Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[Makeshift Park]

Why on gods earth would Adelaide do that?

North supporters are delusional about P2. There the ones that want to do a deal, they fail to recognise that the top 6 is pretty much same same.

I’m not saying it will happen, or even that Adelaide should do it.

But Twomey and news journos keep talking up pick 4 as the logical trading point for North, but we’re all scratching our heads as to how it’ll work, when Adelaide have SFA 2024 picks after 4.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I’m not saying it will happen, or even that Adelaide should do it.

But Twomey and news journos keep talking up pick 4 as the logical trading point for North, but we’re all scratching our heads as to how it’ll work, when Adelaide have SFA 2024 picks after 4.

I think the only way that trade gets done is because North want someone at 2 that will 100% get to 4 (probably Tauru). And Adelaide want someone at 2 that might get to 4 but they are willing to pay something moderate (E.g.F2) to make it 100%.

So North get something extra and the player they were going to take anyway. And Adelaide get certainty around their player for something relatively small.

 

[1990crow]

I think the only way that trade gets done is because North want someone at 2 that will 100% get to 4 (probably Tauru). And Adelaide want someone at 2 that might get to 4 but they are willing to pay something moderate (E.g.F2) to make it 100%.

So North get something extra and the player they were going to take anyway. And Adelaide get certainty around their player for something relatively small.

Exactly

 

[aussierulesrules]

Insanity imo.

This is not a cheapshot, but StKilda repeatedly have trouble attracting elite players. Like all teams, they have plenty of high level and next level talent always rolling through.

But to throw a towel over everyone between 7 & 20 is madness. Anyone can take the job and read out a name if that's the case. Saints have got 2 great picks and always need to take the chance to have the best shot at their next elite player.

They should absolutely read out the 2 highest players on their rankings at 7 & 8.

Or trade up if they can.

That’s certainly a very valid argument and plenty of people agree with it.

And depending on how the cards fall on the night, we may absolutely go that way.

But a counter argument to that is that this is AFL footy, with 18 on a field, as opposed to say basketball, with just 5, so selling the farm for the very elite guys isn’t the only way to skin a cat. It can leave you weak at the tail-end of your 23.

It’s also not a guarantee of anything.

Three of the best looking young kids we’ve gotten to the club in the last 15-20 years are Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera and Wilson, and they were drafted at picks 10, 11 and 18 respectively, while we haven’t got much to show for the guys we’ve drafted higher than that in the last 15 years. So higher picks don’t guarantee you anything.

Gubby, SOS and Dalrymple have an obscene amount of experience between them, so I’m pretty happy to back in whatever they do, until they give me reason not to.

 

[richoatthedisco]

If we want him though. I suspect we like him, but were looking at him as an option if we trade down and get one of Richmond's 10 or 11 - which seems more like his range.

We'll find out soon enough but I agree. You like Tauru but you want more than just Tauru. You like Armstrong, but you want more than just Armstrong. Pick 10 or 11 almost certainly guarantees one of them, and if not then definitely your pick of any other tall in the pool. Pick 18 guarantees a Whitlock, Faull, or Shanahan. You can get two of these talls or one Tauru, or one FOS. And you keep your top-5 pick in 2025 (which despite the delusions of a couple of posters, you won't get better than pick 15 for at the absolute most).

But you didn't want pick 2, because pick 6 is basically the same in this draft.

I'm not the one making that argument and I doubt Richmond is either. Richmond is not reluctant to give up pick 6 because it's the same as pick 2, it's because we can get Smillie at 6, and we think Smillie plus whoever we'd get with the other pick you'd want is better than just FOS.

At the end of the day, holding Adelaide's F1 is advantageous over holding 18

Is it? We know we can get a Whitlock at 18. Who can we get with Adelaide's 2025 first?

If we were to even consider helping you in that deal we'd tell you to hold Adelaide's F1 yourselves and gives us yours. (And besides, that deal is pretty crap for Adelaide too.)

We would like pick 2, and we're not going to help you do a deal that delivers it to someone else. If we don't help Adelaide get pick 2, it's more likely we'll get it.

