List Mgmt. Collingwood Trade Talk 2016 Part 3

[Matt_352]

No to trading DeGoey for Wright, Lynch etc wait till we have the picks next year

 

[Breakthelines]

Boys and Girls

I called up SEN this morning to have a chat with Terry about his thoughts on what some of our players would be worth in terms of draft picks. Was a little taken back but what he thought Witts was worth.

Witts: Early 3 rounder
Williams: Early to late 3rd rounder
Frost: 4th round ( was happy with that as I would take a can of coke and 3 south Melbourne dim sims for Frost)

Thoughts?

Agree.

Witts - Pick 41
Frost - Pick 57

 

[Matt_352]

Agree.

Witts - Pick 41
Frost - Pick 57

Hell no

 

[Breakthelines]

Hell no

That's what it would be based on Wallaces assessment.

 

[Crazy Tails]

Agree.

Witts - Pick 41
Frost - Pick 57

I'd like a bit more than that but in saying that both could be used on F/S. With the discount 41 becomes 31 and 57 becomes 43.

31 and 43 could quite easily get you one or both of Brown or Daicos.


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[Matt_352]

That's what it would be based on Wallaces assessment.

Wallace is a moron

 

[SpongePie]

If Wood can get Pick 14 surely Witts can lol

Yeah, that is kind of where I'm angling. I want to be realistic about it, but it is an interesting comparison. There was a NEED for Wood at the time, and we paid accordingly for it. If GC have a NEED for Witts, then we MIGHT be pleasantly surprised?

Not sure if this will display, looks ok in Excel on my laptop...
Top line is Woods in 07.
Bottom line is Witts in 16.



Pre trade - Woods played 6 games more than Witts. So all the values here are averages. Not a great sample as Witts only played 2 games in the firsts. But, it is all I have to work with...

Witts averaged (in the AFL team in 2016) - more kicks, more handballs, more disposals, more scoring, more hit outs, more tackles, more 1%ers, more clangers.
Woods averaged (in the Bris AFL team in 2007) - more marks, less clangers, less frees against.

Again - I know this isnt 1 to 1 comparison, and I know this was 10 years ago, and the sample size int he "pre trade" seasons are really small. But I am bored at work... Witts seems slightly ahead of Wood, and we paid 14 for him.



EDIT - to be clear, before I get flamed, I dont think we will get a pick ~14 for Witts.

 

[TW Sherrin]

Hopefully that means it only costs us a 3rd-4th rounder

if its a 3rd I'd hope they throw late picks in or a steaknives. doubt they use late picks anyway.

Agree.

Witts - Pick 41
Frost - Pick 57

cant see the point in taking these picks. we'd be much better off upgrading our picks instead.

there will be clubs offloading late picks which we can use for father sons.

 

[unplugged]

Just read that it actually opens at 10am, not 9am.

 

[Old Spice]

Boys and Girls

I called up SEN this morning to have a chat with Terry about his thoughts on what some of our players would be worth in terms of draft picks. Was a little taken back but what he thought Witts was worth.

Witts: Early 3 rounder
Williams: Early to late 3rd rounder
Frost: 4th round ( was happy with that as I would take a can of coke and 3 south Melbourne dim sims for Frost)

Thoughts?

Terry Wallace has been getting high with Towellie again.

 

[TW Sherrin]

if mayne is getting 500k x 4 there has to be a reason.

freo needs early picks. what does 4 x 500k = ?

are freo allowed to pay some of his salary and still get compo?

is there a freo player (Langdon?) coming our way and they are paying his wage?

maybe on 4 x 500k doesn't make any sense unless something else is going on.

(ps I'll still dream its part of a fyfe deal..)

 

[Apex36]

Hard to justify a price like that for a ruck who couldn't get a game in a team which finished 12th. Being behind Grundy might be a mitigating factor but if we can get someone to pay anywhere near 30 surely we take it

Where your team finished becomes irrelevant when you're stuck behind a top 5 league wide ruckman.

 

[Tassiepies83]

My tip is on Hawthorn making the first FA move on Vickery. They don't muck around, they just get their moves done.

Let's hope they do move early because I'd be interested to know what compo Richmond will get. Let's hope it's end of 2nd round and not after their 2nd pick...otherwise that moves our 2nd round pick down even more.

I also reckon with the contract we are offering Wells, that North Melbourne will get end of 1st round selection. So that again moves our pick down. Fingers crossed they only get a 2nd so it doesn't effect us.

The point is that those 2 moves probably have to go down early because it will impact on our trading since other teams will be uncertain where our 2nd round pick will drop to.

If the deal for mayne is also as big as reported probably get Freo pick22 which would push down another. However I think a swap of picks our 25 for freo 22 just for taking Mayne!

