News Burning questions for 2012: Collingwood

[Ed D]

Agree with most of your post. WE have several players with question marks going into the season and very little obvious depth to replace them . In addition to your list , I would also add Dawes and Macaffer. Are they any better than the ordinary footballers they looked like last year? Dawes in particular needs to lift his paltry goal average.

Dawes with Cloke were being named the twin towers at the start of last season and the best 2 key forward combo in the game. Dawes dipped a little then got injured. Macaffer battled injuries the entire year as well. So yes, they're better than what they produced in 2011.

Tarrant also has the flexibility of playing small so it's not too much of an issue with Brown & Reid also in the side. Last year there were games where it looked like we might have been stretched as well. Hopefully that's not an issue in 2012.

 

[THATSGOLD]

In all honesty unless he improves a bunch he isn't ready for a senior gig. The hypes nice but thats all it is. His ruck work has a looooong way to go. McNamara and Ceglar are both ahead of him in this aspect of the game. He is too immobile for a permanent spot up forward. I think we will see Witts spend another season in the twos and he'd be doing really well to crack one senior game in the AFL. We may see him McNamara style in the NAB though which would be interesting.

If Jolly and Wood both got injured at any point during the year are we stuffed?

 

[Ed D]

If Jolly and Wood both got injured at any point during the year are we stuffed?

We're stuffed if they're both injured going into the finals.

 

[Knightmare]

Agree with most of your post. WE have several players with question marks going into the season and very little obvious depth to replace them . In addition to your list , I would also add Dawes and Macaffer. Are they any better than the ordinary footballers they looked like last year? Dawes in particular needs to lift his paltry goal average.

Another thing we will miss more than many posters seem to think is Leigh Brown's aggression and physicality. We have no player on the list that can provide that touch of mongrel. His hit on Lewis in the Prelim was a real turning point in that game.

Another player that many posters seem to want on the outer is Ben Johnson. I tend to think that, despite the dependence on the left foot, he adds a strong body , pace and experience that should make him regular in 22.

Will we play Brown, Tarrant and Reid all in the one backline? Well Brown has a long journey back, so it may be a irrelevant. If they are necessay match ups eg against WCE using Kennedy, Darling and Lynch,then fine. We should also be flexible enough to be able to also use one of them up forward. AS all 3 are capable of playing key forward.

Dawes I'm at the stage with where I don't really have doubts about his play and is clearly best 22 and the right fit as our 2nd key forward. I know who he is and what he does and have confidence that he can produce strong football - to a similar standard to what he produced early 2011. (This might sound pretty optimistic but I rate his professionalism and assuming healthy I don't see why he can't get back to that form or at least reasonably close to).

Macaffer while I was very disappointed in his season last year (wouldn't have rated him inside our top 35 based on what he produced last season frankly), but hearing about his preseason I'm optimistic that he can be best 22 again this year and produce similar results to his strong 2010 season. With all the talk of Sidebottom being released to the midfield *I don't see him as a perminant midfielder but certainly a 50-60% gametime midfielder* I see Macaffer fitting into that forward structure best and assuming he can run, tackle and mark better than he did in 2011 - which I expect, I see him in our best 22 again.

With that forward setup I see:
F: Andrew Krakouer Chris Dawes Brent Macaffer
HF: Dayne Beams Travis Cloke Alex Fasolo
*With midfield rotation going through there including: Sidebottom, Didak and Swan among others.

Leigh Brown isn't really someone you replace with a like for like swap and is a fairly unique player and not someone that necessarily needs to be replaced - another actual ruckmen could play as a no.2 ruckman but bring a different something to the team (perhaps this could be more hitouts in that limited time in the ruck or perhaps more of a marking or goalscoring threat).
I'd be tempted to bring Ceglar in for regular games as that ruckman who can also play some forward minutes - unless Keeffe has been training as a ruck/forward in which case he would be an equally good option.

Ben Johnson I have in my best 22 right now, have been tempted to move him out in the past, but the guy keeps producing and keeps adapting so for now I see no reason why he shouldn't be inside our best side if he can continue to produce. My concern for him is Marty Clarke. Maybe they can both play together but I also see the potential for it to be one or the other inside our best 22 - one scenario where this could happen is if the proposed N.Brown into the side idea happens, perhaps with this extra backman it means we have to get rid of the next option which could well be one of Johnson or Clarke.
The other scenario where it might come down to one of Clarke or Johnson is if we elect to play as a less backline loaded team and not elect to use that extra man back and instead elect to use another rotational midfielder instead.

