List Mgmt. Christmas comes early (Nov 28 - 19 sleeps) - Draftee discussion

[Keys]

Link to draft picks held by each club

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Hahaha, sorry.

I still hold a small flame for Hewett, that Vic Metro game was IMO the best game by any player over the champs. Also, there was a WA u19s vs u17s game last yesr where Hewett went head to head with Johnson and came out even.

It was just the rest of the champs he didn't offer much at all.

I really like Ginbey, just have a few ahead of him. If we took the Poo at 8 and Ginbey at 12, I'd be ecstatic.
Ginbey is your classic, linear growth draftee. He has risen rapidly through the year, he could be that guy with tonnes of development left.

My choices are, with a back up for each:

8: Phillipou, is a star and will be a star.
or hard to know if a slider is here there could well be Clark, Mackenzie or even Tsatas here.
I'd take Poo over all them except Mackenzie, that's a tough decision.

12. Hollands, love his work rate and good footballer.
Back up: Hewett.

20. Keeler, 200cm forward with great skills and moves so well for his size.
Back up: Hotton

26. Clarke, love his pace and dare as a small forward. Can kick goals from nothing.
Back up: Hustwaite, love he's equally good defender as midfielder.

Phillipou would start life as a fwd and pinch hit in midfield, Hollands tank allow him to play midfield straight away.
Keeler key fwd with a bit at ruck in WAFL whilst he develops. Charlie Clarke to fill hole left by Willie and Cripps only a few years left.

Nice outline

Our pairing of mids will be important at 8 and 12. MacKenzie is growing on me as my first choice and would pair well with either Ginbey or Hewett. I would also not be averse to taking Ginbey and Hotton.

I can't see Hotton still on the board at 20 - nice if he is but I would go Weddle as a backup at 20 or even Barnett.

Liking Clarke at 26 as he would almost be playing in 2023 with Rioli out and Petch with dodgy hammies and I would also like Burgiel if we need another mid.

It will be interesting to see how Culley turns up after a full preseason. He had a number of attributes that Phillipou has and they both are very comfortable in the forward line. If we do go Phillipou, I would take a safer option with the other pick (8/12) and like the Hollands pairing.

With St Blunders, Blues and Doggies picking between us at 8 and 12, can we risk doing a Roughead/Buddy and choose the one that we think will slide through?

We then have 5 Sydney/GWS picks the next 7 picks until 20 and are their aspects to Hewett that could see him slide? Sydney lost Dawson but would be feeling confident with Warner, Sheldrick and McDonald so would probably back themself in

Who do you think takes Humphrey? I think he is really hard to pin down in the order.

Busslinger is also difficult - Joel loves him and Geelong need a KDP and have ample young mids, similarly case with the Suns.

I have Saints being keen on Jefferson because I think they need him not that I think he is the 10th best prospect.

 

[jesterwester]

I think whoever we end up with at 8 & 12 will be fine. We’ll still have good options to chose from and it might surprise who is still on the board at our picks. Still a bit to run before the draft.

Our picks in the 20’s should also see some decent value as well.

Brayden George is one that might end up being there at 20 and although he might not play much next year is a first round talent. I’d hope Hotton gets there but that seems unlikely.

Darcy Jones might have just seen his stocks rise a fair bit with his combine testing. Could see him as a Cripps replacement if not on a wing and I would love him at WC.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

I would consider offering Gold Coast a future R4 for their pick 45. With tight list spots at the Suns, 45 will likely no be used. After the bids for Ashcroft, Fletcher and Davey jnr, 4 it will likely be a pick in the late 30's. I would then target a ruck in Foster or Broadbent or a small forward like Jones (convert him) or a running back in Gilbey (subject to medical on leg) etc. I expect there will be value and get ahead of the rookie draft - get a project that will be more than 12 months hence warrant the 2 year contract. If it is Gilbey, place him immediately on LTI and then go get another rookie.

This is most likely to be done on draft night. Our future R4 is likely be nearing 60 hence a decent discount.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

I would consider offering Gold Coast a future R4 for their pick 45. With tight list spots at the Suns, 45 will likely no be used. After the bids for Ashcroft, Fletcher and Davey jnr, 4 it will likely be a pick in the late 30's. I would then target a ruck in Foster or Broadbent or a small forward like Jones (convert him) or a running back in Gilbey (subject to medical on leg) etc. I expect there will be value and get ahead of the rookie draft - get a project that will be more than 12 months hence warrant the 2 year contract. If it is Gilbey, place him immediately on LTI and then go get another rookie.

