List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[Apex36]

They are prob just as bad but i only wanted to look at the Pies. Based on that strike rate you have to ask if the current recruiters are doing a good job? To have so many play 0 games is daming.

It’s really not. Most other clubs will have a similar strike rate. The average across the league for draftees playing 50 games is only around 31% iirc. There are many, many, many draftees who never play a game, but you don’t hear about them unless they’re at your club.
At the risk of sounding like our resident spinster, I’d suggest you look at the comparative strike rate of other clubs. You’ll find similar results to ours mostly I suspect. You’ll find maybe a couple with better, and a few with far worse.

 

[stormskye]

TBH, I don't usually think development cost matters. The gap beaten a hit and a miss is so large that quibbling over getting it earlier isn't significant - Pendles would only be in his 18th season ... But with us at the moment - getting new players in earlier could be the difference between competing or being shite in two years time.

Our first next year will be devalued in any event. Teams know it has to be traded out. I’d happily take it for the right deal this year than risk a better one in 2026. We def need to kick start a min rebuild on the go. Tassie coming makes it even worse. I think now’s the time to top up.

This bloody trade period just needs to hurry up because we are all losing our minds in here. It’s almost a double punishment missing finals

 

[Apex36]

Pick 12 (1268 points) for Noble + 33 (563 points)

705 point difference values Noble at pick 27

Normally I’d go on a rant about using points to value players being irrelevant. But given GC is in the market for points I’ll allow this

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Pick 12 (1268 points) for Noble + 33 (563 points)

705 point difference values Noble at pick 27

I guess GC need some points. I normally hate using points but in this case it's not the worst.

 

[Eric Shin]

I just happened to catch a snippet of The Midweek Tackle and the panel are discussing Cotton On’s links with Geelong and Smith.

Basically, they’ve said you are allowed to have third-party deals but you can't rort the system. Ralph mentioned that it’ll be under heavy scrutiny, not just from the AFL, but from all the clubs.


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[partypie]

There’s no death riding. We won’t need it with McGuane. Trading into this year and getting a full 12months development is the better play

Of course there is an element of deathriding, there is no guarantee that we'll be better or perhaps even maintain our current position next year, so we could be giving up an earlier pick and Noble for pick 12.

How many times do we need to keep gambling and losing on trading future first round picks and then having nothing to work with during FA / trade period, or giving up an earlier selection in the draft, before we learn our lesson?

 

[sr36]

Our first next year will be devalued in any event. Teams know it has to be traded out. I’d happily take it for the right deal this year than risk a better one in 2026. We def need to kick start a min rebuild on the go. Tassie coming makes it even worse. I think now’s the time to top up.

This bloody trade period just needs to hurry up because we are all losing our minds in here. It’s almost a double punishment missing finals

I'd trade it out because this draft sounds ideal for us to attack and get some talls that should mature when our current ones are finishing. It sounds like the ideal draft for us to be in. I'd usually be into trading into the future as teams in our position pay up to have it now.

Players get devalued for forced sale - I don't think picks would. They're an auction and most clubs want them, if Carlton has outbid you, you're not going to keep your offer lower than it's worth and let them have it just because the other club has to sell.

 

[Roverjg]

Ive just reviewed every draft since 2005 when we drafted Pendelbury. I based it off 50 games played as an absolute minimum. The results are shocking.
2005, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games(33%)
2006, 10 in, 8 played over 50 games (80%)
2007, 6 in, 0 played over 50 games (0%)
2008, 11 in, 4 played over 50 games (34%)
2009, 8 in, 4 played over 50 games (50%)
2010, 14 in, 1 played over 50 games (7%)
2011, 10 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2012, 13 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2013, 8 in, 3 played over 50 games (37%)
2014, 10 in, 7 played over 50 games (70%)
2015, 10 in, 4 played over 50 games (40%)
2016, 12 in, 4 played over 50 games (33%)
2017, 7 in, 4 played over 50 games (43%)
2018, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games (33%)
2019, 4 in, 1 played over 50 games (25%)
2020, 10 in, 1 played over 50 games (10%)
2021, 8 in, 2 played over 50 games (25%)

The scary reading is how many never played 1 game!!! If i was running a business that strike rate would mean recruiters would be sacked.

The data you have provided is interesting. However based on your analysis you are expecting every pick to play 50 games irrespective of where our picks were. For several seasons our first pick was outside pick 25. So it would be expected that there was a likelihood of higher failure rate. If you look at afl draft guru it shows the average games played for every pick ever taken. Matching our picks against that will provide a better comparison as to whether our picks were above/below the AFL average

Pick 6 averages 69 games, whereas pick 40 averages 92 games and pick 86 averages 72 games

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[sr36]

Of course there is an element of deathriding, there is no guarantee that we'll be better or perhaps even maintain our current position next year, so we could be giving up an earlier pick and Noble for pick 12.

