Discussion Drafting Performance StKilda vs Matt Burgen etc.

[SaintsSeptember]

Obviously the Saints have a problem to bridge the gap between our aging champions and the next generation.
Is it because of poor drafting, or is it inevitable due to long periods at the top of the list.

Each year the AFL have an official Phantom Draft by Matt Burgen or whoever. I thought I would score StKilda's drafting against it.
0 = wasted pick. 5 = best outcome in hindsite.

Keep in mind that the phantom draft is done after any good or bad decision to trade draft picks or players.
I could try to award points for sucessfully retaining a player(passing ) rather than recruiting a late pic but its too hard.

I stopped at 2009 since IMO its still too early to judge a lot of the newer kids.

2006:
AFL Phantom:
R1 Mitch Thorpe not Available so dodged a bullet, 2nd choice J Riewoldt (5)
R2 Will Schoefield (4)
R4 Hayden Kiel (0)
R5 Clarke Keating(0)
Also Stefan Martin (0) - Brett Collins (0)

Saints:
R1 Armitage (4)
R2 Howard (0)
R4 Allen (3-4 ) but unlucky
R5 M Fergason (1)
AFL= 9 Saints 9

2007:
AFL Phantom
McEvoy (5)
Kris Kangars (0)
Haelen Kay(0)

Saints
McEvoy (5)
Steven (5)
Eljay Connors (0)
AFL =5 StKilda =10

2008:
AFL: Sam Blease (3-4)
Gaertner (0)
DeBoer Post Gillies and Shiel long gone: mentioned Tayor Hunt(5) ( Had Heyne going at p24 though).

Saints: Lynch (0)
Stanley (5)
Heyne (0)

AFL = 8 Saints =5

2009:
AFL Sam Reid(5)
Winmar (0)
Marcus Davies (0) ( even though not available ).
Josh Donaldson (0)


Saints: Winmar (0)
Jesse Smith (0)
Pattison (1)
Will Johnson (0)

AFL 5 StK 1

Total.
AFL Phantoms : 27
St Kilda : 25

Not really much in it.
So it seems that if our drafting was bad, it wasn't blatently bad.
We could do a similar exercise dealing with our trades, and the outcome of what we traded.
I guess some of those earlier picks would have been good.

In hindsite the loss of Jarryd Allen is a massive one for us, though its still speculation as to what sort of player he would have turned into.

 

[Tongue In Cheek]

It wasn't bad if Matt Burgen (or whoever) was a recognised drafting expert (which he would want to be on pretty good coin for).

Otherwise, for our team of *paid professionals* it was a very poor showing.

 

[Squizz]

Whichever way you want to slice and dice it, we did poorly in 2008 and 2009.

Although to be fair, Lynch now effectively equals Newnes - big tick for current day recruiting versus previous recruiting.

Not sure I can work out your score for Allen in 2006.

And if Gaertner had've got a main list spot, he'd probably be our 200cm lightning quick full back today!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It wasn't bad if Matt Burgen (or whoever) was a recognised drafting expert (which he would want to be on pretty good coin for).

Otherwise, for our team of *paid professionals* it was a very poor showing.

Maybe I should have weighted it more for early picks too.
Getting the best possible round 4 pick maybe doesn't make up for scoring a low score for round 1 or round 2.
Yeah we go Rhys Stanley and Jack Steven, but it would be good to have Jack Riewoldt and Will Schofield right now.

They are also players that would have been more than handy in 2009/10/11 assuming that Ross would have played them.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Whichever way you want to slice and dice it, we did poorly in 2008 and 2009.

Although to be fair, Lynch now effectively equals Newnes - big tick for current day recruiting versus previous recruiting.

Not sure I can work out your score for Allen in 2006.

And if Gaertner had've got a main list spot, he'd probably be our 200cm lightning quick full back today!

Yeah its hard to put a score on Allen. Its far from clear how good a draft choice he was. I guess I was being generous to the recruiters by scoring him as a "good " choice.
The question on Gaertner is why didn't anyone else get him either, and the answer may well have been the attitude issues that ultimately caused him to walk away. ( Not to say that a few more hugs wouldn't have kept him )

 

[Squizz]

Yeah its hard to put a score on Allen. Its far from clear how good a draft choice he was. I guess I was being generous to the recruiters by scoring him as a "good " choice.
The question on Gaertner is why didn't anyone else get him either, and the answer may well have been the attitude issues that ultimately caused him to walk away. ( Not to say that a few more hugs wouldn't have kept him )

Regardless of whether Allen looked like he was going to be handy, you have to rate him like the other picks who got injured after being drafted.