This is most likely to be done on draft night. Our future R4 is likely be nearing 60 hence a decent discount.

Think this has alot of merit, where would this leave us for list spots? What sort of scope do we have for the rookie draft and would we have to rely on LTI/early retirement for the MSD?

 

[shooshka]

I would consider offering Gold Coast a future R4 for their pick 45. With tight list spots at the Suns, 45 will likely no be used. After the bids for Ashcroft, Fletcher and Davey jnr, 4 it will likely be a pick in the late 30's. I would then target a ruck in Foster or Broadbent or a small forward like Jones (convert him) or a running back in Gilbey (subject to medical on leg) etc. I expect there will be value and get ahead of the rookie draft - get a project that will be more than 12 months hence warrant the 2 year contract. If it is Gilbey, place him immediately on LTI and then go get another rookie.

This is most likely to be done on draft night. Our future R4 is likely be nearing 60 hence a decent discount.

I also wonder how many picks GWS are going to take.

They hold 1, 15, 18, 19, 31 (57 + 61 also... but this year late picks almost seem to have negative value!).

I'm assuming 19 gets shopped to the highest bidder on draft night #2.

I can definitely see some draft night/s movement on picks between 7/8-25. There has to be at least a small chance we talk to Carlton about our pick 8 dropping to 10 (they have been very forthright about wanting to move up) - assuming by that stage we have zeroed in on a player and if they are still there at 10 then why not!

 

[PremiershipNo4]

I’m so rapt to have the picks we do in the upcoming draft, I live in Broome so I’ve never seen any of these kids live, so I’ll happily put my faith in the recruiters, we never ever have gone down the path of only recruiting WA talent, so I’m almost 100% that won’t happen this time.
I will say though that I think, there’s a very talented WA group of 7-8 players.
So exciting to have another group of young talented players on the way, extra draft picks next year too.

 

[MaxHunt]

I also wonder how many picks GWS are going to take.

They hold 1, 15, 18, 19, 31 (57 + 61 also... but this year late picks almost seem to have negative value!).

I'm assuming 19 gets shopped to the highest bidder on draft night #2.

I can definitely see some draft night/s movement on picks between 7/8-25. There has to be at least a small chance we talk to Carlton about our pick 8 dropping to 10 (they have been very forthright about wanting to move up) - assuming by that stage we have zeroed in on a player and if they are still there at 10 then why not!

Would that be if McKenzie is there for the saints at 9?

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Nice outline

Our pairing of mids will be important at 8 and 12. MacKenzie is growing on me as my first choice and would pair well with either Ginbey or Hewett. I would also not be averse to taking Ginbey and Hotton.

I can't see Hotton still on the board at 20 - nice if he is but I would go Weddle as a backup at 20 or even Barnett.

Liking Clarke at 26 as he would almost be playing in 2023 with Rioli out and Petch with dodgy hammies and I would also like Burgiel if we need another mid.

It will be interesting to see how Culley turns up after a full preseason. He had a number of attributes that Phillipou has and they both are very comfortable in the forward line. If we do go Phillipou, I would take a safer option with the other pick (8/12) and like the Hollands pairing.

With St Blunders, Blues and Doggies picking between us at 8 and 12, can we risk doing a Roughead/Buddy and choose the one that we think will slide through?

We then have 5 Sydney/GWS picks the next 7 picks until 20 and are their aspects to Hewett that could see him slide? Sydney lost Dawson but would be feeling confident with Warner, Sheldrick and McDonald so would probably back themself in

Who do you think takes Humphrey? I think he is really hard to pin down in the order.

Busslinger is also difficult - Joel loves him and Geelong need a KDP and have ample young mids, similarly case with the Suns.

I have Saints being keen on Jefferson because I think they need him not that I think he is the 10th best prospect.

