Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Mr Meow]

When Geelong were 11-1 and flying Ablett was doing very well as a forward in a dominant team. Obviously at 11-1 there’s plenty of goals, Brownlow votes and coaches votes to go around. Geelong kicked over 100-points in 6 of their first 12 games and 85+ in 4 others. They didn’t kick below 72-points in those 12 games.

But in their last 13 games Cats went 6-7. They kicked 100+ just twice. They kicked under 72-points 7 times in 13 games.

Obviously as the Cats dominance stopped the goals dried up. As did the Brownlow votes and coaches votes, especially for the forwards.

In last 13-games as the Cats struggled a bit he got 7 coaches votes (in 2 x big victories against lowly Blues and North) and zero Brownlow votes. He kicked just 12 goals and had just 7 goal assists. Against the best opposition in 3 x finals he had 1 x goal, 1 x goal assist and 6 x I50’s.. those are not averages, that’s total for the 3 x games. So not unlike most small-medium forwards he wasn’t able to impact when defence was strong and goals were at a premium.

And also like most small-medium forwards he made hay while the sun shone when Cats were 11-1 and flying.


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Practically nothing from the above post has anything to do with what I posted.

Ablett had more coaches votes than 3 times as many AA players in 2019 than Martin in 2023 (9x as many while their respective seasons were alive) - I'll take the coaches opinion over yours.

Better to play superbly and get those votes when your team is flying (which you are undoubtedly contributing to - it's rare for forward pockets to be rated in the top 3 players by coaches so often) than when your team is dead. The latter is what Martin's hot finish, especially round 23 and 24, amounted to. Dead time, white noise. If he put in those performances in the first half of the year maybe Richmond play finals. He didn't, they didn't.

It was an average year that turned into decent from the last 7 weeks or so. Too little, too late.

 

[Noidnadroj]

But if you're comparing votes it makes sense right. Martin's last two games had the importance of two pre season friendlies. Martin didn't play any finals this year. He played two more dead rubbers than finals in fact - the opposite of a tough, high pressure game.

If you do insist on using that logic then sure, add all of Ablett's 2019 finals goals, assists, SIs, disposals etc onto his totals and that 11/8 Ablett's way would quickly become 16/3 or more. They're excluded from Ablett because Martin didn't have a chance to play equivalent games.

Was Ablett really good when Geelong were 11-1 and flying? Yes, he was terrific.

Was Ablett below par when Geelong were 6-7 and struggling? Yes, outside of two thrashing of Carlton 129-61 and North 69-14 he was really poor and his three finals were shockers. It’s why he only just pipped Miers in the B&F. He would’ve been destroying him after Round 12.

That’s generally what happens when playing small-medium forward in a team that’s struggling.

Maybe we can see how other small-medium forwards in non-finalists go in B&F results to see how hard it can be and how well Martin did.


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[Mr Meow]

When Geelong were 11-1 and flying Ablett was doing very well as a forward in a dominant team. Obviously at 11-1 there’s plenty of goals, Brownlow votes and coaches votes to go around. Geelong kicked over 100-points in 6 of their first 12 games and 85+ in 4 others. They didn’t kick below 72-points in those 12 games.

But in their last 13 games Cats went 6-7. They kicked 100+ just twice. They kicked under 72-points 7 times in 13 games.

Obviously as the Cats dominance stopped the goals dried up. As did the Brownlow votes and coaches votes, especially for the forwards.

In last 13-games as the Cats struggled a bit he got 7 coaches votes (in 2 x big victories against lowly Blues and North) and zero Brownlow votes. He kicked just 12 goals and had just 7 goal assists. Against the best opposition in 3 x finals he had 1 x goal, 1 x goal assist and 6 x I50’s.. those are not averages, that’s total for the 3 x games. So not unlike most small-medium forwards he wasn’t able to impact when defence was strong and goals were at a premium.

And also like most small-medium forwards he made hay while the sun shone when Cats were 11-1 and flying.


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Geelong lost two of the three finals. Remind me how Martin's scoring metrics compare in winning to losing finals. And of course forward pockets struggle when their side does. He wasn't a roaming extra midfielder.

