Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[pastmyprimus]

pastmyprimus you have talked about more data being made available to the public. Here is an example in Germany of a daily report produced by the Robert Koch Institute. I have been looking at it every 2-4 weeks since late May and it has gone from about 5 pages to 13 pages.

The Robert Koch Institute seems to be a bit like the Peter Doherty Institute in Melbourne but has responsibility for data reporting for Germany. Germany has started a second wave with a 1,000 daily cases or so for the last 5 weeks or so but deaths have been maintained at about 5 a day over that period.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-08-25-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

From page 5 of 13.
Clinical aspects
Information on symptoms is available for 195,563 (83%) of the notified cases. Commonly reported symptoms were cough (45%), fever (38%), rhinorrhoea (20%) and sore throat (19%). Pneumonia was reported in 5,418 cases (3%). Since calendar week 17, cases are reported to the RKI as a distinct COVID19 surveillance category. Since then, ageusia and anosmia can also be entered as symptoms. At least one of these two symptoms was reported in 7,798 of 51,222 cases (15%). Hospitalisation was reported for 32,045 (16%) of 203,098 COVID-19 cases with information on hospitalisation status. Approximately 209,300 people have recovered from their COVID-19 infection. Since the exact date of recovery is unknown in most cases, an algorithm was developed to estimate this number.

Here is the page where you can download the English version of the daily report.

RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - ARE-Wochenbericht, Pandemieradar, frühere COVID-19-Wochenberichte

Das RKI veröffentlicht arbeitstäglich einen Lagebericht mit einer detaillierten Analyse der COVID-19-Meldedaten.

www.rki.de

The detail of the data is one thing but it's good to see that the report comes with analysis written by an epidemiologist.

 

[pastmyprimus]

I think our chances of staging the GF are minimal. The strong favourite is Queensland. I think the AFL is using SA and WA too to extract a better deal from Queensland. Look Queensland, SA has said no 14 day quarantine period for key AFL figures - you better match that.

Puts the AFL in a good position. Having a bunch of states compete for the rights to stage the GF. Pity the states don't work together behind the scenes to rule out conditions that are "unacceptable"

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

That of course implies that Gillan will be fully masked and wearing the protective clothing that I noticed somebody visiting from Victoria at the Flinders Medical was wearing the other day while she was here visiting her dying father. She also had a police escort back to the Pullman where she and her family are staying. Gillan deserves no better.

 

[Interstater]

I think our chances of staging the GF are minimal. The strong favourite is Queensland. I think the AFL is using SA and WA too to extract a better deal from Queensland. Look Queensland, SA has said no 14 day quarantine period for key AFL figures - you better match that.

Puts the AFL in a good position. Having a bunch of states compete for the rights to stage the GF. Pity the states don't work together behind the scenes to rule out conditions that are "unacceptable"

I find it really hard to believe that a state with an election soon with a sitting Labor leader is going to get a free kick from the AFL.

But maybe this one time its bigger than politics.

Btw:

 

[raptalia]

Abbott wins FDA approval of $5, 15-minute COVID test

Abbott wins FDA approval of $5, 15-minute COVID test (NYSE:ABT)

Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) +6.5% after-hours following news that the FDA granted emergency use authorization for the company's 15-minute COVID-19 test...

seekingalpha.com

This will help to open up international travel or interstate travel for Australians.

If you have got COVID you have got COVID knowing that fact in 15 minutes instead of 3 days will not alter that fact. The COVID-19 incubation period is still 1 to 4 days and as we have seen you can test negative when you step off the plane then test positive 12 days later. A faster test result alters nothing as far as travel is concerned.

This test has real advantages as far as testing the general population goes but it isn't going to change the way the virus acts.

 

[Forzaport]

If you have got COVID you have got COVID knowing that fact in 15 minutes instead of 3 days will not alter that fact. The COVID-19 incubation period is still 1 to 4 days and as we have seen you can test negative when you step off the plane then test positive 12 days later. A faster test result alters nothing as far as travel is concerned.

This test has real advantages as far as testing the general population goes but it isn't going to change the way the virus acts.

You may want to think about this a little more.

 

[raptalia]

You may want to think about this a little more.

What is to think about, the time the test takes makes no difference to the incubation period of the virus. Unless the test alters the COVID-19 incubation period travel restrictions will still be necessary. As I posted there are people returning to Australia who are testing positive 12 days into quarantine and a 15 minute test turn around isn't going to alter that fact. It is for that reason we have travel restrictions not the time it takes to get a test result.