I don't really have any issues with playing the 3 key defenders. Clubs use resting ruckmen as key forwards and looking at Geelong's successful backline from the past 5 years they have typically had very tall backlines and we saw first hand in the grandfinal how hard that can be to penetrate when a midfield gets pressured as ours did and get forced into kicking high, long kicks inside 50 which the tall defenders mark 9 times out of 10.
But it comes down to best team. If N.Brown can do more to help us win than the next key defender and the backline can make the structure work, then that's the way to go. But first let's see what N.Brown can produce - because I suspect it will take some time for him to get his footy touch back.

I recently read (forgotten which article) about how Nathan Brown might not play in the NAB Cup as he's still getting himself right, so for all we know he might miss the start of the season too.

This sounds about right.

Having just come back from some very major injuries personally I'd like for N.Brown to not be rushed for the start of the season and just work his way back into form through the VFL first before he is even considered for selection.

When he starts to string together strong form he should receive an opportunity to put his case forward for a position alongside Reid and Tarrant.

 

[Kirby]

Geoff Walsh has said that Brown won't be playing in the NAB Cup.

I don't think he's injured or had any setbacks, it's just not on his program. I suspect that they want to avoid playing him on the hard grounds in the pre-season and then just ease him back through the VFL in the early rounds.

It sounds like a good idea to me.

 

[Darkdayz]

Its a long season and hes had so much time off, probably just making sure he wont be worn out by the end of the season. I would ideally like to see him play max 3 out of 4 games a month just to keep some reserve for september.

I think Macaffer will be a very important part of the team. We really did miss him as a hit up target. He's one of those awkward type players that a team has to actually put thought into. I think he and fasolo will be fighting for the same spot.

 

[the mighty T]

A couple of key burning issues for me

Tyson Goldsack - has only been a fringe player in his time at the club but i think his inclusion couldve made all the difference in the world against Geelong in that grand final. For me, he is best 22 and we could find a role for him to play each week, and he showed against west coast that hes capable of playing a tagging shut down role as well. But im not sure who exactly makes way for him.

FB: Maxwell, Brown, Taz
HB: Harry O, Reid, Shaw

Clarke, Goldsack are the two that im trying to fit in. If indeed bucks opts to keep with the loose man down back that MM preferred then i certainly think Goldy selects himself. Thoughts ?

The Jolly/Wood ruck combo poses an interesting dilemma with the retirement of Leigh Brown. I think playing both of these blokes is a must, at least early in the season to see how it works. I would think that Jolly playing deep forward with Wood taking the majority of ruck contests. I feel that Wood showed a lot when he played last season and he should be given an opportunity to be the first ruck and to be in the team ahead of Ceglar and Witts.

 

[Thommo 42]

On the subject of Witts, Sandilands wasn't really established as an AFL player until he was 22-23, so even if he does nothing next year - its no big deal.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

It would be nice to see him this year, but honestly, you just can't put him ahead of Wood.

I actually thought Cam was better than Jolls on the odd occasion he got a chance to prove himself, but of course Mick being Mick played the 'names' and his favourites.

Who knows what could have been had we played Wood and the Sack instead of Jolly and Reid.

This year is surely going to be Woods last year if he can't cement a spot. I'm guessing that Jolly may just retire at the end of this year with Wood and Wiits to take over from 2013?

Unless of course Jolly is totally over his injuries.

 

[Magnus the Magpie]

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Personally, I can't wait to see how Bucks decides to go with a number of players, whcih includes Harry.

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Who knows, but you'd think there'll be one or two shocks with regards to Bucks' thinking with game plan, positional changes and personnel choices.

Yes, can't wait to see how things unfold.

Also, don't forget Eade's input. Renowned for his strategic work and, from an article in today's rag, it sounds like he and Bucks are getting along very nicely indeed. Might be a candidate for recruit of the year.

 

[Ed D]

It would be nice to see him this year, but honestly, you just can't put him ahead of Wood.

I actually thought Cam was better than Jolls on the odd occasion he got a chance to prove himself, but of course Mick being Mick played the 'names' and his favourites.