In one final he had Henderson at full forward as there was no Hawkins. In two finals there was no Rohan, and the two Gary's had worked very well together. In one final Geelong's best ball user Duncan was missing.

We are comparing H&A totals anyway. The fact that you have to reach into finals - which 2023 Martin did not even play in so are irrelevant - shows that you don't truly believe Martin's 2023 was better.

 

[Mr Meow]

Was Ablett really good when Geelong were 11-1 and flying? Yes, he was terrific.

Was Ablett below par when Geelong were 6-7 and struggling? Yes, outside of two thrashing of Carlton 129-61 and North 69-14 he was really poor and his three finals were shockers. It’s why he only just pipped Miers in the B&F. He would’ve been destroying him after Round 12.

That’s generally what happens when playing small-medium forward in a team that’s struggling.

Maybe we can see how other small-medium forwards in non-finalists go in B&F results to see how hard it can be and how well Martin did.


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Right, so then the same argument applies to Martin in finals. Was he outstanding when his team were flying, crushing practically every team in finals 2017, 2019, 2020? Sure. What about the years Richmond weren't a dominant finals side? 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022. His average scoring output goes right down. Looks like a front runner to me.

We know Ablett isn't a front runner as he won a Brownlow and two league MVPs at an awful side.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Martin was an extra midfielder (with full license to attack, and no onus to defend) this season. Bartel played a similar role at times.

Players operating in similar zones were Daicos, Gulden, Rozee and Petracca. He was comfortably below these players. 8 Brownlow votes compared to late 20s. There's a reason they made AA and he didn't.

Bartel averaged 20+ and 1+ goals twice in his career. Martin has done it 11 times. So I’m sure Jimmy appreciates the comparison.


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[Mr Meow]

Martin in finals series that his side were not flying: 0.5 goals and 0.5 assists per game (covering 5 different seasons). And these are finals in his prime: 22 to 31 years old. Always with his license to kill forward.

Ablett's dropping to 0.33 and 0.33 that finals series as a 35 year old doesn't seem so bad now.

 

[Mr Meow]

Bartel averaged 20+ and 1+ goals twice in his career. Martin has done it 11 times. So I’m sure Jimmy appreciates the comparison.


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Irrelevant. He and Ablett shared a similar role at times. You can call it hybrid mid/forward but it wasn't a forward pocket like Ablett 2019. Yet he still was left behind for coaches and Brownlow votes, by a distance until the dead rubbers, somehow.

20 isn't really that many disposals in the modern game.

How many times did Dusty go 28+ and 1+ goal? Just the one season, his stellar 2017.

How many times for Ablett? 7 times. And 3 other times he went bloody close. Maybe that's where twice as many AA selections came from?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

What on earth has any of that got to do with Dusty being the GOAT ?

It has to do with the post I quoted.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Expectations are so high an outstanding year is rated ‘decent’…

He averaged 23 touches, 9.8 contested, 2.9 clearances, 1.25 goals, 0.8 goal assists and 7.7 score involvements. In a 10-12-1 team.

As a comparison Rozee averaged 25.8, 8.5 CP, 3.8 CL, 0.8 goals, 0.6 goal assists and 7.0 SI’s. In a top-4 team.

Expectations are off the charts for his year to be rated ‘decent’. But that’s the bed he’s made for himself so all good.


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If any other player got those numbers, nobody would try to claim it as an outstanding year.
He's a great player, who had a decent year, but nothing special. It's not that big a deal.
Had his 8th lowest average disposal count (55th in the league).
6th lowest goal tally (56th).
13th lowest average tackles (268th for players with 15+ games).
6th lowest goal assists (47th).
7th lowest inside 50 average (17th).
11th lowest average clearances (113th).

I'm not saying that he can't or shouldn't be in the convo for GOAT (personally I hate trying to nail down one specific player as the best ever, there are too many variables - for any sport), but let's not overrate his season this year. It was good, but bang average by his standards.

