List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion, 2023: Picks 1,20,34,39,53 ,58

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The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...
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Link to Lore ’s excellent draft order thread that is updated to reflect current ladder positions

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Resource - 2023 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!
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Jupes said:
where did the barrass to sydney rumours start? on here?
Click to expand...
Sounds like bullshIt to me -
  • He would get, what, an extra $250k pa ($125k after tax)
  • Gets maybe an extra year or two on his last contract
  • Leaves WA where he has just paid $3.5m for a house in Peppermint Grove which they have just moved into.
  • Takes 2 very young kids away from their grandparents including his own, recently widowed mother.
Can't see it myself.
 

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Wild Kelly said:
Sounds like bullshIt to me -
  • He would get, what, an extra $250k pa ($125k after tax)
  • Gets maybe an extra year or two on his last contract
  • Leaves WA where he has just paid $3.5m for a house in Peppermint Grove which they have just moved into.
  • Takes 2 very young kids away from their grandparents including his own, recently widowed mother.
Can't see it myself.
Click to expand...

This has come from Sydney sniffing around (apparently) Mccartin boys are finished and on the surface listed TB as the natural replacement.

TB unlikely will be asking his management to coerce the move. Instead it will be Sydney to convince him it is his in his best interest.

And then get Eagles across the line with a decent offer (Pick 6 and 22) with a little salary relief.
 
WCEswift said:
Cant imagine sydney would do us dodgy if he does go, our trading relationship with them is solid both teams will come out happy
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We have a good relationship with Sydney for a long time, dating back to the early 2000's. I think for Barrass. Pick 22, 26 & McDonald would suffice, it would be hard to see us getting Sydney's pick 6#. Barrass can be the best defender in the comp one week and just way off the pace the next as well. This is the draft we must nail! could potentially be the 2001 draft that Geelong had that came to fruition 6 years later :)
 
CursoryMercenary said:
We have a good relationship with Sydney for a long time, dating back to the early 2000's. I think for Barrass. Pick 22, 26 & McDonald would suffice, it would be hard to see us getting Sydney's pick 6#. Barrass can be the best defender in the comp one week and just way off the pace the next as well.
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Who cares, **** em. We still owe them for 2005.
I'd ask for TB + #38 : #6 & #22 #25
and then haggle from there.
 
www.espn.com.au

AFL Draft July Power Rankings: Allies forward closing in on Harley Reid

In the July edition of the Draft Power Rankings for 2023, Allies prospects are starting to turn heads, with one player in particular firming as Harley Reid's main No. 1 pick competitor, according to Jasper Chellappah.
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au

Not bad from the new guy that has taken over at ESPN. A few in there I personally disagree with but it gives a good overview for those that aren’t watching the talent pool closely.

Edit: some of the the “plays like” comparisons are pretty out there.
 
I think people on here are wildly over estimating and taking as given what the offer from Sydney would be if Barass asked for a trade at the end of the year. I very much doubt they would be wanting to offer up a top 10 pick for him. We might think he is worth that. But then again we are pretty biased given he plays for us. True market value is probably less than that given he is 28 years old and (as good as he is) is not generally regarded as a top 25 player in the comp. I would say a pick between 12 and 20 is what the market value would be on a theoretical open auction process (i.e. if Barass was put up for auction, all clubs could bid and he would agree to hapilly go there and the highest bid wins). And i would be surprised if Sydney were planning to pay true market value. Just like all clubs trying to entice players their first instinct and plan of action is to come out in front by getting the player they are targeting for less than market value. I bet they have it in their minds to offer up a package of 2nd and 3rd rounders for him. Note that I am not saying that that is fair or what he is worth. But i am saying that Pick 6 or 7 would be overpaying and i am sure Sydney have no intention of overpaying and in fact plan to under pay if they can get things to the stage of getting him to ask for a trade.
 

