Unofficial Preview Changes V GWS Semi Final

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martinson said:
Rather we're overrated in terms of what everyone thinks we should be achieving because we're seen as a bit flaky ,inaccurate ,whatever.

I've lost count of the number of scribes that say team list wise we're the the best team. Even the ones like Lloyd who hates us says that.

I don't see the proof of that in front of me. But we've stayed competitive in what to me is a lot harder task than playing Carlton at home in a Prelim and Collingwood in a GF.
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I think you could make a case that we have the most talent on our list out of any team. Neale, Dunkley, Hugh, Harris, Zorko, Cameron, Joe all AA quality. Next rung is as good as anyone with Berry, Wash, Payne, Rayner, Starc, Linc all very good in their own right. Our bottom six is probably Ah Chee, Fletcher, Lester, McKenna, Answerth, Morris. That’s pretty strong.

And we have very good youth with Fletcher, Morris, Kai, Wilmot and a couple of good prospects this year as well. I think they’ve done a great job setting up the list for sustained success BUT what I would say is at times we have looked a bit disjointed as a team and maybe personality wise they haven’t all clicked on field.

I do get the sense we don’t have the chemistry of say Hawthorn or GWS who’s teams seem to compliment their playing styles. It’s almost like we’re trying to cram a whole bunch of different personalities into one team at times
 

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Paynes leg brace in yesterday's photos did not fill me with confidence.

Selection is regularly discussed and seen as important, but this week seems like it is an actual game that could be won or lost on selection.

Payne in, Joyce not sub then Payne injury flares early is the horror scenario.
 
With Bedford back in the side he will go to Neale.
This could reduce Neale's performance. Let's hope not.
Last time Bedford v Neale. Neal still got 24 disposals being the Lions equal 2nd best with Zorko. Ashcroft with 29 the best.
McCluggage had one of his down games with only 15 disposals.
We really need both McCluggage and Ashcroft to have big games in case Neale has a quieter than usual one.
Daniher kicked 2.1 but only had 7 disposals and 2 marks. Expect better disposal numbers this time with Hippy back.
Morris 8 disposals and 1.1 should also benefit with Hippy back

Played last time: Smith, Joyce, Brain & Prior as sub
Playing this time: Hippy, Payne?, Answerth, & McKenna sub maybe

We have a better structure this time around even if Joyce ends up playing.
Giants gain Coniglio and Briggs. There could be more as i just had a quick look.
 
Section 5 said:
With Bedford back in the side he will go to Neale.
This could reduce Neale's performance. Let's hope not.
Last time Bedford v Neale. Neal still got 24 disposals being the Lions equal 2nd best with Zorko. Ashcroft with 29 the best.
McCluggage had one of his down games with only 15 disposals.
We really need both McCluggage and Ashcroft to have big games in case Neale has a quieter than usual one.
Daniher kicked 2.1 but only had 7 disposals and 2 marks. Expect better disposal numbers this time with Hippy back.
Morris 8 disposals and 1.1 should also benefit with Hippy back

Played last time: Smith, Joyce, Brain & Prior as sub
Playing this time: Hippy, Payne?, Answerth, & McKenna sub maybe

We have a better structure this time around even if Joyce ends up playing.
Giants gain Coniglio and Briggs. There could be more as i just had a quick look.
Click to expand...
Hipwood, Payne & Answerth for Smith, Joyce & Brain are actually massive upgrades. No disrespect to the other guys as they played well when given a shot and in the case of Smith & Brain have bright futures but Hippy, Payne & Noah are far more advanced and experienced at AFL level at this stage.

Brain gave up a couple late goals to opposition smalls in those late season losses to GWS & Pies simply due to inexperience and poor positioning. You’d expect Answerth to close those gaps and prevent those sorts of goals 👍
 
Gadzorks said:
Paynes leg brace in yesterday's photos did not fill me with confidence.

Selection is regularly discussed and seen as important, but this week seems like it is an actual game that could be won or lost on selection.