On Gaertner:

(2008) Kevin Sheehan believes Dandenong Stingrays rising star Steven Gaertner has put past demons behind him with two stunning TAC Cup finals performances.

AFL clubs overlooked the 198-centimetre Gaertner in last year’s national draft after he was touted as a potential first-round pick.

The athletic centre half-back also missed initial selection for the Victoria Metro side this year before fighting his way into the squad for the last few games.

But Sheehan was glowing in his appraisal of Gaertner’s finals displays so far.

“He’s a tall boy and they do take a while to get it all together,” Sheehan said.

“He’s had a rollercoaster couple of years, but the last two weeks have been the best footy he’s played.

“His decision-making is still a work-in-progress, but, gee, his run, for a kid of that size, is pretty impressive.”


Not sure clubs knew what to do with him as he was too skinny for the ruck and his kicking was always a bit dodgy, but he developed into a reliable full back at the Zebs. Rarely beaten. Could also pinch hit in the ruck (he built good strength over time).

I know Guide hopped into me after Lenny teased Tom Lynch on "Lunch with Lenny" (as I thought Lynch was clearly affected by a club legend making a fool of him). I watched training one day, and Milne was relentless with Gaertner - continually yelling out at him even though he was in a different group. 24/7 of that shit would present headaches for the best of us. And Lyon used to cheat with the players day off - finding excuses to get them into the club. Makes it hard to have any sort of existence - particularly when you're getting rookie pay (which at the time was pretty lousy).

 

[StFly]

'08 shits me more than anything. Loved Blease, loved what he could do, loved that he was an outside goal kicking mid which we were crying out for and eventually traded for in Lovett and we go Lynch who either couldn't find a place in the side, had a place and wasn't used or never really up to it yet, I was livid he went to Melb.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Obviously the Saints have a problem to bridge the gap between our aging champions and the next generation.
Is it because of poor drafting, or is it inevitable due to long periods at the top of the list.

Each year the AFL have an official Phantom Draft by Matt Burgen or whoever. I thought I would score StKilda's drafting against it.
0 = wasted pick. 5 = best outcome in hindsite.

Keep in mind that the phantom draft is done after any good or bad decision to trade draft picks or players.
I could try to award points for sucessfully retaining a player(passing ) rather than recruiting a late pic but its too hard.

I stopped at 2009 since IMO its still too early to judge a lot of the newer kids.

2006:
AFL Phantom:
R1 Mitch Thorpe not Available so dodged a bullet, 2nd choice J Riewoldt (5)
R2 Will Schoefield (4)
R4 Hayden Kiel (0)
R5 Clarke Keating(0)
Also Stefan Martin (0) - Brett Collins (0)

Saints:
R1 Armitage (4)
R2 Howard (0)
R4 Allen (3-4 ) but unlucky
R5 M Fergason (1)
AFL= 9 Saints 9

2007:
AFL Phantom
McEvoy (5)
Kris Kangars (0)
Haelen Kay(0)

Saints
McEvoy (5)
Steven (5)
Eljay Connors (0)
AFL =5 StKilda =10

2008:
AFL: Sam Blease (3-4)
Gaertner (0)
DeBoer Post Gillies and Shiel long gone: mentioned Tayor Hunt(5) ( Had Heyne going at p24 though).

Saints: Lynch (0)
Stanley (5)
Heyne (0)

AFL = 8 Saints =5

2009:
AFL Sam Reid(5)
Winmar (0)
Marcus Davies (0) ( even though not available ).
Josh Donaldson (0)


Saints: Winmar (0)
Jesse Smith (0)
Pattison (1)
Will Johnson (0)

AFL 5 StK 1

Total.
AFL Phantoms : 27
St Kilda : 25

Not really much in it.
So it seems that if our drafting was bad, it wasn't blatently bad.
We could do a similar exercise dealing with our trades, and the outcome of what we traded.
I guess some of those earlier picks would have been good.

In hindsite the loss of Jarryd Allen is a massive one for us, though its still speculation as to what sort of player he would have turned into.

Well done on your work with this, very interesting. Just behind AFL Phantom Draft, which isn't a great rap, when we have full time recruitment staff. Some of the recruits were at direction of Lyin for gaps, particular players, structure etc that he wanted.

You would have to think that over the next batch of years, our recruitment will have done so much better.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Well done on your work with this, very interesting. Just behind AFL Phantom Draft, which isn't a great rap, when we have full time recruitment staff. Some of the recruits were at direction of Lyin for gaps, particular players, structure etc that he wanted.

You would have to think that over the next batch of years, our recruitment will have done so much better.

Thats the thing, if the club had completely ignored the recruitment and had just picked names out of the HUN the week before, they'd have done slightly better.