Rawlings has painted North into a bit of a corner. You're taking three picks. You have picks 2 and 62 - he needs another. He can't get value for your F1. He can sell it but it'll be at a loss. Or he can split pick 2 for two of the best young talls in the country, which everyone can see would suit your list build beautifully.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We'll find out soon enough but I agree. You like Tauru but you want more than just Tauru. You like Armstrong, but you want more than just Armstrong. Pick 10 or 11 almost certainly guarantees one of them, and if not then definitely your pick of any other tall in the pool. Pick 18 guarantees a Whitlock, Faull, or Shanahan. You can get two of these talls or one Tauru, or one FOS. And you keep your top-5 pick in 2025 (which despite the delusions of a couple of posters, you won't get better than pick 15 for at the absolute most).


I'm not the one making that argument and I doubt Richmond is either. Richmond is not reluctant to give up pick 6 because it's the same as pick 2, it's because we can get Smillie at 6, and we think Smillie plus whoever we'd get with the other pick you'd want is better than just FOS.


Is it? We know we can get a Whitlock at 18. Who can we get with Adelaide's 2025 first?

If we were to even consider helping you in that deal we'd tell you to hold Adelaide's F1 yourselves and gives us yours. (And besides, that deal is pretty crap for Adelaide too.)

We would like pick 2, and we're not going to help you do a deal that delivers it to someone else. If we don't help Adelaide get pick 2, it's more likely we'll get it.

Rawlings has painted North into a bit of a corner. You're taking three picks. You have picks 2 and 62 - he needs another. He can't get value for your F1. He can sell it but it'll be at a loss. Or he can split pick 2 for two of the best young talls in the country, which everyone can see would suit your list build beautifully.

They can just take 2 62 and 70 whatever (which will come in after passes).

 

[LB2Snake]

We'll find out soon enough but I agree. You like Tauru but you want more than just Tauru. You like Armstrong, but you want more than just Armstrong. Pick 10 or 11 almost certainly guarantees one of them, and if not then definitely your pick of any other tall in the pool. Pick 18 guarantees a Whitlock, Faull, or Shanahan. You can get two of these talls or one Tauru, or one FOS. And you keep your top-5 pick in 2025 (which despite the delusions of a couple of posters, you won't get better than pick 15 for at the absolute most).


I'm not the one making that argument and I doubt Richmond is either. Richmond is not reluctant to give up pick 6 because it's the same as pick 2, it's because we can get Smillie at 6, and we think Smillie plus whoever we'd get with the other pick you'd want is better than just FOS.


Is it? We know we can get a Whitlock at 18. Who can we get with Adelaide's 2025 first?

If we were to even consider helping you in that deal we'd tell you to hold Adelaide's F1 yourselves and gives us yours. (And besides, that deal is pretty crap for Adelaide too.)

We would like pick 2, and we're not going to help you do a deal that delivers it to someone else. If we don't help Adelaide get pick 2, it's more likely we'll get it.

Rawlings has painted North into a bit of a corner. You're taking three picks. You have picks 2 and 62 - he needs another. He can't get value for your F1. He can sell it but it'll be at a loss. Or he can split pick 2 for two of the best young talls in the country, which everyone can see would suit your list build beautifully.

 

[sr36]

Tauru wasn't selected in the initial Vic Country squad, Lalor has much more runs on the board.

Is that a good or bad thing? Means he has a steeper development curve. Lalor like Taurus has wow factor and could be anything but he didn't exactly brain them at the Champs.

 

[Andy_Mac]

I’m not saying it will happen, or even that Adelaide should do it.

But Twomey and news journos keep talking up pick 4 as the logical trading point for North, but we’re all scratching our heads as to how it’ll work, when Adelaide have SFA 2024 picks after 4.

P4 & F2 for P2 would be more likely.

 

[LB2Snake]

P4 & F2 for P2 would be more likely.

Maybe their F1 and our F2 change hands. Depends who they want and what we think we can do with the collateral.
Still of the opinion something’s already agreed upon with another club.

 

[sr36]

That’s certainly a very valid argument and plenty of people agree with it.

And depending on how the cards fall on the night, we may absolutely go that way.

But a counter argument to that is that this is AFL footy, with 18 on a field, as opposed to say basketball, with just 5, so selling the farm for the very elite guys isn’t the only way to skin a cat. It can leave you weak at the tail-end of your 23.

It’s also not a guarantee of anything.

Three of the best looking young kids we’ve gotten to the club in the last 15-20 years are Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera and Wilson, and they were drafted at picks 10, 11 and 18 respectively, while we haven’t got much to show for the guys we’ve drafted higher than that in the last 15 years. So higher picks don’t guarantee you anything.

Gubby, SOS and Dalrymple have an obscene amount of experience between them, so I’m pretty happy to back in whatever they do, until they give me reason not to.

