List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade and FA

[Gymnorhina tibic]

Nobody is underestimating how good he is.
It’s just balancing the needs of now and the future which what I love about the language Leppa is using and how he’s approaching this.

My issue with this is that pick 23 just gets us the 30ish best player in the pool (if we take it to the draft). We get Houston and our window opens considerably wider, we are then more likely a a destination club for younger talent.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Exactly, we weren't even in the race a week ago. So l'm just happy we gave it a go, if we do miss out.
If we get ourselves into the draft, that's a win also....

I'm now hoping Houston stays at Port & Hawks miss out on Barass

But I still wouldn't mind Houston..

 

[Matt_352]

Can’t see us keeping 23. Something in the 30’s would do surely? Deep draft they keep saying…

Still want an early 20s pick

 

[celestial]

On a side note, still cannot believe we lost to that basket case of a club in GC.

 

[Hardas]

I'd just be saying to GC it's Noble and f1 for 13 and 23. Take it or leave it.

I think that of the 3 sides, GC are the most likely to blink first.
Houston & Nobes can stay without huge heartache, in theory; & while GC will say the same, that Lukosious' salary weighs a LOT.

 

[swoop42]

If Carlton still have an interest in Houston and are smart they'll offer up 12 for Sydney's 19 and 22 (if that offer is real).

This takes the option off the table for Port and leaves them with the decision between 19+22 or 13+ for Houston.

At the very least they'd force us to use 23 on Houston you'd sense if we get our hands on it.

Richards is uncontracted so he'll make his way to Port regardless.

If we fail in our bid to get 13 then we increase the price on Noble or hold him. That's our only real leverage but it still falls behind Port and GC if we want to get a deal done for Houston.

 

[VinnieB]

there’s a bidding war for 13. Syd have offered 19 and 21, Carlton traded a future first and second for 14. Our future first is not enough for 13. It’s a sellers market for Gold Coast

I think they are handcuffed to us.

 

[Hardas]

On a side note, still cannot believe we lost to that basket case of a club in GC.

Untimely injuries & that shitty humidity...

 

[Gymnorhina tibic]

I love the work Jen2310 does for all of us on the forum, but this focus on draft picks from some posters is akin to a gambler’s fallacy. We tend to get overexcited about the promise of potential and overvalue it against known quantity.

Put it this way, the absolute best you could hope for from pick 13 is… well a player of the calibre of Houston. And I’m talking absolute best. Houston is more like a top 5 pick when you consider his standing in the game and you’d have less than a 25% chance of hitting that level with a top 5 pick anyway.

For some reason we’re messing around with the trade as we want to have our cake and eat it too. If Leppa ends up keeping 23 out of the three way trade it would be robbery. Understand we want to keep a hand in this draft because it’s so strong but I would settle for 30 something pick instead. Good on him for trying but this is a make or break for a newly appointed director of footy. Pull it off and he’s legendary already, end up paying up and he’s done alright, but miss out on Houston and it’s a huge disappointment.

A player the calibre of Houston without the investment of 2-3 years development.

 

[frizzle]

They bent us over with Witt’s who became their captain. Don’t bend over again.

 

[Hardas]

You'll love him once he's in black and white

 

[TradeDraft]

Liking the way Leppa is talking and going about it. Very practical but strong on priorities. Of course, they always sound good on the Friday, let's see if it holds to next Wednesday evening.

I am thinking exact same thing

 

[Hardas]

I'm now hoping Houston stays at Port & Hawks miss out on Barass

But I still wouldn't mind Houston..

FWIW, I think of the two: Barass staying looks more likely right now.

 

[mumblingpie]

Finally trade period has become interesting

 

[Kes1984]

That ended well for them. Hopefully they try again actually

Another quarter of a century in the wilderness is right where I want to see them. Yes, do it again Carlton!

 

[nickyds35]

If Gold Coast want to play hardball for Pick 13, we should just call the 3-way trade off.

we can then play hardball and request Pick 23 + Pick 29 for Noble or they can forget it, noting these picks will end up closer to Pick 28 + 34 after academies.