Who knows what could have been had we played Wood and the Sack instead of Jolly and Reid.

This year is surely going to be Woods last year if he can't cement a spot. I'm guessing that Jolly may just retire at the end of this year with Wood and Wiits to take over from 2013?

Unless of course Jolly is totally over his injuries.

We would have even been better with Goldsack as a sub, but would it have made a difference? I don't know. There were too many things that were wrong leading up to the game and I thought the players tried hard, it just wasn't their year with Geelong peaking at the right time.

Anyway I think it's way too early to make judgement on Jolly. Last year was the first season he's had in his career where he's battled serious injury. In saying that if he backs up 2012 with a repeat performance of 2011 (I'd say it's unlikely) then by all means the club should seriously consider looking for a replacement.

 

[Knightmare]

Wood will have to drastically improve to ever be worthy of a position inside our best 22 and I don't see it with no development over the course of his career to suggest anything will change.

Weak through the legs and can't hold position at boundary throwins.
Loses most ruck contests - even against average opposition.
Hitout to advantage poor.
Contributes little around the ground.
Wins very little of his own ball and just isn't a physical enough presence in the contest.
Not a marking target up forward.
Not a significant goal scoring threat.

He just hasn't offered anything of signficant value to the team to this point and is below average in just about every category other than disposal efficiency which is surprisingly good - though would need to improve by an average of 3+ disposals per game for this to be any kind of factor in his game.

I'd love to be wrong about the guy because it means we won't need to invest in another ruckman for the next 5 years with Witts, Ceglar and Gault developing. But unless Wood was seriously injured last year and has trained the house down this preseason and improved in all these above areas I don't see it.

 

[Ed D]

Wood will have to drastically improve to ever be worthy of a position inside our best 22 and I don't see it with no development over the course of his career to suggest anything will change.

Weak through the legs and can't hold position at boundary throwins.
Loses most ruck contests - even against average opposition.
Hitout to advantage poor.
Contributes little around the ground.
Wins very little of his own ball and just isn't a physical enough presence in the contest.
Not a marking target up forward.
Not a significant goal scoring threat.

He just hasn't offered anything of signficant value to the team to this point and is below average in just about every category other than disposal efficiency which is surprisingly good - though would need to improve by an average of 3+ disposals per game for this to be any kind of factor in his game.

I'd love to be wrong about the guy because it means we won't need to invest in another ruckman for the next 5 years with Witts, Ceglar and Gault developing. But unless Wood was seriously injured last year and has trained the house down this preseason and improved in all these above areas I don't see it.

Hmmm, I'm not sure on that. I would have agreed with you this time last year but in 2011 in most games he equalled his opponents output in the ruck and I can't remember him having his colours lowered (Minson of all rucks was the closest to doing that when it was 56 HO to 29 although most of Minson's were not to advantage). His hit out numbers were average, hit outs to advantage were good, around the ground he was average, and he started to throw himself into the contests and make tackles which was probably the biggest area he improved on last year.

I'm not sure he's ever going to be a top 5 ruckman (in fact I'd be pleasantly surprised if he ever was) but I can see him continuing his improvement to be a solid contributer and being more than able to compete and hold his own.

 

[kevind]

Wood will have to drastically improve to ever be worthy of a position inside our best 22 and I don't see it with no development over the course of his career to suggest anything will change.

Weak through the legs and can't hold position at boundary throwins.
Loses most ruck contests - even against average opposition.
Hitout to advantage poor.
Contributes little around the ground.
Wins very little of his own ball and just isn't a physical enough presence in the contest.
Not a marking target up forward.
Not a significant goal scoring threat.

He just hasn't offered anything of signficant value to the team to this point and is below average in just about every category other than disposal efficiency which is surprisingly good - though would need to improve by an average of 3+ disposals per game for this to be any kind of factor in his game.

I'd love to be wrong about the guy because it means we won't need to invest in another ruckman for the next 5 years with Witts, Ceglar and Gault developing. But unless Wood was seriously injured last year and has trained the house down this preseason and improved in all these above areas I don't see it.

Agree 100%. The bolded section is the most damning part IMO. It is just so important for ruckmen to enjoy throwing their weight around, particularly in finals.

Ruck stocks are really a worry for me. Ceglar looks like another of these tall, thin ruckmen who lack in physical presence that we seem to consistently corner the market in. Witts has to be years away from being an AFL ruckman going by his age and background.