Payne in, Joyce not sub then Payne injury flares early is the horror scenario.
Click to expand...
Was just strapping, given the recency of the injury it'd be strange it he didn't have it tbh. Plenty wear strappng on shoulder etc. And I'm sure they'll have contingencies, but Joyce as sub wouldn't be one I'd want to see.
 
Big difference between running straight lines as compared to a lateral movement
 
Why we win…

GWS are masters of fast ball movement, number one in the league for speed and transition.

We’re number one for clearances and contested possessions.

The key for us will be tapping into collective flow. When we do we’re unstoppable and our goalkicking accuracy is number one in the league.

Flow Drives Our Accuracy:

At our best, our goal accuracy is unmatched, particularly in away games. When we're in flow, we kick with precision, move with unity, and trust each other’s instinct.

Our goal accuracy improves significantly when we’re away—1.21 goals per behind compared to 0.70 in our last 6 games at home.

Why This Ground Suits Us:

Engie Stadium is one of the narrower grounds in the league, it minimises the space available for outside play. While GWS thrives on fast ball movement and spreading the game out, the narrow wings brings the game right into our wheelhouse: the contest. We’re number one in the league for clearances and contested possessions, and on this smaller stage, that advantage is magnified.

Clearances and contested possession lead us to quick transitions into attack, limiting GWS’s ability to spread the game.

How We Win: Contested Possession is Key

Our goal accuracy is directly linked to how well we control the contest. When we dominate the clearances and win the contested possessions, we control the flow of the game. The narrower ground funnels the game into one-on-one battles, where we consistently outmuscle our opponents.

By controlling the contest:

1. We Limit GWS’s Fast Ball Movement: Winning the clearance battle will stop GWS from getting the ball into space, where they thrive on quick transitions. Without fast ball movement, they struggle to score.

2. We Maximize Our Flow: Each contested possession we win will the quicker we move the ball from clearance to attack, the more we reduce the pressure on our forwards.

3. We Are Efficient in Front of Goal: When we’re in flow, our goal-kicking becomes automatic. Just as we’ve done all season away from home, we thrive under pressure.

Stopping GWS: Shutting Down Their Strengths

To win this game, we need to stifle GWS’s speed and efficiency. Here’s how:
1. Pressure at the Source: It all starts by denying GWS clean possession. By applying immediate pressure at stoppages and clearances, we disrupt their ball movement and force turnovers. With the narrow field, GWS will have less room to maneuver, making our pressure even more effective.

2. Control the Middle: The midfield battle will decide this game. Led by Big O, Lachie and Dunks, we ensure that every contest is hard-fought, and every clearance is clean. Quick ball movement from the contest turns GWS’s strength—their ball movement—against them, forcing them into defensive positions before they can set up their structure.

3. Disciplined Defensive Setup: knowing that GWS will try to move the ball quickly when they get possession it’s whole of ground pressure that slows them down, not just Harris, Payne, etc. This forces them to take riskier, slower routes to goal, giving our defenders time to organise.

We win by controlling the contest, dominating clearances, and staying in collective flow. When we turn the game into a battle of physicality and contested possessions, we take away GWS’s biggest weapon—fast ball movement. The narrower ground favours our inside play and in turn our goalkicking accuracy!

Go Lions 🦁
 

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dlanod said:
Ah, my specialty topic!

Depends on your transport - as Clugga mentions, there's One Drop at Botany, and there's Slow Lane around the corner and Beer Fontaine just down the road. All are fantastic options and easily chainable into a mini-crawl, but you'd be looking at an Uber there from the airport and then another to get to a train station to get out to the stadium.

Marrickville and the Inner West is awesome, there's always something new. St Peters through to Marrickville train stations gives you a good dozen or more options - but again, not really on the way.

There's not much on the western line. There's Paddy's near Flemington Station (average, and generally slips well under the radar), Public House Petersham/Small Batch and Oxford Tavern at Petersham (the only stop I bother with), and Akasha at Five Dock (great IPAs, not near a train station). Out at Parramatta you get Riverside but then you've not only overshot, you're also in for quite a walk because the light rail isn't running yet.