We can then offer our future 1st + Pick 36 for Houston. They can take it or leave it.

If they leave it, we try and package our future first plus one of Pick 23, 29 or 36 to get into the first round this year.

Worst case scenario: Take Pick 23, 29 and 36 to the draft and keep our future 1st.

 

[Kes1984]

I'm now hoping Houston stays at Port & Hawks miss out on Barass

But I still wouldn't mind Houston..

I just want Houston. Massive hopes up about that!

 

[Basil brush]

If Carlton still have an interest in Houston and are smart they'll offer up 12 for Sydney's 19 and 22 (if that offer is real).

This takes the option off the table for Port and leaves them with the decision between 19+22 or 13+ for Houston.

At the very least they'd force us to use 23 on Houston you'd sense if we get our hands on it.

Richards is uncontracted so he'll make his way to Port regardless.

If we fail in our bid to get 13 then we increase the price on Noble or hold him. That's our only real leverage but it still falls behind Port and GC if we want to get a deal done for Houston.

Is Richards definitely not signing a new deal with us, if we don't get Houston?

I believe he was a bit undecided either way. Maybe we match port's contract if we don't get Houston?

I really like Joe, but obviously happy to let him leave if it gets us Dan.

 

[Gymnorhina tibic]

They bent us over with Witt’s who became their captain. Don’t bend over again.

How is an unneeded F1 and 2 fringe players, for an elite dual AA being bent over?

 

[mumblingpie]

You’d have to say ball is in Carltons court regarding Houston, if they really want him they can make it happen now

 

[The Majestic]

 

[gerryg400]

I'd just be saying to GC it's Noble and f1 for 13 and 23. Take it or leave it.

I think that’s happened.

 

[Ugene41]

I love the work Jen2310 does for all of us on the forum, but this focus on draft picks from some posters is akin to a gambler’s fallacy. We tend to get overexcited about the promise of potential and overvalue it against known quantity.

Put it this way, the absolute best you could hope for from pick 13 is… well a player of the calibre of Houston. And I’m talking absolute best. Houston is more like a top 5 pick when you consider his standing in the game and you’d have less than a 25% chance of hitting that level with a top 5 pick anyway.

For some reason we’re messing around with the trade as we want to have our cake and eat it too. If Leppa ends up keeping 23 out of the three way trade it would be robbery. Understand we want to keep a hand in this draft because it’s so strong but I would settle for 30 something pick instead. Good on him for trying but this is a make or break for a newly appointed director of footy. Pull it off and he’s legendary already, end up paying up and he’s done alright, but miss out on Houston and it’s a huge disappointment.

Yea TBH rather than getting hung up on trying to keep pick 23, I feel like at the end of the trade period, we might need to get comfortable with giving up our pick 36 and not picking until later.

Something like this might be what's needed to unlock the trade if we were the first one to blink:

Coll trades F1, Noble, Pick 36, 52, 55 for GC's Pick 13, 23, 41 - F1+36 equals the going rate for Pick 13, Noble = Pick 23 and 52 and 55 gives more points to GC than 41 whilst we get a pick upgrade.

Coll then trade Pick 13, 23, Richards for Houston and Port's Pick 39 and 58. Essentially values Houston as Pick 13 and 23 with 58 coming back (which Port probably won't use). Values Richards at Pick 39. Port will then have pick 13, 23 and Soldo's pick to take to the draft.

We walk away with Perryman, Houston and picks 39, 41 and 58 (which should come into 50 after bid matching). Ie 3 picks in the top 50 and hope the draft has the depth everyone is talking about to still find a couple of decent young players for the future. But ultimately it doesn't matter because Houston and Perryman would already be a massive success given our limited draft hand.

 

[swoop42]

Is Richards definitely not signing a new deal with us, if we don't get Houston?

I believe he was a bit undecided either way. Maybe we match port's contract if we don't get Houston?

I really like Joe, but obviously happy to let him leave if it gets us Dan.

He's indicated publicly he wants to be traded to Port. You have to take him on his word.

 

[TradeDraft]

Good and Bloody Suns