If Jolly goes down, I doubt we have a ruckman that can take us to a premiership

 

[Knightmare]

Hmmm, I'm not sure on that. I would have agreed with you this time last year but in 2011 in most games he equalled his opponents output in the ruck and I can't remember him having his colours lowered (Minson of all rucks was the closest to doing that when it was 56 HO to 29 although most of Minson's were not to advantage). His hit out numbers were average, hit outs to advantage were good, around the ground he was average, and he started to throw himself into the contests and make tackles which was probably the biggest area he improved on last year.

I'm not sure he's ever going to be a top 5 ruckman (in fact I'd be pleasantly surprised if he ever was) but I can see him continuing his improvement to be a solid contributer and being more than able to compete and hold his own.

My belief with ruckmen is that at 24 you know who the guy is. Turning 25 this year and with no real signs of development at any stage it is difficult to see him as anything more than a depth quality ruckman.

If the AFL prospectus is right: "Wood recorded below-average numbers for ruck contests won, while his hitout-to-advantage rate was also below average and the fifth-worst of any ruckman who played at least 12 games. He rarely got on top of fellow ruckmen, winning at least 40% of ruck contests in only three games, which was considered the pass mark for a ruckman."

Also taking a look at his numbers relative to minutes played in many categories since 2009 (his least bad season) relative to 2011 Wood has decrease taking 1.1 less marks per game less and averaging 0.7 disposals per game less with an inconsiquential increase in hitouts while averaging 18 minutes more gametime in 2011 against his 2009 season.

So while his supercoach or dreamteam numbers might look ok, there is allot of data suggesting that Wood is a hardly serviceable ruckman.

I don't see Wood developing into a top 25 league ruckman.

Right now if Jolly goes down with injury Wood is probably the only and correct replacement. But he has not shown any level of continued improvement or consistant contribution and as a contendor it is troubling that he is the next in line.

Agree 100%. The bolded section is the most damning part IMO. It is just so important for ruckmen to enjoy throwing their weight around, particularly in finals.

Ruck stocks are really a worry for me. Ceglar looks like another of these tall, thin ruckmen who lack in physical presence that we seem to consistently corner the market in. Witts has to be years away from being an AFL ruckman going by his age and background.

If Jolly goes down, I doubt we have a ruckman that can take us to a premiership

Typically I like the more powerful type ruckmen rather than the more mobile types also but without those more powerful types and mostly mobile options unless we want to insert Witts into our best side now (which I don't recommend) we will have another mobile ruckman in our side.

I've had similar concerns about our ruck stocks for some time. Particularly over the short term while our premiership window is open our stocks lack quality and depth.

The way I see it if Jolly gets injured we are in trouble. Right now he is our only AFL quality ruckman. Last year he had an average season by his standards though still better than that of Wood (in those games he played, played fewer minutes yet still averaged more hitouts with a significantly higher proportion going to the advantage).

Ceglar certainly isn't a powerful ruckman and I don't see him as a no.1 type ruckman but more of a no.2 ruckman who can rotate into the forwardline. He has shown at VFL level some signs up forward that he can be a strong marking target and while he will always be more of a mobile type he looks like he might be able to add a couple of strings to his bow and some value to the team. Is an acceptable tap ruckman already and could be worth a shot if he has shown improvement over the offseason.

Keeffe is another I'd really like to see given the opportunity to take on those minor ruck minutes. He has the flexibility to add a versatility to the team with his ability to play key defence or up forward if requred and he can very easily fill holes between time in the ruck, forward or down back. While his rucking ability is a big unknown, it will be curious to see if he can develop it. Has the height on his side and hopefully with some more weight (has been working out with Ceglar over the Summer) on him might just be ready to give it a go and surprise some.

 

[Ed D]

The stats don't look good but I don't think you can judge a player soley on paper (or going off what's written in the prospectus). There were games where he got smashed in the hit outs but he didn't let his opponent set up play or get easy tap downs. He certainly isn't 1st rucking material yet but I can see improvement in him and he was holding his own in most games. A big problem for him is that a lot of games where he was smashed his back up was Leigh Brown who did absolutely nothing so the opposition would target him then basically rest when Brown was on as he did nothing.

