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Comparing club lists by draft points values
Hey J Dog,
I look at lists of draftees up to the first GC draft, and the lists after the GWS last draft - you'd expect it to be 12.5% more drafted, as the lists overall are 12.5% bigger.
They don't seem to be, does your data reflect that? Im suspecting the other clubs adjusting to the compromise drafts means more players getting longer in the game
I look at lists of draftees up to the first GC draft, and the lists after the GWS last draft - you'd expect it to be 12.5% more drafted, as the lists overall are 12.5% bigger.
They don't seem to be, does your data reflect that? Im suspecting the other clubs adjusting to the compromise drafts means more players getting longer in the game
Killer_Mike
Premiership Player
I validated the data by confirming who the 9th ranked club was on the "career draft points value" as indicated in charts 3 & 4.
I'm satisfied of the accuracy of this data!
I'm satisfied of the accuracy of this data!
nicely done.
another reminder of how strong the AFL Allstars have become ... in 2015 they were playing in front of seagulls and administrators ... the AFL stacking their private team might give the AFL a bunch of grandfinals and a few premierships but in the end it will fail because their drafting advantage will wain over the next few years and Sydney sports fans will lose any interest (assuming any are interested now).
Longer term the non AFL states will always need help from the AFL because they don't have multi generational followers and rabbits like me and others who will burn our membership cards and swear and curse our team but will dwell on every result every week being emtionally up or down and keep buying memberships each year in the hope we will do a Bulldogs.
another reminder of how strong the AFL Allstars have become ... in 2015 they were playing in front of seagulls and administrators ... the AFL stacking their private team might give the AFL a bunch of grandfinals and a few premierships but in the end it will fail because their drafting advantage will wain over the next few years and Sydney sports fans will lose any interest (assuming any are interested now).
Longer term the non AFL states will always need help from the AFL because they don't have multi generational followers and rabbits like me and others who will burn our membership cards and swear and curse our team but will dwell on every result every week being emtionally up or down and keep buying memberships each year in the hope we will do a Bulldogs.
- Jun 6, 2012
- 10,023
- 17,810
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Rampage
Traded value makes more sense than drafted value in a lot of cases. Pick 135 being a lot closer to Rhys Palmer's worth than pick 7 for example
- Oct 11, 2012
- 4,550
- 7,105
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Great stuff J Dog. Some interesting trends.
How did you value the 17yo pre first draft concession players that GC & GWS received, guys like Shiel, Cameron, Wilson, etc, and the four mini draft players Hogan, B Crouch, Martin & I forget the other.
How did you value the 17yo pre first draft concession players that GC & GWS received, guys like Shiel, Cameron, Wilson, etc, and the four mini draft players Hogan, B Crouch, Martin & I forget the other.
sr36
TheBrownDog
Confirms my suspicion that teams who finish lower on the ladder receive better draft picks than those who finish high on the ladder.
I think there's also plenty of examples around the league of players who are worth nowhere near their traded value too. Going off last year alone.
- McCarthy would have negative value with all other picks involved in the trade are considered. GWS were only interested in pick 3 and compensated us well for it (will be a win-win trade IMO). McCarthy is worth closer to the pick 14 he was drafted at.
- Nathan Brown got Collingwood zero compensation because Collingwood signed Mayne and Wells as free agents. Brown was worth nothing at all according to the formula. Not worth the pick 10 he was drafted at but certainly not nothing.
- Tuohy and Smedts were involved in the same trade. How do we determine who's worth what? Not to mention that the picks involved were future picks which don't have points attached yet.
Both systems have faults but at least their original draft value gives each player a value.
Aramis
Premiership Player
- Jul 31, 2016
- 4,324
- 9,077
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
really really hope that was deliberate irony......
The charts below compare each club based on the collective draft points value of its playing list at the start of each season. Only players still on the list for that year are counted to the total. For example, Brett Deledio counts on Richmond's totals for 2013-2016 and GWS for 2017. Richard Tambling counts on Adelaide's list in 2013, but not for any of the following years since being delisted.
Chart 1 – Shows how much draft assistance GWS has received – in 2017 they are still 73 per cent above average and 53 per cent above the Gold Coast.
