Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[master bate]

Three clubs hold the top 11 picks, all them are reliant on each other not finding out who they want. When have we had that dynamic before to this extent? (Genuine question)

Add a lack of a clear top 6 in addition to that, and you have a recipe for silence.

The only Intel that's getting out into the media at the moment seems to pick interest rather than player interest.

Twomey already had the top five in his October phantom guide last year. This is an outlier year.

The expansion drafts GWS 2011 (brisbane 2 picks), 2012 (Dogs 2 picks) and Suns 2010 have some similarities.

I agree it’s a difficult year. But I also think as the draft seems to take shape teams will leak their picks to an extent.

Lalor at 1 has seemed a lock for a while. North probably make the decision at 2 pretty soon if nothing changes. Carl, Adel, Melb probably flow from there. It already feels like there’s 6 players for 5 picks at the top (Lalor, Tauru, Draper, FOS, Langford, Smith)

I doubt the Richmond, St Kilda, Dees at 9 picks get too much mail because Richmond will probably have various combinations based on who they take with each earlier pick and If GWS or anyone else trades up for 8.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Three clubs hold the top 11 picks, all them are reliant on each other not finding out who they want. When have we had that dynamic before to this extent? (Genuine question)

Add a lack of a clear top 6 in addition to that, and you have a recipe for silence.

The only Intel that's getting out into the media at the moment seems to pick interest rather than player interest.

Twomey already had the top five in his October phantom guide last year. This is an outlier year.

First, like I said, clubs never want others finding out who they want. That's not where the talk comes from.

Second, there's been plenty of talk of clubs being interested in certain players.

Third, 3 clubs don't hold the top 11 picks. 6 clubs do. I think what you meant is 3 clubs hold 8 of the first 11. While it is unusual it's not unique for several clubs to dominate the top of the draft:

2020: 4 clubs with 9 of the first 13
2019: 4 clubs with 10 of the first 12
2018: 3 clubs with 7 of the first 14
2017: 3 clubs with 6 of the first 10
2015: 3 clubs with 7 of the first 12

* A few academy bids in there but doesn't change the narrative

Theres more if you keep going back, particularily the expansion drafts.

 

[T4P]

The expansion drafts GWS 2011 (brisbane 2 picks), 2012 (Dogs 2 picks) and Suns 2010 have some similarities.

I agree it’s a difficult year. But I also think as the draft seems to take shape teams will leak their picks to an extent.

Lalor at 1 has seemed a lock for a while. North probably make the decision at 2 pretty soon if nothing changes. Carl, Adel, Melb probably flow from there. It already feels like there’s 6 players for 5 picks at the top (Lalor, Tauru, Draper, FOS, Langford, Smith)

I doubt the Richmond, St Kilda, Dees at 9 picks get too much mail because Richmond will probably have various combinations based on who they take with each earlier pick and If GWS or anyone else trades up for 8.

2010 and 2011 were effectively monopolies of GC/GWS picks, little risk of things leaking.
2012 GWS had the first three picks, and the dogs two picks were together, you only had one Melbourne pick in between.

This year we have had no certainty beyond a seeming consensus on Lalor at pick one, which itself has unprecedented uncertainty.

Basically, any media phantoms this year are less reliable than normal years

 

[perplexed]

so now journos are credible?

It is hard to keep up with you blokes

Seriously? ....... maybe google Emma Quayle next.

 

[T4P]

First, like I said, clubs never want others finding out who they want. That's not where the talk comes from.

Second, there's been plenty of talk of clubs being interested in certain players.

Third, 3 clubs don't hold the top 11 picks. 6 clubs do. I think what you meant is 3 clubs hold 8 of the first 11. While it is unusual it's not unique for several clubs to dominate the top of the draft:

2020: 4 clubs with 9 of the first 13
2019: 4 clubs with 10 of the first 12
2018: 3 clubs with 7 of the first 14
2017: 3 clubs with 6 of the first 10
2015: 3 clubs with 7 of the first 12

* A few academy bids in there but doesn't change the narrative

Theres more if you keep going back, particularily the expansion drafts.