How many times do we need to keep gambling and losing on trading future first round picks and then having nothing to work with during FA / trade period, or giving up an earlier selection in the draft, before we learn our lesson?

We've just traded in the wrong years. Would have got a heap for our future first at the end of 2017 and then had it end up worth pick 17 - or end of 2021 we would have killed it.

This would be a pretty safe year to trade it - not likely to plummet that hard and also supposedly a deep draft so a pick 15 might be the equivalent odds of next year's top 10.

 

[HFF]

Apparently the Age are saying we are asking for pick 12 for JFN

About time we got aggressive with contracted players
We always pay overs on the opposite side
GC don’t need draft picks …they are stacked with too many and have academy products everywhere
They are here to make a move into finals now
That comes at a price

 

[sr36]

Ive just reviewed every draft since 2005 when we drafted Pendelbury. I based it off 50 games played as an absolute minimum. The results are shocking.
2005, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games(33%)
2006, 10 in, 8 played over 50 games (80%)
2007, 6 in, 0 played over 50 games (0%)
2008, 11 in, 4 played over 50 games (34%)
2009, 8 in, 4 played over 50 games (50%)
2010, 14 in, 1 played over 50 games (7%)
2011, 10 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2012, 13 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2013, 8 in, 3 played over 50 games (37%)
2014, 10 in, 7 played over 50 games (70%)
2015, 10 in, 4 played over 50 games (40%)
2016, 12 in, 4 played over 50 games (33%)
2017, 7 in, 4 played over 50 games (43%)
2018, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games (33%)
2019, 4 in, 1 played over 50 games (25%)
2020, 10 in, 1 played over 50 games (10%)
2021, 8 in, 2 played over 50 games (25%)

The scary reading is how many never played 1 game!!! If i was running a business that strike rate would mean recruiters would be sacked.

Just had a look at 2006 - as 8 out of 10 was so high. Even the 2 misses weren't that bad - Dick who was talented but did his knees. And Chris Bryan in the PSD who chopped out in the ruck in 30 games.

Bloody injury cursed year though: Reid, Brown, Goldsack, Dick, Macaffer, Dawes - all did at least one ACL - Wellingham had his share of injuries, Marty Clarke had some disease that ended his career.

 

[Finnishpie]

Of course there is an element of deathriding, there is no guarantee that we'll be better or perhaps even maintain our current position next year, so we could be giving up an earlier pick and Noble for pick 12.

How many times do we need to keep gambling and losing on trading future first round picks and then having nothing to work with during FA / trade period, or giving up an earlier selection in the draft, before we learn our lesson?

Probably around the time the drafts are compromised by Tasmania.

 

[sr36]

Ive just reviewed every draft since 2005 when we drafted Pendelbury. I based it off 50 games played as an absolute minimum. The results are shocking.
2005, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games(33%)
2006, 10 in, 8 played over 50 games (80%)
2007, 6 in, 0 played over 50 games (0%)
2008, 11 in, 4 played over 50 games (34%)
2009, 8 in, 4 played over 50 games (50%)
2010, 14 in, 1 played over 50 games (7%)
2011, 10 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2012, 13 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2013, 8 in, 3 played over 50 games (37%)
2014, 10 in, 7 played over 50 games (70%)
2015, 10 in, 4 played over 50 games (40%)
2016, 12 in, 4 played over 50 games (33%)
2017, 7 in, 4 played over 50 games (43%)
2018, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games (33%)
2019, 4 in, 1 played over 50 games (25%)
2020, 10 in, 1 played over 50 games (10%)
2021, 8 in, 2 played over 50 games (25%)

The scary reading is how many never played 1 game!!! If i was running a business that strike rate would mean recruiters would be sacked.

And that's a successful club, although most clubs would go at similar rates, as they probably recruit a similar amount of players in the long run and play a very similar number of games only varied by a few extra finals, so it's more about the quality of the games played by those you've drafted.

 

[magpies42]

Ive just reviewed every draft since 2005 when we drafted Pendelbury. I based it off 50 games played as an absolute minimum. The results are shocking.
2005, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games(33%)
2006, 10 in, 8 played over 50 games (80%)
2007, 6 in, 0 played over 50 games (0%)
2008, 11 in, 4 played over 50 games (34%)
2009, 8 in, 4 played over 50 games (50%)
2010, 14 in, 1 played over 50 games (7%)
2011, 10 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2012, 13 in, 2 played over 50 games (20%)
2013, 8 in, 3 played over 50 games (37%)
2014, 10 in, 7 played over 50 games (70%)
2015, 10 in, 4 played over 50 games (40%)
2016, 12 in, 4 played over 50 games (33%)
2017, 7 in, 4 played over 50 games (43%)
2018, 9 in, 3 played over 50 games (33%)
2019, 4 in, 1 played over 50 games (25%)
2020, 10 in, 1 played over 50 games (10%)
2021, 8 in, 2 played over 50 games (25%)

The scary reading is how many never played 1 game!!! If i was running a business that strike rate would mean recruiters would be sacked.