 

[Strahany]

In what episode was Lenny paying out on Lynch?

 

[Squizz]

'08 shits me more than anything. Loved Blease, loved what he could do, loved that he was an outside goal kicking mid which we were crying out for and eventually traded for in Lovett and we go Lynch who either couldn't find a place in the side, had a place and wasn't used or never really up to it yet, I was livid he went to Melb.

Then you'll love this.

"People have to remember that we took in Farren Ray and he’s part of our influx of players. Once we did that it changed our direction and what we did with pick 13 because Farren is going to give us some run and carry through the midfield and play half-back too."

Best available doesn't seem to have come into it. And it didn't seem to bother them that he'd had a reco the year before.

When I heard Blease was linked to us, I was pretty happy too. A real dasher, which seemed a real issue for our list back then.

 

[Squizz]

In what episode was Lenny paying out on Lynch?

Introduced him as this bloke:

And that was it for Tom on "Lunch with Lenny".

Some may say "harden up" but I assume trying to create an environment where the younger guys feel comfortable and play to their potential. Or maybe in the Lyon days (with it all being about 25 players) you can chip and pisstake at anyone you like.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

As far as trades go.

2006:
W.Coast : Pick 43 from Saints (Tim Houlihan) : For Birss ( pick 59 ) + M Gardiner
St Kilda wins.

2007: Sydney: Pick 26,( Brett Merideth ) : for Schnieder and Dempster.
I'd take it as a win.
Also Charlie Gardiner and King for unused pick 90.

2008:
Bulldogs pick 31( Jordan Roughead ) for Ray and Heyne.
Short term advantage to StKilda , long term win by Dogs.

2009:
Essendon part payment for Williams , Decent pick for Pittard ( Crows ) , Lovett StKilda
Poor outcome for both StKilda and Essendon.

Freo P48 ( Chrighton ) for Peake. Short term gain to StKilda. Crighton may or may not work out to be a GOP.

 

[sammm]

As far as trades go.

2006:
W.Coast : Pick 43 from Saints (Tim Houlihan) : For Birss ( pick 59 ) + M Gardiner
St Kilda wins.

2007: Sydney: Pick 26,( Brett Merideth ) : for Schnieder and Dempster.
I'd take it as a win.
Also Charlie Gardiner and King for unused pick 90.

2008:
Bulldogs pick 31( Jordan Roughead ) for Ray and Heyne.
Short term advantage to StKilda , long term win by Dogs.

2009:
Essendon part payment for Williams , Decent pick for Pittard ( Crows ) , Lovett StKilda
Poor outcome for both StKilda and Essendon.

Freo P48 ( Chrighton ) for Peake. Short term gain to StKilda. Crighton may or may not work out to be a GOP.

well those trades don't make me feel too bad about how and who we traded.

as said earlier, i also wanted Sam Blease and i wanted Reiwoldt instead of Armitage.

 

[Axcellence]

I wanted Selwood! But damned cats got him 1 before our pick which got us Armitage (2006 draft).

 

[Squizz]

well those trades don't make me feel too bad about how and who we traded.

as said earlier, i also wanted Sam Blease and i wanted Reiwoldt instead of Armitage.

I was OK with the decision to pass on Riewoldt (who was to know he'd grow significantly after being drafted), but I wanted Frawley - don't think we'd be too worried about full back now!

 

[Squizz]

I wanted Selwood! But damned cats got him 1 before our pick which got us Armitage (2006 draft).

Think it was a fair surprise he slipped that far. Burgan had him going at 4!

This article was interesting.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/national-draft-dissected/story-e6frf9if-1111112578258

TOP 30 PROSPECTS FOR SATURDAY'S NATIONAL DRAFT
JARRYD ALLEN
Showed his versatility playing forward, back and in the ruck in Calder's losing TAC Cup Grand Final side, collecting 25 possessions and two goals for his troubles. Strong marking is a feature of his game and was named All-Australian. Booted 46 goals in 18 games with the Cannons this season.
Where he will go? With its midfield stocks brimming, Melbourne (pick 12) will be on the lookout for promising key position types with Allen fitting the bill nicely.

DAVID ARMITAGE
Athletic midfielder/defender who impressed at draft camp with the quickest time (7.88sec) in the agility test. Also recorded a beep test of 14.2 and a 3km time of 10min 35sec, ranking him in the top 15 per cent of players tested. All-Australian at U18 level and an AIS/AFL Academy Graduate.
Where he will go? Is he a top 10 pick? If so, Collingwood (pick 8) looks his likely home while the Western Bulldogs (pick 11) - who love athletic footballers - surely wouldn't let him slip.

