Rumour Draft Rumours 2024

[CatToTheFuture]

They tried that last week and couldn't get pick 13 for it.

Everyone wants in on this draft, hence future picks were going like Mars Bars on Halloween.

I think that's equal parts this draft being good and the next draft being bad.

 

[richoatthedisco]

I think that's equal parts this draft being good and the next draft being bad.

And heavily compromised. My point being that saying North will just trade their F1 instead of dealing with Richmond runs into the issue of how late in this good draft they are willing to go when giving up a pick North fans assure me will be a top-3 pick next year.

 

[Lord of the Wings]

yeah plus clear top 5 imo is lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper and Langford

then a gap to the next rung

LOL - Smille, Ashcroft and Reid all ranked the same as that 5 and Tauru also. So we ain’t giving nothing for an upgrade to pick 2.

 

[Mofra]

Exactly.

Most of the noise is just a batch of Richmond supporters + Jon Ralph proclaiming it the best draft of all time because of their draft hand.

Pure hopium.

There's a massive pool of first round worthy talent.

But some posters are absolutely kidding themselves if they think the likes of FOS/Lalor would go anywhere near some of the recent top midfield prospects of the last 6-7 drafts.

FOS had a terrific bottom age year, but so did most of the best prospects of the last decade and Lalor has more than a few question marks that most others haven't had since probably Rayner.

Ashcroft and Smith are probably the only two who've had worthy #1 years on paper.

It's shallow at the top, but deep in the middle of the first round for probably another 20 selections. Which is what makes it such a well rated draft.

It was a standout year for bottom agers last year though. Oakleigh's whole on ball brigade were bottom agers IIRC and VM had more bottom agers play in 2023 than ever before.
That would be the origin of the quality comments.

It seems mostly non-mids have risen up the draft boards as the year progresses.

 

[Mofra]

yeah plus clear top 5 imo is lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper and Langford

then a gap to the next rung

Plenty of people rank Ashcroft ahead of all five

 

[Sphynx]

And heavily compromised. My point being that saying North will just trade their F1 instead of dealing with Richmond runs into the issue of how late in this good draft they are willing to go when giving up a pick North fans assure me will be a top-3 pick next year.

Which may not devalue the pick like you think it does.

There's also the possibility that pick is a top 3 pick and might result in one of the very few picks not impacted by bids at the top of the draft.

Making it even more valuable.

It's the same discussion of 2 vs any Richmond offer. A pick which is not compromised or only limited by Ashcroft vs 2 picks which may be compromised multiple or even 4-5 times if you are considering those into the 20's.

 

[Sphynx]

It was a standout year for bottom agers last year though. Oakleigh's whole on ball brigade were bottom agers IIRC and VM had more bottom agers play in 2023 than ever before.
That would be the origin of the quality comments.

It seems mostly non-mids have risen up the draft boards as the year progresses.

Oakleigh just had a terrible top age group in 2023.

Oakleigh only had 2 players drafted with Lorenz the first at #57, finished 11th and lost second week of the finals.

It wasn't a reflection necessarily on it being a historical group of underagers imo.

The same can be said for the VM group as a whole.

The only VM mid in the top 20 was Caleb Windsor.

Last year was an unusual year that had a lot of players outside of the typical big catchments (Reid - Bendigo, McKercher - Tassie, Watson & Windsor - Eastern, Duursma - Gippy etc). Sandringham themselves only had 1 in the top 20 despite winning the flag (Sanders - Who played for Tassie at the nationals). A huge year for Allies players and a strong year for Vic Country.


This doesn't mean it was a weak top end year, it certainly wasn't. They just weren't in the traditional Vic Metro CTL sides and Vic Metro u/18 Champ side by extension which paved the way for the likes of Smillie, Smith and Ashcroft for lots of minutes last year.

Remembering that McKercher, Sanders and Rogers led the Allies in best on ground performances to a 9 goal smashing of that Vic Metro midfield last year (however making a concession of the top age vs bottom age factor, obviously)

 

[Wild Bill]

"It's not a super draft!" cry those without a pick until the 50s!

"The top end's not that good!" cry those who know they're trading out pick 2.


They tried that last week and couldn't get pick 13 for it.

Everyone wants in on this draft, hence future picks were going like Mars Bars on Halloween.

Who's going to give up a good pick for North's F1? No one in the top 10. Not Richmond at 11 (unless pick 2 is involved), West Coast at 12 or Port at 13. Freo didn't fight to get pick 14 so they could trade it. The Giants at 15/16 maybe, but with the number of players they've just lost, they need to bring talent in. Dogs at 17 won't. Then we're back to Richmond at 18 (see pick 11). Sydney has 19 but they're looking to trade up, not out. Tiges again at 20, GWS again at 21 - maybe they do it here.