Again, I am not criticising the development of a 15 minute test but I do not see how it will alter the need to quarantine people returning from COVID-19 hot spots or the need to restrict travel to hot spots. The only thing that will change the game is an agent that alters the virus itself such as a vaccine.

 

[raptalia]

I think our chances of staging the GF are minimal. The strong favourite is Queensland. I think the AFL is using SA and WA too to extract a better deal from Queensland. Look Queensland, SA has said no 14 day quarantine period for key AFL figures - you better match that.

Puts the AFL in a good position. Having a bunch of states compete for the rights to stage the GF. Pity the states don't work together behind the scenes to rule out conditions that are "unacceptable"

Yes, I would not be surprised if the decision has all ready been made and allowing South Australia to put in a submission is simply Gill's way of covering his arse while looking objective in the process. SA probably cooked the goose a few months back when Marshall blocked FIFO arrangements with the AFL. In the meantime Queensland came to the party and saved the AFL's bacon. I reckon Gill will repay Queensland.

SA and WA may get a Semi and/or a Prelim each as a sweetener with the GF to be staged at the Gabba.

It interesting that Marshall, Spurrier and Stevens now think no one from AFL House is capable of catching the virus and carrying it into SA.

 

[OneGreatClub]

What is to think about, the time the test takes makes no difference to the incubation period of the virus. Unless the test alters the COVID-19 incubation period travel restrictions will still be necessary. As I posted there are people returning to Australia who are testing positive 12 days into quarantine and a 15 minute test turn around isn't going to alter that fact. It is for that reason we have travel restrictions not the time it takes to get a test result.

Again, I am not criticising the development of a 15 minute test but I do not see how it will alter the need to quarantine people returning from COVID-19 hot spots or the need to restrict travel to hot spots. The only thing that will change the game is an agent that alters the virus itself such as a vaccine.

The quarantining should continue of course but the quick turnaround test could be useful in other situations in the general community.
Say a clear test is required to return to work when you have taken a day off with a cold..the turnaround could mean less sick leave hours lost etc. I had to wait in frustration for 3 days for a test result a few weeks back and it leaves you and your employer in limbo.

 

[MaxPowa]

Yes, I would not be surprised if the decision has all ready been made and allowing South Australia to put in a submission is simply Gill's way of covering his arse while looking objective in the process. SA probably cooked the goose a few months back when Marshall blocked FIFO arrangements with the AFL. In the meantime Queensland came to the party and saved the AFL's bacon. I reckon Gill will repay Queensland.

SA and WA may get a Semi and/or a Prelim each as a sweetener with the GF to be staged at the Gabba.

It interesting that Marshall, Spurrier and Stevens now think no one from AFL House is capable of catching the virus and carrying it into SA.

I'm not as fussed about exemptions for senior AFL figures. The reality is with enough money you can ensure little to no risk - E.g. quarantine in Vic for two weeks, private jet, transport, limit movement at stadium to a designated room, fly out after the match/ stay at the stadium hotel and fly out the next morning. The arrangements are key but definitely could be done. If that is the price to pay for holding a GF so be it.

 

[raptalia]

The quarantining should continue of course but the quick turnaround test could be useful in other situations in the general community.
Say a clear test is required to return to work when you have taken a day off with a cold..the turnaround could mean less sick leave hours lost etc. I had to wait in frustration for 3 days for a test result a few weeks back and it leaves you and your employer in limbo.

Yes good point, that is one advantage of a 15 minute test. I can also see that it will be useful in countries with large numbers of tests to get through. In California they are doing 150,000 tests per day and have just signed a deal that will increase their testing capacity to a staggering 250,000 tests per day. The advantage with the 15 minute test is that it can be done through agencies such as pharmacies thus avoiding the log jam caused by channeling thousands of tests through a couple of labs.

As I understand it the 15 minute Abbott test could also be marketed as a DIY kit similar to a pregnancy test. There maybe problems with that as there is no guarantee the subject would test themselves properly or that they would pass on the details of a positive result. As I see it the test would still have to be performed by an accredited agent. Then again the prospect of infected people going into shopping centres to get tested at a pharmacy also has it's problems.

 

[pastmyprimus]

113 new cases and 12 deaths in the past 24 hours for Victoria. Professor Michael McCarthy from the University of Melbourne expects cases to be around 70 a day by next Friday. I think new case numbers falling to 2 digits will give Victorians a small pyschological boost knowing the state is on track to lift restrictions by mid September.