NATHAN BROWN
Can play deep in defence or attack. Brown has attracted significant interest after several standout performances in the under-18 national championships, earning him All-Australian full-back honours. Quick off the mark, his 20m sprint and repeat sprints were a highlight at draft camp, recording 2.91sec (top 3 per cent) for the 20m sprint and 25.07sec (top 8 per cent) for the repeat sprint test.
Where he will go? Definitely a top 10 prospect and with new St Kilda coach Ross Lyon in need of a full-back, it is possible the Saints will use their No.9 pick to take him.

JOEL SELWOOD A most impressive young footballer and leader who was plagued by a knee injury this year, playing just three games with Bendigo in the TAC Cup. A hard-at-it ball-winner with silky skills, he can play in the midfield or defence. The brother of twins Adam and Troy, Selwood won All-Australian honours in 2005 and was the Barassi Medallist (best player) against Ireland last year at under-17 level.
Where he will go? If still available by pick 6, Hawthorn would be crazy not to take him. Selwood has fully recovered from knee troubles and will slot in perfectly to either the Hawks' midfield or defence.

DAVID HASTIE'S POSSIBLE TOP 10
1. Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)
2. Matthew Leuenberger (Essendon)
3. Lachlan Hansen (Kangaroos)
4. Scott Gumbleton (Brisbane)
5. James Sellar (Port Adelaide)
6. Joel Selwood (Hawthorn)
7. Travis Boak (Geelong)
8. Mitchell Thorp (Collingwood)
9. Nathan Brown (St Kilda)
10. Leroy Jetta (Collingwood)

 

[Zagg]

Looking at one person's (Matt Burgan's) prediction is a rather limited exercise. I think it's better to look at the whole draft class and judge the picks based on the depth and quality in the draft given the picks the club has/had.

It was disappointing to fail so badly in 2008 & 2009, which both now look like very strong drafts. If we'd drafted well in those years we'd have probably made the finals this year and would be well set for the next 5 years. As it is we picked up 1 very promising player who's still a fair way away from being a regular consistent contributor.

 

[CHBench]

2009 was an absolute disaster. And it looks even more pathetic when you compare it to what Geelong did.

 

[Axcellence]

Leave others... Selwood was rated no.1 before his injury... Yet like Judd's his injury worries were blown up.

Now - I want Jake Stringer drafted who like Selwood has been rated down due to injury concerns.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Some more interesting stuff from Burgen.

5 – ESSENDON – MICHAEL HURLEY Northern Knights, VIC, Tall defender, June 1, 1990, 192.5cm, 91.8kg
(Draft range: 4-8)

Another tantalising scenario looms at No.5. Will the Dons opt for a midfielder/running type or a tall? The prospect of securing Hurley – widely regarded as the best key defender in the draft – appears too good to pass up, considering that Mal Michael has retired and Dustin Fletcher is nearing the end of his stellar career. Hurley has been strongly linked at this pick and Carlton (6), and is unlikely to slide further. One recruiting manager regarded Hurley as one of the top two players in this year's draft. Two smokies have been linked at No.5 – Ashley Smith and Nick Heyne – although it appears too early for them.

24 – FREMANTLE – NICK HEYNE Gippsland Power, VIC, Medium forward, July 22 1990, 188.2cm, 79.1kg
(Draft range: 5-30)

Heyne's rating has lifted considerably in recent times, with him linked to Essendon as a No.5 bolter. More likely he looms as a first-round/20s selection. Essendon will again closely monitor him at No.23. Ballantyne, Walters, Blight, Shuey, Robinson and Liam Jones will also be in contention.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Anyone think Heyne might have done better under Watters...?

Admittedly languishing the Dev Squad for Sandy at the end of your 3rd year is never a good sign.

 

[hayes]

I don't think any coach could've save Heyne.

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Nick Heyne no good. Just got delisted from Carlton and McQualter also delisted from Gold Coast.

 

[Falchoon]

Leave others... Selwood was rated no.1 before his injury... Yet like Judd's his injury worries were blown up.

Now - I want Jake Stringer drafted who like Selwood has been rated down due to injury concerns.

Caveat Emptor

Pelchen's 2nd & 3rd picks in the 2005 draft, Beau Muston and Beau Dowler fell down the draft order due to injury concerns, & played less than 25 games between them.


http://www.vicfootball.com.au/vic-football-articles/2005/11/27/discards-rejected-again/

Hawthorn was the major beneficiary of the injury plague. The Hawks were able to recruit the two Beaus - Dowler and Muston - because no other club, with the possible exception of Collingwood, had sufficient early picks to punt on Dowler's pelvis holding together and Muston winning his battle of wounded knee.