 

[Maggie5]

I get the outside scutiny from getting in a couple of older guys just to save buckley's job. But i believe its more to save the face of the club for the supporters, we need to win games to make finals to get supporters excited again as memberships have dropped off this year but probably more than that we cant rely on collingwood name alone to entice quality talent to come to the club we need to show we are going in the right direction on the ladder to get the players in, which i think we may be trying to do next year!

I think it is a number of supporters that have been saying that.
Rebuilding takes patience.
Plenty of talent has come and there will be more but the club's has limited ability this year.
I am not a big fan of bringing in older players during a rebuild but players like Wells may be needed as with players retiring need the balance of experience.

 

[Apex36]

That's what it would be based on Wallaces assessment.

Yeah, but Wallace is a peanut who barely ever gets these things right.

 

[mattys123]

Usually, Jarrod Witts would only be worth a third round pick, but with the Suns being an absolute mess, and desperately in need of experienced players, they will give us one of their 3 picks in the 20's for Witts.

I think the most obvious deal will involve pick 29, the final of the Suns 2nd round picks.

It may involve a later round swap of picks too, but pick 29 is about right given the circumstances.

Pick 29 wouldn't be far off the mark for Hoskin-Elliott I reckon then, maybe also with a late swap of picks involved.

 

[Bay Pie]

if mayne is getting 500k x 4 there has to be a reason.

freo needs early picks. what does 4 x 500k = ?

are freo allowed to pay some of his salary and still get compo?

is there a freo player (Langdon?) coming our way and they are paying his wage?

maybe on 4 x 500k doesn't make any sense unless something else is going on.

(ps I'll still dream its part of a fyfe deal..)

Or the deal is heavily loaded with triggers, like top 5 Copeland finish, goals kicked etc.

If he gets, say, the also reported $1.4M over 4 years but can make up to an extra $150k per year if he hits those triggers is it that bad a deal?

If he finishes top 5 in the Copeland for 4 years straight he's earnt $500k p.a. Look at his competition for top 5. Pendles, AT and Sidey would be locks pending injury. Then Tay Adams, Reidy, a settled Howe? It'll mean he's had pretty good years. Or put another way, is $500k to expensive for our 5th best player in any given year?

 

[Dynamics]

Pay no mind to Wallace. His guesses really are just that... Guesses. He has NFI.

He got the Dawes trade wrong, he got the Wellingham trade wrong, he got the Jesse White trade wrong.

His radio work makes it abundantly clear why he is in the media and not an actual "List Manager".

 

[jmac70]

Just read that it actually opens at 10am, not 9am.

Needs to open later to allow TD time to have breakfast.

 

[Apex36]

Usually, Jarrod Witts would only be worth a third round pick, but with the Suns being an absolute mess, and desperately in need of experienced players, they will give us one of their 3 picks in the 20's for Witts.

I think the most obvious deal will involve pick 29, the final of the Suns 2nd round picks.

It may involve a later round swap of picks too, but pick 29 is about right given the circumstances.

Pick 29 wouldn't be far off the mark for Hoskin-Elliott I reckon then, maybe also with a late swap of picks involved.

I'll be fuming if we pay any more than a 3rd for WHE. We're taking the inflated salary of a NEAFL player that they desperately need off their books, they can gagf if they start asking for a good pick too.

 

[Apex36]

Pay no mind to Wallace. His guesses really are just that... Guesses. He has NFI.

He got the Dawes trade wrong, he got the Wellingham trade wrong, he got the Jesse White trade wrong.

His radio work makes it abundantly clear why he is in the media and not an actual "List Manager".

Yep. As I said earlier, he's a peanut who barely ever gets these things right!

 

[mattys123]

I'll be fuming if we pay any more than a 3rd for WHE. We're taking the inflated salary of a NEAFL player that they desperately need off their books, they can gagf if they start asking for a good pick too.

I see it as a Witts for WHE trade basically. Which I'm %100 fine with. Chances are neither will be on a senior list in a few years time anyway, as they are both over rated state league level players. So Witts for WHE. Do it.

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[jmac70]

I see it as a Witts for WHE trade basically. Which I'm %100 fine with. Chances are neither will be on a senior list in a few years time anyway, as they are both over rated state league level players. So Witts for WHE. Do it.

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Excuse my ignorance Matty, if WHE is nothing more than a state league player then why are we recruiting him?

 

[mattys123]

Excuse my ignorance Matty, if WHE is nothing more than a state league player then why are we recruiting him?

Smarter minds then me would be able to answer that, but if WHE ended up at another club, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

He's worth the risk at the right price, which is about what we will get for Witts. Both players may improve given more opportunity at a new club, but I doubt it.

 

[jmac70]

Smarter minds then me would be able to answer that, but if WHE ended up at another club, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

He's worth the risk at the right price, which is about what we will get for Witts. Both players may improve given more opportunity at a new club, but I doubt it.

Fair enough.