List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion

[Jen2310]

And thats on the basis that Daicos gets bid first, and that would be on whom will hold pick 2.

 

[RobJD]

figured we might make a play for that pick. only possible if daicos is bid on before darcy so maybe giants have told us they're gonna.

deal would be done in 2 parts, something like-
first pies trade picks 36,38+40 for dogs pick 44,45,52 and future 3rd. then after daicos is bid on we trade all 3 future 3rds for pick 23.

Not sure about the points impact, reckon there'll need to be a 3rd party involved as we won't be able to trade the Doggies F3 back to them.

 

[SchuPie]

would have to be pre, otherwise that pick will be used us for a Sam Darcy bid.

I thought it would be after we matched for ND
Trade back in - so post bid but also post match

edit: apologies if that’s what you meant

 

[Jen2310]

I thought it would be after we matched for ND
Trade back in - so post bid but also post match

yeah, would have to be on the consensus that Daicos gets bid first. then its possible

 

[SchuPie]

yeah, would have to be on the consensus that Daicos gets bid first. then its possible

Interesting - wonder who we’re targeting?

also wonder how much it would cost to get back in

plus I wonder if we have several players in mind - if it’s one and he’s gone, I guess we walk away from potential trade

Either way - good to see the clubs seemed to be working together after the specifics of the Treloar trade ($$ etc)

 

[Jen2310]

Interesting - wonder who we’re targeting?

also wonder how much it would cost to get back in

plus I wonder if we have several players in mind - if it’s one and he’s gone, I guess we walk away from potential trade

Either way - good to see the clubs seemed to be working together after the specifics of the Treloar trade ($$ etc)

Sounds very player specific. Otherwise could wait til our next pick post bid and pick who is available.

 

[Mick F]

It would have to be pre Darcy but post Daicos bid.

Which puts Daicos at pick 2. We aren’t going to have points to trade for 23.

 

[partypie]

figured we might make a play for that pick. only possible if daicos is bid on before darcy so maybe giants have told us they're gonna.

deal would be done in 2 parts, something like-
first pies trade picks 36,38+40 for dogs pick 44,45,52 and future 3rd. then after daicos is bid on we trade all 3 future 3rds for pick 23.

This isn't going to happen.

GWS have come out and said they're more likely to go the other way - bid on Darcy first. Might not even get a bid on Daicos out of them at all, given they were gifted with our (eventual) pick 2.

The trade itself also makes no sense, as it would leave us 272 points short of matching a bid on Daicos at pick 2.

You also wouldn't trade 3 x 3rd round picks for pick 23 just to help the Doggies avoid using it on the bid match in a live trade.

 

[jonbe54]

Interesting - wonder who we’re targeting?

also wonder how much it would cost to get back in

plus I wonder if we have several players in mind - if it’s one and he’s gone, I guess we walk away from potential trade

Either way - good to see the clubs seemed to be working together after the specifics of the Treloar trade ($$ etc)

I think the multiple targets is a possible scenario - after all we are deficient in quality depth in a number of areas.

 

[SchuPie]

I think the multiple targets is a possible scenario - after all we are deficient in quality depth in a number of areas.

Wonder what the price might be from our 2022 picks?

 

[jonbe54]

Wonder what the price might be from our 2022 picks?

We know we have 3 X 3rd rounds so we could use at least 2 which might go close to netting us a 2nd with a sweetener thrown in.

 

[Pie eyed]

Hearing from media Sources
De Goey De Goey De Gone

could be a blessing
Attitude get you no where on the Field

Could be a tall story too.

 

[Masked Magician]

Could we make a play on 23 Pre Draft/Pre Bids and use 23 to then get into the earlyish 2nd round of 2022?

 

[Prochard123]

Which puts Daicos at pick 2. We aren’t going to have points to trade for 23.

Well no, and let me explain to you why.

Pick 2 = 2517 points, with discount = 2013.6

Without pick 36 and 38, we have 1269 points. But losing them also unlocks room for another 2 picks to contribute points, adding to the total of 6 draft picks as per Hine's interview.

Using the ladder position from this year, Hawthorn's future 3rd is roughly pick 41, Richmond's future 3rd is roughly pick 43 (which will be close to North's pick 42 this year). If we can convert our 2 future 3rds into equivalent picks this year, 40, (41/Hawthorn future 3rd), (42/Richmond future 3rd), 46, 48, 55 adds up to 2059 points, which is JUST ENOUGH TO MATCH DAICOS AT PICK 2. Worst case scenario we give up another future 3rd (brisbane) to make the deal more achievable.

In practise, how this would work is the following:

(1) Pick 36, Pick 38, future 3rd to Adelaide for future 2nd (pick 22 using current ladder position, WBD supporters seem very happy with this return)
(2) Hawthorn future 3rd for pick 41 (Brisbane, they would love this trade to match Daicos)
(3) Richmond future 3rd for pick 42 (North Melbourne, another ideal fit as they are only taking 3 picks to the draft, so either 42 or 47 is redundant anyways)
(4) Use 40, 41, 42, 46, 48, 55 to match Daicos
(5) Trade Adelaide future 2nd to WBD for pick 23, which is then used in the live draft.

