Draft Strategy

[linnaeus]

Interesting article by Emma Quayle in Age today. She points out that the draft is shallow and this is primarily due to the change in the age of draftees. This takes out a fair chunk as has the priority signings of the Gold Coast. She believes that there is little to seperate the draftees after about 20. She also points out that Clubs need to take a minimum of 3 picks but this year they can use a pick/s to draft their own rookies.
I reckon that what may happen is that North:

5 Takes Cunnington or similar
21 Takes next best
25 Ditto
37 Sewell
41 Garlett
53 Obst. With Smith gone there may also be room for Harris. I would like to think he could play one more game for his life membership. It would be an example of us showing loyalty to a player at a time when players have not shown much back to us.

 

[Groucho]

It was a good article. I think you can only use one draft pick to elevate a rookie. If you want to elevate more then you have to delist accordingly. Seems some recruiters are quite pessimistic about this draft. One said it thins out after the top 4!

 

[shinboner magic]

Draft cunnington at 5
black at 21
melkshaw or bastinic at 25
then a couple more mids

To get garlett on the list we should just get rid of the deadwood that has been around long enough and shown nothing.
Lower,wundke and the others that have been mentioned have to go.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

This draft isn't shallow. I done my Phantom draft the only day and came to the realisation that there is alot of depth in this draft. Not so much for KP's and ruckman but for mids (which is what we need) it isn't as bad as everyone says it is.

Take Cunnington/Martin with pick 5

Take a KP with pick 21.

Another mid with 25

and then best available from then on. Might pick up a project ruckman in the later stages of the draft.

 

[snrub]

I imagine we would be aiming to grab Barlow rather than re-draft Harro.

 

[numchuks]

Geeze, thins out after the top 20??

Higthlights again why I think we got shortchanged in the Gibbo trade.

 

[Arden Street]

it was interesting Sydney wanted to give up Picks 6 and 14 for Pick 3.

 

[hilly]

Geeze, thins out after the top 20??

Higthlights again why I think we got shortchanged in the Gibbo trade.

At the risk of going against BigFooty convention, I don't think Emma Quayle's articles about the draft make her an expert on the draft.

 

[Chadwiko]

Harris is gone - the club, his management, and himself have all said so.

 

[bellzy]

At the risk of going against BigFooty convention, I don't think Emma Quayle's articles about the draft make her an expert on the draft.

Emma knows her stuff, but certainly isn't always spot on.

However, the article wasn't opinion based. Almost all the claims made were through recruiting managers.

 

[Wells Train]

5 gun player
21 another gun player
25 Luke Ball
37 another gun player
41 another gun player
53 anyone who is likely to get on the park more than JWS would have

 

[Flawed Genius]

5 gun player
21 another gun player
25 Luke Ball
37 another gun player
41 another gun player
53 anyone who is likely to get on the park more than JWS would have

Love it. Solid.

 

[hilly]

5 gun player
21 another gun player
25 Luke Ball
37 another gun player
41 another gun player
53 anyone who is likely to get on the park more than JWS would have

Just on Ball, I can't see how he'll be anywhere but Melbourne next season. If he enters the ND, they'll take him at #18 (and no one will take him before). Would make sense for him to go into the PSD only to allow Melbourne another good young player at pick 18 in the ND.

 

[Zvim]

Emma knows her stuff, but certainly isn't always spot on.

However, the article wasn't opinion based. Almost all the claims made were through recruiting managers.

What happened to the 40+ guns in this draft?

Joking aside, there is no reason for us to piss away picks just because a lot of the talent scouts couldn't spot talent outside of the bleeding obvious.

I am sure there will be more misses than in the last few years but we have been recruiting fairly well recently under Bryce.

 

[bellzy]

I am sure there will be more misses than in the last few years but we have been recruiting fairly well recently under Bryce.

Why should their be more misses though? I mean, it's not like the scouts have had more kids to look at, and therefore neglect others.

If anything, they should be able to have focused on the good ones for a while longer.

Obviously the talent may not physically be there, but the first two rounds should have just as many players make it as in previous years, solely for the fact that the recruiters have just as much impact this year as they always do.

 

[spina#39]

5) Martin or Cunnington (preferably Martin)
21) outside mid
25) KPP (in mould of Kurt Tippet)
37) best available
41) best available
53) mature aged player or pass

 

[Event Horizon]

It was a good article. I think you can only use one draft pick to elevate a rookie. If you want to elevate more then you have to delist accordingly. Seems some recruiters are quite pessimistic about this draft. One said it thins out after the top 4!

The way I understand it, to elevate a rookie to the senior list permanently, you do NOT need to use the draft pick. You can do it prior to the draft.

The only change to the rule this year is that unlike previous years where each club was obliged to draft a minimum of 3 players (irrespective of how many rookies were elevated), from this year one can choose to draft just two players, provided that the club elevated at least one rookie prior to the draft.

In other words if we choose to promote Garlett to the senior list before the draft, we are then only obliged to draft a minimum of two players.

This rule won't really apply to us, as we'll be using a minimum of 5 picks I feel.

It's possible that just 3 of them will be 18 year olds with the last couple perhaps being VFL/SANFL/WAFL players.

