List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[Seedsfan]

If the only risk with Shaz and Freeman or any other draft pick was their body failing, I'd agree with you.

It is fair to expect that we run at a 50% success rate and brake even at worst

 

[Jen2310]

2 kids out of the draft. Will they make us better next year or Houston. Or are you going some side ways ramble again?

The draft is about the future
Trading is for the now.
Which is why you find a balance for both.

 

[Seedsfan]

2 kids out of the draft. Will they make us better next year or Houston. Or are you going some side ways ramble again?

Well plenty have had a good impact in their first year. You have NFI

 

[Ugene41]

Different scenarios. No one valued those second round picks last year, because there were so many academy kids and teams didnt rate the draft enough to open a lot of list spots, so forget that second round pick part of it. Then with the future first, it ended being a lower number than expected in a draft that's value has also risen significantly since the deal.

If Carlton aren't willing to trade their current first, not sure how they're offering more.

Carlton aren't getting him either if they're not willing to trade 2x firsts. It's not about offering more than Carlton, it's about offering enough to convince Port to trade their second best player with 3 years left on his contract to a direct finals competitor.

At the moment, no one is coming close except North who've offered their future first that's likely to be a top 3 pick. Even then, Houston might not want to go there so the status quo is Houstons staying at Port for another year. Like Petracca

 

[Apex36]

The only metric that even remotely shows the value of the trade is looking at the players drafted with those picks. In this case it's Treloar for Logue and Weiderman. Dunno if you want to continue hitching your wagon to this argument.

That’s assuming that Hine had those two on his board at those points. In 2015 both Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow were taken after Weideman, and McKay in particular was a typical Hine selection being one of the youngest players in the draft (24th December birthday).
2016 was a bit of a poo draft but there were a few players we could have taken, Jy Simpkin being one that stood out.
So yeah I get what you’re saying but ultimately the metric you’ve given is almost as flawed as what you’re arguing against.

 

[Seedsfan]

The draft is about the future
Trading is for the now.
Which is why you find a balance for both.

It’s why you target free agents for the now and keep picks for the future so you can look after both objectives

 

[jimmy35]

If we manage to replace Noble with Houston, thats massive would put us right back into contentioin. Im pretty sure the club know next year is the last dance for Pendles, Howe, Sidey etc.

Yep strike hard. There’s alway picks again next year, the year after etc etc to reload through the draft.
Personally it looks a hard job to land him here but if he chooses us then hopefully someone can pull a rabbit out of a hat. A mythical pick 12 for Nobes and Richards to Port just doesn’t seem to be enough. We’ll see.

 

[Stronzatello]

The draft is about the future
Trading is for the now.
Which is why you find a balance for both.

Spot on Jen!

 

[jimmy35]

Well plenty have had a good impact in their first year. You have NFI

As good an impact as a dual AA? And I have no idea
Thought you might try and take it sideways. You’re a spinner.

 

[jimmy35]

The draft is about the future
Trading is for the now.
Which is why you find a balance for both.

And they do and will. There’s always draft picks every year Jen.

 

[rdangelo]

The draft is about the future
Trading is for the now.
Which is why you find a balance for both.

Not always true.
If you have a couple top 10 picks then yes.
If you have picks 30+ like we do it's a raffle.
Trade for now, we have something to win

 

[No SPIN]

You simply can’t neglect your future, to go all in for the now. If we don’t win a flag next year, we’re up against it in the three years beyond that.

Pendles, Checkers, Sidey, Howe, Cox, Elliott, WHE, Mitchell will all go in the years following next.

A balance must be struck in order to challenge every 10 years. This is not the right strategy at all.

Gloom and doom in 2017, 2021 - what happened?
We found a way.

 

[Jen2310]

Not always true.
If you have a couple top 10 picks then yes.
If you have picks 30+ like we do it's a raffle.
Trade for now, we have something to win

I imagine the plan would be to improve those picks to get within the top 30. Add in what we get for Noble.
But lots of talls within the 30's
Recent reports was that we want to find a way to get back into the first round.

 

[BEEG]

All this talk about Housten vs picks is ridiculous.
With Housten you're getting a gun and right now we need guns to win another Premiership.
The fact that people value unknown players (picks) ahead of ready made ones when it's hit or miss when we are in a premiership window is buffoonery.

Especially the way we have drafted the past 8 years.

 

[No SPIN]

Also you have a higher chance of success taking two first rounders to the draft than you do trading for a single player

Give us the numbers.

 

[Jasper84]

That’s assuming that Hine had those two on his board at those points. In 2015 both Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow were taken after Weideman, and McKay in particular was a typical Hine selection being one of the youngest players in the draft (24th December birthday).
2016 was a bit of a poo draft but there were a few players we could have taken, Jy Simpkin being one that stood out.
So yeah I get what you’re saying but ultimately the metric you’ve given is almost as flawed as what you’re arguing against.

Oh I absolutely agree. For a brief moment there I got dragged into Seedsfan's noodle pot of hypothetical buffoonery.

 

[sr36]

Carlton aren't getting him either if they're not willing to trade 2x firsts. It's not about offering more than Carlton, it's about offering enough to convince Port to trade their second best player with 3 years left on his contract to a direct finals competitor.

At the moment, no one is coming close except North who've offered their future first that's likely to be a top 3 pick. Even then, Houston might not want to go there so the status quo is Houstons staying at Port for another year. Like Petracca

If he's willing to go to North, he'll get there. But more likely it comes down to the minimum Port are willing to accept from the club he'd like to go to. It's a pure guess on my behalf.

 

[jimmy35]

Give us the numbers.

Plenty of AA quality kids to play in their first season apparently.

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

It’s why you target free agents for the now and keep picks for the future so you can look after both objectives

I think the club is doing a decent job of balancing both objectives and Leppa seems to think we can continue to do so. TBH I’m struggling to see the crisis some seem to think we are in or is immanent in the near future.

 

[Seedsfan]

I think the club is doing a decent job of balancing both objectives and Leppa seems to think we can continue to do so. TBH I’m struggling to see the crisis some seem to think we are in or is immanent in the near future.

Look at our young talent compared to everyone else’s. For a team that missed the finals

 

[sr36]

It is fair to expect that we run at a 50% success rate and brake even at worst

A 50/50 for what though. Outside of the first couple of picks, they're not 50/50 to become as good as Treloar or Houston. To me Treloar was a definite gain on what you'd expect from those two picks. Houston trickier as he's better but older, so you're not getting that many games

 

[No SPIN]

Look at our young talent compared to everyone else’s. For a team that missed the finals

Look at all the wooden spoons Carlton have been giving their first rounders for the last 20 years.

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

Look at our young talent compared to everyone else’s. For a team that missed the finals

So we look to improve it using all the tools available to us whilst maintaining a level head. Trying to fix non existent crises tends to lead to exactly the opposite.

 

[soreplums]

Huge mistake

Morris exactly what we need

I think there were some concerns over a few of his social behaviours

 

[manicpie]