Okay Freo's First Round Draft Pick fans, here's where we stand.
This is the ladder:
Here's Freo's schedule:
Bris (H)
WC (A)
Port (H)
Haw (A)
And here's the schedule for the 6 teams above Freo:
Geelong:
Port (H)
Coll (A)
St. K (A)
WB (H)
Sydney:
GWS (A)
GC (H)
Adel (A)
Melb (H)
Richmond:
WB (A)
St. K (A)
NM (H)
Port (A)
Adelaide:
GC (H)
Bris (A)
Syd (H)
WC (A)
Essendon:
WC (H)
NM (A)
GWS (A)
Coll (H)
Gold Coast:
Adel (A)
Syd (A)
Carl (H)
NM (A)
There are three major obstacles to Freo climbing the ladder. Namely:
If we mark down all the WC and NM games as wins for the respective teams, then if Freo win 2 of their remaining 4 games, then the absolute highest they can finish is 13th, giving us pick 6. This, however, would depend on both:
If neither of these things happen, then 2 wins will see Freo finish 15th and give us pick 4.
This basically means that Freo likely need to win 3 of their last 4 games to deny us pick 4, at which point there are too many different permutations to calculate and it becomes impossible to say where our pick will end up. The dark horse here to watch out for is Geelong, who have a really tough run home and could conceivably still end up bottom 4. The silver lining, of course, is that Freo climbing the ladder will depend on them beating at least one of Brisbane or Port, which would do our top 2 chances the world of good even as it worsens our draft hand.
This is the ladder:
Here's Freo's schedule:
Bris (H)
WC (A)
Port (H)
Haw (A)
And here's the schedule for the 6 teams above Freo:
Geelong:
Port (H)
Coll (A)
St. K (A)
WB (H)
Sydney:
GWS (A)
GC (H)
Adel (A)
Melb (H)
Richmond:
WB (A)
St. K (A)
NM (H)
Port (A)
Adelaide:
GC (H)
Bris (A)
Syd (H)
WC (A)
Essendon:
WC (H)
NM (A)
GWS (A)
Coll (H)
Gold Coast:
Adel (A)
Syd (A)
Carl (H)
NM (A)
There are three major obstacles to Freo climbing the ladder. Namely:
- Gold Coast, Adelaide and Sydney all play each other, which means they're either all guaranteed either 1 win each, or guaranteed to have one of those teams win twice, another once.
- Three of the teams play either WC or NM once, and Essendon get to play both of them, which you can obviously pen in as likely wins.
- Freo have the worst percentage of all these teams. At this stage of the season, each percentage point represents a difference of ~15 points in game, which puts them ~90 points behind GC, ~140 points behind Essendon and around ~400 points behind Adelaide. In other words, to catch up with GC they would need to win by 45 points, where GC lose by 45 points, or some equivalent combination, and so on for the other teams.
If we mark down all the WC and NM games as wins for the respective teams, then if Freo win 2 of their remaining 4 games, then the absolute highest they can finish is 13th, giving us pick 6. This, however, would depend on both:
- GC losing their next three games, AND Freo making up the ~90 point deficit they have with GC to pass them on percentage; OR Sydney losing all four of their games. (Because Sydney and GC play each other, only one of these outcomes is possible.)
- Geelong losing all 4 of their games.
If neither of these things happen, then 2 wins will see Freo finish 15th and give us pick 4.
This basically means that Freo likely need to win 3 of their last 4 games to deny us pick 4, at which point there are too many different permutations to calculate and it becomes impossible to say where our pick will end up. The dark horse here to watch out for is Geelong, who have a really tough run home and could conceivably still end up bottom 4. The silver lining, of course, is that Freo climbing the ladder will depend on them beating at least one of Brisbane or Port, which would do our top 2 chances the world of good even as it worsens our draft hand.
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