I'm not big on taking Humphries, admittedly I've seen him less than some other draftees but still enough to form an opinion a good opinion on him.
I have two main worries, his tank and his kicking. Pretty much in every game I've seen him play he is stationed at full forward ala Dusty Martin as the tough match up and power mid/fwd that can turn a game - and rarely seen him play midfield minutes. So I question his tank to play long periods in the midfield, and his kicking can be iffy. The rest of his game is great though.
I think he goes in the 3 picks after our first, all Saints, Blues and Dogs he'd be perfect fit and start his life forward as all need a good forward.

 

[Keys]

I also wonder how many picks GWS are going to take.

They hold 1, 15, 18, 19, 31 (57 + 61 also... but this year late picks almost seem to have negative value!).

I'm assuming 19 gets shopped to the highest bidder on draft night #2.

I can definitely see some draft night/s movement on picks between 7/8-25. There has to be at least a small chance we talk to Carlton about our pick 8 dropping to 10 (they have been very forthright about wanting to move up) - assuming by that stage we have zeroed in on a player and if they are still there at 10 then why not!

They’ve traded out
Hill
Taranto
Hipper
Bruhn
And delisted at least 3 others including Brander, I can’t remember the names of the other 2 so I think they could easily use the first 5 picks

 

[Monocle]

I'm not big on taking Humphries, admittedly I've seen him less than some other draftees but still enough to form an opinion a good opinion on him.
I have two main worries, his tank and his kicking. Pretty much in every game I've seen him play he is stationed at full forward ala Dusty Martin as the tough match up and power mid/fwd that can turn a game - and rarely seen him play midfield minutes. So I question his tank to play long periods in the midfield, and his kicking can be iffy. The rest of his game is great though.
I think he goes in the 3 picks after our first, all Saints, Blues and Dogs he'd be perfect fit and start his life forward as all need a good forward.

I too have concerns with Humphrey, he kicking is very average at best and whilst the hustle and bustle, the reading of the play and his marking are impressive, for me the drawback of the substandard kicking, has me putting the highlighter pen through the name to eliminate from my "want list".

 

[flamingEMBERS]

He probably could, but he’s the perfect modern CHB so I don’t think that’s wise personally

Aaron Naughton successfully converted

 

[ziad]

They’ve traded out
Hill
Taranto
Hipper
Bruhn
And delisted at least 3 others including Brander, I can’t remember the names of the other 2 so I think they could easily use the first 5 picks

5 in 1-31 is very good. They will miss Brander and his two mates. They have a strong foundation. I am on their mailing list and must say they are far more impressive than WC in their overall management. A very tough market though but they are established and growing.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Allen sounds a good prospect, but is he similar to Sharpe from GC as strictly outside?

 

[DanWCE]

I would consider offering Gold Coast a future R4 for their pick 45. With tight list spots at the Suns, 45 will likely no be used. After the bids for Ashcroft, Fletcher and Davey jnr, 4 it will likely be a pick in the late 30's. I would then target a ruck in Foster or Broadbent or a small forward like Jones (convert him) or a running back in Gilbey (subject to medical on leg) etc. I expect there will be value and get ahead of the rookie draft - get a project that will be more than 12 months hence warrant the 2 year contract. If it is Gilbey, place him immediately on LTI and then go get another rookie.

This is most likely to be done on draft night. Our future R4 is likely be nearing 60 hence a decent discount.

Jones might be shooting up boards quite a bit to be there in the late 30s but I do suspect we will make a move to try and land Broadbent. Can't see us leaving local talent like that on the board with growing injuries that they would expect to dissipate. Bit of a free hit.

 

[CountryLad]

I too have concerns with Humphrey, he kicking is very average at best and whilst the hustle and bustle, the reading of the play and his marking are impressive, for me the drawback of the substandard kicking, has me putting the highlighter pen through the name to eliminate from my "want list".

Agree

He can also lack a little bit of composure/decision making in important moments in some of the games I’ve watched.
If his kicking particularly at goal was above average he would be top 5 easy.

 

[shooshka]

Would that be if McKenzie is there for the saints at 9?

That's a chance too. I think Carlton are very keen on a player or players (but they might be gone before our pick). They have noted their desire to trade up.

Removing Ashcroft - it can be assumed that Cadman, Sheezel and Wardlaw are gone. Tsatsas almost certainly too. Clark to Geelong at 7.