Yes thank you for correcting - 3 clubs holding 8 of the first 11.

Looking through those examples, 2017 is the dynamic that's most reflective of this year with freo and carlton having multiple picks split and saints with 7/8 again. Twomey was quite off with his phantom that year (6/10, 7/20).

2015 is also quite similar but he nailed the top ten that year. Maybe the rankings were more straightforward that year, but I suspect 2017 might be closer to what played out this year

 

[blaisee]

Seriously? ....... maybe google Emma Quayle next.

lol. I know who she is

 

[The Talent Scout]

There are so many potential permutations for this draft it’s fascinating!!

Yes, early picks, Key forwards vs midfielders, defenders and small forwards, elite picks vs good picks, pick swaps? Potential vs quantity and the need to get your player, that could be said every year but this year it seems its x 100. For all the comments about an even draft why do people not think Adelaide drop back several places, the same with Carlton, I'll tell you why they want one of those gun mids, that's why, and I can't blame them. Still, its only EIGHT DAYS AWAY, before you know it, it will be here and all our hearts will be racing or to some, a quiet flutter.

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying? Lol. Maybe you missed the joke.

I must have.

I didn't read anything funny.

 

[LB2Snake]

Seriously? ....... maybe google Emma Quayle next.

TigTok

 

[blaisee]

Seriously? ....... maybe google Emma Quayle next.

It is just that Nth fans seems to rate journos when it suits them, and call them bias when it doesn't

BTW, Herald Sun just said Nth wanna trade Pick 2, and F1, pls do not tell Nth fans

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

It is just that Nth fans seems to rate journos when it suits them, and call them bias when it doesn't

BTW, Herald Sun just said Nth wanna trade Pick 2, and F1, pls do not tell Nth fans

It’s obvious we want to trade one or the other, we want more picks, and early. Again would need to be for the right price.

Journo’s are pretty much never hearing it from the horses mouth. Cavanagh today said he hadn’t heard any links from ‘industry sources’ to players outside of Tauru. That doesn’t mean that we’re taking Tauru, it just means the industry thinks we like him. He’s clearly the target if we trade back and he would be if we traded back in and he was available.

2020 it was consensus that we ‘should’ pick McDonald and there was also whispers up until draft day that Hollands was our guy - his dad went on radio and said he thought he’d be a Roo. We picked Phillips.

2021 we had pick 1 and picked the obvious JHF. For round 2 we were linked relentlessly to Motlop, picked Goater.

2022 we made a trade on the basis we wouldn’t pick Cadman, Sheezel and Wardlaw were clear favourite, yet there were whispers of Tsatas until Wardlaw dropped that he’d be a North player in a press conference accidentally. We were basically only mocked to Tom McCallum in the 2nd round, and we picked George as BPA.

Last year Harley was clear no. 1 which meant our targets were locked in early and yet there were whispers of Curtin in the draft week.

In a draft where we want to trade back and trade in and a draft where it’s so even, it’s pretty clear why there’d be scepticism towards the word of reporters. At pick 2, there will most likely be who we rate as the best in the draft available for us to pick, and I doubt that’s Tauru, so it’s a balance of picking BPA vs. Getting the right value in a trade to pick for needs.

 

[blaisee]

It’s obvious we want to trade one or the other, we want more picks, and early. Again would need to be for the right price.

Journo’s are pretty much never hearing it from the horses mouth. Cavanagh today said he hadn’t heard any links from ‘industry sources’ to players outside of Tauru. That doesn’t mean that we’re taking Tauru, it just means the industry thinks we like him. He’s clearly the target if we trade back and he would be if we traded back in and he was available.

2020 it was consensus that we ‘should’ pick McDonald and there was also whispers up until draft day that Hollands was our guy - his dad went on radio and said he thought he’d be a Roo. We picked Phillips.

2021 we had pick 1 and picked the obvious JHF. For round 2 we were linked relentlessly to Motlop, picked Goater.

