Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

Can the Hawks make finals in 2024?


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I didn't see that % booster coming. Even if we lose two more I can see us being in the hunt with two big wins against the Tigers and North, thinking about getting over to Adelaide for next week now

I can't see us losing three on the spin, so if we can find a way somehow to win one of the next three we could set ourselves up for back to back thrashings to finish
 

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Just keep winning. Weirder things have happened than North or Richmond getting a late season win against us (of course it looks unlikely on current form). All we can ask is that we hold our fate in our hands before stepping out against North in the final round.

Flip side is top 4 isn't out of the question if we can get the next 3. Fun times 😄
 
won easily yesterday. Hawks are playing finals in 2024, the real question now is can we grab a top four spot.
see us beating Carlton in round 22 and then again in week one of the finals.
 
It’s such an odd season. Anywhere from 2nd to 13th is in play with 5 weeks to go. The Dogs winning is annoying but the equation really remains the same: win 4 of the next 5 and we make it. Win 3, and win them well to boost percentage, and it’s a maybe. With the two worst sides, percentage boost is very plausible. Win less than 3 and it’s all over. Win all 5 and probably finish 2nd.
 
It’s honestly a remarkable season.

Over the past 30 years, 12 wins gets you into the finals 73% of the time.

Even more remarkably, 13 wins gets you in 100% of the time.

I think there’s a very real chance we win 13 and miss. Doesn’t take anything away from the season, but boy it’s gonna be fun.
There is an extra round now, so 14 is the new 13.
 
12 wins definitely higher than 0% chance, but very much more reliant on some upsets going our way to make 12 wins work (and very big wins in the two remaining wins). If one of those 2 wins was a big win against GWS, the chances of still getting in with 12 improve quite a bit, but of course, still a very outside chance.
Ok. Maybe 10%.
 

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19 less seconds of game time this season and we are sitting in 6th at the moment. Just sayin’.
We can’t be sure we win all these other games without that loss. We learned a hell of a lot from that game.
 
Not if we lose to both Adelaide and GWS.
We can if it gets us to 13 wins and a series of eight-point games split teams above us (ie Port v Carlton, Swans v Port, Dees v Giants, Dogs v Swans, Dees v Dogs, Lions v Giants, Lions v Suns, Dees v Pies, Dons v Freo and Dons v Suns etc)

Most of the contenders have just as many eight-pointers as us - if not more.
 
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The back to back travel is the most brutal part of our run home, especially since we've just come off a Perth into Geelong into Tassie into Melbourne run. The upside is the GWS game is in Manuka rather than Western Sydney, and that ground's dimensions are very similar to the MCG, and not sure the Giants have a great record there themselves. Also we play Adelaide without Rankine and Dawson, two massive outs.

How we manage our young team is important given above. I loved we have brought in Ward, and also Maginness this week, two elite power runners in the part of the year sides are tiring in the middle of the slog of winter. Two elite runners who are fit and and desperate to play during this tough road trip period could be a good way to manage and get guys like MacKenzie through the season. I also don't think we have seen the end of Gunston for the year.
 
Looking at the draw, the Dogs are now being talked up as a potential top 4 aspirant. Yet they still need to play the Swans (away), Dees, Crows (away) and Giants. Port have the Blues (away), the Swans, the Crows (showdown) and Freo (away) and the Dons have the Dockers, Suns, Swans and Lions (away).

By comparison our run home is pretty vanilla
 
I think can only make it on 13 wins if one of our 3 remaining wins is the Giants. Otherwise we will need 14. The Giants game is critical. Dogs winning this weekend against Cats is annoying but Melbourne taking a percentage hammering and the Essendon loss are good.

Giants Port and Essendon remain the three vulnerable sides given their fixtures
 

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Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

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