Autopsy Bud Vs Geelong Rd 16, 2018

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It is beyond frustrating to watch the ball stream out of our f50 constantly yet we burn basically every exit from d50.

I’ll pay money to whoever can find out the last time we had more time in forward half than the opposition (a top 8 team).

Bet it’s never
 

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But we only lost by 12 points mate.
If you want to play the hypothetical game then let's take away their ridiculous 50s & Danger's free kick for a goal in that last, yes that vital first goal required in such a close game.
What if Jack didn't get hurt & stayed on without any possessions but at least provided us with the extra rotation that Geelong had?
Same with Hanners & his calf. He's been struggling enough so what if he didn't do his calf & gave us a slightly better output.

You know?

12 points. Not 65 points. We saved our percentage.
Take some good luck with our bad luck mate & hope we get some key players back & whip Norths ar.es.

Again though, we did not control that. We did not force Geelong to kick badly in front of goal so you can't claim that as a victory since we were not responsible for it.

If Geelong had scored 15.16, which isn't a particularly good kicking for goal rate either, then they would have scored 106 points and beaten us by almost 50 points.
 
“16 of the last 17 premiers averaged more than 100 points for" according to Champion Data. We average 85. We cannot score goals. This was evident again last night. Without Buddy we have barely a functioning forward line, and our strategy seems to be to try and create a dour, low-scoring, ugly game and win by scoring 50 points as opposed to out opponents 35. It's all fun and games to score 100 points against sides like StKilda and Freo, but we need to consistently post high scores if we are going to compete with Richmond in September. For some reason we fluctuate so significantly, 90 points one week and then 60 the next, Buddy must shake his head when he looks at the scoreboard some weeks, and sees we've only kicked 7 goals for the match. 59 points last night....seriously?
I think this forms the basis of why some fans question whether Longmire has underachieved with this list. For the past few years our list has been best suited to quick attacking footy, yet we've gone for the arm wrestle as plan A every year. Shallow media types bang on about "the Swans bigger bodies" being suited to a contested game, which shows they haven't actually watched the Swans play since the mid 2000's.

When it comes to contested footy, we're average at best. When it comes to wet weather footy, we're poor. It's no coincidence that our home record is poor when you consider the Sydney dew factor.

Our defense is good, ridiculously so at times, and this protects us from conceding too heavily when we get beaten through the middle. We rely entirely on JPK to win the ball, or Heeney when available. Imagine if we could win/hold/clear the ball through the middle more regularly and therefore weren't required to defend against a thousand inside 50's every game.

There's no solution here, just a tired rant.
 
So Melbourne are the premiership favourites at the moment?
Just showing that the sides that win it on the big day consistently score big, which is something that we don't. Evidence indicates that sides that can't score highly throughout the year don't hold up the cup, which we've displayed since 2012.
 
I’m sick of seeing this talented team performances

It’s ******* hard watching us atm

Scrap, bomb shit

Our transition is under 10s like I don’t give a ****


spot on worse case we should be an ordinary side relying on buddy and him kicking 100 a year and us still being average because he is our obvious advantage

but we dont give him a chance

50 goals at Sydney is the equivalent to 80-90 at hawthorn for Bud right now IMO
 
God I hope this isn't one of the last tackles Jarrad McVeigh ever makes for the Sydney Swans. What a nasty collar bone injury. Hard to see him get back this year. Awful day for Sydney football re: Kieran & Hannas, Allir copped a nasty knock, as did Cal Sinc The deep winter sector is starting to edit sides via injuries. Shrugs, better to have a mini slump than later in the season. Still think Sydney will bounce back.

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Again though, we did not control that. We did not force Geelong to kick badly in front of goal so you can't claim that as a victory since we were not responsible for it.

If Geelong had scored 15.16, which isn't a particularly good kicking for goal rate either, then they would have scored 106 points and beaten us by almost 50 points.

You kick a goal & the ball goes back to the middle. It doesn't get continuously locked in from a kick out because you are unable to regroup or are fatigued.
50/50 ball in the centre & usually that is our strength.
 
