Caulfield Cup Day

[The Sqawka]

Well, what are the tips and inside news we all have?

I am going to only speak of the cup itself. Basically its a very tough race to pick, so i have simply narrowed the field to these horses.

Winning Chances:
Master O'Reilly, Littorio, Nom De Jeu and Red Ruler (Maldivian)

Will dissapoint
Weekend Hussler (just not suited 2400, will be the new Miss Finland)

Good on form but..
Duro Valley (Great win in Yalumba, however over 2400 cant beat stable mate Master O'reilly)

Dolphin Jo (Expect big run again, but just short of pure class in this stronger field)

Roughie
Mad Rush
Kibbutz

The unknown
Maldivian? totally unsure after last year one gets the feeling kav might have really preped it for this race. 6th last start in a strong feidl was not a bad little lead up. could win!

 

[carltonblue]

good post. caulfield cup where do they all fit would have been a better place for it!
dont forget formtalk friday 8.30pm mate!

 

[brent-83]

Heading over to Melbourne for my first spring carnival meeting this weekend. Can't wait but will miss the form talk on Friday.

 

[King_Mallee]

I had a dream that Master O'Reilly won. I'll probably follow this dream as I dont have the greatest knowledge on horse races.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

The two favourites, Weekend Hussler & Littorio have been talked up something massive by their trainers this week and both say they're going to be mighty hard to beat. I'm not so sure, I think Hussler may need a bit of a rest as his turn of foot as gone missing in its last couple of runs, but it may come back for this race.

 

[the_fresh]

I still can't go past W/end Hussler

He's class. forget & forgive his last start, was stuck wide, never gave up while the winner had no weight & a good run into the race.

 

[danielz_23]

The hype doesn't add up to me...

Master O'Reilly seems to be a real good thing... distance - no worries, track - no worries, lead up - no worries, won this race before - no worries... he has done nothing to disappoint.

I certainly respect and do not dismiss Weekend Hussler... everyone seems to think they are special for claiming he won't win... sure the task is up to him but he has rarely disappointed.

Master O'Reilly is surely the 'moral' pick. Littorio has been impressive but its O'Reilly's face...

current odds of $7.50

 

[TimBurr]

master o at 7.50 and Littorio at $10 with luxbet's promo will do me... if the hussler gets up ill happily loose my money as have it into septimus from months ago.

also i like Moran Dollar on cup day

 

[KardiniaPark]

Not sure yet. Ill have a better look tonight but at the moment maybe Nom De jeu?. I also noticed Kibbutz was in the field?. I thought it had broken down the other week?. Anyway i thought it was looking good for the cup up until that race so i might have a look at him as well. But its too early to be sure of anything yet. Obviously Littorio, Master O & Hussler are the big 3 and ill back whichever of them is $7 plus. I cant believe hussler has come up favourite today!!

 

[Knowitall]

I really think it is a 3 horse race.

Littorio, Massive win last start with no weight and will take beeting. Yet to run a bad race so far.

Master O'Riely, Looks a pretty good thing 1L 2nd last start and is 0.5kgs better off to littorio.

However every way i look i lean towards Duro Valley. 2nd last year been set for this race and will be further into his preparation than the Master and has been kept pretty fresh backs up for the first time this spring. has 2.5kg's on the Master and from barrier 4 if can sit behind the speed and explode with 400 to go i think he may take some catching.

If i am completly down wrong track please let me know as he cost me big time on weekend due to pompeii ruler and i really don't feel like loosing again!

 

[danielz_23]

I'm not convinced by Douro's pedigree... hard to fault him after the last start win and place in last years race... I'm not really giving much weight to that last start win though... could be to my demise but you've got to draw a line somewhere.

He may be further into his prep but Master O'Reilly showed he wasn't lacking much in a quality race last start. All the big guns were in it... and look where he finished off, should only improve? Whereas the others had more runs under them (and continue to).

 

[StringyDog]

I think Master O'Rielly is massively under the odds, with the way he has run this prep looks set to get to peak at Melb cup which I think he is being aimed at. The other two favourites have doubts as well with WH at distance (but I think he could still possibly win) and Littorio at track. Looks like a good year to have a crack at the tri as could be some good double figure odds for the winner

 

[danielz_23]

Kibbutz is out - for the record.

 

[hess]

barriers have opened it up a bit.
Was keen on Guillotine and Nom De Jeu before but both drew badly and have the task ahead of them.
Red Ruler as well but barrier 1 historically is tough to win from here, and as I like both of these have to give a chance to Boundless who has drawn well.