The main factor is that in this draft you're more likely to get a top line player with 2 picks in the teens than one at pick 8.

At 8 you might have a 50% chance of getting a top player. In the teens it might drop to 30. But that's an overall increased likelihood if you have 2 bites.

I can only see it happening in-draft and think you'll need GWS to be in love with someone still on the board.

 

[sr36]

Why on gods earth would Adelaide do that?

North supporters are delusional about P2. There the ones that want to do a deal, they fail to recognise that the top 6 is pretty much same same.

They all have different ratings. It only takes Adelaide to rate someone well above the others, particularly if they're bullish about their 2025 chances and thus don't see their F1 to Norths F2 as a huge drop.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I can't fathom how StKilda would contemplate moving back from the 7,8 combo. Surely getting elite talent is their No.1, 2,3 and infinity gameplans.

Trade up, sure. That 7&F1 for 2 deal should absolutely be contemplated. But trading back should be nowhere near discussion level imo.

Option 1: Trade up. Great result.
Option 2: 7&8. Great result.
Option 3: No option 3.

7 and a F1 for 2 is terrible

Every chance the player a lot of clubs rate at 2 could be there at 7 in this draft, particularly if North go Tauru and there’s another surprise somewhere along the way. They could be throwing away a F1. Could be a top 5 pick.

 

[Anythings_sipposible]

Surely if North need another pick, they can trade their F2 to Essendon for one of 28/31? And surely if they rate FOS/Draper/Lalor significantly above Tauru, but recognise a need for a KPD, they can then take said KPD with pick 28/31?

This 'North have painted themselves into a corner therefore pick 2 is less valuable' line is bogus, and seems to only be parroted by people who really value picks 2

 

[Chip Scab1]

7 and a F1 for 2 is terrible

Every chance the player a lot of clubs rate at 2 could be there at 7 in this draft, particularly if North go Tauru and there’s another surprise somewhere along the way. They could be throwing away a F1. Could be a top 5 pick.

We'll have to throw in a 2025 R3 but it's not so terrible if they're convinced their going up and we're staying the same, or the player they really want will be gone by 7 (8). Anything less and we should complete our midfield. Had we not lost JHF and Thomas, sure, we'd need talls (we really need a CHF) but there's still a sizeable hole in our midfield.

 

[Rich01]

We'll have to throw in a 2025 R3 but it's not so terrible if they're convinced their going up and we're staying the same, or the player they really want will be gone by 7 (8). Anything less and we should complete our midfield. Had we not lost JHF and Thomas, sure, we'd need talls (we really need a CHF) but there's still a sizeable hole in our midfield.

Reckon if your midfield ain’t complete then pick the best available player, which would be a mid.

You’ve traded away your other picks to fill holes in the short term with experience. It’s not like these picks haven’t been used with some real thought to list management strategy. Couple them with a gun mid and it’s a good offseason.

BTW it’s absolutely astounding after five years of rebuilding and a multitude of first rounders, North still hasn’t completed their midfield AND they also need talls.

I can understand why Brady and Clarko would be thinking time is ticking….

 

[Tommy Wigs]

I still reckon if we keep pick 2 we're taking one of FOS or Draper.

Then trading in F1 to get a tall, maybe.

But given the option, it would be advantageous for us to keep our F1 if we could strike a deal three way using 2 and F2.

Maybe difference between FOS/Draper (2) or Tauru (4) plus Shanahan / Faull / Whitlock / Gerreyn or even Berry / Hannaford.

Three way is always the best

 

[Tommy Wigs]

That’s certainly a very valid argument and plenty of people agree with it.

And depending on how the cards fall on the night, we may absolutely go that way.

But a counter argument to that is that this is AFL footy, with 18 on a field, as opposed to say basketball, with just 5, so selling the farm for the very elite guys isn’t the only way to skin a cat. It can leave you weak at the tail-end of your 23.

It’s also not a guarantee of anything.

Three of the best looking young kids we’ve gotten to the club in the last 15-20 years are Phillipou, Wanganeen-Milera and Wilson, and they were drafted at picks 10, 11 and 18 respectively, while we haven’t got much to show for the guys we’ve drafted higher than that in the last 15 years. So higher picks don’t guarantee you anything.

Gubby, SOS and Dalrymple have an obscene amount of experience between them, so I’m pretty happy to back in whatever they do, until they give me reason not to.

