Rumour Draft Rumours 2024 - No rumours allowed

[Rich01]

You are trying to counter every journo in the past week linking you to Smillie at 6 with - they are assumptions they are not based on knowledge

So right back at you.

How do you know that they don’t have knowledge he is your choice ?

I have no knowledge so please don’t think I’m pushing against us picking him.

I just know how we rank players and am surprised so many know how highly we rank Smillie over FOS and Langford. Personally I think they are speculating.

Now… did you find that Twomey quote locking Smillie to us yet?

 

[tigs2010]

Looking for clarification to the rumour that if I argue a point strong enough it means my club gets the player I want

Alright I'll try and see how it pans out on Wednesday.

We are getting Lalor and there is nothing anyone here can do about it.

 

[stavro#4]

I have no knowledge so please don’t think I’m pushing against us picking him.

I just know how we rank players and am surprised so many know how highly we rank Smillie over FOS and Langford. Personally I think they are speculating.

Now… did you find that Twomey quote locking Smillie to us yet?

Yeah I’ve posted it.

Should get it on Monday.

 

[LB2Snake]

Yeah who knows how the tigers have ranked them. They have been really open in the past in ranking players and putting them on a list and then just ticking them off when they get picked. Blair was again open about this when talking about whether they bid for Ashcroft.

How they have ranked the first six in the open draft has been kept quiet. Personally I think the Smillie talk comes through lazy journalism in the fact there are six top mids and the other clubs seem to prefer 5 higher than Smillie, leaving Richmond as the default. Couple that with Hartley having some affiliation with Smillies junior club and it’s a jackpot for locking him in at 6.

I can see how people have bought into the Smillie being a lock at 6 narrative though.

Personally I’m enjoying the club being a vault, for once.

I think a lot of tiger supporters have stated Smillie as who you want at 6.

 

[Captain Furious]

Looking for clarification to the rumour that if I argue a point strong enough it means my club gets the player I want

No you’re absolutely wrong. I know that for a fact.

 

[TigerTime88]

Looking for clarification to the rumour that if I argue a point strong enough it means my club gets the player I want

Plus clubs put our furphys so people don't know the game plan. Particularly the Tigs with so many picks.

 

[stavro#4]

Plus clubs put our furphys so people don't know the game plan. Particularly the Tigs with so many picks.

We are talking about how the top 7 picks play out.

What Furphys can Richmond put out here?

Different at 10 or 11. But not at 6

 

[TigerTime88]

We are talking about how the top 7 picks play out.

What Furphys can Richmond put out here?

Different at 10 or 11. But not at 6

I'm talking about the overall draft and people speaking with confidence at certain picks.

 

[adonski]

Plus clubs put our furphys so people don't know the game plan. Particularly the Tigs with so many picks.

Joe Furphy at pick 10 you reckon?

 

[Rich01]

I think a lot of tiger supporters have stated Smillie as who you want at 6.

That’s awesome. I want him too.
But that doesn’t mean they know we will pick him.

 

[Rich01]

We are talking about how the top 7 picks play out.

What Furphys can Richmond put out here?

Different at 10 or 11. But not at 6

Correct. What we do know is that Smillie will likely be there at our second pick. So that’s his starting range.

Has Twomey confirmed he’s a lock to the Tigers or just what I’ve stated above?

And in regard to Furphys, I don’t believe we have said boo this trade period. So pretty hard to spread false rumours when you aren’t talking

 

[stavro#4]

Correct. What we do know is that Smillie will likely be there at our second pick. So that’s his starting range.

Has Twomey confirmed he’s a lock to the Tigers or just what I’ve stated above?

And in regard to Furphys, I don’t believe we have said boo this trade period. So pretty hard to spread false rumours when you aren’t talking

Your own supporter was saying Richmond could put out furphys. I said what Furphy can you put out at p6?

Thats factual. No matter what you do at 6. It won’t impact St Kilda at 7 to trade up

Melbournes pick 9 is to far away to get concerned with what they do at 5.

Common sense please

 

[perplexed]

2 3rd rnd picks in most cases is likley to be more points than 1 second round pick. unless it ends up being pick 20 compared to pick 53 & 54 or something. Assuming all picks are in the middle somewhere, someone chasing points is still better off.

That's not right. On average a second rounder will be worth significantly more than two third rounders under the new model. See tables below.