Another game where the opposition is just able to completely stunt our scoring. It's been happening for years now. Look at the scores in our recent finals losses - 39, 55, 67, 60, 51, 74, 51, 74. That's going back to the 2013 finals. I know, duh, when we lose it's because we don't score many points, but we are way too easy to lock up in pressure games.

At some point I hope the coaches realise that part of it is due to our amazing defence. I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but when you play a style which is designed to defend deep, and deal with repeat inside 50s, when you're playing against a side with a good defence it makes it incredibly difficult for us to score. Repeat entries mean the opposition defence has so much time to set up their zone and forward press, which makes it incredibly difficult to actually get forward once we've got the ball. It looks great when we play sides that don't have great defences but when we come up against sides that defend we we really, really struggle. Using the Squiggle as the indicator of the sides with the best defence, we're 1-3 against the top 3 sides this year (Richmond, Port and Geelong).

It seems to be typified by Lloyd of all people. I know he's generally favoured the back half of the ground but it's getting crazy now. Out of his 33 touches last night, one of them came in the forward half. He's become the king of cheap defence possessions. The stupid AFL app doesn't give the possession map for previous seasons, but his inside 50s numbers have dropped each season from 2016 to now, so I'm assuming the same trend applies that his possessions are getting deeper and deeper in defence. He's not a good or creative enough kicker of the ball to launch attacks from so far in defence, so the majority of his kicks are dinky passes to someone in the pocket or on our 50m line.

Then when you add on to that the fact that our midfield is incredibly thin right now. Take Heeney out, and with Hannebery and Jack being complete non-entities, we're basically left with Kennedy and Parker being our only quality midfielders. I would have hoped Longmire would have recognised that and released Hewett from his tagging duties as we were crying out for another ball winner, but nope.

In terms of positives, Aliir and McCartin both looked good. Horse finally having an excuse to drop Hannebery & Jack is a positive even if it sucks they got injuries. Fox played well. Florent was generally quiet which I'm not super worried about for a second gamer, but he kicked a difficult clutch goal which was great. Buddy's still managing to kick 4 goals every week despite looking really unfit.

As for changes next week, Jack, Hannebery and McVeigh out, maybe for the rest of the year is a huge changing of the guard but it's a chance to really refresh that midfield. Heeney, Papley and Reid are due back but at some stage I'd like to bring O'Riordan in to the backline and put Lloyd back further up the ground where his running can actually do some damage. Either drop Robinson for Dawson or release Hewett and give tagging duties to Robinson.

No Rohan please.
 
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Scoring shots the last three weeks. Eight shots from the entire left hand side of the forward 50, and tonight one of those was Robbo off a pack and one was Parker right at the end.

We've fallen into the habit of almost exclusively attacking from the right hand side, often after a really dull switch after exiting defence up the left hadn boundary. So it's both predictable and slow, and much easier to defend than a more varied attack. They seem to get tunnel vision when things aren't going well - the number of occasions they didn't look for the centering options at half forward was emblematic of this.
 
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Well the other possible conclusion is that the forward entries from the left hand side have been so bad they don't even generate a shot at goal. Hard to tell without the full data.
 
The AFL app heat maps also tend to suggest a rightward bias. For eg this was last night:

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A lot of those possessions on the left hand side of the forward 50 are probably around stoppages, that's where those tended to happen after failed entries from the right. There's certainly not much ball on the left side between the arcs.
 
Well done you took out Rohan for a 14 posession Robinson, where did it get ya.

We are papley and Rohan away from being half competitive, otherwise we are one dimensional which is a massive worry. Showed nothing when the game was in the balance.
 
Well done you took out Rohan for a 14 posession Robinson, where did it get ya.

We are papley and Rohan away from being half competitive, otherwise we are one dimensional which is a massive worry. Showed nothing when the game was in the balance.

Maybe he actually did have hamstring tightness and wasn't playing for that reason. Hope to see him return next game against North - Rohan that is
 

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Autopsy Bud Vs Geelong Rd 16, 2018

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