Professor McCarthy said he hopes that Victoria will be "well and truly" recording fewer than 50 cases a day by the end of stage four lockdown on September 13. However, he said it will be hard to get into single digits, because the exponential decline of the virus is much slower than exponential growth.

"It's very unfair isn't it ... things get bad quickly, but things don't get good as fast," Professor McCarthy said.

"Once we get to those small numbers it's going to be very hard to get larger declines."

New cases could drop below 100 over weekend - Sutton

The state has recorded 113 new cases in the past 24 hours - the same number as yesterday - and the equal lowest since July 5, when 74 cases were reported.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Forzaport]

What is to think about, the time the test takes makes no difference to the incubation period of the virus. Unless the test alters the COVID-19 incubation period travel restrictions will still be necessary. As I posted there are people returning to Australia who are testing positive 12 days into quarantine and a 15 minute test turn around isn't going to alter that fact. It is for that reason we have travel restrictions not the time it takes to get a test result.

Again, I am not criticising the development of a 15 minute test but I do not see how it will alter the need to quarantine people returning from COVID-19 hot spots or the need to restrict travel to hot spots. The only thing that will change the game is an agent that alters the virus itself such as a vaccine.

Why do you believe the incubation period is relevant? The incubation period is simply the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms. An individual can be infectious up to 48 hours prior to the onset of symptoms and is most often no longer considered infectious once they feel well and return a negative test result.

If you take a 15 minute test prior to boarding a flight and return a negative result, the odds of you being infectious on the flight are somewhere near zero. On the flip slide, people who return a positive result can be identified and isolated prior to boarding the flight. This creates a mechanism to actively prevent the transmission of the virus across state lines and internationally while still allowing travel. We will literally have the capability to filter out infectious people just before they board a flight.

A cheap and quick test allows daily testing and eliminates the need for precautionary quarantine. Only those with a positive result will need to isolate.

 

[raptalia]

Why do you believe the incubation period is relevant? The incubation period is simply the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms. An individual can be infectious up to 48 hours prior to the onset of symptoms and is most often no longer considered infectious once they feel well and return a negative test result.

If you take a 15 minute test prior to boarding a flight and return a negative result, the odds of you being infectious on the flight are somewhere near zero. On the flip slide, people who return a positive result can be identified and isolated prior to boarding the flight. This creates a mechanism to actively prevent the transmission of the virus across state lines and internationally while still allowing travel. We will literally have the capability to filter out infectious people just before they board a flight.

A cheap and quick test allows daily testing and eliminates the need for precautionary quarantine. Only those with a positive result will need to isolate.

Do you think this is the first 15 minute test? We had one as early as May but it proved ineffective, hopefully this one will work. Based on past attempts I think we will be stuck with quarantine until we get a vaccine.

What Is the Difference Between COVID-19 Antigen and Antibody Test?

An antigen test detects antigens, which is a protein the immune system makes antibodies in response to. Antigens are found on viruses like those that cause COVID.

www.health.com

In the US the FDA has approved the kit but it has to be administered by a medical practitioner such as a doctor or a nurse. There is no going home and testing yourself daily and the emphasis seems to be on getting people back to work and school sooner rather than opening the boarding gates.

 

[Andre]

Why do you believe the incubation period is relevant? The incubation period is simply the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms. An individual can be infectious up to 48 hours prior to the onset of symptoms and is most often no longer considered infectious once they feel well and return a negative test result.

If you take a 15 minute test prior to boarding a flight and return a negative result, the odds of you being infectious on the flight are somewhere near zero. On the flip slide, people who return a positive result can be identified and isolated prior to boarding the flight. This creates a mechanism to actively prevent the transmission of the virus across state lines and internationally while still allowing travel. We will literally have the capability to filter out infectious people just before they board a flight.

A cheap and quick test allows daily testing and eliminates the need for precautionary quarantine. Only those with a positive result will need to isolate.

Yes. A cheap 15 minute test could be a pre-condition of traveling on planes, long distance train travel, truckies crossing borders, entering nursing homes or hospitals (workers or visitors). Sure it's not infallible, but it'd find most cases already out there and help stop any new clusters. Obviously those coming into the country (from other countries not similarly doing fairly well) would require more extensive quarantine / testing, but cheap and fast testing goes hand in hand with a vaccine and improved treatment, for getting the world back to something normal.