 

[blaisee]

If any other player got those numbers, nobody would try to claim it as an outstanding year.
He's a great player, who had a decent year, but nothing special. It's not that big a deal.
Had his 8th lowest average disposal count (55th in the league).
6th lowest goal tally (56th).
13th lowest average tackles (268th for players with 15+ games).
6th lowest goal assists (47th).
7th lowest inside 50 average (17th).
11th lowest average clearances (113th).

I'm not saying that he can't or shouldn't be in the convo for GOAT (personally I hate trying to nail down one specific player as the best ever, there are too many variables - for any sport), but let's not overrate his season this year. It was good, but bang average by his standards.

yep bang average if you are the goat

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

yep bang average if you are the goat

Like I said, I'm not a fan of GOAT labels and I'm not saying that GAJ is the GOAT, but GAJ's peak was higher and for longer.
Dusty is ONE OF the all-time greats, but not the best IMO.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Right, so then the same argument applies to Martin in finals. Was he outstanding when his team were flying, crushing practically every team in finals 2017, 2019, 2020? Sure. What about the years Richmond weren't a dominant finals side? 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022. His average scoring output goes right down. Looks like a front runner to me.

We know Ablett isn't a front runner as he won a Brownlow and two league MVPs at an awful side.

We are talking about Ablett’s 2019, aren’t we? He was awesome first 12 games, below average last 13-games. It was his first season as pretty much a permanent forward, which is a very tough gig in a mediocre team.

I never mentioned GC or Ablett as a midfielder, I was just assessing his 2019 as a forward. I don’t think anything I’ve said about his 2019 season is inaccurate and I never said he was a front runner.


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[Mr Meow]

We are talking about Ablett’s 2019, aren’t we? He was awesome first 12 games, below average last 13-games. It was his first season as pretty much a permanent forward, which is a very tough gig in a mediocre team.

I never mentioned GC or Ablett as a midfielder, I was just assessing his 2019 as a forward. I don’t think anything I’ve said about his 2019 season is inaccurate and I never said he was a front runner.


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I'm showing that if you apply the same argument to most players it fits. Especially losing Vs winning finals and premiership Vs non premiership seasons. Martin 2023's H&A isn't elevated above GAJ's simply because he and his side ran out of puff when finals started.

If Richmond qualified for finals this season and Martin went on to average 20 disposals and 2.5 goals a game in those finals it would be a different story. But judging how arguably his two best games came in dead rubbers, it's a logical leap to suggest he would've maintained his numbers in finals in a non-dominant side.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Geelong lost two of the three finals. Remind me how Martin's scoring metrics compare in winning to losing finals. And of course forward pockets struggle when their side does. He wasn't a roaming extra midfielder.

In one final he had Henderson at full forward as there was no Hawkins. In two finals there was no Rohan, and the two Gary's had worked very well together. In one final Geelong's best ball user Duncan was missing.

We are comparing H&A totals anyway. The fact that you have to reach into finals - which 2023 Martin did not even play in so are irrelevant - shows that you don't truly believe Martin's 2023 was better.

So when comparing Ablett’s 2019 season with Martin’s 2023 season, you want to:

1. Remove Ablett’s finals as Martin didn’t play any and Ablett didn’t play well.

2. Disregard Martin’s last couple of H&A games as he did play well in them, but that doesn’t really count as Richmond couldn’t make finals.

I wonder, if Ablett won the Ayres award in 2019 and a Norm Smith, would you want that included in a 2019 v 2023 comparison … gee, I wonder…it goes without saying if Ablett did achieve that then Martin’s 2023 season wouldn’t be in the same ballpark as GAJ’s 2019.

What next? When comparing Pendlebury’s 2013 to Martin’s 2020 take out Martin’s SF, PF and GF BOG’s because Pendlebury didn’t play beyond the EF..??



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[Mr Meow]

So when comparing Ablett’s 2019 season with Martin’s 2023 season, you want to:

1. Remove Ablett’s finals as Martin didn’t play any and Ablett didn’t play well.

2. Disregard Martin’s last couple of H&A games as he did play well in them, but that doesn’t really count as Richmond couldn’t make finals.

I wonder, if Ablett won the Ayres award in 2019 and a Norm Smith, would you want that included in a 2019 v 2023 comparison … gee, I wonder…it goes without saying if Ablett did achieve that then Martin’s 2023 season wouldn’t be in the same ballpark as GAJ’s 2019.

