Politics Climate Change Paradox (cont in part 2)

[skipper kelly]

Cyclones up north

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Lemme guess, Gender Studies at Swinburne Tech?

Beats open universities australia

 

[Snake_Baker]

Cyclones up north

There's been reports of short term predictions of big rains arriving in Northern & Central Australia, effectively ending any new fires in the regions.

 

[Chief]

You are the techo propeller head!. Couldn't they track mobile phones last year?
Has ASIO and Fed Police set up a brand new satellite bushfire arsonist watch system?

Were there even aggregate 200 bad bushfires last year?

I know that a lot more school kids have gone on strike, and been whipped into a hysterical frenzy about not enough being done about climate change.

However , regardless of whether AGW ( aka CC) is real, there is nothing Australia can do to change global or local climate next year, or even in the next decade. Absolutely nothing!

Maybe if army reserve can be called in after the problem, it can be mobilised year round to keep the fuel loads down.
Maybe train all appropriate aged 'work for the dolers' too !?

I've showed a teaspoon from a bucket of possibilities. I'm not saying that IS what has happened, I'm saying there are a large number of things that COULD be happening to increase the number. As such it would be premature to say that it's solely to do with arsonists, or that there are actually more arsonists.

I don't know. And when we don't know, we shouldn't throw out the entire scientific method, existing evidence, and common sense.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

'Vast majority of these bushfires have been started by lightening; less than 1 in 7 have resulted from arson.'

How can anyone say this conclusively, before the investigation has even started, let alone been completed?

An American scientist Im sure has access to all the investigative material being gathered by various Australian police forces.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I've showed a teaspoon from a bucket of possibilities. I'm not saying that IS what has happened, I'm saying there are a large number of things that COULD be happening to increase the number. As such it would be premature to say that it's solely to do with arsonists, or that there are actually more arsonists.

I don't know. And when we don't know, we shouldn't throw out the entire scientific method, existing evidence, and common sense.

You could end up making a bloody good scientist yet.

 

[Snake_Baker]

View attachment 803301

There's a lot of "allegedly" here, because arson is a difficult charge to prove (I think there's something like 7 elements required under Vic law).

However, forensic sciensts are pretty good at determining whether a fire was lit by direct human action or not, so focusing on legal outcomes is the flawed way to analyze this. Go to the good forensic data.

 

[Chief]

You could end up making a bloody good scientist yet.

Straight A's in high school science, baby.

Except chemistry...

 

[Deliverance]

Cyclones up north

So who do we blame when cyclones become more potent? The BOM, arsonists, The Greens solar activity or Scomo "how good is the fact that there's always been cyclones?"

 

[Snake_Baker]

Straight A's in high school science, baby.

The impressive thing for me is that you are thinking in a measured manner which is a fundamental requisite of a scientist, and often the biggest hurdle for scientific novices to overcome.

Except chemistry...

Chem can be tough when you get past the basics. No doubt about it. The trick is to just believe what you are taught in the initial phases, which can run contra to typical rational thinking. Once you get past this state, the curtain opens and the ballet of the molecules jumps out of the structures. It really is an epiphany.

Take someone like Werewolf, who is as highly educated scientifically as anyone around here (PhD in physics, apologies if this embarrasses you Wolf). When someone like this sees the math & corresponding factors, they are seeing the processes unfolding in their minds. It's a whole different level of thinking, and it's definitely not easy to arrive there.

Now climate science, **** me, that's like swan lake on acid. I highly doubt there's a person on this planet who is on top of the entire set of processes involved, much less how they all interact together to make some type of worthy conclusion. It's mind boggling stuff for highly trained professionals, much less someone who has **** all training and research behind them. The people who should be ignored are those that are certain about it.

 

[Chief]

View attachment 803301

So the "200" isn't arsonists, as we could see from the list posted earlier.

It's 180 people, 205 alleged offences, and only 24 are allegedly arsonists.

 

[Snake_Baker]

So who do we blame when cyclones become more potent? The BOM, arsonists, The Greens solar activity or Scomo "how good is the fact that there's always been cyclones?"

Here's the source for "blame":

 

[Chief]

The impressive thing for me is that you are thinking in a measured manner which is a fundamental requisite of a scientist, and often the biggest hurdle for scientific novices to overcome.

It's not that hard is it?

Chem can be tough when you get past the basics. No doubt about it. The trick is to just believe what you are taught in the initial phases, which can run contra to typical rational thinking. Once you get past this state, the curtain opens and the ballet of the molecules jumps out of the structures. It really is an epiphany.

All that is nothing at 16/17/18 and more interested in the girl that sits behind you in Chem, or making up stupid stories with two other friends in the class. That way lies the C+

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

So the "200" isn't arsonists, as we could see from the list posted earlier.

It's 180 people, 205 alleged offences, and only 24 are allegedly arsonists.

Yep, but it’s too late for facts now because every fool with a social media account is running for around telling whoever will that that the fires in Australia were started by 200+ Arsons.

 

[Snake_Baker]

It's not that hard is it?

Ha!

Have you looked around here lately?

All that is nothing at 16/17/18 and more interested in the girl that sits behind you in Chem, or making up stupid stories with two other friends in the class. That way lies the C+

Biology always wins out.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[its free real estate]

i got an HD in my second year Fourier analysis class at Uni, do I have a science brain? Only a D in thermal energy systems though, probably a dummy who didn’t study the Reynolds Number hard enough.

 

[Fadge]

Yep, but it’s too late for facts now because every fool with a social media account is running for around telling whoever will that that the fires in Australia were started by 200+ Arsons.

'Only' 24 arsonists?

Suggest that number is a lot higher than is required to at least cast some doubt on the hysterics running around saying the world is going to end imminently because Climate Change.

 

[Snake_Baker]

i got an HD in my second year Fourier analysis class at Uni, do I have a science brain?

Contrary to belief, science is not a noun.

 

[Snake_Baker]

'Only' 24 arsonists?

Suggest that number is a lot higher than is required to at least cast some doubt on the hysterics running around saying the world is going to end imminently because Climate Change.

I'd be amazed if they had a single one yet.

 

[Fadge]

More than 1/3 categorised under 'miscellaneous/other'.

Seems like a successful analysis to me...

 

[its free real estate]

Contrary to belief, science is not a noun.

I think you mean adjective.

 

[HairyO]

Yep, but it’s too late for facts now because every fool with a social media account is running for around telling whoever will that that the fires in Australia were started by 200+ Arsons.

Which may actually be true. Im sure there are still many investigations going on still.

 

[HairyO]

More than 1/3 categorised under 'miscellaneous/other'.

Seems like a successful analysis to me...

So around 10% are nature, 90% are somewhat human related.

 

[skipper kelly]

So who do we blame when cyclones become more potent?

Whoever or whatever you want to blame.