List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players -

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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[bh90210fan]

The way I see it Hewett has the potential to be a Joel Selwood, whereas Wardlaw can potentially reach Dangerfield levels with his power and explosiveness. You can’t lose with either of them but I’m grabbing Wardlaw if we get the chance.

 

[Chris_6678]

How come Wardlow didn’t play?

 

[SumaGodCoach]

How come Wardlow didn’t play?

Hammie

 

[Chump Change]

I'd like to see that last 14 seconds again in Swans v Bombers. From the throw in to the goal, seemed a lot longer than 14 seconds.

 

[Obeanie1]

No. You're just not understanding my point.

For the 100th time, my point is this:

You don't pick a KPD with a top 10 pick. Why? Because nearly all the game's top KPDs come from late picks. Meaning: you don't have to spend a top 10 pick to find a gun KPD. Conversely, it's much harder to find a midfield superstar or KPD outside the 4 or top 7, or whatever.

Does that mean missing out on Weitering? Yes. It's a pure numbers game and you will miss out on some gun players, but the law of averages says that despite missing out on some guns, you're going to get a better harvest.

Similarly goes for mids who don't have good disposal. Don't pick them. That means you always miss on Fyfe and Cripps. But you also miss on Powell-Pepper and a whole host of other players who are severely limited by poor disposal.

What you're doing is saying, "hey, now we know how all the players turned out, you should pick this player in this draft, this player in that other draft etc". We don't have the benefit of hindsight before the draft. It's easy after the fact to say, "of course, you'd always take Weitering". But before the draft (when you don't know the outcome of the players' real ability) - all you know is to get a KPD that you can find in other drafts at a much later pick, you're giving up a high chance to draft the player that really does make a difference - the superstar mid or the superstar KPF. Essentially, you're picking players on how good you speculate they will be, and ignoring the intelligence at your disposal. That's dumb.

I like Busslinger. I think he'll be a gun. But there's absolutely no chance I would spend a top 3 pick on him. At the moment, Ashcroft, Warlord, Hewitt, Sheezle. Hewitt may end up a Powell-Pepper, but I'm still taking the punt on him.

Ignore intelligence.

Follow the averages!

Got it

But what if your intelligence indicates the sample of players in a draft is outside the bell curve?

Do we still ignore the intelligence?

 

[Yeo_Check_Out_ma_Flow]

And there you may have described why we would be interested.

We dont know who is leaving / retiring.

One more bad hammie Shuey is gone. That might happen anyway.

Yeo to halfback isnt silly as he gets older.

We let Witherden go as a depth player he needs to be more accountable.

Gaff posible trade with uspaying some salary.

Joyce, Naish, Jackson, Winder, Petruccelle, Trew moved on.

From reports of the Beagles its almost toxic the culture. Maybe we have identified combative players who will help rebuild our culture and look after all the kids we are about to draft.

Which reports regarding the Beagles would you be referring to specifically?

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[Obeanie1]

Hewitt looked class and would be happy using our first on him. If we get pick 2 i could see us trading down as doubtful he goes top 2-3.

1 Ashcroft
2 Wardlaw
3 Sheezle
4 Phillipou
5 Hewett

If we traded down to 5

Anyone unhappy if one of the other 4 slide to 5?

 

[Obeanie1]

Which reports regarding the Beagles would you be referring to specifically?

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In the WAFL thread.

Go have a read.

 

[Chump Change]

Ignore intelligence.

Follow the averages!

Got it

But what if your intelligence indicates the sample of players in a draft is outside the bell curve?

Do we still ignore the intelligence?

You need to speak in English, because that is nothing but ambiguous mumbo jumbo.

You're getting 1 example of one player and hanging your hat it. That's called confirmation bias.

It might be best to do it this way:

Dusty, Bont, Oliver, Petracca etc.

Where are we going to get ours from?

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Thanks Sydney, very cool! Top 2 pick here we come.

 

[Obeanie1]

Which reports regarding the Beagles would you be referring to specifically?

On SM-N985F using BigFooty.com mobile appt

Which reports regarding the Beagles would you be referring to specifically?

On SM-N985F using BigFooty.com mobile app

It was regarding the change room interaction between teams and support staff. Players behaviour and attitudes towards other players and officials

One of the regulars posted their experience. It wasnt a good read / look for the club and the current culture.