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CountryLad said:
www.espn.com.au

AFL Draft July Power Rankings: Allies forward closing in on Harley Reid

In the July edition of the Draft Power Rankings for 2023, Allies prospects are starting to turn heads, with one player in particular firming as Harley Reid's main No. 1 pick competitor, according to Jasper Chellappah.
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au

Not bad from the new guy that has taken over at ESPN. A few in there I personally disagree with but it gives a good overview for those that aren’t watching the talent pool closely.

Edit: some of the the “plays like” comparisons are pretty out there.
Click to expand...
No way Caddy is ahead of Curtin and McKercher! He hasn't performed in the champs yet.
Reckon the new guy, might be the sphyx north Melbourne guy who was on here previously. His Caddy write up was identical to what he wrote here, plus the Curnow plays like.
 
Keys said:
Question for Monocle WCE_phil AsterixTheGaul as you’ve seen more of Curtin than most

Assuming we finish last and ignore the Vic media campaign to save Harley Reid and draft him with pick one. If the opportunity then presents to trade our F1 to also draft Curtin should we pull the trigger?
Click to expand...
I think it will be damn expensive to trade up to get him as it would take a pick inside 6 to nab him, and even then, there is no guarantee.

Who in players would be ahead of him and who in clubs would be picking early?

Your assumption is we hold Harley and then want Curtin as well.

Levers that we have are (1) selling our future first, (2) trading Barrass to Sydney and (3) selling a future second and third and packaging it with 19 (this may suit a club needing points in 2024 and depending how high the pick, we might need to give up more).

I do not think Curtin is worth trading our future first as it is likely to be a top 2 pick in 2024 and there will be heaps of NGA and FS prospects in the first round in 2024. I would want something in addition to a top 6 pick in 2023.


There appears no doubt that whoever has pick 1 takes Harley. Where does Curtin therefore likely land?

Next there is a group of 6 that appear pretty even and hence less clear of order. It will be likely more on club needs than absolute "Best Available". I will therefore go by more independent power rankings. For the purpose of this, I am excluding the Suns academy lads.
Rookie Me Central have their latest top 7 as : -
1. Harley - sure set No 1
2. Watson - he is short and will not be a universal No 1 but has the Toby Green feel about him
3. McKercher - he looks to be the best balanced mid in the draft and gets the Zach Merrett comparison
4. Duursma - showing some good form (started slow) and will be a Robbie Gray forward mid
5. Curtain - could be KPP or could be midfielder or could be hybrid and unless clubs know where to play him, he might slide a bit but not far
6. Caddy - kicking heaps of goals but mighty be seen as only a 3rd tall
7. Sanders - charging up the boards as a bloody good midfielder and has gone toe to toe with McKercher as the Allies best mid.

Who has picks in the top 7?
As they stand
1. West Coast
2. Norf
3. Hawks
4. Giants (via Tigers)
5. Carlton
6. Sydney
7. Suns - and it will be sold to the highest bidder as Walters will bid on before 7

If Curtin is viewed as a KPF - I see him as the Jeremy Cameron type high roaming CHF or as a Jake Lever traffic control and playmaker CHB. If you see him as a mid, then he is less of a bull at the contest yet a better skilled Patrick Cripps. I will be watching his return games at Claremont late this year as to where they play him as he looks WAFL ready to be blooded.


Norf could be interested as early as pick 2 for Curtin if they want a KPP. I would not personally want a KPD at pick 2 so I suggest Watson as a dynamic forward (even as a short ar$e) or Caddy as a FF might interest them. Clarkson showed at Hawthorn that he likes getting his talls first whereas Noble prioritised his build with mids first. Keeping pick 1, I would see the price tag for pick 2 as not being worth it. That said, I suspect Norf go McKercher, Caddy or Watson at 2. If Norf get FA compo and get pick 3 as well, then a future first probably gets pick 3 but that is very expensive.

What about the Hawks at 3? The are OK with tall defenders unless they lose faith in Grainger Barrass (looking more likely). Their pure midfield looks pretty solid and if I was looking for a best fit for their list it would be Duursma. I cannot see Hawks going Curtin at 3. I do not think they would be willing to sell pick 3 as their next pick is at 36 and they are not wanting to delay the rebuild. They also have Will McCabe as a NGA and at 197, he is more of a KPP at a much cheaper price.