Riva San and Douro Valley are probably the each way value, both in good enough form and drew well.
Master O'Reilly will run well but won't be peaked just yet, should be in the finish though. Probably has more improvement in it than Littorio on the last run, but Littorio won easily enough to suggest it should still have its measure.

Will have a closer look later. I'll probably just play the trifecta and take something each way at some value.

 

[Danger Mouse]

Go with the "class" factor" and who is a "proven" stayer. Do that and it narrows down the field very significantly!

 

[bomberboy44]

Ice Charriot, drawn well and barring its last start third in the wet up in sydney, has been flying its previous to starts this prep. A little bit each way.

 

[discoduck]

Going to make this a thread about the day know, seeing as though that's what the title suggests.

It's early I know, but I probably won't get a chance tomorrow to put forward my piece, and we know that that is important.

Race 1 - Ballerina Girl
Race 2 - Poco Gusto
Race 3 - Heart Of Dreams
Race 4 - Larry's Never Late
Race 5 - Cargo Cult
Race 6 - Trick Of Light
Race 7 - Kingda Ka
Race 8 - Mad Rush / Riva San
Race 9 - Aichi
Race 10 - Sashenka

Have a great day.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

Maybe we should merge this thread with the C Cup where do they all fit in thread....

Anyway this is what I have come up with so far...plus a bit of a rant on this field and last years compared to previous years. I will be having a few beers tonight and will miss the form talk, as a few other probably will so instead of working im happy to have a bit if a form talk during the day..

Gone are the days of the stars, sunline, northerly, doremius, might and power, yippio, more recently the diva, lad of the manor, el segundo, pompeii ruler, fields of omagh obviously not all these horses faced off in Caufield Cups but they did in previous races.

This year the Turnball was the "star studded field" but to me it was certaintly lacking on previous years. Last years Cup was effected by EI and the field was declared by many as a B Grade field, with the exception of the in form Big Mal and we all know what happened there.....

Master O and Douro Valley went on to quinella the B Grade Cup against some pretty awful opposition. Since then they've done a bit, but they havent really had anything threatening to race against...

This years Cup thankgod has a couple of Aussie stars and some very prominent internationals, which will lift the standard of the race to somewhere near A Grade.

Going back to the Turnball we had Weekend Hussler a star, Tuesday Joy who bled who may have found it to long, then the top 3, zipping a glorified b grader, Master O a glorified B grader and a definite A grader Littorio who in all honestly donkey licked that field.

Then who did Douro Valley beat last week, A David Hayes hack Gullitone who looks like a scunned rat, Pompeii Ruler who did its tendon and C graders in casual pass etc.

Add to this the fact that Master O has an extra 6 kilos in this years cup and the whispers that Douro Valley wasnt feeding well earlier on in the week (SEN).

Basically what Im doing is trying to put a line through a number of horses on the basis of class. As mentioned previously we have been short on proven WFA distance gallopers in the last couple of years. For this reason I am putting a line through every Australian horse bar Littorio is by far the best horse in the race, (taking into account the hussler cant stay the trip and Mals form / barrier) he has placed in all his runs this prep and is jumpin out of its skin for more ground.

Next I like the NZ form and thought the Kelt was a fantastically run race. Im going to put a line through Red Ruler as I dont like its barrier draw but really like the form of Boundless and its trainer / jockey and barrier.

cheers

 

[Santoz]

My Tips:

Race 1 - Lodore Falls
Race 2 - Estee
Race 3 - Tindal
Race 4 - Excelltastic
Race 5 - Murtajill (Stickpin E/W)
Race 6 - Tan Tat De Lago E/W
Race 7 - Alexander of Hales E/W Saddler's Story E/W
Race 8 - Littorio (Zagreb E/W)
Race 9 - Aichi (Grand Duels E/W)
Race 10 - Interfere (Amberino E/W)

 

[The Casey Cat]

Good grief. Litorrio at $6 . Loving it.

 

[hess]

My thoughts:
Race 1: Movin' Out
Race 2: Tough race, Freedom March
Race 3: Like Bhutane Dane but probably can't make up the margin on Tindal. Drumbeats to go well as well.
Race 4: Quite keen on Larry's Never Late, good draw and blinkers and has been running well recently think it should win this but its fairly open.
Race 5: Royal Discretion each way.
Race 6: Good field. Mimi Lebrock and Gamble Me two of my favourites.
Race 7: Kingda Ka
Race 8: Littorio won easily last time but got all the favours, its win strike rate is still a worry. Will be running on well. I think Guillotine will push forward from the gate, does it get caught wide or can Williams get a sit? I think it'll put itself into the race and if it gets luck early will be hard to beat. Master O'Reilly looks good but will be improving off this run to peak at Flemington. A host of other chances, think WH created good value if you can find the winner or trifecta.
Race 9:Good race. Sunburnt Land hard to beat but Grand Duels and Red Element have chances. Will stick with Hurried Choice EW, at its best its capable of winning this.
Race 10: Hopefully won't need to be betting by now. Interfere and Disciplined in a hard race IMO.

