Analysis Bye Time - The Run Home Special

[Footskill]

Playing football is a job. There are days when you are mentally switched on and others you don't give a ****

So if you have two weeks leave, I know when I do, first day back I'm lazy and unfocused as ever. Not excuse but reality of the human psyche. Takes me about a week to get back into routine lol

 

[DocT]

Pre/Post Bye 2023


Pre/Post Bye 2024


OK boys and JLo, are we better in 2024? It's coming down to the wire for JLo...LFG!

 

[#1JohnHuttonFan]

Playing football is a job. There are days when you are mentally switched on and others you don't give a ****

So if you have two weeks leave, I know when I do, first day back I'm lazy and unfocused as ever. Not excuse but reality of the human psyche. Takes me about a week to get back into routine lol

AGREE.. I had a week off last week and when I came back to work I was sluggish and unfocused.

North up by 48 point at half time against Collingwood shows great teams have down days too. I think we have all been melting a little hard about yesterday’s loss. Even though it was disappointing but I have no doubt we will beat Gold Coast next week and get our mojo back.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Footskill]

AGREE.. I had a week off last week and when I came back to work I was sluggish and unfocused.

North up by 48 point at half time against Collingwood shows great teams have down days too. I think we have all been melting a little hard about yesterday’s loss. Even though it was disappointing but I have no doubt we will beat Gold Coast next week and get our mojo back.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think it's partly due to we had the opportunity of top 4 within our grasp.

But also it's like that, we live to melt lol nothing like the highs and lows..if we kept winning some would get bored lol

But yes the human psyche is weird. Sometimes you know what needs to be done, you think you prepared mentally for it, but somehow it lets you down on the day

 

[DocT]

This is one helluva comment from this week's Titus O'Reilly:

LILAC MIST
JUN 17, 2024
Freo take playing badly after the bye seriously. For us it means every game after the bye until the end of the season. Every year.

Feels too right.

 

[Catalpa]

We could do anything from 3/10 to 7/10 for the rest of the season. Strap in, cross your toes, touch wood, stock up the beer fridge, and ask the question: which Freo is turning up this weekend?

 

[FreoGirl]

I can't see us beating the Swans next week..

 

[Spirit Level]

Came up with this giving us losses to Sydney and GWS.



Flip either one of those results and we end up 3rd in a QF against the blues

 

[Joao]

Came up with this giving us losses to Sydney and GWS.

View attachment 2030931

Flip either one of those results and we end up 3rd in a QF against the blues

Geelong aren't playing like a team about to win 6/9.

 

[Spirit Level]

Geelong aren't playing like a team about to win 6/9.

Yeah but their run home is quite soft, I had them beating Essendon cause I don't rate em

 

[Joao]

Yeah but their run home is quite soft, I had them beating Essendon cause I don't rate em

As mediocre as the Bombers seem to be, Geelong are easily worse than that the last 2 months.

And I doubt they are favourites in any of the next 3 (Bombers, Hawks, Pies).

Edit: are favourites against the Hawks at GMHBA.

 

[Madas]

Geelong aren't playing like a team about to win 6/9.

So what’s the least amount of games we need to win to make the 8 ?
Ill start there and anything more will be a bonus

 

[Joao]

So what’s the least amount of games we need to win to make the 8 ?
Ill start there and anything more will be a bonus

I'd say 5 probably gets us in on account of the draw. 6 and we're a lock.

 

[FreoGirl]

have a miracle win this weekend and we are right on track

 

[FreoGirl]

what does the run home look like now?

 

[ubiquitous226]

what does the run home look like now?

So we finished with 3 wins out of the first 4, a very positive result with a nice Dockery twist (lost to Wb, beat Sydney).
7 to go, need 3 to definitely play finals and probably 5 to make top 4.
Let's farking go.

Hawthorn [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (UTAS)
Fremantle [8d] vs Melbourne [8d] (Optus)
Fremantle [6d] vs West Coast [7d] (Optus)
Essendon [8d] vs Fremantle [8d] (MCG)

Fremantle [6d] vs Geelong [7d] (Optus)
GWS [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle [?] vs Port Adelaide [?] (Optus)


Must win: West Coast
Should win: Hawthorn, Melbourne
50/50: Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
Who knows: GWS

 

[sumavich]

That is not an easy run home lbh

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

That is not an easy run home lbh

Crazt how things look different off one or two rounds though. Suddenly, Port, Geelong, Essendon and GWS are 50/50 rather than 70/30.

 

[free at last]

Beating Hawthorn is now a massive game for us! That’ll get us on a big roll.

 

[Pivot Piece]

That is not an easy run home lbh

It’s not bad at all. They are all below us on the ladder

 

[Lach72]

So we finished with 3 wins out of the first 4, a very positive result with a nice Dockery twist (lost to Wb, beat Sydney).
7 to go, need 3 to definitely play finals and probably 5 to make top 4.
Let's farking go.

Hawthorn [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (UTAS)
Fremantle [8d] vs Melbourne [8d] (Optus)
Fremantle [6d] vs West Coast [7d] (Optus)
Essendon [8d] vs Fremantle [8d] (MCG)

Fremantle [6d] vs Geelong [7d] (Optus)
GWS [7d] vs Fremantle [7d] (ENGIE Syd)
Fremantle [?] vs Port Adelaide [?] (Optus)


Must win: West Coast
Should win: Hawthorn, Melbourne
50/50: Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide
Who knows: GWS

Last four games against teams immediately below us right now.

These next three games are critical

 

[sumavich]

It’s not bad at all. They are all below us on the ladder

It's tight at the Top, and we are only a bee's dick from 8th or 9th

 

[ubiquitous226]

Crazt how things look different off one or two rounds though. Suddenly, Port, Geelong, Essendon and GWS are 50/50 rather than 70/30.

I started writing the same, go back a couple rounds and all of Port, Geelong and GWS looked like they were struggling, and now they've all had some good wins.

The equation still says the same though, if we could win 3 of the next 4 that should lock us into finals and then we swing for home in those last 3 to try and get that top 4 spot.
If we only get 2 (or worse) then it's a lot more pressure just to get into the finals.

However put another way, if we could take care of business at home, then we'd only need one more win to likely get that top 4 spot.
The Port game in particular is a big benefit in my mind to have at home, as all their wins against good teams have been at home except the Geelong game.

Great season for a neutral supporter though!
Although surely even they dislike Carlton..

 

[Joao]

I have us 60-40 or better against all sides remaining at home. Like the majority of performances this year, there were caveats on all those wins.

On those odds we probably lose one but we could make it up away. I think we win 4 or 5 and finish 5/6 or 3/4.

 

[Deanismyhero]

Rhino saying we have sunday arvo for R24 a game with possibly top 4 or at least finals implications on the line. Typical VFL scheduling... I sincerely hope it doesnt come down to a win to get in situation. id be feeling sick.