This seems to align with all the trade rumours/interviews/intel we have received across multiple sources too.

Thoughts Knightmare ?

 

[Knightmare]

Well no, and let me explain to you why.

Pick 2 = 2517 points, with discount = 2013.6

Without pick 36 and 38, we have 1269 points. But losing them also unlocks room for another 2 picks to contribute points, adding to the total of 6 draft picks as per Hine's interview.

Using the ladder position from this year, Hawthorn's future 3rd is roughly pick 41, Richmond's future 3rd is roughly pick 43 (which will be close to North's pick 42 this year). If we can convert our 2 future 3rds into equivalent picks this year, 40, (41/Hawthorn future 3rd), (42/Richmond future 3rd), 46, 48, 55 adds up to 2059 points, which is JUST ENOUGH TO MATCH DAICOS AT PICK 2. Worst case scenario we give up another future 3rd (brisbane) to make the deal more achievable.

In practise, how this would work is the following:

(1) Pick 36, Pick 38, future 3rd to Adelaide for future 2nd (pick 22 using current ladder position, WBD supporters seem very happy with this return)
(2) Hawthorn future 3rd for pick 41 (Brisbane, they would love this trade to match Daicos)
(3) Richmond future 3rd for pick 42 (North Melbourne, another ideal fit as they are only taking 3 picks to the draft, so either 42 or 47 is redundant anyways)
(4) Use 40, 41, 42, 46, 48, 55 to match Daicos
(5) Trade Adelaide future 2nd to WBD for pick 23, which is then used in the live draft.

This seems to align with all the trade rumours/interviews/intel we have received across multiple sources too.

Thoughts Knightmare ?

GWS may bid on Darcy at 2.

And frankly, with GWS seeking talls, I wouldn't be surprised if they move back from pick 2.

The general tip for Collingwood is being prepared for either scenario and keep close tabs on what GWS have in mind. Whether they're bidding/passing on Daicos, or whether there is a chance they could move their pick down to another club, and in which case who so the Pies know to have the points available to match a bid of 2 if required.

Pick swaps would come down to whether those other clubs can get better offers. As for having enough points, Pies will have enough points and no doubt will explore a trade back into the 2022 draft, and may if they have a target, consider moving back into this year's draft at a point where the value is strong (without moving the 2022 1st of course as no doubt Collingwood have learnt from last year's mistake!).

 

[Mick F]

GWS may bid on Darcy at 2.

And frankly, with GWS seeking talls, I wouldn't be surprised if they move back from pick 2.

The general tip for Collingwood is being prepared for either scenario and keep close tabs on what GWS have in mind. Whether they're bidding/passing on Daicos, or whether there is a chance they could move their pick down to another club, and in which case who so the Pies know to have the points available to match a bid of 2 if required.

Pick swaps would come down to whether those other clubs can get better offers. As for having enough points, Pies will have enough points and no doubt will explore a trade back into the 2022 draft, and may if they have a target, consider moving back into this year's draft at a point where the value is strong (without moving the 2022 1st of course as no doubt Collingwood have learnt from last year's mistake!).

So we are about 620 points short, prior to raiding next year’s draft picks.

Would we still retain selections in the first two rounds in 2023?

 

[Knightmare]

So we are about 620 points short, prior to raiding next year’s draft picks.

Would we still retain selections in the first two rounds in 2023?

Collingwood aren't short at all.

Picks 36+38+40+46+48+55+58+78+79 = 2406 if my quick maths is correct.

Even in the scenario pick 2 is bid on Daicos (it might be 3/4), but let's say it's 2.

Pick 2 is 2517 points. With father-son's, that's a 20% discount.
So 2517x0.8=2013.6

Given this, Collingwood are absolutely fine with their current draft hand to match bids on Daicos. If a bid comes later than 2/if Darcy is bid on by the Giants before Daicos, Collingwood will likely move some combination of those picks for 2022 picks. And then if they desire, can trade back into this year's draft if they have a target in mind at a particular selection.

Collingwood have played the pick situation soundly this year to reassure any who are concerned, and will have the flexibility to make moves any way they desire as my calculations hopefully demonstrate. There will be no need for a points deficit or moving the 2022 1st round pick. That will other than matching bids on Daicos no doubt be Collingwood's top of mind priority and the situation they will be prioritising/tracking most closely, above any talent they will be considering with any other picks they may utilise later on in this draft.

 

[Kramer]

This isn't going to happen.

GWS have come out and said they're more likely to go the other way - bid on Darcy first. Might not even get a bid on Daicos out of them at all, given they were gifted with our (eventual) pick 2.

The trade itself also makes no sense, as it would leave us 272 points short of matching a bid on Daicos at pick 2.

You also wouldn't trade 3 x 3rd round picks for pick 23 just to help the Doggies avoid using it on the bid match in a live trade.

if we free up an extra list spot the above would give us 1965 points which is a deficit of only 49 points which wouldnt even knock our 2022 first back a spot. Deal would be done in 2 parts, net loss is 2 future thirds plus excess points this year. win-win for both team but doggies may well get a better offer.