The best blend of convenience and decent beer would be either Surry Hills (Royal Albert/Keg and Brew/Dove and Olive/Sydney Brewery) next to Central or duck out to Newtown (Union Hotel, Mountain Goat, Young Henry's, Hopsters, Buddy's Bar, and more). There's also Noble Hops and BrewDog near Redfern.
Click to expand...
Circling back here Dlanod, best advice to get a few beers within walking distance after the game? All i can seem to see is the locker room. My issue is i am staying further west, so ideally wouldn't go back towards the city. but if that's the best method then so be it!
 
twhowler said:
Circling back here Dlanod, best advice to get a few beers within walking distance after the game? All i can seem to see is the locker room. My issue is i am staying further west, so ideally wouldn't go back towards the city. but if that's the best method then so be it!
Click to expand...
Sorry, not laughing at you, more at the absolute desolation of adequate post-event entertainment venues in and around Olympic Park.

I remember one night after an NRL Grand Final we ended up at this hotel in Concord West. We traipsed through some park to get there.

Do not remember the Locker Room - that one might be new and could be the go, because The Brewery is usually closed by the end of the game (which has always seemed very weird to me).

Other than that, the Pullman is just behind there and sometimes they are (a) still serving alcohol and (b) not checking whether you are actually staying there before serving you or (c) susceptible to being bluffed by you telling them you are staying there when you're not. So worth a try.
 
twhowler said:
Circling back here Dlanod, best advice to get a few beers within walking distance after the game? All i can seem to see is the locker room. My issue is i am staying further west, so ideally wouldn't go back towards the city. but if that's the best method then so be it!
Click to expand...
Grasshopper17 said:
Sorry, not laughing at you, more at the absolute desolation of adequate post-event entertainment venues in and around Olympic Park.

I remember one night after an NRL Grand Final we ended up at this hotel in Concord West. We traipsed through some park to get there.

Do not remember the Locker Room - that one might be new and could be the go, because The Brewery is usually closed by the end of the game (which has always seemed very weird to me).

Other than that, the Pullman is just behind there and sometimes they are (a) still serving alcohol and (b) not checking whether you are actually staying there before serving you or (c) susceptible to being bluffed by you telling them you are staying there when you're not. So worth a try.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the Locker Room is new and about the only place open there.

If you're further west, I'd just hop on the train - there's a pub at just about every train stop heading west. Can't speak to quality of any of them but they definitely exist. :D

(Except for Clyde. Don't stop at Clyde.)
 
dlanod said:
Yeah, the Locker Room is new and about the only place open there.

If you're further west, I'd just hop on the train - there's a pub at just about every train stop heading west. Can't speak to quality of any of them but they definitely exist. :D

(Except for Clyde. Don't stop at Clyde.)
Click to expand...
haha thanks not the clyde then!

Locker room not taking bookings so i guess we can try our luck there.

And yes grasshopper it's pretty mindboggling the lack of venues and YET makes sense because the whole concept of buidling sporting stadia way out away from big population centres is outdated!
 
mdtlion said:
Why we win…

GWS are masters of fast ball movement, number one in the league for speed and transition.

We’re number one for clearances and contested possessions.

The key for us will be tapping into collective flow. When we do we’re unstoppable and our goalkicking accuracy is number one in the league.

Flow Drives Our Accuracy:

At our best, our goal accuracy is unmatched, particularly in away games. When we're in flow, we kick with precision, move with unity, and trust each other’s instinct.

Our goal accuracy improves significantly when we’re away—1.21 goals per behind compared to 0.70 in our last 6 games at home.

Why This Ground Suits Us:

Engie Stadium is one of the narrower grounds in the league, it minimises the space available for outside play. While GWS thrives on fast ball movement and spreading the game out, the narrow wings brings the game right into our wheelhouse: the contest. We’re number one in the league for clearances and contested possessions, and on this smaller stage, that advantage is magnified.

Clearances and contested possession lead us to quick transitions into attack, limiting GWS’s ability to spread the game.

How We Win: Contested Possession is Key

Our goal accuracy is directly linked to how well we control the contest. When we dominate the clearances and win the contested possessions, we control the flow of the game. The narrower ground funnels the game into one-on-one battles, where we consistently outmuscle our opponents.

