Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[aussierulesrules]

If we chucked in 38 with our F1, it’d be for a late teens pick.

Doesn’t mean you’d get it.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I can see that, however it could also be a pick around 8-12. People forget that we finished outside the top 8 only 2 seasons ago.

Clubs will always assume the worse end of a future pick. Add Bailey Smith in to a midfield that was trounced you haven’t got worse! If it’s the Cats f1 it will be one of the Tigers picks not both

 

[Brian McGee]

Won't be Adelaide as we don't have the list spots.

Will be pick 4 midfielder
Welsh father & son
Keane rookie upgrade

I could see you trying to work out a way to create an extra list space and trade back in to one of those Richmond picks for Alex Dodson.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I could see you trying to work out a way to create an extra list space and trade back in to one of those Richmond picks for Alex Dodson.

We can't as we are locked into taking Schoenberg & Burgess (arhh!) as rookies & we are committed to Welsh.

We have no spare spots.

 

[juss]

I wonder who does have a crack at those Richmond late 1st rounders. In my view:

Prime Candidates
Essendon - Already expressed an interest to trade back in and have 2 1sts. Either would be great for Richmond.
Bulldogs - They tried to get 13 and would back their 1st pick next year to be >10.
Hawthorn - They have Carltons F1 which they'd expect to be >10 and tried to get 13.

Outside Chance
Geelong - They could back their 1st pick next year to be >10 but there's risk there and might want flexibility for trades
St Kilda - A bit risky. Likely trading a 2025 top 10 pick for pick 20+. They already have 7&8. Don't need to be greedy.
Adelaide - Might try as they only have 1 early pick this year but too risky for me.
Kangaroos - There is talk of them wanting a 2nd pick but F1 is too high for Richmond's picks. Reckon they try GWS.

Very Unlikely
Goldcoast & Brisbane - Need F1s for academy bids next year
Fremantle & Westcoast - Will be saving picks for a possible Warner trade
GWS & Sydney - Already have multiple picks late in the 1st round

Impossible
Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Melbourne - Don't have F1s

I think Richmond won't have issues getting F1 straight swaps for 18 and 20 providing the right players are there. 22/23 starts to become a bit of a stretch. They may end up trading the 1st 2 and using the other 2. Again it depends who is there.

Reportedly the 2025 draft is weaker / not as deep as this year's first round, so I think there'd be a number of clubs quite comfortable trading their F1s for picks in this draft where the top 20 or so is considered a good depth of talent.

As with any future pick, it's a gamble but we're likely to either break even, or we deathride a club and hopefully snatch a suprisingly good pick upgrade from someone who finishes lower than expected.

I'd probably be happy to take 6 picks this year and then trade out 2 into next year if the right club offered it.

 

[Rich01]

Should be an easy fix. NoLukeParker.
Or maybe give it the old Lionel Hutz treatment - LukeParker?No!

LukeParkerNoOne

 

[sr36]

If we chucked in 38 with our F1, it’d be for a late teens pick.

Forget the pick number, you'll be doing it for a player you want. That player you'd pay that for with a late teens may still be on the board by the time it gets to 24.

I wouldn't worry. With your mob, if you do it it'll be really calculated and probably be a win.

 

[Ura]

I think the value for this draft is the picks in the 20s and 30s.
Otherwise draft picks in top 10 are about as weak a class for me in recent memory. In particular the top 5 by comparison.

Curious to see where teams drop out of draft though. Brisbane after they know where Levi bid falls may trade some picks. Same with Gold Coast after Leo may trade around a few places.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I can see that, however it could also be a pick around 8-12. People forget that we finished outside the top 8 only 2 seasons ago.

Yep, 28 is a stretch!

 

[richoatthedisco]

I think the value for this draft is the picks in the 20s and 30s.
Otherwise draft picks in top 10 are about as weak a class for me in recent memory. In particular the top 5 by comparison.

Curious to see where teams drop out of draft though. Brisbane after they know where Levi bid falls may trade some picks. Same with Gold Coast after Leo may trade around a few places.

Sweet. We'll give you two of those golden 20s picks for your crappy top 5 pick.

 

[LB2Snake]

Sweet. We'll give you two of those golden 20s picks for your crappy top 5 pick.

We’d probably give ya next year’s crappy one for em.

 

[richoatthedisco]

We’d probably give ya next year’s crappy one for em.

That's for our other one.

 

[sr36]

I think the value for this draft is the picks in the 20s and 30s.
Otherwise draft picks in top 10 are about as weak a class for me in recent memory. In particular the top 5 by comparison.

Curious to see where teams drop out of draft though. Brisbane after they know where Levi bid falls may trade some picks. Same with Gold Coast after Leo may trade around a few places.

I think it's comparatively extemely strong from about pick 5 onwards, but doesn't have as strong a top 4 as you often get. There's about 7 blokes who'd normally go pick 5 and then another 25 blokes who'd normally go top 20. Then about 20 blokes who'd normally go 20-35.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yep, 28 is a stretch!

I don’t think so. I think about the best we would get for our F1 would be pick 19 or 20, and for all we know we could finish bottom 4 next year, while North probably wouldn’t get a pick inside 15 for theirs, so I’d say there’s very little chance of a team who could win the flag getting a pick inside 25, for their F1.

