List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[No SPIN]

If you simplify something enough it indeed becomes simple, but not particularly useful.

The reality is you're not comparing players that are the same in everything except one attribute. Even if there's just two variables,which player are you taking the dual sided player or the one that is a better kick on their preferred foot.

Assumedly it's come down to how much better on their preferred foot, which we can't actually measure and thus go on vibe. And even if we could measure it, how much better before dual sided loses to better kick. The reality is it'd depend on other variables - do they have a lot of tricks or evasiveness to get back onto their preferred foot - can they do Nick Daicos kicks which make the left foot pretty unnecessary. Now add in all the other variables, including recruiting price, age and salary.

Hine has spoken about his process with draftees. He scores them against criteria and then adds up their score. Sounds simple and good. But the thing is if you weight the criteria incorrectly or get the important combinations of attributes incorrectly you're drafting Reef McInness before Scott Pendlebury.

As to the dual sided example I used - I qualified it by saying “all things being equal”, because you’re right otherwise the other peripheral variables will confound the choice.

There’s no such thing as perfect system but refining a systems and continuous improvement must always be the goal.
Ultimately you want to be as objective as possible and minimize the subjective influence of the “vibe”

 

[DIDAIC0S]

Dean makes Madgen look competent

No but seriously Dean is better than Madge.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Damien Barrett reckons we going to try get Jack Stringer

Is he better than Jake?

 

[Go Woods]

if we end up with stringer ill support him because he plays for us also i got a horrible feeling we could end up with Tom Lynch

Only if Tiggers pay at least a decent chuck of the ridiculous money he will be on in 2025.

 

[JuniorB]

Only if Tiggers pay at least a decent chuck of the ridiculous money he will be on in 2025.

They would have to give us a first round pick too.

 

[sr36]

As to the dual sided example I used - I qualified it by saying “all things being equal”, because you’re right otherwise the other peripheral variables will confound the choice.

There’s no such thing as perfect system but refining a systems and continuous improvement must always be the goal.
Ultimately you want to be as objective as possible and minimize the subjective influence of the “vibe”

I agree. We've just got to try to improve at evaluating trades, drafting, salary cap. But we can't expect accuracy.Not saying there's issues but all clubs need to. The reality though is footy metrics aren't accurate enough yet,so vibe might still be the most accurate way of predicting and valuing. They'll gradually be getting better at judging which metrics matter, but it's not long ago that what Grundy offered was considered invaluable, but there's more of a scoring focus to metrics now and all those hitouts and sloppy clearances he gets have been devalued.

And in trades, as supporters we've got to stop valuing trades against previous trades and prices had, as the market will be continuing changing as they all get better at analysing value.

 

[Apex36]

I mean, I said I think.

Given he was a depth player at the Suns it's hard to know his injury history of a team I don't follow and a player who doesn't play much

Im in the same boat, as are many people but Days injury history has been very well publicised, you don’t have to follow the suns to know he’s been one of if not the most injury prone player in the league for over a decade.

 

[BEEG]

Haven’t seen enough of Hind to comment, is he much worse than Noble? Will need a replacement runner out of defence if Noble goes, if Hind is free and Noble nets us a decent pick could be a net win?

He actually uses the pace which is a positive.

I thought he was pretty good for Essendon at times the last 2 years.

31 games in 2 seasons.

 

[Jasper84]

Stringer is far more capable a player than Johnson so good luck if the opposition don't want to pay him any respect.

If he came to the club his best is likely to be seen in his first year when he's motivated by the fresh environment and desire to stick it up the Bombers.

The reality is players like T. Mitchell and O'Meara were still best 22 players for Hawthorn when S. Mitchell decided to trade them and open opportunity for others.

That worked out well for us with Mitchell becoming a Premiership player but it's fair to say that by retaining all of our veterans we are all in for next season and that's fine if we bounce back hard. If we don't however then no doubt we will be denying greater opportunity for the next wave along the way and that'll be the worst possible outcome. Mid table of death here we come.

My point is retaining all of our veterans only works if we once again become a red hot Premiership chance in 25 and if we're going to go all in do we have the gonads to take that next level and take on someone like Stringer who has boom or bust written all over him.

I'm actually in the get Stringer camp but the difference with Mitchell is that the Hawks had capable inside mids who pushed Mitchell out of his preferred position. Mitchell works for us because he plays his role in our side just as he's asked. I genuinely don't know if Stringer can play a role that requires him to be more than a goal kicker. Ollie Henry or Ginnivan might be a better example than AJ.

 

[rdangelo]

Port would ask for the world given he is contracted until 2029

They must rate him so highly he can't get a game

 

[sr36]

How many of us have played with or against an AFL footballer? The guys that go outside the top 10-15 when it becomes about vibe are like gods compared to us mere mortals. Given how insanely talented the vast majority of these guys are it largely doesn’t matter what your rating system looks like. It all boils down to coachability and opportunity.

At best we could hope for marginal gains if an area for improvement is identified.

I think there is potential for significant gains if you get things right. Eg, I'm convinced the tiges got the future high pressure game style right and then upped their valuation of pace - enabling them to get blokes who played their system and style really well for great value.