Giants at 4 - Curtin would be a decent pick for them and I see them pulling the trigger if he is there. They do not need the big midfield unit as they have Tom Green. That said, would they sell pick 4? They have mentioned they want less prima donnas at the top end as they get ahead of themselves and demand too high a 3rd year salary. We could probably look trading pick 19 and a future second and future third and something. I do not have a great handle on GWS's NGA in 2024. If they lose Himmelberg, could they trade for Barrass to partner Taylor and 4 plus we pay part of TB's salary might just do it.

Would Carlton at pick 5 be interested in Curtin. Maybe. I think they would be keen on both Duursma and Sanders. I do not think they would go Caddy if he dropped as they are stacked in that department and have huge $$ in their cap with Curnoe and McKay. If I was at the Blues, I would consider offers to slide back so doggies and Melbourne holding later 2 R1 picks might be interested in trading up.



So a long answer - let us see how Curtin goes post carnival and if he delivers at the Claremont WALF team. I future first alone seems too much. It would need to include something decent coming back. If he starts to slide on draft night and gets past pick 7, then there are other options.
 
Deplorable trumpster said:
I think people on here are wildly over estimating and taking as given what the offer from Sydney would be if Barass asked for a trade at the end of the year. I very much doubt they would be wanting to offer up a top 10 pick for him. We might think he is worth that. But then again we are pretty biased given he plays for us. True market value is probably less than that given he is 28 years old and (as good as he is) is not generally regarded as a top 25 player in the comp. I would say a pick between 12 and 20 is what the market value would be on a theoretical open auction process (i.e. if Barass was put up for auction, all clubs could bid and he would agree to hapilly go there and the highest bid wins). And i would be surprised if Sydney were planning to pay true market value. Just like all clubs trying to entice players their first instinct and plan of action is to come out in front by getting the player they are targeting for less than market value. I bet they have it in their minds to offer up a package of 2nd and 3rd rounders for him. Note that I am not saying that that is fair or what he is worth. But i am saying that Pick 6 or 7 would be overpaying and i am sure Sydney have no intention of overpaying and in fact plan to under pay if they can get things to the stage of getting him to ask for a trade.
Click to expand...
He's on a 4-year contract. Regardless as to whether he asks to leave or not, he'll be held to it if the offer is too low.
 
How hilariously arrogant are Richmond. After tapping up Prestia and screwring them over wih Tom Lynch, they want Gold Coast to do them a favour and gift them their first rounder for 2023.

As if Gold Coast will deal with Richmond. Those plonkers have no idea.

I think we have the best package to offer Gold Coast for their first rounder, especially if in any Barass trade we can improve our pick 19 and 38 to pick 22 and 25 and to then trade pick 22, 25, 36 (2100 odd points) for pick 7 and 56 (1830 points). That would leave us wth

Pick 1,6,7, 56 and 58

Looks okay to me

I feel like we can probably get a pick 34 from Melbourne for a future 3rd rounder from us also given Demons are a bit pick heavy this year too mind you
 
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Deplorable trumpster said:
I think people on here are wildly over estimating and taking as given what the offer from Sydney would be if Barass asked for a trade at the end of the year. I very much doubt they would be wanting to offer up a top 10 pick for him. We might think he is worth that. But then again we are pretty biased given he plays for us. True market value is probably less than that given he is 28 years old and (as good as he is) is not generally regarded as a top 25 player in the comp. I would say a pick between 12 and 20 is what the market value would be on a theoretical open auction process (i.e. if Barass was put up for auction, all clubs could bid and he would agree to hapilly go there and the highest bid wins). And i would be surprised if Sydney were planning to pay true market value. Just like all clubs trying to entice players their first instinct and plan of action is to come out in front by getting the player they are targeting for less than market value. I bet they have it in their minds to offer up a package of 2nd and 3rd rounders for him. Note that I am not saying that that is fair or what he is worth. But i am saying that Pick 6 or 7 would be overpaying and i am sure Sydney have no intention of overpaying and in fact plan to under pay if they can get things to the stage of getting him to ask for a trade.
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1) I disagree with your valuation of Barrass - if he is only a middling player then why are they chasing him so hard - he is a big upgrade on anything they currently have, F&B, borderline AA