 

[Zvim]

Why should their be more misses though? I mean, it's not like the scouts have had more kids to look at, and therefore neglect others.

If anything, they should be able to have focused on the good ones for a while longer.

Obviously the talent may not physically be there, but the first two rounds should have just as many players make it as in previous years, solely for the fact that the recruiters have just as much impact this year as they always do.

Say the overall quality of this year's group is the same as last year, and it was strong last year. Then if we generated 11 very good quality players last year and another 23 good players to comprise the first two rounds and that came from a player pool of 2000 kids and this year we only have 630 odd then at the same ratio we would expect 4 very good quality players and 7 good quality players.

That is just a purely mathematical pro-rata based on the size of the pool before we even got to look at the kids.

The advantage of a thinner pool is that you had some solid players who would normally not make the championship games and the like get that kind of exposure this year and a number of them would have benefited from the experience.

Once you get outside of the first dozen odd players you could throw a blanket over a fair chunk of them. As I said, it is not about not finding good players but they are not exceptional talent so it is going to come down to how hard they work.

This year there hasn't been the same kind of staggering of the talent so it is a lot harder to separate those who are 2nd round quality from those who are 3rd round quality.

I think the phantom drafts this year will be a lot harder to do simply because it is harder to separate the players and it is not because they are all massively talented. They all show some positive signs but they are less complete packages and the difference between those that will make it and those that wont will be which ones bust their arse and which don't, very much like the year we took Riggio and Swallow. If you swapped the work ethics around, Riggio would be a gun and Swallow would be de-listed.

It is a very similar kind of year where the talent is very, even, after a certain point. It would be awesome if everyone of them had a great work ethic but in reality it varies significantly and it is something hard to pick from watching the kids. Clubs will end up picking guys more on need than best available because best available is too hard to define for this group outside the few standouts.

 

[bellzy]

A good year to need midfielders, no doubt.

 

[linnaeus]

Does anyone know the new rules that may apply this year?. Is this the year that the lists are extended as a concession to the clubs for the introduction of the new teams? Obviously this is important for list management. If lists are extended then clubs may keep players that in other years they were forced to delist.

 

[Mario the Lothario]

I imagine we would be aiming to grab Barlow rather than re-draft Harro.

Ditto. The VFL should throw up a few more players than usual in this draft.

Unfortunately, Harro was never the same after Laidley stuffed him up by trying to turn a quality grunt in to Keith Greig.

I have a feeling that Collingwood might snap up Harro.

 

[coopers pale]

For me, I want us to use all 5 picks, with only Garlett being promoted. I'm not convinced that Sewell has much upside as anything more than a mediocrely-skilled (by foot - which as a club surely we've had enough of) ball hunter. I want guys with very good foot skills, even if they get the ball 4-5 times less than Sewell per game, that's what the club needs.

The game is now mostly about punishing other teams on their turnovers, so skills are crucial. I haven't seen Sewell play, but the knock on him is his foot-skills, isn't it?

My draft wish list is:
Main draft: Mid, Mid, KPP (forward), Mid, Mid. No small forwards, no HBF's (who could become mids);
Rookie draft: a ruckman, 2 mids and a mid-sized forward.

 

[Twinkletoes]

For me, I want us to use all 5 picks, with only Garlett being promoted. I'm not convinced that Sewell has much upside as anything more than a mediocrely-skilled (by foot - which as a club surely we've had enough of) ball hunter. I want guys with very good foot skills, even if they get the ball 4-5 times less than Sewell per game, that's what the club needs.

The game is now mostly about punishing other teams on their turnovers, so skills are crucial. I haven't seen Sewell play, but the knock on him is his foot-skills, isn't it?

My draft wish list is:
Main draft: Mid, Mid, KPP (forward), Mid, Mid. No small forwards, no HBF's (who could become mids);
Rookie draft: a ruckman, 2 mids and a mid-sized forward.

Not meaning to be picky here coops, and I'm not necessarily championing the recruitment of Sewell (who looks way too skinny for AFL atm) but on the one hand you criticise him and the next say you've "never seen him play".

Many here have seen him play several times (including me) and he's a twig ball magnet type. Think Liam Anthony 10kg's lighter. Whether or not it's too late for him I guess we'll find out come draft day.

As a mature aged recruit he just doesn't APPEAR one who's ready to impact at AFL level from the get go IMO. Barlow does, and would.

 

[Long Live the King]

Trade week and the upcoming draft seems to have divided the AFL........

with lots said about the shallowness of the draft there seemed to be a split between those clubs happy to trade away draft picks for mature players and those keeping draft picks at any cost...

should North have gone after Fev, Ball etc and giving up mid range picks in doing so???

we can now look forward to whether North goes young or mature age and take a punt on a Sewell then this is the year to do it....

 

[muttley45]

as long as we snag gary rohan with pick 5 the rest will fall into place,i have watched this kids highlights package and he has got pace to burn,very good disposal on both feet,and decent body size as well,exactly what we desperately need,we've got the inside grunt with ziebell,swallow,greenwood etc but need that breakneck pace so that when we win it in close we have the linebreaking option available to deliver to forwards QUICKLY would also like to see warren benjamin have a big pre season and get a start in the wizardcup and intraclub games,my on look at him was impressed by his pace