Chart 2 – Shows a five year trend. GWS and Gold Coast now trending down while reducing their playing lists and trading former high picks to other clubs, such as Carlton. Note that in 2015 GWS's total was 87 per cent above average. Other clubs such as Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood have been building their list with high draft picks. Collingwood have grown their list value by 51 per cent since 2013. Carlton have grown their value by 41 per cent.
Chart 3 – Shows draft point values adjusted based on how many years players have remaining in their career, assuming each player can play up to 15 seasons from the year of draft. GWS are 80 per cent above average and 39 per cent above the Gold Coast. Hawthorn is 46 per cent below average.
Chart 4 – Shows a five year trend in remaining career draft point values. Note the Bulldogs have 16th best draft points total, but tenth best based on remaining career. Hawthorn has the 13th best draft points total, but is 18th based on remaining career. Geelong has also been trending worse over the last five years as its high draft picks have retired.
A shortcoming with this analysis is that it's based on draft value at the time of the draft and rookies have no draft points value. However, the AFL's research using player performance data from 2001 to 2015 found that relative draft position is the best indicator of future individual success. The decision to give the first draft selection 3,000 points, number two 2,517 points etc for trading and father-son/academy selections is based on this historical data.
The Herald-Sun did a similar analysis in late 2015. http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2015-superfooty-assesses-the-points-value-at-every-afl-club/news-story/ff1787c923a7bfd3dff8c7f3678c4d6b. One difference with this analysis is that I've attempted to include a fair value for the draft concessions for GWS and Gold Coast and other clubs vis GWS trade and zone picks that had no draft points value. My main assumptions are Shiel, Jack Martin and O’Meara = 3000pts (i.e. equivalent to first pick), Hogan and Brad Crouch = 2517pts (second pick), Jeremy Cameron = 2234pts (third), Treloar = 1395 pts (tenth), Trent McKenzie = 1025 pts (17th), Matera and Bugg = 912 pts (20th), Dixon, Hombsch and Zac Smith = 629 pts (30th), Rory Thompson, Steven May = 429pts (40th), many others 273pts and below (pick 50 and below).
No huge surprises standing out.
Would Adelaide's place alter if they werent punished/stripped of a bunch of picks ? Carlton (Goddard) as well i suppose.
Would Adelaide's place alter if they werent punished/stripped of a bunch of picks ? Carlton (Goddard) as well i suppose.
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,112
- 40,635
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
Oh I understand. I actually love the concept, it's more that I am trying to find the gaps in the dataset. You've done an awesome job.
The J Dog
Team Captain
- Thread starter
- #43
Tried to use objective judgement but obviously a lot of speculation. Rated Martin and O'Meara as equivalent to a number 1 pick as they were taken ahead of Hogan and Crouch. Rated Shiel as a number 1 based on his reputation when he was taken as a concession. Other values were more speculative.
The J Dog
Team Captain
- Thread starter
- #44
I haven't done the analysis on player career lengths, but Draftguru has e.g https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2017/adelaide
In terms of the total draft values of all players on AFL lists, I measured it growing by 2 per cent in 2014, and by 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016, but falling by 2 per cent this year due to the new clubs reducing list sizes I expect.
- May 16, 2014
- 12,163
- 15,984
- AFL Club
- Carlton
But using such a large whack of data will either average it out or I guess in the case of underperforming clubs, have them as an outlier showing there is something wrong (I'd think).
CrowMan90
Team Captain
Exactly. Not wanting to turn this into an Adelaide is great thread, but our drafting team have done a great job with what's been available.
Wayne Swan
Club Legend
- Sep 9, 2013
- 2,068
- 3,172
- AFL Club
- Sydney
Have to agree. I thought the Tippetgate penalties would have hurt you more than they have but your recruiters have done a great job in building the list.
I never thought you should sell the farm the way some hysterical supporters thought you should have to get Gibbs. The "organic growth" mantra was lampooned but no other club has had as much organic growth as you guys this year.
Hawks look to have organic death at present! Will be an interesting watch over the next couple of seasons. The further they fall the more they have given for O'Meara - ouch!
Wayne Swan
Club Legend
- Sep 9, 2013
- 2,068
- 3,172
- AFL Club
- Sydney
Good work. Whenever there's talk about how many first rounders/top 10 GWS have, Shiel, Cameron etc have to be added in as they would have been very high draft picks as 18yo's.
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