Anyway, I still think the way he played last year was an improvement, even if on paper it didn't appear to be. 2010 he barely got involved in a contest and avoided contact, 2011 he started going into packs and causing the ball to ground, and he was laying tackles. It's more the way he started to play that was the improvement. Last year he went from a below average ruckman to average. In saying all of that this year will count for a lot and there's no way that his place on the list is safe.

 

[blaze036]

I think Wood in a few years will be in a similair position to fraser... hope he comes good though.

U can tell though with his off field behaviour... his just a bit too pansy to be a good ruckmen

 

[Ed D]

U can tell though with his off field behaviour... his just a bit too pansy to be a good ruckmen

I agree, but it's good to hear this year preseason he's having a real dip (about time). Perhaps he's realising that he could be delisted?

 

[cleomenes]

Forward line : Cloke to maintain last year's form, Dawes to remain fit.
: McCaffer, Didak to be fit.

Midfield : Swan, Pendlebury, Thomas, Ball to maintain
: Wellingham, Beams, Sidebottom to come on.

Ruck : Jolly to be fit
: Wood to come on

Backs :Tarrant, Reid, Shaw, O'Brien, Toovey, Johnson, to maintain
: Clarke to regain

When some of these do not meet expectations, and I say when, not if, then the backups have to show what they have. We have new guys for all positions, so the real questions are the imponderables.
How good are the new players?
How well will the new coaching setup work?
And the big one, what will the injury list look like?

 

[76woodenspooners]

U can tell though with his off field behaviour... his just a bit too pansy to be a good ruckmen

+1

Absolutely spot on.

Brown was shorter and had less mobility but you can see that his grunt easily put him ahead of Wood in value to the team.

Anybody suggesting Keefe might step up - I disagree for similar reasons. Keefe reminds me a bit too much like Marvin the Paranoid Android (apologies Scodog - but I felt that way before he became your Avatar). I reckon he needs to get his confidence up so he can be considered ruck material. He doesn't seem the type who can throw his weight around - not yet anyway.

I think the next in line behind Jolly and Wood would have to be big Shae - but he'd have to be promoted first.

 

[HFF]

From last year's team 2 spots have opened up and are up for grabs. Davis and Leroy are gone.

That means it will most likely come from Goldsack, Macaffer, N. Brown, Wood and Clarke.

Is Wood capable of playing second fiddle to Jols and providing a mobile target around the ground like Leroy? I'm not sure.

Is Goldsack ready to assume a best 22 role now that a defensive spot has opened up with Davis' departure? I think his time has come.

Is Clarke ready to re-assume a role in the side as a half-back-cum-midfielder? I don't see why not.

Is N. Brown able and ready to hold down FB once again giving us more flexibility in defence with Reid and Tarrant? You'd think so, providing his confidence in his body is right.

Is Macaffer able to shrug off body issues and hit back ala 2010? Again, you'd think so.

What changes will the Buckley regime have on the current game plan?

For the rest of the players in the best 22 we will obviously expect to see them weekly and expect natural improvement and progression but how we cover the absence of arguably the best swingman/second ruck in the comp and an AA defender will be very interesting.

These are the burning questions for mine.

 

[Quicky]

When some of these do not meet expectations, and I say when, not if, then the backups have to show what they have. We have new guys for all positions, so the real questions are the imponderables.
How good are the new players?
How well will the new coaching setup work?
And the big one, what will the injury list look like?

I think it is up forward where we really lack depth. It'll be interesting to see how Mooney, Elliot and Paine progress. I'd also like to see how Hartley goes up forward.

+1

Absolutely spot on.

Brown was shorter and had less mobility but you can see that his grunt easily put him ahead of Wood in value to the team.

Anybody suggesting Keefe might step up - I disagree for similar reasons. Keefe reminds me a bit too much like Marvin the Paranoid Android (apologies Scodog - but I felt that way before he became your Avatar). I reckon he needs to get his confidence up so he can be considered ruck material. He doesn't seem the type who can throw his weight around - not yet anyway.

I don't have those misgivings about Keeffe. I've seen him throw his weight around but I don't think he has the build to compete in the ruck. He is tall for a defender but defense fits his playing style much more.

I think the next in line behind Jolly and Wood would have to be big Shae - but he'd have to be promoted first.

A rookie can play six games without promotion. There is also the opportunity to promote a rookie mid season if necessary.