Especially with potentially 5 other clubs offering up their F1’s for the same picks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Clubs will always assume the worse end of a future pick. Add Bailey Smith in to a midfield that was trounced you haven’t got worse! If it’s the Cats f1 it will be one of the Tigers picks not both

If you're saying Geelong F1 would only get 18 or 20 off Richmond at best that's probably right but I wouldn't trade it for that. I'm happy to pick late this draft.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If you're saying Geelong F1 would only get 18 or 20 off Richmond at best that's probably right but I wouldn't trade it for that. I'm happy to pick late this draft.

It’s about all you can expect for a f1 from the Cats maybe pick 18 (at best)

 

[aussierulesrules]

Geelong getting as high as 18 for their F1!? When Norths probably wouldn’t get them a pick inside 15?

C’mon folks, get serious!

Pick 18 in a draft with this much depth of quality is probably equivalent to about pick 12/13 in a “stock-standard” draft, and next years draft is seen as loaded up the pointy end with academy or FS guys, and lacking depth outside that, in the “open draft”, so pick 18 (the premiers pick) could be pushed back to pick 25 or so (after free agency compo and then bids for academy/FS), and that might be equivalent to about pick 30-35 in this years deep draft.

Teams who could finish top 2 or 4 next year, their F1’s are not going to be worth anything near 18. Especially if that’s after bids have come in for Ashcroft and co. That’s pick 15 now!

Teams like St Kilda and Essendon won’t get what’s currently 15 for theirs, and they’ll be trying.

 

[hawkinoz]

Geelong getting as high as 18 for their F1!? When Norths probably wouldn’t get them a pick inside 15?

C’mon folks, get serious!

Pick 18 in a draft with this much depth of quality is probably equivalent to about pick 12/13 in a “stock-standard” draft, and next years draft is seen as loaded up the pointy end with academy or FS guys, and lacking depth outside that, in the “open draft”, so pick 18 (the premiers pick) could be pushed back to pick 25 or so (after free agency compo and then bids for academy/FS), and that might be equivalent to about pick 30-35 in this years deep draft.

Teams who could finish top 2 or 4 next year, their F1’s are not going to be worth anything near 18. Especially if that’s after bids have come in for Ashcroft and co. That’s pick 15 now!

Teams like St Kilda and Essendon won’t get what’s currently 15 for theirs, and they’ll be trying.

Do a mock draft, pick the top 20, then lets see you make the case for a club to trade their F1 for pick 21 based on the talent left on board.
Make the case for Geelong. Straight F1 trade, don't involve their pick 38.
What are the chances they could pick the same player you chose at 21 to be available at 38 or maybe the draft has another player with very similar profile who will be there at 38. Maybe they will trade their F2 and 38 to move to early 30's for such a player instead of giving up their F1.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Do a mock draft, pick the top 20, then lets see you make the case for a club to trade their F1 for pick 21 based on the talent left on board. Make the case for Geelong.

No.

You’re delusional if you think Geelong are getting anywhere near what is currently pick 15 (which will be pick 18 by the time it rolls around on the night) for their F1.

If St Kikda could get what is currently 15 for their F1 the deal would have been done already.

So if we’re not getting that for our F1, on what planet are Geelong getting anywhere near that for theirs!?

Not happening. Get serious.

 

[hawkinoz]

No.

You’re delusional if you think Geelong are getting anywhere near what is currently pick 15 (which will be pick 18 by the time it rolls around on the night) for their F1.

If St Kikda could get what is currently 15 for their F1 the deal would have been done already.

So if we’re not getting that for our F1, on what planet are Geelong getting anywhere near that for theirs!?

Not happening. Get serious.

forget my delusion, make the case for the trade based on available player.

I am saying the quality of player available at pick 21 is not worthy of a F1.
Only happening if a Top 10-15 player has slid to 21. If that didn't happen, then the players from 20-40 or so are all equal.

Don't get X, take Y. No Y, take Z. Not need to give up F1. If you have a later pick, F2 and later pick is more than fair trade.

I would want Hawks to trade our pick 33 for Dogs or Ports pick 35 or 36 if they can throw in their F3 prior to draft night as we don't have one now. This will make it easier to offer straight up trades for our Blues F1+35/36 for GWS picks & later.

 

[Rich01]

Even if the talent in next years open draft is comparable to this years (which by and large we are being told that this one is superior to next years), why would a club be willing to forgo having to wait a year to draft a player next year, when they could get him this year, for a similar pick?

All drafts being equal, there should be a premium clubs pay to get into the present years draft.

If clubs can manage to buy into the top 30 this year, they will no doubt be paying a premium to do so.

 

[docko911]

If we chucked in 38 with our F1, it’d be for a late teens pick.

You don’t have pick 38.

 

[LB2Snake]

That's for our other one.

Yeah I’m not on board with that…..hope my club feels the same.
Be interesting on the night, it’ll be how desperate clubs are and who’s there.
The earlier they are swapped out is where Tigers value might be….unless there’s a slider on the night.

 

[blaisee]

If you're saying Geelong F1 would only get 18 or 20 off Richmond at best that's probably right but I wouldn't trade it for that. I'm happy to pick late this draft.

That's good, because that is where you are going to pick

 

[Profop]

Do a mock draft, pick the top 20, then lets see you make the case for a club to trade their F1 for pick 21 based on the talent left on board.
Make the case for Geelong. Straight F1 trade, don't involve their pick 38.
What are the chances they could pick the same player you chose at 21 to be available at 38 or maybe the draft has another player with very similar profile who will be there at 38. Maybe they will trade their F2 and 38 to move to early 30's for such a player instead of giving up their F1.

But it’s not about comparing that it’s about comparing the players left at pick 21 to the player likely to be available at pick 18 in 2025