CrazyKenny
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- Jul 21, 2015
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Harsh, he put a lot of effort in...
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Draw Difficulty ranking by the numbers
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You only specified that for the team traveling to Geelong. not the impact it has on Geelong. I thought that might be the case but it was conspicuously absent in the description.
- Jul 15, 2014
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why is Essendon above other teams when they have been rated the easiest by multiple websites
Tas
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TheBrownDog
- Dec 23, 2002
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A number of teams should have variable ratings, teams like Essendon and Collingwood come out hot early, talk about premiership glory before fading in the second half of the season and barely or not make the top 8.
boncer34
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Any measure that uses subjective metrics is going to have issues
Using objective measures such as games won or final ladder positions (after finals) will still have flaws - but less so.
As it stands - Adelaide have the hardest draw and Ess/Gee the easiest
Using objective measures such as games won or final ladder positions (after finals) will still have flaws - but less so.
As it stands - Adelaide have the hardest draw and Ess/Gee the easiest
- Aug 28, 2013
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But travel, days off between games and home ground advanatges do have an effect on the toughness of a draw. Any system that at least tries to take thse factors into account (and it will inevitability be subjective unfortunately) is better than a system that doesnt in my opinion.
Heaps of newspapers etc are saying we have second toughest draw behind adelaide, but we play 16 games at etihad or hobart and an extra game at the G. Only go to perth once and adelaide once. And we Have a clump of non finalists in the first 10 games that could really help us momentum wise.
GWS GIANTS:
away vs Melbourne...........5
home vs Geelong.............6
away vs Sydney...............8
home vs Port Adelaide.......6
away vs St.Kilda..............6
home vs Hawthorn..........8
away vs Fremantle...........9
home vs Gold Coast..........5
home vs Bulldogs............6
away vs Adelaide.............8
away vs Geelong..............8 (at Kardinia Park only)
home vs Sydney...............7
away vs Essendon............5
home vs Carlton...............2
home vs Collingwood........ 6
away vs Brisbane.............5
away vs Port Adelaide.......8
home vs Richmond...........6
away vs Gold Coast..........7
home vs West Coast.........7
home vs Fremantle...........7
away vs North.Melb..........7
Total = 142
away vs Melbourne...........5
home vs Geelong.............6
away vs Sydney...............8
home vs Port Adelaide.......6
away vs St.Kilda..............6
home vs Hawthorn..........8
away vs Fremantle...........9
home vs Gold Coast..........5
home vs Bulldogs............6
away vs Adelaide.............8
away vs Geelong..............8 (at Kardinia Park only)
home vs Sydney...............7
away vs Essendon............5
home vs Carlton...............2
home vs Collingwood........ 6
away vs Brisbane.............5
away vs Port Adelaide.......8
home vs Richmond...........6
away vs Gold Coast..........7
home vs West Coast.........7
home vs Fremantle...........7
away vs North.Melb..........7
Total = 142
Montana2Rice
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Seriously where do these numbers come from, if it's not thin air? A decent system would at least try and be LESS subjective.
Another poster pointed out 6 day breaks, prior year ladder positions or win loss records may be helpful in determining draw difficulty.
But this system just grades on a totally arbitrary 1-10 scale based on the op's assessment of various home/neutral ground advantages and strength of team.
For example, why is home v north worth 6 and home v collingwood worth 6, yet collingwood finished miserably, and kangaroos made PF? Away vs geelong at kardinia is an 8, yet away v rich, north and Bulldogs is 7. Last year if I recall, Melbourne beat geelong at kardinia (in enrights 300th).
And early in the year, freo and north both won at kardinia, and an absolutely crap Suns team only lost because selwood played awesome and the Suns were without gaj and some others. So why is kardinia a fortress?
And neutral v Hawks is 9, home v west coast is 7?
And why home v essendon 3, home v st kikda 4? So you're saying essendon are an easier team than st.kilda? True, st.kilda smashed the bombers in 2015, but it's interesting a bombers fan believes st kilda will still be better next year. I salute you on your realistic appraisal of your team's chances next year.
Maybe start with Hawks at 18, eagles at 17, dockers 16 ... down to blues at 1. You could even just evaluate the 5 double ups. No idea who bombers play twice, but Hawks play swans (14), north (15), eagles (17), tigers (11) and demons (low number, give you zero, not as an insult but I can't be bothered finding real number and it's not making Hawks draw harder) twice next year. So that adds up to 57 plus whatever you give Melbourne. Interesting to see another team with their 5 double ups greater than 60.
Anyway, going into this year, Hawks had a hard draw, who knew port, bombers and cats would ALL miss finals? So draw toughness is arbitrary.
After finishing 15th in 2015, Essendon is the only team that does not play a top-six team from 2015 twice next season.
That's opponents strength, not to much to look into, another one was a champion data stat but I can't access it because I'm not a digitial member
- Aug 6, 2013
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Essendon's draw is easy based on double ups, but they need to play West Coast, Freo, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, and Sydney all at their home grounds.
- Aug 22, 2009
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This analysis has Essendon as second easiest: http://m.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news...-real-winners-and-losers-20151030-gkmur1.html
Our draw is easy as hell, we only play teams who finished below us.
Good old Rohan's fixture rating.
It would be good, but he treats sold home games as away games.
A Hawk game against Freo in Tassie actually adds to Hawthorn's travel and also isn't counted as a home game against an interstate team!!
Hawthorn and North thus are always given additional travel points, both have 11 when the other vic teams who don't have a 'second home' would only be given 7.
Then the Home v Interstate scale the Hawks and North both get 8 as they supposedly only play two home games against interstate opposition, conveniently ignoring the home games in Tassie.
Laughable that he always treats the Tassie games as if they are not home games.
Hawks always inflated by 6-7 points due to the non-existent Tassie fixture 'disadvantage' that he adds.
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- Aug 22, 2009
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It's ridiculous.
A plane trip to Tassie would be much like a bus trip to Geelong
- Jul 1, 2014
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And we only play teams that finished above us! Proof of anti-Carlton fixture manipulation at AFL House.Our draw is easy as hell, we only play teams who finished below us.
Tas
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TheBrownDog
- Dec 23, 2002
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Richmond is more prone to do a North and start shit and come home stronger.
Fabes
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This is pretty cool mate. Well done! Although I don't understand where you found the time to think this up and then apply it!! But good on you