 

[manicmagpie]

if we free up an extra list spot the above would give us 1965 points which is a deficit of only 49 points which wouldnt even knock our 2022 first back a spot.

Any deficit would knock our first pick next year down a spot, unfortunately.

 

[RobJD]

Well no, and let me explain to you why.

Pick 2 = 2517 points, with discount = 2013.6

Without pick 36 and 38, we have 1269 points. But losing them also unlocks room for another 2 picks to contribute points, adding to the total of 6 draft picks as per Hine's interview.

Using the ladder position from this year, Hawthorn's future 3rd is roughly pick 41, Richmond's future 3rd is roughly pick 43 (which will be close to North's pick 42 this year). If we can convert our 2 future 3rds into equivalent picks this year, 40, (41/Hawthorn future 3rd), (42/Richmond future 3rd), 46, 48, 55 adds up to 2059 points, which is JUST ENOUGH TO MATCH DAICOS AT PICK 2. Worst case scenario we give up another future 3rd (brisbane) to make the deal more achievable.

In practise, how this would work is the following:

(1) Pick 36, Pick 38, future 3rd to Adelaide for future 2nd (pick 22 using current ladder position, WBD supporters seem very happy with this return)
(2) Hawthorn future 3rd for pick 41 (Brisbane, they would love this trade to match Daicos)
(3) Richmond future 3rd for pick 42 (North Melbourne, another ideal fit as they are only taking 3 picks to the draft, so either 42 or 47 is redundant anyways)
(4) Use 40, 41, 42, 46, 48, 55 to match Daicos
(5) Trade Adelaide future 2nd to WBD for pick 23, which is then used in the live draft.

This seems to align with all the trade rumours/interviews/intel we have received across multiple sources too.

Thoughts Knightmare ?

I would have thought the Doggies would want more for P23 as they'll need some additional 2021 pick/points to cover for a pick for Darcy at 3

 

[Prochard123]

I would have thought the Doggies would want more for P23 as they'll need some additional 2021 pick/points to cover for a pick for Darcy at 3

WBD supporters are very happy with future 2nd from Adelaide since as it stands they get nothing from pick 23 atm, 0.

 

[Kramer]

Any deficit would knock our first pick next year down a spot, unfortunately.

why is that? unless we finish top 4 the points difference is more than 50 so why would our pick get knocked back?

 

[Lings of Geelong]

WBD supporters are very happy with future 2nd from Adelaide since as it stands they get nothing from pick 23 atm, 0.

Yeah but isn't the point that without 23, the Doggies would only have 43, 44, 45, 52 (1333 points), which won't be enough to match a bid for Darcy?

I like the idea of getting Brisbane's 41 for a F3 - they don't have many vacant list spots this year but have F/S and/or academy bids to match next year. Adding 41 to our picks gives us 8 points carrying picks (can only use 6) - 36, 38, 40, 41, 46, 48, 55, 58 for 2818 points.

The first 6 points carry 2441, so an extremely unlikely Daicos bid at 1 is covered.

If Daicos slips to 2, we'd have scope to trade out 36 + 48 and still have enough points to match.

If Daicos slips to 3, we'd have scope to trade out 36 + 38 and still have enough points to match.

Personally, I heard what Cal Twomey said about us being interested but I can't see the play on 23. But the F3's we've currently got and whatever we get for 36 + 38/48 above should give us plenty of scope to get back into this year's draft elsewhere.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I would have thought the Doggies would want more for P23 as they'll need some additional 2021 pick/points to cover for a pick for Darcy at 3

Unfortunately for them they're not in a position to dictate too much. They don't facilitate a trade then the pick gets absorbed in matching a bid on Darcy. They'll therefore do a trade you'd imagine. The question is with who.

 

[sr36]

Yeah but isn't the point that without 23, the Doggies would only have 43, 44, 45, 52 (1333 points), which won't be enough to match a bid for Darcy?

I like the idea of getting Brisbane's 41 for a F3 - they don't have many vacant list spots this year but have F/S and/or academy bids to match next year. Adding 41 to our picks gives us 8 points carrying picks (can only use 6) - 36, 38, 40, 41, 46, 48, 55, 58 for 2818 points.

The first 6 points carry 2441, so an extremely unlikely Daicos bid at 1 is covered.

If Daicos slips to 2, we'd have scope to trade out 36 + 48 and still have enough points to match.

If Daicos slips to 3, we'd have scope to trade out 36 + 38 and still have enough points to match.

Personally, I heard what Cal Twomey said about us being interested but I can't see the play on 23. But the F3's we've currently got and whatever we get for 36 + 38/48 above should give us plenty of scope to get back into this year's draft elsewhere.

How many list vacancies do the Dogs have, thus how many picks can they use to match?

If you've got your maths right and Darcy gets a bid at 2 - we can then trade them 36+38 for pick 23. They increase their points and probably save their last couple of picks - which also come in to be decent picks - so there's a reason for them to do it (although they could probably get a better deal.) We then trade 23 into next year's draft.