2022 we made a trade on the basis we wouldn’t pick Cadman, Sheezel and Wardlaw were clear favourite, yet there were whispers of Tsatas until Wardlaw dropped that he’d be a North player in a press conference accidentally. We were basically only mocked to Tom McCallum in the 2nd round, and we picked George as BPA.

Last year Harley was clear no. 1 which meant our targets were locked in early and yet there were whispers of Curtin in the draft week.

In a draft where we want to trade back and trade in and a draft where it’s so even, it’s pretty clear why there’d be scepticism towards the word of reporters. At pick 2, there will most likely be who we rate as the best in the draft available for us to pick, and I doubt that’s Tauru, so it’s a balance of picking BPA vs. Getting the right value in a trade to pick for needs.

Looks like Nth if they keep 2, will draft a mid, if they do that, they will definitely trade F1, and take the best offer on the table for it, and draft a tall.

Sounds to be like the most reasonable option

If they attach Pick 2, to F1, they will get 2 top 20 picks, again this will be auctioned

Interesting

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

Looks like Nth if they keep 2, will draft a mid, if they do that, they will definitely trade F1, and take the best offer on the table for it, and draft a tall.

Sounds to be like the most reasonable option

If they attach Pick 2, to F1, they will get 2 top 20 picks, again this will be auctioned

Interesting

Probably a moot point as I’d say we get a top 20 pick either way for the future pick. Not in the traditional 6-12 range that it may command (traditional value would need probably a late second attached) but in the 15-20 range, which many will be against but if it allows us to get a key forward with 1 extra year of development compared to next year and pick BPA (which in our eyes would potentially be our favourite player in the draft).

I.e.
if you pick Tauru at 2 when you rate him around 6-10. And then a midfielder next year at Pick 2.

there’s not much difference to picking FOS at 2 and say Trainor, Shanahan or Whitlock after trading in our F1 if you rate one of them around 10-12 this year. Plus these guys would make an impact 1 year earlier in theory.

All speculation but personally I feel the Tauru links are attached to our attempted dealing in the trade period. Also wouldn’t really mind if we picked him at 2 personally.

 

[blaisee]

Probably a moot point as I’d say we get a top 20 pick either way for the future pick. Not in the traditional 6-12 range that it may command (traditional value would need probably a late second attached) but in the 15-20 range, which many will be against but if it allows us to get a key forward with 1 extra year of development compared to next year and pick BPA (which in our eyes would potentially be our favourite player in the draft).

I.e.
if you pick Tauru at 2 when you rate him around 6-10. And then a midfielder next year at Pick 2.

there’s not much difference to picking FOS at 2 and say Trainor, Shanahan or Whitlock after trading in our F1 if you rate one of them around 10-12 this year. Plus these guys would make an impact 1 year earlier in theory.

All speculation but personally I feel the Tauru links are attached to our attempted dealing in the trade period. Also wouldn’t really mind if we picked him at 2 personally.

You could of course take Tauru at Pick 2, and then take one of the talls you mentioned at 15-20

All hinges on how high you rate Tauru

Will not come up with Rich and Nth pick scenarios as I have been abused enough on this board lol

8 days to go

 

[TigerTime88]

I really rate Smillie. I think he’s going to be a star.
But I do believe if tigers take Lalor at 1 we won’t be taking Smillie at 6. They don’t provide enough contrast as mids and neither have serious pace.

I think the Smillie interest is either an overblown link or a red herring.

I feel pretty confident tigers really want Jagga and are hoping he either falls to 6 or they will potentially look to trade up from 6,10,11 to nab him.

We are going to be the pointy end of the next 3-4 drafts though so you would think they take best available.

 

[TigerTime88]

Hypothetical scenario to try and understand the machinations between clubs when trying to do a deal on draft night.

Pick 10 about to occur and Richmond still hold picks 10 and 11
Tauru and Amstrong still on the table
North want Tauru
Richmond want Armstrong

North approach Richmond and offer
F1 and F3 for Pick 10

Richmond will only do the deal if they know North won’t pick Armstrong,
Would North put their hand on their heart and tell Richmond they are taking Tauru?

Side note, if it was Essendon from past years you wouldn’t trust anything that came from D.

