Racing Caulfield Cup Day 2021 * All race day discussion in here *

[HeathySure]

Dunedin and MDC both went back from the wide barrier and there was plenty of pace. Not sure that Incentivise will do that. Has been known to half miss the start too. There should be pace underneath it given 18 horses trying to find a position. Barrier has made it a huge risk now, pretty much makes it a no bet race for me (or back a few roughies and leave Incentivise out all together). Would like to see it come out and kill them but all my confidence is gone.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Dunedin and MDC both went back from the wide barrier and there was plenty of pace. Not sure that Incentivise will do that. Has been known to half miss the start too. There should be pace underneath it given 18 horses trying to find a position. Barrier has made it a huge risk now, pretty much makes it a no bet race for me (or back a few roughies and leave Incentivise out all together). Would like to see it come out and kill them but all my confidence is gone.

I was half prepared to take him on pre-barriers but its more that everything else with a genuine chance drew poorly too.

Great race though, all of top 4 would be have solid favourite claims most years. Shame we are probably playing in a bog.

 

[Ah12]

The more i look at this race the more i dont mind the barrier for Incentivise.

Clearly not ideal drawing the car park but everything thats drawn inside and with a chance goes back. I can fear those horses getting boxed in if the rail doesn’t present itself as they hit the straight. Only real winner i see from the draw is Young Werther and i wont be suprised if the leaders cross straight from the outside.

Cmon Prebble, give us a piece of magic.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The more i look at this race the more i dont mind the barrier for Incentivise.

Clearly not ideal drawing the car park but everything thats drawn inside and with a chance goes back. I can fear those horses getting boxed in if the rail doesn’t present itself as they hit the straight. Only real winner i see from the draw is Young Werther and i wont be suprised if the leaders cross straight from the outside.

Cmon Prebble, give us a piece of magic.

Unlike Flemington CC presents that short time to the corner. A concern working and wide into the bend as he’s not a fast horse. Heavy track brings in more variables.

 

[Ah12]

Normally this is a great race for exotics but not so this year with an even money fave and to be honest the market looks as good as solved to me.

Moral - Incentivise

Moral Exacta - Delphi
Only Danger - Young Werther

Can place - Homesman, Montefilia, Young Werther
Flukers place hopes - Nonconformist, TCO, Duais, Port G

Incentivise only horse I'll be taking on the win line in exotics.

Explosive Jack?

 

[iluvparis]

Explosive Jack?

Yeah he should have been in the can place group where I had YW twice. Think he is still a bit too slow. Might be ok at Flemington where some of them start to slow down a bit

 

[iluvparis]

Dunedin and MDC both went back from the wide barrier and there was plenty of pace. Not sure that Incentivise will do that. Has been known to half miss the start too. There should be pace underneath it given 18 horses trying to find a position. Barrier has made it a huge risk now, pretty much makes it a no bet race for me (or back a few roughies and leave Incentivise out all together). Would like to see it come out and kill them but all my confidence is gone.

A horse like Admire Rakti sat 3 wide the trip and was just to good for them. Will probably be the same here no matter where he settles. I assume he just leads anyway in a race with very little pace - can only see Homey and QT as others that would want to be up on the lure - and if he is slowly away its better to be wide than drawn inside and get crossed anyway. Mummify drew pretty wide and got to the lead on his absolute tit - I expect it to go down something like that.

Like the mo a better barrier just means a better price (which won’t last) especially when the main danger is also cast. The bigger danger is the mystery of how he goes if its utterly bottomless (and again - the main danger really wants it dry) rather than the barrier and at current prices you are getting much more than the compensation required to worry about that.

 

[54Dogs]

Predictions for what Incent SPs?

Hard to see it being much shorter than 2.4 > 2.5 ish

 

[iluvparis]

Predictions for what Incent SPs?

Hard to see it being much shorter than 2.4 > 2.5 ish

Anamoe board

$2.20 BSP

 

[iluvparis]

$170 in the VIC TAB win pool and Delphi 2.60 fave - rumours abound bet was placed at Sunbury TAB

 

[Jugada]

Awful barrier for Incent no matter how you try to spin it. He might still be too good but you would be taking at least 18 other barriers before this one. Almost certainly gets trapped 3-5 deep no cover for the first 600m and tries to just get outside the lead or lead. Best case is probably a gap opening up at some point and being able to drop in for awhile and be ridden like Best Solution was

 

[iluvparis]

Awful barrier for Incent no matter how you try to spin it. He might still be too good but you would be taking at least 18 other barriers before this one. Almost certainly gets trapped 3-5 deep no cover for the first 600m and tries to just get outside the lead or lead. Best case is probably a gap opening up at some point and being able to drop in for awhile and be ridden like Best Solution was

1-5 and risk getting cluttered up inside slowies having missed the kick would have been worse.