That is where it gets interesting - who do Gold Coast take at 5, and what does the other of Hawthorn/Essendon do (unless North do something crazy I think it can safely be assumed they take Wardlaw and likely Sheezel - if not then Tsatsas. Bombers probably take the other one. So who do the Hawks target?)

 

[RookiePick]

Bit negative.

Maybe. but hasn't he only played a handful of games since 16's? It's hardly promising.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

I imagine that, once the Bowes trade wraps up and the Lobb trade falls apart, there'll be no more first-round picks traded in and out. So I thought I'd have a crack at a first-round Phantom Draft:

Pick 1. Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions)
Pick 2. Aaron Cadman (GWS Giants)
Pick 3. George Wardlaw (North Melbourne)
Pick 4. Elijah Tsatas (North Melbourne)
Pick 5. Harry Sheezel (Essendon)
Pick 6. Oliver Hollands (Gold Coast)
Pick 7. Cam Mackenzie (Hawthorn)
Pick 8. Jhye Clark (Geelong)
Pick 9. Reuben Ginbey (West Coast)
Pick 10. Jedd Busslinger (St Kilda)
Pick 11. Bailey Humphrey (Carlton)
Pick 12. Mattaes Phillipou (Western Bulldogs)
Pick 13. Elijah Hewett (West Coast)
Pick 14. Matthew Jefferson (Melbourne)
Pick 15. Alwyn Davey Jr (Essendon)
Pick 16. Olli Hotton (Sydney Swans)
Pick 17. Max Gruzewski (GWS Giants)
Pick 18. Brayden George (Collingwood)
Pick 19. Henry Hustwaite (Sydney Swans)
Pick 20. Jacob Konstanty (GWS Giants)

Youve missed Jasper Fletcher father son for lions. He will get bid on in the teens. Gun.

 

[mad_eagle]

Interesting listening to a little chat on twitter from the Nest podcast (Drew Jones & Daniel Garb) a short time ago. Had Ben Waterworth from Fox on to chat draft strategy, nothing groundbreaking and sounded very similar to a lot of thoughts thrown around in here.

He confirmed a lot of chat inside AFL circles about all the top rated Vic Metro boys wanting nothing to do with moving away from Melbourne, all interstate teams seriously considering avoiding them. Reckons West Coast have gravitated towards Ginbey since his performance in national championships, so much so they would have stuck fat with him at pick 2. He has Ginbey rated "around the top 10", so doesn't sound like a terrible reach at pick 9.

All going well on draft night, Ginbey & Hewett will be the picks. Have to consider Busslinger if he's available, but we're fairly well set in defence & mids should absolutely be the priority.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Half back flankers with midfield potential?

We have an all australian half back flanker in Yeo. He need to go back and simmo only use him in the midfield occasionally. His chronic injuries started when he got more mid time.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Let him go we can get him in 2-4 years time when he’s homesick.

yeh great list management. !!! give up 2 for 8 and 13, miss the kid you want bc another team snatches him up. 2 yrs later pay 2 first rounders to get him back FFS. this is why giving up 2 was a terrible decision. it will only work if another team doesnt pick WA talent

 

[FKASC]

We have an all australian half back flanker in Yeo. He need to go back and simmo only use him in the midfield occasionally. His chronic injuries started when he got more mid time.

Agree

 

[CountryLad]

yeh great list management. !!! give up 2 for 8 and 13, miss the kid you want bc another team snatches him up. 2 yrs later pay 2 first rounders to get him back FFS. this is why giving up 2 was a terrible decision. it will only work if another team doesnt pick WA talent

Don’t get ya knickers in a knot…. We probably will get Ginbey at 8 and if we don’t there is plenty of other kids worthy of the pick that will be there.

Pieman and Trev have this under control

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Don’t get ya knickers in a knot…. We probably will get Ginbey at 8 and if we don’t there is plenty of other kids worthy of the pick that will be there.

Pieman and Trev have this under control

If we rate him on our draft board as the highest WA talent, but we would be happy to let him go to an earlier pick bc there's "plenty of other talent".....that we didnt rate as high. Just stop. You havent a clue

 

[FKASC]

The most likely thing Chesser turns into is a failed first round pick who's body wouldn't let them get on the park.