By controlling the contest:

1. We Limit GWS’s Fast Ball Movement: Winning the clearance battle will stop GWS from getting the ball into space, where they thrive on quick transitions. Without fast ball movement, they struggle to score.

2. We Maximize Our Flow: Each contested possession we win will the quicker we move the ball from clearance to attack, the more we reduce the pressure on our forwards.

3. We Are Efficient in Front of Goal: When we’re in flow, our goal-kicking becomes automatic. Just as we’ve done all season away from home, we thrive under pressure.

Stopping GWS: Shutting Down Their Strengths

To win this game, we need to stifle GWS’s speed and efficiency. Here’s how:
1. Pressure at the Source: It all starts by denying GWS clean possession. By applying immediate pressure at stoppages and clearances, we disrupt their ball movement and force turnovers. With the narrow field, GWS will have less room to maneuver, making our pressure even more effective.

2. Control the Middle: The midfield battle will decide this game. Led by Big O, Lachie and Dunks, we ensure that every contest is hard-fought, and every clearance is clean. Quick ball movement from the contest turns GWS’s strength—their ball movement—against them, forcing them into defensive positions before they can set up their structure.

3. Disciplined Defensive Setup: knowing that GWS will try to move the ball quickly when they get possession it’s whole of ground pressure that slows them down, not just Harris, Payne, etc. This forces them to take riskier, slower routes to goal, giving our defenders time to organise.

We win by controlling the contest, dominating clearances, and staying in collective flow. When we turn the game into a battle of physicality and contested possessions, we take away GWS’s biggest weapon—fast ball movement. The narrower ground favours our inside play and in turn our goalkicking accuracy!

Go Lions 🦁
Click to expand...

You should post more often - really enjoyed your analysis and am hoping you are super guru who actually does have all the answers. 😁
 
mdtlion said:
Why we win…

GWS are masters of fast ball movement, number one in the league for speed and transition.

We’re number one for clearances and contested possessions.

The key for us will be tapping into collective flow. When we do we’re unstoppable and our goalkicking accuracy is number one in the league.

Flow Drives Our Accuracy:

At our best, our goal accuracy is unmatched, particularly in away games. When we're in flow, we kick with precision, move with unity, and trust each other’s instinct.

Our goal accuracy improves significantly when we’re away—1.21 goals per behind compared to 0.70 in our last 6 games at home.

Why This Ground Suits Us:

Engie Stadium is one of the narrower grounds in the league, it minimises the space available for outside play. While GWS thrives on fast ball movement and spreading the game out, the narrow wings brings the game right into our wheelhouse: the contest. We’re number one in the league for clearances and contested possessions, and on this smaller stage, that advantage is magnified.

Clearances and contested possession lead us to quick transitions into attack, limiting GWS’s ability to spread the game.

How We Win: Contested Possession is Key

Our goal accuracy is directly linked to how well we control the contest. When we dominate the clearances and win the contested possessions, we control the flow of the game. The narrower ground funnels the game into one-on-one battles, where we consistently outmuscle our opponents.

By controlling the contest:

1. We Limit GWS’s Fast Ball Movement: Winning the clearance battle will stop GWS from getting the ball into space, where they thrive on quick transitions. Without fast ball movement, they struggle to score.

2. We Maximize Our Flow: Each contested possession we win will the quicker we move the ball from clearance to attack, the more we reduce the pressure on our forwards.

3. We Are Efficient in Front of Goal: When we’re in flow, our goal-kicking becomes automatic. Just as we’ve done all season away from home, we thrive under pressure.

Stopping GWS: Shutting Down Their Strengths

To win this game, we need to stifle GWS’s speed and efficiency. Here’s how:
1. Pressure at the Source: It all starts by denying GWS clean possession. By applying immediate pressure at stoppages and clearances, we disrupt their ball movement and force turnovers. With the narrow field, GWS will have less room to maneuver, making our pressure even more effective.

2. Control the Middle: The midfield battle will decide this game. Led by Big O, Lachie and Dunks, we ensure that every contest is hard-fought, and every clearance is clean. Quick ball movement from the contest turns GWS’s strength—their ball movement—against them, forcing them into defensive positions before they can set up their structure.