 

[dkalphy]

1 Ashcroft
2 Wardlaw
3 Sheezle
4 Phillipou
5 Hewett

If we traded down to 5

Anyone unhappy if one of the other 4 slide to 5?

Hey assuming Ashcroft is gone, between the 2-5 players do they have genuine A grade potential? I like Phillipou based on the fact that he's 192cm and is a year younger than everyone else

 

[new breed]

Hewett would be a good option , local player .
We add Culley , Hewett hopefully Trew , Hough and a few other players continue an upward spiral .

Nic Martin would have helped ....spilt milk though !!

 

[dajesmac]

Does anyone reckon we should apply a more statistical approach to drafts?

 

[Obeanie1]

You need to speak in English, because that is nothing but ambiguous mumbo jumbo.

You're getting 1 example of one player and hanging your hat it. That's called confirmation bias.

It might be best to do it this way:

Dusty, Bont, Oliver, Petracca etc.

Where are we going to get ours from?

Its statistics terminology.

And you inferred earlier my point was 'dumb'.

You are basing your argument on averages are you not? And you dont understand what is the sample space or what a bell curve is?

How about standard deviation from the average?

The issue from a statistical view point is your sample space is too small to make the judgements your are on how to draft.

Your method is too simple.

 

[Chump Change]

Does anyone reckon we should apply a more statistical approach to drafts?

If you want to have a crack, feel free to quote me direct.

 

[Yeo_Check_Out_ma_Flow]

In the WAFL thread.

Go have a read.

I do read the WAFL thread, and I think you might be referring to anecdotal evidence from a poster who was at one of the games and gave his own interpretation of what wad going on, based purely from what he saw on the bench and a bit on the field?

I'm not entirely sure that is enough for me to consider the Beagles culture to be toxic..I mean, they've not exactly had a clean run at things and even had to forfeit a game earlier in the season due to player availability. We just absolutely smashed Subiaco too...I think it's all circumstantial to be honest.

My two cents, but yeah. I personally wouldn't be calling the culture toxic based on some anecdotal evidence on a footy forum.

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[dkalphy]

Does the top 5 prospects in this draft stack up with previous drafts?

 

[Chump Change]

Its statistics terminology.

And you inferred earlier my point was 'dumb'.

You are basing your argument on averages are you not? And you dont understand what is the sample space or what a bell curve is?

How about standard deviation from the average?

The issue from a statistical view point is your sample space is too small to make the judgements your are on how to draft.

I'm across bell curves and SD. The problem is that you are deciding who is at the edge of the bell curve before they start their career.

Interesting that you post your top 5 and Busslinger isn't in it? What is the point of this conversation? Sounds like you just want to have an argument? Or do you in fact want to take him with our top pick?

And;

Bont, Dust, Oliver etc.

Where are we going to get ours?

 

[briztoon]

Does anyone reckon we should apply a more statistical approach to drafts?

USA draft based sports do, to an extent.

It’s basically a combination of talent identification, biometrics (that’s the wrong term, I’ve forgotten the correct term), and a statistical approach on the type of players to draft where, and where to trade picks in the draft.

 

[briztoon]

Does the top 5 prospects in this draft stack up with previous drafts?

2017 draft.

 

[Chump Change]

2017 draft.

Cameron Rayner​

Andrew Brayshaw​

Paddy Dow​

Luke Davies-Uniacke​

Adam Cerra​

Jaidyn Stephenson​

Hunter Clark​

Nick Coffield​

Aaron Naughton​

Lochie O'Brien​

Aiden Bonar​

Darcy Fogarty​

Jarrod Brander​

 

[dkalphy]

2017 draft.

Thats bad...

 

[Goroyals22]

Yeah I dunno, to be honest it doesn't really anger me or anything, but I'd just prefer he left it alone as it's not really his role. I think it's just remnants of the Brander commentary that makes me think he puts his nose where he probably shouldn't.

Why are you still crying about losing a bloke who cant get a game with a side that has sacked its coach?

 

[mattyc75]

I think if we draft busslinger at our first then we are preparing for a long time down the bottom.
Our midfield is our biggest worry by a long shot so you'd think if the team wanted to work their way up the ladder reasonably quick as far as rebuilds go we'd draft a mid or 3 of different varieties not just inside mids
I understand its hilarious to bait chumpy but hes bang on i think

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