Harvey
20. J.Selwood
18. A.Goodes
17. L.Hayes

I honestly think anyone of these guys could win, I have been very harsh on Swan in correlation to 2009 voting but still ended with him on 26. I'd be pretty surprised to not see Swan win TBH.

 

[jimbob7085]

Wow lots of quick replies, thanks guys!

@ Vod Ka Nockers - I don't rate Rodan a chance to beat Boak or Cassisi so I decided to use them, at great odds instead of a more obvious Swallow/Harvey or Ablett/Selwood.

@ s1bbald - Sounds like a good idea, although I'm 99.9% certain at least 1 will get up, very likely 2 of them and still a good chance for all 3 it's worth covering just in case.

Here's my top 10 at the conclusion of round 22...

Judd - 28
Ablett - 25
Hodge - 22
Selwood - 21
Hayes - 21
Pendlebury - 20
Swan - 20
Harvey - 18
Barlow - 18
Goodes - 17

and top 3 votegetters for each club...
Adelaide - Thompson 14, Douglas 8, Goodwin 6.
Brisbane - Brown 12, Rischatelli 9, Black and Brennan 8.
Carlton - Judd 28, Simpson 10, Murphy 7.
Collingwood - Pendlebury and Swan 20, Didak 9.
Essendon - Watson 16, Jetta and Monfries 4.
Fremantle - Barlow 18, Sandilands 13, Pavlich 10.
Geelong - Ablett 25, Selwood 21, Bartel 16.
Hawthorn - Hodge 22, Mitchell 13, Buddy 9.
Melbourne - Green 13, Sylvia 12, Davey 7.
North Melbourne - Harvey 18, Swallow 14, Wells 12.
Port Adelaide - Cassisi and Boak 12, Rodan and Cornes 7.
Richmond - Deledio 9, Riewoldt 7, Tuck 6.
St Kilda - Hayes 21, Goddard 14, Montagna 12.
Sydney - Goodes 17, Jack 15, Hannebery and Bolton 9.
West Coast - Priddis 8, LeCras 6, Kennedy and Naitanui 3.
Western Bulldogs - Cooney 15, Giansiricusa 12, Boyd and Cross 11.

 

[twarby]

What dont you like about his count? would have thought those results would be very, very good besides Brisbane/Richmond?

"who you having winning worries me"

Gary Ablett
i have no money on him

 

[AG]

Thanks man, that count seems awesome

Just wondering, how accurate were you last year?

I had Ablett finish on 30 votes so I got that right. After that I had too many votes for all the big guns, so this year I've tried to spread them out a bit and I have 192 players receive votes compared to about 160 last year.

In regards to team totals I got the top 2 players right for about 11 teams but some of the votes were a bit off. As in I had Watson winning by a mile ahead of Winderlich last year but they ended up tying on the night. I think most people normally go fairly close, it only takes a couple of games to stuff up some predictions.

I don't really study the Brownlow like BK and a few of the other guys so they sound like they know more about how to give votes. Same with betting, I'll just throw about $400 on team multi's. I'm not too fussed.

 

[AjsGuns]

AG you have Boak polling 2 and 1 in the first 2 rounds? i have him polling 0 and 0. Can we get some breakdowns for Boak/Cassisi guys?

 

[The GOAT]

What dont you like about his count? would have thought those results would be very, very good besides Brisbane/Richmond?

He is worried about Ablett winning

 

[twarby]

Thanks man, that count seems awesome

Just wondering, how accurate were you last year?

hope AUSSIE GUN doesnt mind me bringing up his count from last year

 

[AjsGuns]

"who you having winning worries me"

Gary Ablett
i have no money on him

Oh glanced at it wrong, you had me worried for a minute regarding team votes as mine is close to AG bar a few (3-4) teams.

 

[Athomas]

Sorry it's not as pretty.

 

[twarby]

AG you have Boak polling 2 and 1 in the first 2 rounds? i have him polling 0 and 0. Can we get some breakdowns for Boak/Cassisi guys?

Boak
r2 = 3
r11 = 1
r20 = 1
r21 = 3
r22 = 3
total 11

Cassisi
r5 = 1
r6 = 2
r17 = 3
r18 = 3
r21 = 2
total 11

 

[Effes]

Swan 28
Hodge 26
Ablett 24
Judd 23
Pendlebury 23
Selwood 21
Goodes 19
Harvey 18
Dal Santo 18
Sandilands 17
Chapman 17
Hayes 17

 

[Effes]

I think I've given the guns too many votes - do it every year.