 

[rdangelo]

Re. Stringer talk

If we think we can win the flag next year recruit him

He and DeGoey are the perfect centre bounce/forward rotation. You can always have one at the centre bounce

 

[JLC]

It's probably the players managers. We don't have much trade capital atm

We should be a destination club but I think destination club is more about which club is offering the best third party deals.

Essendon have been shyte at everything on and off field but have no problem attracting players.

 

[Jen2310]

They must rate him so highly he can't get a game

Hinkley said he hasnt played much footy in the last 8 weeks.

 

[Jasper84]

We should be a destination club but I think destination club is more about which club is offering the best third party deals.

Essendon have been shyte at everything on and off field but have no problem attracting players.

We are a destination club. Problem is that we generally don't have trade or financial currency because our players don't want to leave and we rarely finish in the bottom 5 on the ladder.

 

[Fruit]

Taylor Adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

31

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

would be wondering if he’s made the right move today. Could still work out for him but he will be sweating for a while.

 

[rdangelo]

Taylor Adams would be wondering if he’s made the right move today. Could still work out for him but he will be sweating for a while.

He sooked we played him out of position but really just wanted a longer deal.

Atleast we didn't drop him

 

[greening22]

Re. Stringer talk

If we think we can win the flag next year recruit him

He and DeGoey are the perfect centre bounce/forward rotation. You can always have one at the centre bounce

I am usually in the camp that you do not recruit players who are are 29 or 30 and/or over. OK. However in the case of Stringer, I would offer no more than a 2nd Round Draft choice to Essendon. Plus, I would expect him to be at the peak of fitness as he could not simply be a static forward in our forward line but as the previous poster suggested he would need to have the tank to occasionally go into the middle to help out our mid-field. OK.

Now I would like to raise the names of Alex Davies from the Gold Coast & James Peatling from GWS who are both young mid-fielders & who have both been linked to Collingwood as potential trades. Now I am not all that familiar with either or both players but would they be good acquisitions for the Pies? Goodnight & good luck.

 

[jimmy35]

The knock isn't on Stringer's ability to score. It's whether he could play in our system that requires high defensive pressure from all of the forwards. If he slacks, teams will play off him and the whole forward structure falls down. Pretty sure this is why AJ fell so far out of favour.

True but Stinger is so far above AJ it ist funny.

 

[No SPIN]

I agree. We've just got to try to improve at evaluating trades, drafting, salary cap. But we can't expect accuracy.Not saying there's issues but all clubs need to. The reality though is footy metrics aren't accurate enough yet,so vibe might still be the most accurate way of predicting and valuing. They'll gradually be getting better at judging which metrics matter, but it's not long ago that what Grundy offered was considered invaluable, but there's more of a scoring focus to metrics now and all those hitouts and sloppy clearances he gets have been devalued.

And in trades, as supporters we've got to stop valuing trades against previous trades and prices had, as the market will be continuing changing as they all get better at analysing value.

I think Grundy is an interesting example. He’s superfluous and unsuited to our game style but valued in the Swan system.
So projecting future game style changes is a different variable all together.
Which basically means that there is no option but to build a competitive style based on the attributes of the squad.
In other word squads comes before game style but you recruit/trade/delist based on the requirements of the new game style.

But some casualties will ensue per Grundy.

 

[Harry O]

Dean has not shown any ability to contest the ball in the air, even though he's young. He's also very slow and unathletic overall. His deficiencies would be OK, if he had great IQ or awareness and a good knowledge of defending areas and setting up team mates, like Lingy and Nick Maxwell, both were NOT athletes but have great IQs as defenders.

Dean's best game ever, was when he had 3-4 plays where he didnt make a mistake but simply completing basic plays that were EXPECTED for Best 22 player on a premiership team. He rarely repeated such accomplishment, but had more games where he was BEATEN almost comically by his direct competition.

Bad take that. You will eat your words.

 

[Stuart1966]

We should be a destination club but I think destination club is more about which club is offering the best third party deals.

Essendon have been shyte at everything on and off field but have no problem attracting players.

We should be a destination club but our salary cap according to reports is still a major handicap
Although in better shape than the past couple of years we are still paying for Grundy and Treloar
Lose their money and we are in the game for Barass Battle Houston and others
This and mismanagement of a few years back are still having a ripple effect

 

[Jekyll and Hyde]

I’ve been think about this, hear me out.
A straight swap, Noble for Lukosius. He’s the perfect replacement for Howe or playing as a true 2nd or 3rd forward. He kicked 39 goals in 2023 and was played all over the shop by hardwick. He’s an elite mark and is 24. I think he could be the retrospective trade of the year after next season. Sort his contract to pad it out over 4 years.

 

[Harry O]

We should be a destination club but our salary cap according to reports is still a major handicap
Although in better shape than the past couple of years we are still paying for Grundy and Treloar
Lose their money and we are in the game for Barass Battle Houston and others
This and mismanagement of a few years back are still having a ripple effect

The salary cap story does not match up with some of the deals we are supposed to be offering ion likes of Luko

 

[JLC]

We should be a destination club but our salary cap according to reports is still a major handicap
Although in better shape than the past couple of years we are still paying for Grundy and Treloar
Lose their money and we are in the game for Barass Battle Houston and others
This and mismanagement of a few years back are still having a ripple effect

We would not be the only club paying for players from another club.

That's been going on forever and a day.