Richmond would just take Armstrong and then do the deal for 11 not 10. Takes out the risk and North get the same player.

 

[Rich01]

Hypothetical scenario to try and understand the machinations between clubs when trying to do a deal on draft night.

Pick 10 about to occur and Richmond still hold picks 10 and 11
Tauru and Amstrong still on the table
North want Tauru
Richmond want Armstrong

North approach Richmond and offer
F1 and F3 for Pick 10

Richmond will only do the deal if they know North won’t pick Armstrong,
Would North put their hand on their heart and tell Richmond they are taking Tauru?

Side note, if it was Essendon from past years you wouldn’t trust anything that came from D.

We would take Tauru in those circumstances. The only way North will get either pick 10 or 11 is if they accept an offer for 2 for one of those picks and 18 at the start of the draft.

Now North fans will say no deal, I’ve got a feeling that two players that will suit their needs will be available at 10 and 18 next Wednesday night.

The question will be whether the north brains trust will be ballsy enough to make it happen. I doubt it.

 

[Sphynx]

We would take Tauru in those circumstances. The only way North will get either pick 10 or 11 is if they accept an offer for 2 for one of those picks and 18 at the start of the draft.

Now North fans will say no deal, I’ve got a feeling that two players that will suit their needs will be available at 10 and 18 next Wednesday night.

The question will be whether the north brains trust will be ballsy enough to make it happen. I doubt it.

I think you mean stupid enough.

It is just that Nth fans seems to rate journos when it suits them, and call them bias when it doesn't

BTW, Herald Sun just said Nth wanna trade Pick 2, and F1, pls do not tell Nth fans

I think we have all recognized reading comprehension isn’t your strongest suit.

Please re-read the article, then when you think you understand it, re-read it again.

The article didn’t state it at all. It said “considering offers” and quite clearly from Viney’s own mouth indicated each pick was being considered in isolation.

I would of thought the odds would be fairly short of us keeping Pick 2 and then trading our F1 for Tauru or Armstrong on draft night if available.

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Twomey has a better track record than most other journals and anyone on here.

His track record suggests he knows more and has more contacts than you do.

I actually find it frustrating that he gives verrrrrry little away for a month until 48 hours prior and then effectively gives away the night!

 

[blaisee]

I think you mean stupid enough.



I think we have all recognized reading comprehension isn’t your strongest suit.

Please re-read the article, then when you think you understand it, re-read it again.

The article didn’t state it at all. It said “considering offers” and quite clearly from Viney’s own mouth indicated each pick was being considered in isolation.

I would of thought the odds would be fairly short of us keeping Pick 2 and then trading our F1 for Tauru or Armstrong on draft night if available.

I am really getting sick and tired of your condescending tone

Reading comprehension is not my strongest suit, right

You have head in the sand brother, if a journo says something you agree with, you point to it, if they don't you disregard it

How old are you?

 

[_Cerberus_]

I actually find it frustrating that he gives verrrrrry little away for a month until 48 hours prior and then effectively gives away the night!

I try and avoid his stuff now days. As it ruins draft night for me. He has gotten more and more accurate, and deeper too over the last few years. Prefer the mystery of the night or trying to guess each pick as they come myself.

That being said, I feel this years draft will throw a few surprising curve balls that no one expects.

 

[T4P]

Twomey isn't even going with a phantom draft this year, wow.

I assume that's what this mornings publication takes place of

 

[Addy23]

Twomey isn't even going with a phantom draft this year, wow.

I assume that's what this mornings publication takes place of

Plenty of water to go under the bridge till this weekend at least. That's when he'll release his proper phantom draft I think

 

[Makeshift Park]

Twomey isn't even going with a phantom draft this year, wow.

I assume that's what this mornings publication takes place of

"Remember, this is a ranking and not a mock draft. It does not take into account where the players will be drafted or where bids on father-son or Academy players will fall. That will come next week."

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' November ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his fifth and final Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Wild Bill]

Twomey isn't even going with a phantom draft this year, wow.

I assume that's what this mornings publication takes place of

He will - it comes out a day or two before the draft.