What next? When comparing Pendlebury’s 2013 to Martin’s 2020 take out Martin’s SF, PF and GF BOG’s because Pendlebury didn’t play beyond the EF..??



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The initial comparison was always H&A because it was a reply to Richmond supporters drumming up the Martin 2023 AA run. Within H&A the only people that cared about Martin's dominant dead rubber double was that same Martin AA crowd. For stats I think it's fine, but it's silly to not acknowledge 5 Brownlow votes and 30 coaches votes to the point Richmond were knocked out of finals contention was a modest total. If he actually played forward pocket fair enough. But he was that extra midfielder with a license to attack, attack, attack.

And yes it would've been damn hard for Pendlebury to win an Ayres medal and NS in 2013. Even harder for Ablett that year.

Dangerfield was great in the 2016 finals series but Geelong had one scratchy match (where he was a little unlucky to receive low votes on) and one terrible one where Sydney were always going to clean up the votes. Throw him in a dominant side 6 years later and he cleans up the Ayres award and probably deserved a NS. Opportunities and how your side are placed do matter come finals. Martin certainly never dominated finals outside of those 3 flag years and he had 5 other finals series.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Irrelevant. He and Ablett shared a similar role at times. You can call it hybrid mid/forward but it wasn't a forward pocket like Ablett 2019. Yet he still was left behind for coaches and Brownlow votes, by a distance until the dead rubbers, somehow.

20 isn't really that many disposals in the modern game.

How many times did Dusty go 28+ and 1+ goal? Just the one season, his stellar 2017.

How many times for Ablett? 7 times. And 3 other times he went bloody close. Maybe that's where twice as many AA selections came from?

You said Bartel often played a similar role to Martin. I said he’d be chuffed with the comparison as Bartel had averaged 20+ and 1+ twice in his career compared to Martin’s 11. What does Ablett have to do with a comment about Bartel?

Players in a role allowing them to average 20+ touches rarely kick many goals. And players in a role enabling 1+ goal per game rarely get a lot of the ball. Bartel was a super player, and memory has him as a goal kicking midfielder … but he did 20+ and 1+ just twice playing mostly in a dominant and high possession team, proving that it is quite difficult to achieve.

That’s not a slight on Bartel, as everyone has different roles and other superstars like Selwood (twice), Judd (three times) and Pendlebury (once) were rarely able to kick the goals required either.


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[Mr Meow]

You said Bartel often played a similar role to Martin. I said he’d be chuffed with the comparison as Bartel had averaged 20+ and 1+ twice in his career compared to Martin’s 11. What does Ablett have to do with a comment about Bartel?

Players in a role allowing them to average 20+ touches rarely kick many goals. And players in a role enabling 1+ goal per game rarely get a lot of the ball. Bartel was a super player, and memory has him as a goal kicking midfielder … but he did 20+ and 1+ just twice playing mostly in a dominant and high possession team, proving that it is quite difficult to achieve.

That’s not a slight on Bartel, as everyone has different roles and other superstars like Selwood (twice), Judd (three times) and Pendlebury (once) were rarely able to kick the goals required either.


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Now do 28+ and 1 (for every player in history). It's even harder.

 

[Noidnadroj]

If any other player got those numbers, nobody would try to claim it as an outstanding year.
He's a great player, who had a decent year, but nothing special. It's not that big a deal.
Had his 8th lowest average disposal count (55th in the league).
6th lowest goal tally (56th).
13th lowest average tackles (268th for players with 15+ games).
6th lowest goal assists (47th).
7th lowest inside 50 average (17th).
11th lowest average clearances (113th).

I'm not saying that he can't or shouldn't be in the convo for GOAT (personally I hate trying to nail down one specific player as the best ever, there are too many variables - for any sport), but let's not overrate his season this year. It was good, but bang average by his standards.

I disagree completely in regards to if another player did that it wouldn’t be regarded as anything special.

He was playing in the same type of role as Brent Daniels, who played in a PF team. People were raving about what a terrific season Daniels had, which he did. His and Bedford were both crucial forwards this year.