2) If they were to offer second and third round picks then they should be rejected instantly without a second thought - he is worth far more to WCE as a player than second round picks - WC hold the whip hand as he is contracted - to sell one of our most valuable players for such a paltry return would be negligence - this bringing up his age is a false argument - he is currently 27, has not suffered major injuries and has a good 4 or 5 years left if not more

I would be ropeable if the club agreed to anything like you are suggesting, would be further evidence that those involved needed to be shown the door
 
Deplorable trumpster said:
I think people on here are wildly over estimating and taking as given what the offer from Sydney would be if Barass asked for a trade at the end of the year. I very much doubt they would be wanting to offer up a top 10 pick for him. We might think he is worth that. But then again we are pretty biased given he plays for us. True market value is probably less than that given he is 28 years old and (as good as he is) is not generally regarded as a top 25 player in the comp. I would say a pick between 12 and 20 is what the market value would be on a theoretical open auction process (i.e. if Barass was put up for auction, all clubs could bid and he would agree to hapilly go there and the highest bid wins). And i would be surprised if Sydney were planning to pay true market value. Just like all clubs trying to entice players their first instinct and plan of action is to come out in front by getting the player they are targeting for less than market value. I bet they have it in their minds to offer up a package of 2nd and 3rd rounders for him. Note that I am not saying that that is fair or what he is worth. But i am saying that Pick 6 or 7 would be overpaying and i am sure Sydney have no intention of overpaying and in fact plan to under pay if they can get things to the stage of getting him to ask for a trade.
Click to expand...

He's contracted, not only do they have to pay "market value" they have to pay overs or we simply won't trade him

I know we havent been the toughest negotiaters at the trade table, but im pretty confident they'll get a firm answer of no with an offer of 2nd and 3rd rounders
 
AsterixTheGaul said:
I think it will be damn expensive to trade up to get him as it would take a pick inside 6 to nab him, and even then, there is no guarantee.

Who in players would be ahead of him and who in clubs would be picking early?

Your assumption is we hold Harley and then want Curtin as well.

Levers that we have are (1) selling our future first, (2) trading Barrass to Sydney and (3) selling a future second and third and packaging it with 19 (this may suit a club needing points in 2024 and depending how high the pick, we might need to give up more).

I do not think Curtin is worth trading our future first as it is likely to be a top 2 pick in 2024 and there will be heaps of NGA and FS prospects in the first round in 2024. I would want something in addition to a top 6 pick in 2023.


There appears no doubt that whoever has pick 1 takes Harley. Where does Curtin therefore likely land?

Next there is a group of 6 that appear pretty even and hence less clear of order. It will be likely more on club needs than absolute "Best Available". I will therefore go by more independent power rankings. For the purpose of this, I am excluding the Suns academy lads.
Rookie Me Central have their latest top 7 as : -
1. Harley - sure set No 1
2. Watson - he is short and will not be a universal No 1 but has the Toby Green feel about him
3. McKercher - he looks to be the best balanced mid in the draft and gets the Zach Merrett comparison
4. Duursma - showing some good form (started slow) and will be a Robbie Gray forward mid
5. Curtain - could be KPP or could be midfielder or could be hybrid and unless clubs know where to play him, he might slide a bit but not far
6. Caddy - kicking heaps of goals but mighty be seen as only a 3rd tall
7. Sanders - charging up the boards as a bloody good midfielder and has gone toe to toe with McKercher as the Allies best mid.