 

[Effes]

Davenport should get the 3 votes in round two - phenomenal 4 goal last quarter to win the game for Port.

 

[Effes]

Can we have some more posts on the round 18 game Hawthorn Vs Port Adelaide - didn't see much of the replay but looking at the stats it was very even.

 

[AjsGuns]

Can we have some more posts on the round 18 game Hawthorn Vs Port Adelaide - didn't see much of the replay but looking at the stats it was very even.

3. Peace
2. Cassisi
1. Schultz

 

[twarby]

Adel: 18 Thompson, 8 Douglas, Vince

Bris: 12 Brown, 10 Riscitelli, 6 Black

Carl: 23 Judd, 9 Murphy, 6 Simpson

Coll: 21 Swan, 20 Pendlebury, 11 Didak

Ess: 13 Watson, 7 Winderlich, 6 Hille, Stanton

Freo: 16 Barlow, 15 Sandilands, 12 Pavlich

Gee: 22 Ablett, 20 Selwood, 17 Bartel

Haw: 23 Hodge, 12 Franklin, 11 Mitchell

Melb: 12 Sylvia, 7 Mcdonald, 6 Green

Nth: 17 Harvey, 14 Swallow, 8 Wells

Port: 11 Cassisi, Boak, 7 Rodan, Kornes

Rich: 10 Deledio, 7 Riewoldt, 6 Tuck

StK: 19 Hayes, 17 Goddard, 14 Dal Santo

Syd: 14 Goodes, 13 Jack, 11 Hannebery

WC: 8 Priddis, 6 Cox, 4 Lecras

WB: 17 Boyd, 12 Cooney, Giansiracua, Cross

 

[AG]

Sorry it's not as pretty.

I like reading other peoples leaderboards because anytime you see something similar it gives you confidence that you might be on the money. Also your leaderboard is proof I shouldn't touch the Bulldogs.

Freo might be a slight worry as well with Pavlich but less possibilities than the Bulldogs.

I have Jack above Goodes in my count but that's probably with the best case scenario for Jack. Goodes has more games to poll in and I have him polling 1's and 2's when a 3 isn't out of the question.

 

[FoleyIsGood]

Round 18
3-Pearce
2-Schultz
1-Sewll

I have Boak leading Port's count pretty easy and haven't given as many to Cassisi as others have. Rundown of Boaks scoring has:
R1-2
R2-3
R7-2
R9-1
R21-3
R22-3
=14

For those wondering about Richmonds I cant spilt Reiwoldt or Deledio, I have got them both polling 9.
Reiwoldt:
R9-2
R10-1
R11-1
R12-3
R21-2
Deledio
R8-1
R12-2
R13-3
R14-1
R18-2

 

[Athomas]

I like reading other peoples leaderboards because anytime you see something similar it gives you confidence that you might be on the money. Also your leaderboard is proof I shouldn't touch the Bulldogs.

Freo might be a slight worry as well with Pavlich but less possibilities than the Bulldogs.

I have Jack above Goodes in my count but that's probably with the best case scenario for Jack. Goodes has more games to poll in and I have him polling 1's and 2's when a 3 isn't out of the question.

After looking at your and twarby's counts I'm feeling quite good about our collective thoughts.

Main differences between mine and others are: 2-3 votes to Rodan, 5-6 votes to Pavlich and Deledio/JVolt. I'm happy to think Rodan/Pav aren't as high as I may have them but I'm a bit worried about Jack Volt. I was pretty confident on him.

Great count AG/Twarby/Jimbob/Notorious.

Someone please post a count with Deledio behind Jack but!

 

[Effes]

Thanks for the round 18 interesting game because Hawthorn lead for 3 quarters.

Dogs
Boyd - 12
Giansiracusa - 12
Griffen - 11
Cooney - 11
Cross - 11

No. Go. Zone.

 

[Effes]

Deledio - 11
Riewoldt - 10

Deledio
10 - 2
12 - 2
13 - 3
15 - 2
18 - 1

Riewoldt
9 - 1
10 - 1
11 - 2
12 - 3
15 - 1
21 - 2