3. Disciplined Defensive Setup: knowing that GWS will try to move the ball quickly when they get possession it’s whole of ground pressure that slows them down, not just Harris, Payne, etc. This forces them to take riskier, slower routes to goal, giving our defenders time to organise.

We win by controlling the contest, dominating clearances, and staying in collective flow. When we turn the game into a battle of physicality and contested possessions, we take away GWS’s biggest weapon—fast ball movement. The narrower ground favours our inside play and in turn our goalkicking accuracy!

Go Lions 🦁
Click to expand...
Couple of things that stood out to me here

Our accuracy away from home! that's encouraging. I have often thought some of our worst kicking is at the gabba, maybe it's the home ground and groans of the majority crowd? You don't get much of a noise when you miss away from home. The groans and murmuring might set us off mentally?

How narrow homebush is! Gabba listed at 149m. Kardinia park 115m. Engie 128m. I know these often seem to be a bit wrong in actual playing area, but i thought Engie was fairly large, this suggests it's quite narrow. Not sure I quite agree with the call above, i would think it makes it harder to find the space we need to find spare targets and easier to guard grass. Whereas the giants tend to run and gun within a narrow space via handball, and it is their home ground! so they should be okay with it

I think given the above theory, that our gameplan will be harder to implement, we need to win the midfield battle to be able to win the game. Whereas i can imagine the giants being slightly down on midfield but still able to transition well enough from half back.

A few key factors will determine the contest:

The Zorko tag - how good is it? And what do we do if it is working? Wilmot gives good run and might be told to just get off the chain; it will help having Noah there to lock down. Perhaps McKenna is sub as a plan B? If we are really struggling at half time, inject McKenna and just tell him to dash off the half back flank to break things up?

The Neale tag - how good is it? And do others step up? Feel better about this aspect since Aschroft found form. Really in terms of creative mids going well, we can actually afford to have Neale down a bit, as long as Aschcroft and McCluggage have good games. Last year we had 2 creative mids going through the middle, dunks as the main accountable one, plus a bit of a mish-mash going through. This year Ashcroft is back and back in form.

Key forwards - we just need a contest! Taylor and Buckley are very good. Daniher and Hipwood must get on their bikes and get competitive. I thought despite his terrible kicking Hippy got up the ground and got in space last week. More of that please. For Daniher it's competing in the air when he is playing as a deep forward. We have a bevvy of smalls to take advantage of that who all pop up for goals. Morris is the sneaky one - he will easily get the worse tall defender. Took 4 marks inside 50 last week. It might be that we look for him a lot more than we normally would.

Payne v Hogan - let's hope he is fit! If Payne can keep him relatively quiet, and crucially Harris can do his thing, this would be the single biggest difference from last game when Harris started panicking.

Beware Toby... He has been heavily scrutinised in the media, with plenty of mention of his lowest ever possession tally vs Starce last time. He will be desperate to bounce back from that game and last week. I'd still rather the form he is in than hot form, but he can pop up at any time so let's hope Starce can get the job done again.

Oscar... started like a house on fire last time. Ended like a burned down house. Makes sense i guess?? When he got double teamed in last year's grand final it really had a big bearing on the match. Let's hope he is up for a big match. We also need to make the most of Keefe being in their forward line - if Harris plays off him and dominates then it offsets what we lose in having a solo genuine ruck.

The weather? Look we can overstate this. But combined with the narrow ground what worries me is 35kmh winds. Not great for precision kicking, but won't hurt the giants' 5m handballs. And then there is what it will do to our goalkicking... or will it make it hard for them to keep up their usual accuracy and even things up? I feel like we fans often get the specific factors of the weather wrong, but it is set to be quite windy so we'll see if that has an impact.

TLDR
I feel like we are genuinely in this game, what i keep coming back to is the giants have a very good finals record and seem to have a 'brand' very suited to finals, so i am trying to not get my hopes up

of AND the worst possible result is losing this weekend. would not give us any confidence and would still give us a top 6 draw. so please win ")
 
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