Who has picks in the top 7?
As they stand
1. West Coast
2. Norf
3. Hawks
4. Giants (via Tigers)
5. Carlton
6. Sydney
7. Suns - and it will be sold to the highest bidder as Walters will bid on before 7

If Curtin is viewed as a KPF - I see him as the Jeremy Cameron type high roaming CHF or as a Jake Lever traffic control and playmaker CHB. If you see him as a mid, then he is less of a bull at the contest yet a better skilled Patrick Cripps. I will be watching his return games at Claremont late this year as to where they play him as he looks WAFL ready to be blooded.


Norf could be interested as early as pick 2 for Curtin if they want a KPP. I would not personally want a KPD at pick 2 so I suggest Watson as a dynamic forward (even as a short ar$e) or Caddy as a FF might interest them. Clarkson showed at Hawthorn that he likes getting his talls first whereas Noble prioritised his build with mids first. Keeping pick 1, I would see the price tag for pick 2 as not being worth it. That said, I suspect Norf go McKercher, Caddy or Watson at 2. If Norf get FA compo and get pick 3 as well, then a future first probably gets pick 3 but that is very expensive.

What about the Hawks at 3? The are OK with tall defenders unless they lose faith in Grainger Barrass (looking more likely). Their pure midfield looks pretty solid and if I was looking for a best fit for their list it would be Duursma. I cannot see Hawks going Curtin at 3. I do not think they would be willing to sell pick 3 as their next pick is at 36 and they are not wanting to delay the rebuild. They also have Will McCabe as a NGA and at 197, he is more of a KPP at a much cheaper price.

Giants at 4 - Curtin would be a decent pick for them and I see them pulling the trigger if he is there. They do not need the big midfield unit as they have Tom Green. That said, would they sell pick 4? They have mentioned they want less prima donnas at the top end as they get ahead of themselves and demand too high a 3rd year salary. We could probably look trading pick 19 and a future second and future third and something. I do not have a great handle on GWS's NGA in 2024. If they lose Himmelberg, could they trade for Barrass to partner Taylor and 4 plus we pay part of TB's salary might just do it.

Would Carlton at pick 5 be interested in Curtin. Maybe. I think they would be keen on both Duursma and Sanders. I do not think they would go Caddy if he dropped as they are stacked in that department and have huge $$ in their cap with Curnoe and McKay. If I was at the Blues, I would consider offers to slide back so doggies and Melbourne holding later 2 R1 picks might be interested in trading up.



So a long answer - let us see how Curtin goes post carnival and if he delivers at the Claremont WALF team. I future first alone seems too much. It would need to include something decent coming back. If he starts to slide on draft night and gets past pick 7, then there are other options.
Click to expand...
Popping in as a Blues man and an avid fan of the draft, reckon our order for selections would be:

Reid - Obviously

Mckercher - We have everything in our midfield but a pacey runner to go with Walsh, currently imbalanced in that regard. We desperately need more run and footskills in our team and he's probably the best player for that along with Wilson.

Watson - Have had the worst small fwds in the comp for half a decade

Curtin - Rumours Lewis Young and Weitering don't get on, Young been dropped a few times this year and Weitering been notably better without him. Not sure what the go is with the two of them but could be someone we look at given his obvious talent.

Caddy - In need of a 3rd option up forward as we're likely to lose TDK and Silvagni

Duursma - Ideally he's the best option for us in this draft as a fast mid/fwd with great kicking skills but he just hasn't performed in the champs imo.

Sanders - Can't see us selecting him. We are stacked for big bulky inside mids and although a good player he wouldn't help our midfield at all.



Curtin in my opinion goes to either North or Hawthorn but if he slips through to us I reckon we take him. Freo not looking likely to win too many more games this year if they lose to us this weekend which would shoot Melbourne into top 5 pick calculations. I think if Mckercher is gone they'd take him too.
No way he gets past Sydney though if they finish low though, they're desperate for KPD.
 
Goroyals22 said:
And getting a bloke that is so bad Mitchell hasn’t picked him despite having a spot for a tall defender most of the year and has been going so badly in the vfl he has had to be moved forward in the past couple of weeks… he is a complete potato
Click to expand...
maybe he's just homesick and not enjoying footy in Melb ..Players just don't lose their ability he's marking and intercepting was elite ..
 
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