 

[raptalia]

Another 12 locally acquired cases in NSW today. That is 47 cases in the past week, not all locally acquired of course but NSW has the look of a ticking bomb and Berejiklian isn't showing signs that she is handling hotel quarantine all that well.

 

[Forzaport]

Do you think this is the first 15 minute test? We had one as early as May but it proved ineffective, hopefully this one will work. Based on past attempts I think we will be stuck with quarantine until we get a vaccine.

What Is the Difference Between COVID-19 Antigen and Antibody Test?

An antigen test detects antigens, which is a protein the immune system makes antibodies in response to. Antigens are found on viruses like those that cause COVID.

www.health.com

In the US the FDA has approved the kit but it has to be administered by a medical practitioner such as a doctor or a nurse. There is no going home and testing yourself daily and the emphasis seems to be on getting people back to work and school sooner rather than opening the boarding gates.

This specific test claims 97.1% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity which is well within acceptable limits. The test will initially be delivered by health professionals in point-of-care settings that is true but how hard is it to set up a mobile clinic with a nurse at an airport? The test will provide assurance so all sectors of the economy can return to normal.

Eventually, this type of test will likely be an off-the-shelf DIY item at your local pharmacy, like a pregnancy test.

 

[Capital Power]

This specific test claims 97.1% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity which is well within acceptable limits. The test will initially be delivered by health professionals in point-of-care settings that is true but how hard is it to set up a mobile clinic with a nurse at an airport? The test will provide assurance so all sectors of the economy can return to normal.

Eventually, this type of test will likely be an off-the-shelf DIY item at your local pharmacy, like a pregnancy test.

And with the consequences of a positive almost as life changing .

 

[Interstater]

If we can just keep the high priest from slogan bullying us into opening the borders too soon we may be in a good place in the near future.

I wouldn't risk a grand final in QLD or WA though

 

[Jojay]

Could've sworn I saw a group of the swannies boys taking a stroll this arvo in the cbd...

Would that be right? Wouldn't they need to be social distancing/ isolating or some such?

 

[raptalia]

Headlines in today's press putting a plug in for the local COVID vaccine. Hot on the heels of the QU announcement earlier this week the Flinders Uni vaccine will begin Phase 3 trials in October and if successful could be ready early in 2021. The international trials will involve testing on 40,000 people.

The only dampener on the Flinders Uni project is a lack of funds. Apparently Morrison has thrown Government money at the Queensland University project but not much at the Flinders project. Petrovsky needs a backer to run his trial.

No Cookies | The Advertiser

No Cookies

www.adelaidenow.com.au

With an unprecedented effort and around 150 potential vaccines across the globe you would hope that one will prove effective. One is enough but more than one would be even better as any vaccine needs an 80% success rate to halt the spread of COVID-19.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Headlines in today's press putting a plug in for the local COVID vaccine. Hot on the heels of the QU announcement earlier this week the Flinders Uni vaccine will begin Phase 3 trials in October and if successful could be ready early in 2021. The international trials will involve testing on 40,000 people.

The only dampener on the Flinders Uni project is a lack of funds. Apparently Morrison has thrown Government money at the Queensland University project but not much at the Flinders project. Petrovsky needs a backer to run his trial.

No Cookies | The Advertiser

No Cookies

www.adelaidenow.com.au

With an unprecedented effort and around 150 potential vaccines across the globe you would hope that one will prove effective. One is enough but more than one would be even better as any vaccine needs an 80% success rate to halt the spread of COVID-19.

FU Morrisson, if ever a state needed some hope it is SA . Throw some money our way for once ( and I don’t mean to the Crows parklands bid)

 

[raptalia]

A smart watch that can detect COVID-19 symptoms. Yeah, right.

How your Fitbit or Apple Watch may be able to detect COVID-19, even before symptoms start

Changes in heart rate, respiratory rate, and other biometrics measured constantly by the devices may flag early stages of infection

winnipegsun.com

Of course changes in heart rate, temperature and respiratory rate might also mean a hundred other things. A smart watch may have some application in detecting asymptomatic people but it might also be a waste of effort.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

Could've sworn I saw a group of the swannies boys taking a stroll this arvo in the cbd...

Would that be right? Wouldn't they need to be social distancing/ isolating or some such?

Think the rule is that they are ok as long as they don’t get a haircut or live with Billy Frampton.

 

[Interstater]

Think the rule is that they are ok as long as they don’t get a haircut or live with Billy Frampton.

Or get interviewed by Theo Dogsbody