You should do that for all clubs, then also consider that we’ve been at the top of our game for most of that time…traded picks etc. so you should probably take an average of draft points available per club.

I bet we come up in the top end of clubs drafting wise.

Also have a look at how many retired due to chronic injury issues. You can’t predict that.

Over that period Geelong sit first in my book…Hawthorn are up there with Sydney (academy bias), Richmond and us.

That’s pretty good performance wise.

I think where we underperform is trading and list management…not helped by having our recruiting manager and President lead that.

 

[VinnieB]

He's not really worth pick 20 it's an end of first round pick - particularly in a strong draft. They'd probably be able to trade it for a future first. JFN isn't worth that - particularly as we're keeping the F.

I think we'd have to throw in our third round picks as well as JFN to get that pick 20.

After grabbing Rioli, they’ll need to focus on points to match a bid for their academy kid who could go top 10.

 

[sr36]

After grabbing Rioli, they’ll need to focus on points to match a bid for their academy kid who could go top 10.

Ultimately they'll sell off 6, 12, 20 and 26 and get Rioli, Noble, future picks and enough points for their academy kid thrown in in those sales. Getting points won't be an issue for them. I think we'll be pitching something to them with our future first Noble and current picks.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Ultimately they'll sell off 6, 12, 20 and 26 and get Rioli, Noble, future picks and enough points for their academy kid thrown in in those sales. Getting points won't be an issue for them. I think we'll be pitching something to them with our future first Noble and current picks.

Wouldn't mind picks 12 and 20 from the Suns, and take these to the draft. Maybe look at securing cheap trade/s, maybe a Laverde, who could help a Moore down back, and a Membrey, who is a unrestricted free agent to assist Mihocek and McStay ...

 

[Mollythedolly]

I just happened to catch a snippet of The Midweek Tackle and the panel are discussing Cotton On’s links with Geelong and Smith.

Basically, they’ve said you are allowed to have third-party deals but you can't rort the system. Ralph mentioned that it’ll be under heavy scrutiny, not just from the AFL, but from all the clubs.


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From memory, the treatment of third party deals changed following Judd’s move to Carlton. Have to be lodged with the afl and if I remember correctly, the afl can apportion some of the deal under TPP if it deems it’s merited. Not sure if there is a specific value that triggers TPP inclusion.

 

[Bramax]

Worth listening to Eddie talk about Holmes on his podcast this week, as he played junior Footy at Eddie's local club.

Says Holmes is just replicating the kind of Footy he played during his junior career. He's got the elite combo of speed, power and endurance. Knows where the footy is as well.

And we overlooked him

 

[Bramax]

Rioli ain’t worth pick 6.

It seems the Suns have plenty of picks so they’re probably willing to pay overs to fill a need.

 

[Bramax]

Wouldn't mind picks 12 and 20 from the Suns, and take these to the draft. Maybe look at securing cheap trade/s, maybe a Laverde, who could help a Moore down back, and a Membrey, who is a unrestricted free agent to assist Mihocek and McStay ...

Membrey has played some great footy this year.

 

[northcotehead]

I grew up there, the old school skips would say lawlar then the influx of wogs In the 70s changed it to laylor

 

[JLC]

From memory, the treatment of third party deals changed following Judd’s move to Carlton. Have to be lodged with the afl and if I remember correctly, the afl can apportion some of the deal under TPP if it deems it’s merited. Not sure if there is a specific value that triggers TPP inclusion.

ah that's right, Juddy the recycling king and lover of all things environmental. No way that rort gets ticked off for us,


Michael Warner From: Herald Sun February 25, 2010

THE AFL last night conceded 114 players were paid more than $2 million outside the league salary cap by club associates last season - and insisted it was all legal.

Would love to know what the amount is now.

 

[WalterBlaknWhte]

It’s really not. Most other clubs will have a similar strike rate. The average across the league for draftees playing 50 games is only around 31% iirc. There are many, many, many draftees who never play a game, but you don’t hear about them unless they’re at your club.
At the risk of sounding like our resident spinster, I’d suggest you look at the comparative strike rate of other clubs. You’ll find similar results to ours mostly I suspect. You’ll find maybe a couple with better, and a few with far worse.

Wasn’t expecting to read a self-reference of ‘resident spinster’

I stand by your identities Pexxy xx

 

[sideswipe]

Wasn’t expecting to read a self-reference of ‘resident spinster’

I stand by your identities Pexxy xx

Reckon using that descriptor in the workplace might create a bit of fun.


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