Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - EF vs. West Coast Eagles - OS (Perth), Sat 03/10 @ 8:10pm AEST

[jackcass]

Any media channels actually had us yet? Riewoldt on AFL360 last night, Shuey and Simpson on tonight before Geary.

Oh wait we've got "no chance"

This will be one for the ages.

Happy for all the attention to be elsewhere.

 

[Jen2310]

Happy for all the attention to be elsewhere.

no expectations. good! might be better that way.

 

[Big Bryza]

Going by the 10 news report (in Perth), wc will be at full strength bar Yeo.

Good times. Not.

Good.

All the better when we beat them. Then we'll go via Adelaide and tear Port a new one. Before moving on to the Gabba where we give Richmond a touch up. We seal premiership 16 with a 10 goal win over Geelong.

 

[unplugged]

Happy for all the attention to be elsewhere.

Yes and no. When you're trickle-fed news all year, you expect to be able to soak up the pre-finals buzz with a bit more exposure when you're one of the only 8 teams left in it.

There are the regulars, the expected winners: Richmond, Geelong, WCE, Brisbane.

Then there are the shiny new toys: WBD, St Kilda, Port.

Then there's us, with supposedly no hope. My point is they think we've already lost. We will win this game.

 

[ThePhantom777]

Sidey isn't playing is he?

 

[Thefly38]

This is a game where we need $7 million Brodie Grundy to step up. I know he's carrying an injury and nowhere near his best but we absolutely need him to nullify NN in the ruck and make the most of it when Allen is in the middle.

If there was any a week we need to have a good connection it's this one. We win the midfield battle, we win the game.

Rd 1 CC +10 (52 point win v Dogs)
Rd 2 CC +5 (Draw v Richmond)
Rd 3 CC +6 (44 point win v Saints)
Rd 4 CC +3 (2 point loss v Giants - should've won)
Rd 5 CC -4 (15 point loss v Dons)
Rd 6 CC +5 (32 point win v Hawks)
Rd 7 CC +3 (22 point win v Cats)
Rd 8 CC -3 (66 point loss v WCE)
Rd 9 CC -3 (12 point loss v Freo)
Rd 10 CC -3 (9 point win v Swans)
Rd 11 CC +4 (24 point win v Crows)
Rd 12 CC +1 (56 point loss v Dees)
Rd 13 CC -7 (30 point win v NM)
Rd 14 CC +3 (24 point win v Carlton)
Rd 15 CC + 0 (8 point loss V Lions)
Rd 17 CC -3 (22 point win v GC)
Rd 18 CC -10 (16 point loss v PA)

So effectively we are 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (one by 2 points to GWS) when we win the centre clearance battle (so ideally we should be 7-1).
Wins against WB, Saints, Geelong, a draw with Richmond, and a win over Carlton. All teams around the mark (4 of them playing finals next week).

When we lose the centre clearance count, we are 3-4 but those wins came against Swans, NM and GC (16th, 17th, 14th respectively)
Losses were against Essendon, Freo, WCE and Melbourne. 3 games we would mark down as wins.

Bring the intensity, bring the fire and win the midfield battle and I think we win the game. I don't think we can win the game purely on scores from opposition turnovers or D50 > F50 scores. I think we MUST kick a winning score from stoppage work. Simple as that.

Eagles have bullied us far too often around the footy, even without NN. Yeo isn't playing and he's there enforcer, Redden will also be out. If there's anytime to beat Eagles it's this week. Greenwood to run with Kelly, Adams to go head to head with Shuey and then Pendles and Treloar to face Hutchings and Sheed you'd presume.

Yeah that’s how I’d like it to go and think we can roll them.

 

[yeee_haaaa!!!!!]

Yeah that’s how I’d like it to go and think we can roll them.

agree wholeheartedly.

shuey and hutchings won't be playing, in addition to yeo and redden already ruled out. Big losses for their midfield. our mids need to step up and get it done. they will also be missing kennedy up forward, so their forward half will have a diff look, and mcgovern is no chance of getting up for the game so their back half will also be looking different. 2 of our last 3 games have been pretty strong efforts v the top 2 teams, and we have been slowly building over the last month or so. pies are in this elim final up to their eyeballs

 

[Ingy]

agree wholeheartedly.

shuey and hutchings won't be playing, in addition to yeo and redden already ruled out. Big losses for their midfield. our mids need to step up and get it done. they will also be missing kennedy up forward, so their forward half will have a diff look, and mcgovern is no chance of getting up for the game so their back half will also be looking different. 2 of our last 3 games have been pretty strong efforts v the top 2 teams, and we have been slowly building over the last month or so. pies are in this elim final up to their eyeballs

I think you're being wildly optimistic when it comes to players they will be missing

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

i doubt phillps would go. Still 2-3 weeks away.

Phillips was running last week at training. With the bye, he may well be right to go.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

West Coast will make wholesale changes, probably up to 6. That's fine, but they are treading a fine line as some of these guys returning from injury wouldn't have played any footy for over a month.