Martin 2023 v Daniels 2023:

Disposals: 23.6 v 16.8
Goals: 1.2 v 1.3
GA’s: 0.8 v 0.9
I50’s: 5.0 v 3.6
CP: 9.8 v 6.8
Clearances: 2.9 v 1.9
SI’s: 7.7 v 6.3

Given Daniels was already regarded as having an excellent and highly underrated year, imagine he averaged 23 touches and 7.7 score involvements and not 16.8 and 6.3…..



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[Aristotle Pickett]

Martin, who was runner-up to Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

in the 2023 count, has finished top three nine times, which is one more than Kevin Bartlett and Wayne Campbell.

Keep up the hate for one of the greats who lets his boots do the talking.

 

[Purple Suit]

Martin, who was runner-up to Tim Taranto in the 2023 count, has finished top three nine times, which is one more than Kevin Bartlett and Wayne Campbell.

Keep up the hate for one of the greats who lets his boots do the talking.

Still nowhere near the goat though. If it was a best 4 year contest it might be worth making a thread about.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Still nowhere near the goat though. If it was a best 4 year contest it might be worth making a thread about.

No he's not the goat but at the end of his career there could well be a compelling case.

 

[PhatBoy]

Martin, who was runner-up to Tim Taranto in the 2023 count, has finished top three nine times, which is one more than Kevin Bartlett and Wayne Campbell.

Keep up the hate for one of the greats who lets his boots do the talking.

Keep up the theory that not thinking a player is ranked #1 out of all the players to ever lace on a boot, is tantamount to ‘hate.’

 

[Noidnadroj]

Martin, who was runner-up to Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

in the 2023 count, has finished top three nine times, which is one more than Kevin Bartlett and Wayne Campbell.

Keep up the hate for one of the greats who lets his boots do the talking.

Even the most fervent critic of Martin doesn’t really dispute his finals performances, so downgrading him has largely been around talking down his consistency in H&A football.

9 x top-3 in B&F
11 x 20+ and 1+ seasons
210+ Brownlow votes
4 x AA
4 x AA squad
At an average of 24.6 disposals and 1.1 goals, he averages more disposals AND more goals than 8 x AA Dangerfield across their careers. (Modern day great with I think 14 x top-3 B&F finished Pendles averages 25.8 and 0.5. 2 x Brownlow medallist Fyfe 24.8 and 0.8)

So happy to hear arguments against his claims for GOAT status, no worries at all. But basing it on some misconception he hasn’t been consistently elite at H&A level is not really based up by any of the data.


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[Noidnadroj]

Coaches rated Martin the 3rd best player that night, so he did miss out on a vote. Dangerfield got duck eggs with 12 score involvements and 16 contested possessions in round 21 vs Collingwood. Also rated 3rd best on ground by coaches so missed a vote.

There wasn't a hell of a lot between them other than Dangerfield having more BOGs. Martin received coaches votes in 40% of the matches he played, Dangerfield received them in 39% of the matches he played. But the latter did have two of those games pinging a hammy just after half time and breaking ribs early in the 2nd quarter of another.

The main difference was Martin's burst came end of year and Dangerfield's was round 4-8 (right up until he did his hammy, 2nd BOG at that point). Once his ribs were caved in he played quite obviously injured to finish the year and so was reduced to small bursts (it was a big reason we didn't make finals - he and Cameron were cooked - making the Collingwood game a bizarre spectacle).

Interesting there has been comparison of Danger v Martin in 2023:

Danger finished 8th in their B&F on 62 votes. 73 votes behind Stewart. Tom Atkins finished 2nd and Zac Guthrie 4th, so it wasn’t really a high quality field. (Atkins second …. I’m sure even Cats fans are staggered by that?).

So at least it puts to bed any thought of Danger’s 2023 being anywhere near Martin’s, who made the AA squad and finished a clear 2nd in Richmond’s B&F despite missing 3 games.

I’m sure there’ll be some mental gymnastics to rate Dangers year somehow as high as Martin’s…. or maybe the facts will finally win out ..??


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[Roby]

How many years will this thread go on for?