Do North trade their F1 for 21? Giving them 2, 21, 62 and no future first? Is that better than trading 2 for say 6 & 20, giving them 6, 20, 62 and a future first? If they get the man they want at 6 anyway?


Smillie > Jagga

"Its a Super Draft" cry those that desperately need it to be.

Every year teams try to get into the current years draft - its just that for the 1st time in a long time you have paid attention to the draft.

 

[Wild Bill]

I think that's equal parts this draft being good and the next draft being bad.

At the start of the year:

Tyler Welsh was a top 5 prospect and now will be lucky to go in the top 40
Sam Lalor was a mid 2nd rounder - now a top 3 chance.
Phoenix Hargrave and Nash King top 10 picks - lucky to get on a rookie list
Camporeles both in the top 20 - only 1 will get close
Trainor pick in the 40's - now top 10
Harvey Langford pick in the 40's - now top 10

Things change quickly in 12 months.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Plenty of people rank Ashcroft ahead of all five

He’s first but I’m not including him as he’s going to lions

 

[LB2Snake]

"It's not a super draft!" cry those without a pick until the 50s!

"The top end's not that good!" cry those who know they're trading out pick 2.

Come on richoatthedisco, let's also remember, "It's a really really even top 10/11" - Tiger supporters

 

[THE_GUN]

There's still a big difference between pick 2 and 6, even in this draft. Pick 2, you get whoever you want. Pick 6, you get whoever is left.

And what is that 'BIG' difference that you speak about in this draft

I dont see a JHF , Sheezel , Reid type players thats available
even Cal has Harvey Langford rated at #2 this year the bloke that i beat running to the bus

 

[Cleric]

"It's not a super draft!" cry those without a pick until the 50s!

"The top end's not that good!" cry those who know they're trading out pick 2.


They tried that last week and couldn't get pick 13 for it.

Everyone wants in on this draft, hence future picks were going like Mars Bars on Halloween.

Who's going to give up a good pick for North's F1? No one in the top 10. Not Richmond at 11 (unless pick 2 is involved), West Coast at 12 or Port at 13. Freo didn't fight to get pick 14 so they could trade it. The Giants at 15/16 maybe, but with the number of players they've just lost, they need to bring talent in. Dogs at 17 won't. Then we're back to Richmond at 18 (see pick 11). Sydney has 19 but they're looking to trade up, not out. Tiges again at 20, GWS again at 21 - maybe they do it here.

Do North trade their F1 for 21? Giving them 2, 21, 62 and no future first? Is that better than trading 2 for say 6 & 20, giving them 6, 20, 62 and a future first? If they get the man they want at 6 anyway?


Smillie > Jagga

I don't agree. Jagga is almost identical to Butters in the way he plays, and actually has had a better performance this year than Butters did in his draft year. If there is one player I would place a bet on that will make it, it's him. Smillie is a bit more hit or miss. He could be the next Cripps, or he may well be too slow, can't mark and can't kick. Remember he is 194cms playing in the midfield against kids half his size.

 

[Cleric]

And what is that 'BIG' difference that you speak about in this draft

I dont see a JHF , Sheezel , Reid type players thats available
even Cal has Harvey Langford rated at #2 this year the bloke that i beat running to the bus

I think Jagga is as good as Sheezel.

 

[Cleric]

yeah plus clear top 5 imo is lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper and Langford

then a gap to the next rung

I see similar.
Ashcroft, Lalor, Jagga, Draper and FOS, then a bit of a drop to Reid, Langford, Smillie etc.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

And what is that 'BIG' difference that you speak about in this draft

I dont see a JHF , Sheezel , Reid type players thats available
even Cal has Harvey Langford rated at #2 this year the bloke that i beat running to the bus

I'm still getting over the bus thing lol

 

[THE_GUN]

I think Jagga is as good as Sheezel.

You are under rating Sheezel heavily here

Id trade #1 + #6 for Sheezel today

 

[richoatthedisco]

Come on richoatthedisco, let's also remember, "It's a really really even top 10/11" - Tiger supporters

Haha. Not me, mate.

Ignoring Ashcroft and Lombard (who I rate higher than most - at least as high as Draper), I have a top 2 of FOS and Lalor. Then a group of Draper, Langford, Smillie, Hotton, Tauru, Lindsay, Jagga, Armstrong.

I don't agree. Jagga is almost identical to Butters in the way he plays,

He's not. Butters way more physical.

and actually has had a better performance this year than Butters did in his draft year. If there is one player I would place a bet on that will make it, it's him.