However, because teams will be forced to use multiple seconds to match bids on academy players, those third rounders will come in quite a bit during the draft. We may find that if there are five academy first rounders Pick 18 blows out to 23. But Pick 38 comes in to 30 as many of the picks between them disappear. Those third rounders may end up more valuable than they initially seem.

 

[Rich01]

Yeah I’ve posted it.

Should get it on Monday.

Ahh so he hasn’t locked in his top 7 yet. Thought so, thanks.

 

[GWS Goose]

That's not right. On average a second rounder will be worth significantly more than two third rounders under the new model. See tables below.

However, because teams will be forced to use multiple seconds to match bids on academy players, those third rounders will come in quite a bit during the draft. We may find that if there are five academy first rounders Pick 18 blows out to 23. But Pick 38 comes in to 30 as many of the picks between them disappear. Those third rounders may end up more valuable than they initially seem.



View attachment 2166794

The gap in value was bigger than I remember. The break even point is pick 7 in the 3rd round. It's worth half pick 7 which is third round is worth exactly half the second round. Balance of probabilities a second is going to be very slightly better than 2 thirds assuming we think the clubs are all about the same

 

[Fear The Beard]

Only way I see Richmond picking Smillie with their second pick is if Tauru is still on the board which is unlikely.

Richmond way more likely to select whichever of FOS/Langford is available to them if Tauru is taken prior to their second pick as expected.

It seems likely that in no particular order with first 5 picks we’ll see; Lalor, Ashcroft, Smith, Draper, Tauru.

Pick 6 - FOS/Langford (Melb)
Pick 7 - FOS/Langford (Rich)

Just can’t see a world where Richmond pick Smillie with one of FOS/Langford still on the board.

 

[Rich01]

Only way I see Richmond picking Smillie with their second pick is if Tauru is still on the board which is unlikely.

Richmond way more likely to select whichever of FOS/Langford is available to them if Tauru is taken prior to their second pick as expected.

It seems likely that in no particular order with first 5 picks we’ll see; Lalor, Ashcroft, Smith, Draper, Tauru.

Pick 6 - FOS/Langford (Melb)
Pick 7 - FOS/Langford (Rich)

Just can’t see a world where Richmond pick Smillie with one of FOS/Langford still on the board.

Which way do you see Melb going in that scenario FTB?

 

[TigerTime88]

Your own supporter was saying Richmond could put out furphys. I said what Furphy can you put out at p6?

Thats factual. No matter what you do at 6. It won’t impact St Kilda at 7 to trade up

Melbournes pick 9 is to far away to get concerned with what they do at 5.

Common sense please

I said clubs are known to put our furphys particularly when they hold a lot of picks. Didn't refrence pick 6 at all you did.

 

[Makeshift Park]

That doesn’t look like Draper..

I dunno man. Couldn't say with great confidence cause the photo is so low-res, but the jawline, ears, high cheekbones and nose all look about right.

Wikipedia tells me that Draper is about the same height as Viney too.

 

[GWS Goose]

Joe Furphy at pick 10 you reckon?

That'd be a reach.
Red Herring Togo in the first round is my mail

 

[Fear The Beard]

Which way do you see Melb going in that scenario FTB?

Sounds as though we’re very interested in both. I’ve seen more links to Langford but I reckon a lot of those links came when it was expected that O’Sullivan would have been off the board by our pick.

Personally I would prefer Langford but I also like O’Sullivan.

 

[perplexed]

The gap in value was bigger than I remember. The break even point is pick 7 in the 3rd round. It's worth half pick 7 which is third round is worth exactly half the second round. Balance of probabilities a second is going to be very slightly better than 2 thirds assuming we think the clubs are all about the same

I think you are looking at the current model where pick 25 is worth twice pick 43. Under the new model it will be worth more than three times as much.

 

[GWS Goose]

FOS was a 1 or 2 selection a week ago, all of a sudden he could be as low as 8.
This assumes North take Tauru , Melbourne choose Langford and Richmond stick with Smillie. Saints would be doing cartwheels if they landed Fnn

 

[GWS Goose]

I think you are looking at the current model where pick 25 is worth twice pick 43. Under the new model it will be worth more than three times as much.

I was. You are correct

 

[stavro#4]

FOS was a 1 or 2 selection a week ago, all of a sudden he could be as low as 8.
This assumes North take Tauru , Melbourne choose Langford and Richmond stick with Smillie. Saints would be doing cartwheels if they landed Fnn

No chance he lands with us.

He won’t get past Richmond’s second selection.