Unless Trout is hiding in the back.

 

[perplexed]

P4 & F2 for P2 would be more likely.

That may work but they don't have a F2 just three F3 which won't be much value next year with the new points system.

 

[sr36]

Surely if North need another pick, they can trade their F2 to Essendon for one of 28/31? And surely if they rate FOS/Draper/Lalor significantly above Tauru, but recognise a need for a KPD, they can then take said KPD with pick 28/31?

This 'North have painted themselves into a corner therefore pick 2 is less valuable' line is bogus, and seems to only be parroted by people who really value picks 2

I actually think it's as simple as North really rate Tauru and thought they'd be able to effectively get something for nothing by trading down a few spots, but not looking like that something will be very much at all.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Reckon if your midfield ain’t complete then pick the best available player, which would be a mid.

You’ve traded away your other picks to fill holes in the short term with experience. It’s not like these picks haven’t been used with some real thought to list management strategy. Couple them with a gun mid and it’s a good offseason.

BTW it’s absolutely astounding after five years of rebuilding and a multitude of first rounders, North still hasn’t completed their midfield AND they also need talls.

I can understand why Brady and Clarko would be thinking time is ticking….

They hardly thought (at one stage anyway) that as I keep repeating, we have lost TT and JHF (Gun + Pick 1) - our best player is 20, the time is not ticking. If LDU goes, he goes, it's not the end of the world as we'll likely get pick 3-5 for him anyway. You are going to experience abject shitness this year, it's no good, but it's life and you soon deal with it. The concept of mid-table madness (Saints/Essendon's of the world) is no good for anyone.

 

[blaisee]

Before you go on another misinformation campaign this morning.

Here is what Twomey has said this morning:

Where do they go:

FOS - The Tigers have been weighing him up as one of the key contenders for the No.1 pick. If they don't go with him then all of North Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide and Melbourne will strongly consider, with O'Sullivan looking a top-five pick lock.

Lalor - Richmond has been strongly considering him at No.1. There's a world where if they don’t choose him there, he might still get through to pick No.6 but it's very unlikely. North Melbourne, Adelaide, Carlton and Melbourne also have strong interest in the top-five and are all doing extra work on him in recent times.

Langford - Carlton is looking at Langford as part of its group of elite midfielders, but his draft range looks only to span a couple more positions. Adelaide is weighing him up and Melbourne, where he trained over summer, will strongly consider if available at pick No.5. It is hard to see him getting to the Saints.

Smith - Looks the outside chance for the Tigers' top choice, with Carlton (pick No.3), Adelaide (pick No.4) or Melbourne (No.5) likely to swoop on the gun midfield talent if available. The Saints would jump on if he got through to their selections.
Draper - He is in the mix for Carlton's pick No.3 as the Blues weigh-up the gun midfielders. Adelaide has strongly been linked to the local product with pick No.4, while Melbourne (No.5) would also look closely. Should he get through to the Saints' pick No.7, they would snap him up swiftly.

Tauru - North Melbourne has been linked to Tauru and he's in the Roos' mix for pick No.2. They could shuffle down a few spots as well but would have to be wary how far back they go if they want him, given Melbourne, St Kilda and Richmond are also set to consider Tauru with top-10 choices. The real riser of this year's group.

Smillie - It is one of the intriguing questions in this year's top-10. Richmond has been strongest linked with its second choice, but St Kilda has back-to-back picks and Smillie will be in the ballpark there.

Armstrong - Richmond, Melbourne and St Kilda have all done their work on Armstrong with early selections. If he got through to Port Adelaide at pick No.13, he would be right in the frame too.

Reid - St Kilda and Melbourne will look at him later in the top-10, while Richmond (No.10 and 11), West Coast (No.12), Port Adelaide (No.13) and Fremantle (No.14) have also shown interest in Reid. There's a chance he is available deeper in the teens as far as the Western Bulldogs' pick No.17.

Allan - With more interest coming from Richmond, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Melbourne, Allan looks right in demand midway through the first round. St Kilda could also consider with its two top-10 picks. The Eagles didn't move back down the draft order with him specifically in mind.

Travaglia - Travaglia is in the sights of just about every club between pick 8 and 15. He is in considerations for St Kilda and Melbourne, has been closely tracked by Richmond, and has West Coast, Fremantle and the Giants also keen. One of those look set to land the rock solid prospect.