Snowden and Gai look to have good teams. A bit wary that it seems I'll be going with a lot of Gai's horses given her record in Melbourne.

 

[carltonblue]

Maybe we should merge this thread with the C Cup where do they all fit in thread....

Anyway this is what I have come up with so far...plus a bit of a rant on this field and last years compared to previous years. I will be having a few beers tonight and will miss the form talk, as a few other probably will so instead of working im happy to have a bit if a form talk during the day..

Gone are the days of the stars, sunline, northerly, doremius, might and power, yippio, more recently the diva, lad of the manor, el segundo, pompeii ruler, fields of omagh obviously not all these horses faced off in Caufield Cups but they did in previous races.

This year the Turnball was the "star studded field" but to me it was certaintly lacking on previous years. Last years Cup was effected by EI and the field was declared by many as a B Grade field, with the exception of the in form Big Mal and we all know what happened there.....

Master O and Douro Valley went on to quinella the B Grade Cup against some pretty awful opposition. Since then they've done a bit, but they havent really had anything threatening to race against...

This years Cup thankgod has a couple of Aussie stars and some very prominent internationals, which will lift the standard of the race to somewhere near A Grade.

Going back to the Turnball we had Weekend Hussler a star, Tuesday Joy who bled who may have found it to long, then the top 3, zipping a glorified b grader, Master O a glorified B grader and a definite A grader Littorio who in all honestly donkey licked that field.

Then who did Douro Valley beat last week, A David Hayes hack Gullitone who looks like a scunned rat, Pompeii Ruler who did its tendon and C graders in casual pass etc.

Add to this the fact that Master O has an extra 6 kilos in this years cup and the whispers that Douro Valley wasnt feeding well earlier on in the week (SEN).

Basically what Im doing is trying to put a line through a number of horses on the basis of class. As mentioned previously we have been short on proven WFA distance gallopers in the last couple of years. For this reason I am putting a line through every Australian horse bar Littorio is by far the best horse in the race, (taking into account the hussler cant stay the trip and Mals form / barrier) he has placed in all his runs this prep and is jumpin out of its skin for more ground.

Next I like the NZ form and thought the Kelt was a fantastically run race. Im going to put a line through Red Ruler as I dont like its barrier draw but really like the form of Boundless and its trainer / jockey and barrier.

cheers

sure you havent started the beers early?

 

[Scottroo]

ive been studying and studying the form in this race, there are a few chances but for me the horse that keeps coming up is number 18 ZAGREB,

FORM at Caufield- Check, has had 3 starts at the track for a 2nd and a 1st.

Distance, won 2 starts ago over 2000 metres and absoulutely flew home, i know 2000m isnt 2400m but the way this thing finished it had PLENTY left in the tank

Barrier, absoulute dream barrier in number 7, will sit midfield and absoulutely fly home.

checked 2 hours ago and on uNItAB It was paying 18 dollars, now into 11s, i reckon this thing will jump at around 12s and was absoulutely stoked to get on fixed odds at 15/1

 

[hatchd]

I like Maldivian @ the $19. Has never run at the distance but looks like this is his race if he hasn't gone off.

I also expect Fumincino to run a good race in the cup.

Also like Excelltastic, and Sunburnt Lad. Snipers Bullet on class @ big odds.

 

[KardiniaPark]

ive been studying and studying the form in this race, there are a few chances but for me the horse that keeps coming up is number 18 ZAGREB,

FORM at Caufield- Check, has had 3 starts at the track for a 2nd and a 1st.

Distance, won 2 starts ago over 2000 metres and absoulutely flew home, i know 2000m isnt 2400m but the way this thing finished it had PLENTY left in the tank

Barrier, absoulute dream barrier in number 7, will sit midfield and absoulutely fly home.

checked 2 hours ago and on uNItAB It was paying 18 dollars, now into 11s, i reckon this thing will jump at around 12s and was absoulutely stoked to get on fixed odds at 15/1

Yeah im much the same. Ive narrrowed it down to 9 but this one keeps coming back in my mind. Ill mull it over for another few hours but at 15's he seems the goods. He's absolutely BEGGING for the 2400.