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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Traded value makes more sense than drafted value in a lot of cases. Pick 135 being a lot closer to Rhys Palmer's worth than pick 7 for example
They dont sent the brightest kids to the dumbest universities
But the AFL do. How much talent has been wasted?
The charts below compare each club based on the collective draft points value of its playing list at the start of each season. Only players still on the list for that year are counted to the total. For example, Brett Deledio counts on Richmond's totals for 2013-2016 and GWS for 2017. Richard Tambling counts on Adelaide's list in 2013, but not for any of the following years since being delisted.
Chart 1 – Shows how much draft assistance GWS has received – in 2017 they are still 73 per cent above average and 53 per cent above the Gold Coast.
Chart 2 – Shows a five year trend. GWS and Gold Coast now trending down while reducing their playing lists and trading former high picks to other clubs, such as Carlton. Note that in 2015 GWS's total was 87 per cent above average. Other clubs such as Melbourne, Essendon and Collingwood have been building their list with high draft picks. Collingwood have grown their list value by 51 per cent since 2013. Carlton have grown their value by 41 per cent.
Chart 3 – Shows draft point values adjusted based on how many years players have remaining in their career, assuming each player can play up to 15 seasons from the year of draft. GWS are 80 per cent above average and 39 per cent above the Gold Coast. Hawthorn is 46 per cent below average.
Chart 4 – Shows a five year trend in remaining career draft point values. Note the Bulldogs have 16th best draft points total, but tenth best based on remaining career. Hawthorn has the 13th best draft points total, but is 18th based on remaining career. Geelong has also been trending worse over the last five years as its high draft picks have retired.
A shortcoming with this analysis is that it's based on draft value at the time of the draft and rookies have no draft points value. However, the AFL's research using player performance data from 2001 to 2015 found that relative draft position is the best indicator of future individual success. The decision to give the first draft selection 3,000 points, number two 2,517 points etc for trading and father-son/academy selections is based on this historical data.
The Herald-Sun did a similar analysis in late 2015. http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2015-superfooty-assesses-the-points-value-at-every-afl-club/news-story/ff1787c923a7bfd3dff8c7f3678c4d6b. One difference with this analysis is that I've attempted to include a fair value for the draft concessions for GWS and Gold Coast and other clubs vis GWS trade and zone picks that had no draft points value. My main assumptions are Shiel, Jack Martin and O’Meara = 3000pts (i.e. equivalent to first pick), Hogan and Brad Crouch = 2517pts (second pick), Jeremy Cameron = 2234pts (third), Treloar = 1395 pts (tenth), Trent McKenzie = 1025 pts (17th), Matera and Bugg = 912 pts (20th), Dixon, Hombsch and Zac Smith = 629 pts (30th), Rory Thompson, Steven May = 429pts (40th), many others 273pts and below (pick 50 and below).
Okay. So for example Toumpas is considered a pick 4, which would be a flaw in the system (being a bust etc)
No huge surprises standing out.
Would Adelaide's place alter if they werent punished/stripped of a bunch of picks ? Carlton (Goddard) as well i suppose.
Oh I understand. I actually love the concept, it's more that I am trying to find the gaps in the dataset. You've done an awesome job.There are examples of players at every pick who under and over perform relative to the pick, but other good number 4 picks include Pavlich, Josh Kennedy (WC), Bontempelli and Gaff.
Great stuff J Dog. Some interesting trends.
How did you value the 17yo pre first draft concession players that GC & GWS received, guys like Shiel, Cameron, Wilson, etc, and the four mini draft players Hogan, B Crouch, Martin & I forget the other.
Hey J Dog,
I look at lists of draftees up to the first GC draft, and the lists after the GWS last draft - you'd expect it to be 12.5% more drafted, as the lists overall are 12.5% bigger.
They don't seem to be, does your data reflect that? Im suspecting the other clubs adjusting to the compromise drafts means more players getting longer in the game
Traded value makes more sense than drafted value in a lot of cases. Pick 135 being a lot closer to Rhys Palmer's worth than pick 7 for example
Exactly. Not wanting to turn this into an Adelaide is great thread, but our drafting team have done a great job with what's been available.taking away Brad Crouch as a mini-draft pick, Adelaide is the only club to not have even a single top 10 draft pick on their list
Have to agree. I thought the Tippetgate penalties would have hurt you more than they have but your recruiters have done a great job in building the list.Exactly. Not wanting to turn this into an Adelaide is great thread, but our drafting team have done a great job with what's been available.
Good work. Whenever there's talk about how many first rounders/top 10 GWS have, Shiel, Cameron etc have to be added in as they would have been very high draft picks as 18yo's.Tried to use objective judgement but obviously a lot of speculation. Rated Martin and O'Meara as equivalent to a number 1 pick as they were taken ahead of Hogan and Crouch. Rated Shiel as a number 1 based on his reputation when he was taken as a concession. Other values were more speculative.
That is really interesting data. I suspect that if you did this over the past 30 years there would be some correlation between team draft points and success but I am guessing with the amount of work that clubs put into the draft nowadays, that correlation is going to be much more pronounced in the next 30 years.
It would be good to try and overlay an average age line. If the common wisdom is that players peak between 24 and 28 (?), theoretically a team with high draft value and an average age of 26 would be right in the premiership window. I think this data will get stronger in years to come.