 

[stormskye]

West Coast will make wholesale changes, probably up to 6. That's fine, but they are treading a fine line as some of these guys returning from injury wouldn't have played any footy for over a month.

Some of our regular 22 players haven’t played footy for 12months

 

[hellfire]

West Coast will make wholesale changes, probably up to 6. That's fine, but they are treading a fine line as some of these guys returning from injury wouldn't have played any footy for over a month.

Yeah but they're returning against Collingwood. They'll all kick 5, have 30 touches, or 15 intercept marks. Then the following week they'll all fall in a heap.

 

[Rohan25]

West Coast will make wholesale changes, probably up to 6. That's fine, but they are treading a fine line as some of these guys returning from injury wouldn't have played any footy for over a month.

Yep, it’s a massive call to go in with so many who haven’t been playing. Last night on the news they named 5 or 6 senior WC guys who will be returning and said Kennedy would come up as well.
I hope they pick all of them.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Sidey isn't playing is he?

No but maybe Richie Porte is available

 

[unplugged]

At least the main guys who always kill us are within that returning group; Kennedy, McGovern and Shuey. Even Cripps and Redden to a lesser extent. They may be fully fit but if they're at 90% it might go a long way.

Gaff always murders us and likewise Kelly. We need to put time into these guys.

No Yeo is huge as well. Deservedly got AA last year and is another who tackles hard. His game is well suited for finals footy.

 

[neilk]

No but maybe Richie Porte is available

At 172cm and 62kg could line up at FF.

 

[jackcass]

agree wholeheartedly.

shuey and hutchings won't be playing, in addition to yeo and redden already ruled out. Big losses for their midfield. our mids need to step up and get it done. they will also be missing kennedy up forward, so their forward half will have a diff look, and mcgovern is no chance of getting up for the game so their back half will also be looking different. 2 of our last 3 games have been pretty strong efforts v the top 2 teams, and we have been slowly building over the last month or so. pies are in this elim final up to their eyeballs

I think Yeo is the only 1 formally ruled out at this stage and I think without the luxury of a double chance they'll load up with as many of those missing players as they can. Doesn't really matter to me. We'll either beat them on merit or we won't. I'm not overly confident but I doubt I'd be any more confident against any of the other 6 finalists. There's a reason they all made finals.

 

[Horaceg]

Sidey isn't playing is he?

Playing Dad I think

 

[Horaceg]

I think Yeo is the only 1 formally ruled out at this stage and I think without the luxury of a double chance they'll load up with as many of those missing players as they can. Doesn't really matter to me. We'll either beat them on merit or we won't. I'm not overly confident but I doubt I'd be any more confident against any of the other 6 finalists. There's a reason they all made finals.

I barrack to win, spit a few chips when we lose, get over it quickly on move on. Pity there is no next week but I think we will have a genuine crack at WCE and hopefully a sneaky second final for us.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

This is why I don’t think we can win. WCE average 21 points more at Optus even if you take the massive 111 out, they still average 71 points (15 points more than at other stadiums).

We had a fighting chance if this game was anywhere but Optus. Their lowest score at Optus is still a goal over our Average.

 

[Jen2310]

View attachment 969502
This is why I don’t think we can win. WCE average 21 points more at Optus even if you take the massive 111 out, they still average 71 points.

We had a fighting chance if this game was anywhere but at Optus. Their lowest score at Optus is still a goal over our Average.

We're certainly up against it. It's an impossible task, but they'll try their best.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Yes and no. When you're trickle-fed news all year, you expect to be able to soak up the pre-finals buzz with a bit more exposure when you're one of the only 8 teams left in it.

There are the regulars, the expected winners: Richmond, Geelong, WCE, Brisbane.

Then there are the shiny new toys: WBD, St Kilda, Port.

Then there's us, with supposedly no hope. My point is they think we've already lost. We will win this game.

I’m inclined to agree with them. I think we’re looking a lot like Essendon 2009/Essendon 2019

 

[jjsmitty8]

I know as well as the next person that stats can be manipulated to suit whatever argument, but I’ve just had a look at West Coast’s scoring and defending. Make of it what you will.

- When WCE win, they’ve scored 60+ 11 out of 12 times.
- When WCE lose, they’ve conceded 70+ 4 out of 5 times.
- When WCE lose, their average score against is 78 points.

Using these numbers and comparing our scoring and defending stats:
- We’ve kept teams to below 60 points 11 times this year.
- From our 7 losses, the opposition scored 60+ 6 times.
- When we win, we’ve only managed to clear 70 points 3 times.

So for me, the magic number is 60. Our best chance of winning is to keep them below it. Either that, or we go close to putting up our highest score of the year to win.

 

[rand corp]

Of course I hope we rise up and have a win for the ages, but I just can't see it happening sadly.

 

[Mkcaptain]

No matter how good they are, taking potentially 4 underdone players into a final has to be too big a risk? Surely West Coast won't bring all those players back at once.