He'll make it. Lower ceiling than others in the top-10 for me.

Smillie is a bit more hit or miss. He could be the next Cripps, or he may well be too slow, can't mark and can't kick. Remember he is 194cms playing in the midfield against kids half his size.

Smillie is quicker than Cripps - ran 3.09 at the Combine, Cripps did 3.2 or something. Smillie's 2k was pretty good for someone who looks like he'll top out at 196/100. He might not be a mid. But he could be a champion half-back. But he could be a champion mid.

He ragdolled VFL players for the AIS, and did similar to the powerful Cooper Hynes. He's going to be a beast.

His kicking is excellent, both long (booming) and short (touch).

I think Jagga is as good as Sheezel.

Hard disagree.

 

[Cleric]

Haha. Not me, mate.

Ignoring Ashcroft and Lombard (who I rate higher than most - at least as high as Draper), I have a top 2 of FOS and Lalor. Then a group of Draper, Langford, Smillie, Hotton, Tauru, Lindsay, Jagga, Armstrong.


He's not. Butters way more physical.


He'll make it. Lower ceiling than others in the top-10 for me.


Smillie is quicker than Cripps - ran 3.09 at the Combine, Cripps did 3.2 or something. Smillie's 2k was pretty good for someone who looks like he'll top out at 196/100. He might not be a mid. But he could be a champion half-back. But he could be a champion mid.

He ragdolled VFL players for the AIS, and did similar to the powerful Cooper Hynes. He's going to be a beast.

His kicking is excellent, both long (booming) and short (touch).


Hard disagree.

Nah. As a Jr Butters wasn't as highly rated as Jagger. Infact, most had him as a wing or half forward rather than the midfielder he turned into. He has absolutely done better than he was expected to.

As for Sheezel, what was his position in his draft year? He was a forward. He kicked over 40 goals and was expected to play in the half forward line. He wasn't some record breaking midfielder.
His performances this year are well above either Butters or Sheezel in their draft years.
He moves like Butters, and is ready to play round 1

 

[Wild Bill]

Nah. As a Jr Butters wasn't as highly rated as Jagger. Infact, most had him as a wing or half forward rather than the midfielder he turned into. He has absolutely done better than he was expected to.

As for Sheezel, what was his position in his draft year? He was a forward. He kicked over 40 goals and was expected to play in the half forward line. He wasn't some record breaking midfielder.
His performances this year are well above either Butters or Sheezel in their draft years.
He moves like Butters, and is ready to play round 1

I would say McKercher is a better comparison.

 

[richoatthedisco]

Nah. As a Jr Butters wasn't as highly rated as Jagger. Infact, most had him as a wing or half forward rather than the midfielder he turned into. He has absolutely done better than he was expected to.

As for Sheezel, what was his position in his draft year? He was a forward. He kicked over 40 goals and was expected to play in the half forward line. He wasn't some record breaking midfielder.
His performances this year are well above either Butters or Sheezel in their draft years.
He moves like Butters, and is ready to play round 1

Ok mate.

 

[Mofra]

I don't agree. Jagga is almost identical to Butters in the way he plays, and actually has had a better performance this year than Butters did in his draft year. If there is one player I would place a bet on that will make it, it's him. Smillie is a bit more hit or miss. He could be the next Cripps, or he may well be too slow, can't mark and can't kick. Remember he is 194cms playing in the midfield against kids half his size.

Smillie performed well last year when he had less of a size advantage, and his 2km time trial results were good so he can cover ground. He'll be fine.

I'm interested in guys like Hotton. Gun pre-ACL, will he get back to his best? Hynes has played some midfield at u18 level, can he do it at AFL level or is he a full time medium forward? Hannaford starred in some games but put up a poor time trial result. Will he slide?

 

[LB2Snake]

Haha. Not me, mate.

Ignoring Ashcroft and Lombard (who I rate higher than most - at least as high as Draper), I have a top 2 of FOS and Lalor. Then a group of Draper, Langford, Smillie, Hotton, Tauru, Lindsay, Jagga, Armstrong.

Yeah that's a pretty sold rating list. I think Draper and Jagga nearly squeeze into your top group personally. Jagga gunna be known on first name only too, like Dusty. He's a freak.

 

[Heaps of fun]

And what is that 'BIG' difference that you speak about in this draft

I dont see a JHF , Sheezel , Reid type players thats available
even Cal has Harvey Langford rated at #2 this year the bloke that i beat running to the bus

IF the bus was 2km away he'd do alright.

 

[THE_GUN]

IF the bus was 2km away he'd do alright.

Nah he would get hit by a Uber eats driver chasing