Berry - Berry is invited to the first night of the draft, so has plenty of clubs keen in the first 20 selections. Greater Western Sydney has done its work and has three picks inside the first 21, while West Coast (No.12), Fremantle (pick 14) and Richmond (No.10 and 11) have also done their work on him.

Hotton - One of the mysteries of the draft given his injury layoff. Hotton was on track to be a potential top-10 pick before the ACL but won't be in that bracket now. West Coast will consider as will Richmond with its later first-round picks, while the Western Bulldogs (No.17) have also done their work. The Giants, with three first-round picks, could well be an option for Hotton, too.

Lindsay - Clubs such as St Kilda, Fremantle, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs are all expected to look at Lindsay with first-round selections.

J.Whitlock - Right in the mix for Port Adelaide at No.13, while Richmond has also considered with its back-to-back picks (No.10, 11). Sydney will also wait to see if any of the key position forwards get through to their first-round selections.

Trainor - Trainor looks set to come into considerations in the latter stages of the first round. Sydney, with picks 19 and 22, could look at him, while the Tigers, with multiple selections, could also be in the mix for the backman as may be the Bulldogs.

Shanahan - Richmond, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, West Coast and Sydney are all viewed as the most favoured clubs to snaffle Shanahan in the first round – of course, other clubs trying to use future first-round picks to buy back into the early stages of this year's draft could also eye him should he get through a few more picks.

M.Whitlock - Looks likely to fit into the 15-30 market of the draft. The Giants could look at him, as with the Swans, while the Tigers are another club who could go that way if they want to add a versatile tall to their draft bounty.

Faull - In the mix as Port Adelaide looks at talls with its first pick, while Greater Western Sydney would also look at him. Should he get to the Swans' picks, Faull would be right in their wheelhouse.

So you read all that, watched gettable and your conclusion was that Nth looking at trading Pick 2 and F1 was a

"complete and utter fabrication"

The quality of your mental gymnastics to end up where you are qualifies you as an Olympic level gymnast

 

[saintmike65]

I can't fathom how StKilda would contemplate moving back from the 7,8 combo. Surely getting elite talent is their No.1, 2,3 and infinity gameplans.

Trade up, sure. That 7&F1 for 2 deal should absolutely be contemplated. But trading back should be nowhere near discussion level imo.

Option 1: Trade up. Great result.
Option 2: 7&8. Great result.
Option 3: No option 3.

I get your point but trading back is an option IF the deal is enticing enough & gets an extra pick or 2 in the first round

 

[dazzledavey36]

Melbourne won't be taking Taura with their first pick, you can put the house on that.

They're after elite midfielders with their first pick

 

[perplexed]

We'll find out soon enough but I agree. You like Tauru but you want more than just Tauru. You like Armstrong, but you want more than just Armstrong. Pick 10 or 11 almost certainly guarantees one of them, and if not then definitely your pick of any other tall in the pool. Pick 18 guarantees a Whitlock, Faull, or Shanahan. You can get two of these talls or one Tauru, or one FOS. And you keep your top-5 pick in 2025 (which despite the delusions of a couple of posters, you won't get better than pick 15 for at the absolute most).


I'm not the one making that argument and I doubt Richmond is either. Richmond is not reluctant to give up pick 6 because it's the same as pick 2, it's because we can get Smillie at 6, and we think Smillie plus whoever we'd get with the other pick you'd want is better than just FOS.


Is it? We know we can get a Whitlock at 18. Who can we get with Adelaide's 2025 first?

If we were to even consider helping you in that deal we'd tell you to hold Adelaide's F1 yourselves and gives us yours. (And besides, that deal is pretty crap for Adelaide too.)

We would like pick 2, and we're not going to help you do a deal that delivers it to someone else. If we don't help Adelaide get pick 2, it's more likely we'll get it.

Rawlings has painted North into a bit of a corner. You're taking three picks. You have picks 2 and 62 - he needs another. He can't get value for your F1. He can sell it but it'll be at a loss. Or he can split pick 2 for two of the best young talls in the country, which everyone can see would suit your list build beautifully.

Beautifully argued, it's like you are channeling Blair. But, 10 and 18 for pick 2? I think we'll pass.

I also don't buy this Smillie talk. If they had 1, 2 and 6, I doubt Richmond take 3 mids. It's really the first year of a major rebuild and you will get access to better mids than this year's crop over the next couple of years. Pick 6 looks a safe spot to take your favourite tall, possibly the player you are luring us into trading back to get.