There is not that many horses that go forward here - he either leads on his tit like Mummify or sits in behind Homey and QT with Delphi. Given that happy to be wrong but can't see how he is going to be 4-5 wide without cover for 600m. There is no speed in this race and hardly any horses that want to go forward

Barrier just means a better price for those who can't map properly #betbig #betoften

 

[iluvparis]

I actually just went back and looked at the last handful of CC's. More recently anything that has drawn wide has given up and gone back - but those that show intent have managed to cross easily and lead by the post - particularly Tally in 2016 and Amelia's Dream in 2017. Best Solution is a poor comparison as he was squeezed out at the jump and was almost still dead last after 100m - sure if that happens he is in trouble but that seems a pretty extreme corner case to me.

The other problem is if 5 or 6 who don't normally go forward go out there with getting him beat as the only thing in my mind - but pretty rare for that to happen in such a major race (its not being run in Queensland FFS).

And again - a lot of this is negated by the clear second pick drawing equally as bad as him.

 

[Jugada]

1-5 and risk getting cluttered up inside slowies having missed the kick would have been worse.

There is not that many horses that go forward here - he either leads on his tit like Mummify or sits in behind Homey and QT with Delphi. Given that happy to be wrong but can't see how he is going to be 4-5 wide without cover for 600m. There is no speed in this race and hardly any horses that want to go forward

Barrier just means a better price for those who can't map properly #betbig #betoften

Homesman, Quick Thinker and Delphi are all going to try to push forward from wide gates. Nonconformist will also want to be handy you would think. Some of those will have to work to get across the ones trying to hold a position still and Incent is going to be the widest of all them coming across. Almost certainly will be working for awhile.

Not a single person is taking 20 over 5... if he doesnt have the speed to hold a position from 5 then he sure as hell isnt getting near crossing from 20

 

[HeathySure]

Predictions for what Incent SPs?

Hard to see it being much shorter than 2.4 > 2.5 ish

it will drift to about $2.70 and then depending on how the track plays on the day will either shorten or drift right out. Taking the price now is stupid. Unless you are locked in at a decent price now don't bet until you see what happens on the day.

 

[iluvparis]

Not a single person is taking 20 over 5... if he doesnt have the speed to hold a position from 5 then he sure as hell isnt getting near crossing from 20

Incorrect as you cant get crossed from 20 - so if you are a step or to slow away you still have room to cross from out wide - and you've mentioned only 5 horses that go forward - and one is right next to him in the barriers - unless they go forward all together 5 wide then he is not getting caught 4-5 deep. 1-2 of those 5 will be looking to slot in off the leaders (especially a horse like Nonconformist). Worst case I can reasonably see is Homey/QT and Delphi/Nonc pair off and he ends up 3 wide.

 

[iluvparis]

it will drift to about $2.70 and then depending on how the track plays on the day will either shorten or drift right out. Taking the price now is stupid. Unless you are locked in at a decent price now don't bet until you see what happens on the day.

The chance of this horse with this profile meaningfully drifting past 2.70 because of 'how the track is playing' is virtually zero - what kind of track are we expecting that will be that solidly against him?

Guys we have been through this last week - its Anamoe all over again.

 

[HeathySure]

Incorrect as you cant get crossed from 20 - so if you are a step or to slow away you still have room to cross from out wide.

this reminds me of the time dumbarse Glen Munsie said Houtzen was better off drawn the car park in the magic Millions than inside

 

[Jugada]

Incorrect as you cant get crossed from 20 - so if you are a step or to slow away you still have room to cross from out wide.

If he misses the kick from 20 he is not getting within 4 of the rail if he tries to lead. All things being equal 5 is always going to be better for him than 20

 

[iluvparis]

If he misses the kick from 20 he is not getting within 4 of the rail if he tries to lead. All things being equal 5 is always going to be better for him than 20

Horrendous take - have you done a map mate - THERE IS NO PACE

 

[iluvparis]

this reminds me of the time dumbarse Glen Munsie said Houtzen was better off drawn the car park in the magic Millions than inside

And it won

 

[HeathySure]

And it won

ive never said it cannot win. But if you think drawing 20 is better than 5..

 

[iluvparis]

ive never said it cannot win. But if you think drawing 20 is better than 5..

Yes 5 is better than 20 - equally 20 is better than 1 if you are the clear best horse in the race

 

[Jugada]

Easy to spot the lads on pre barrier draw

 

[54Dogs]

Incent currently 2.80 BF if that holds with the Sat morning reverse commission offer is close enough to $3