DT Rucks 2010

[Cartman121]

A couple of points against Jollly:

I'd have to disagree to an extent that Jolly will score more due to Collingwood playing a more attacking style of gameplay and him picking up more touches around the ground. He only averaged 11.8 disposals per game and 4 marks with a kick:handball ratio of 1:1 (pretty terrible) last year. He's never been a very mobile ruckman so I struggle to see him really picking up that many more touches/marks in the Collinwood side, and they aren't exactly going to be looking for him to be a link up man. In 2010 Jolly scored 1910 DT points for an average of 86.8 per game, 682 points of these were from hitouts, just under 36% of his total score for the year! So clearly he relies heavily on this. As Daggersworth mentioned with Sydney's lock-up style of play there was a considerable more amount of stoppages compared to other clubs, and with Jolly pretty much the soul ruckman he was able to receive a large amount hitouts this way - IMO will probably decline at Collingwood; sharing ruck duties with Frasier won't help him either.

Yes he is extremely durable, hasn't missed a game in the past 4 seasons playing all 96 games. In '05 he played 24 out of a possible 26 games. So an unbelievable games record. But in this time he has averaged:

2009:86.8
2008: 73.5
2007: 68.5
2006: 57.3
2005: 53.4

A nice upward trend but I personally think he hit his peak last year, has never been a good fantasy player with the exception of last year and there are a number of question marks surrounding him at Collingwood.

If anyone knows how to find the stats for amount of stoppages per club that would be great to compare Sydney to Collingwood.

 

[Cartman121]

Let me just throw this one out there; James Sellar. Before having a laugh and shooting me down consider the following.

Colin Wisbey Pre Draft Synopsis

195cm skilled, well-built footballer with athleticism, smarts, hands, disposal. Flaky '06, intensity query but you don't physically lose what he had displayed prior. Very bottom-age. I'm prepared to virtually ignore '06 as he apparently had to endure various on and off-field difficulties. In the '04 and '05 U16 Champs, I considered him even more impressive than Gibbs.

Started 2006 as #1 in my rankings (Gibbs #2). In the end, Gibbs' performances were just so compelling, and without the queries that Sellar's '06 form raised, that I had to slip Sellar behind but I dropped off him only marginally. Even in his "disappointing" '06, he kicked 4g in 1st half of his 1st SANFL Seniors game (as CHF!), beat the highly rated Gumbleton as CHB, and averaged 17 disposals in the U18 Champs. (How many 195cm types, let alone any who had just lost 8kg through illness, do that in any U18 Champs?). By comparison, we were all quite satisfied with the Champs form of Gumbleton, Hansen and Leunberger, and they averaged 15, 13, and 11 disposals respectively and Sellar's disposal was the best of the lot. He even had 15d in just the 2nd 1/2 of one Champs game (albeit as virtually a loose wingman). Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. He did NOT have a disappointing year for a bottom-age 195cm kid, even a highly rated one. He just had a disappointing year for Sellar, based on our expectations of him specifically.

The bolded is what I found most interesting.

Read that he was very upset at himself for having a poor '08 and was doing everything he could to prove he could make it at AFL level. In the '09 he completed one and a 1/2 hours of extra bike work after EVERY training session; each session only went for three and 1/2 hours so that's quite impressive. This pre-season has bulked up and looks massive, a complete different person to when he first joined the club. Remembering that he was picked at #12 in '06 so he certainly has potential. Played the last 11 games of last season (inc. 2 finals) in the ruck due to Moran's injury. Obviously being a big man they take longer to develop, but being priced at 36.9 I think there's enough room for a 15-20+ point improvement. Plan would be to then upgrade to Sandi/Cox at about RD 8 when they've (hopefully) fallen in price.

Going into his 3rd season, but really only his 2nd in terms of games played. Looking at Tippet and Kreuzer (two modern day ruckman) last season both going into their 2nd seasons. Kreuzer, 54 average improved to 76. Tippet, 41 average improved to 72. An improvement of 22 points and 31 points respectively.

Sellar showed some potential grabbing 19 disposals in RD 22 against Carlton for 70 DT points, not bad for a big man considering it was only his 10th AFL game. Again the week after in the EF racked up 63 points from 9 disposals, 6 marks, 17 hitouts and a goal against Essendon. Haven't looked into his stats but was touted as a very good player in his junior days - as hinted in the article above.

The big question mark is if he's best 22 - Adelaide have a lot of depth and he's certainly not a shoe-in despite playing the last 11 games, but he's round about the mark. Thoughts?

Of course then there's the stance that he's a "dud" in terms of DT and will never be a large accumulator of the footy. But I think there is a large enough scope for natural improvement. He's one i'll be watching closely in the NAB.

 

[Scottydude]

You couldnt pick sellar as a number one or two ruck yet but why not on the bench? last year my ruck rookies played one game each, why not pay a lil more for someone who is going to get games at 160k he is not much more than the mid rookies and he should score around 50 with natural progression. what will that bump his price 2?

 

[Virgil]

Sellar showed some potential grabbing 19 disposals in RD 22 against Carlton for 70 DT points, not bad for a big man considering it was only his 10th AFL game. Again the week after in the EF racked up 63 points from 9 disposals, 6 marks, 17 hitouts and a goal against Essendon. Haven't looked into his stats but was touted as a very good player in his junior days - as hinted in the article above.

The big question mark is if he's best 22 - Adelaide have a lot of depth and he's certainly not a shoe-in despite playing the last 11 games, but he's round about the mark. Thoughts?

On this, Sellar scored 17 hit outs against a side that had no ruckman in it, and his two highest scores came in 16 goal and 12 goal wins. His next highest score was 42.

I think being a second ruckman he doesn't have the scope to put together the kind of scores you'd want him to, and with competition from Moran there's no certainty that he'll remain in the side.

 

[Cartman121]

You couldnt pick sellar as a number one or two ruck yet but why not on the bench? last year my ruck rookies played one game each, why not pay a lil more for someone who is going to get games at 160k he is not much more than the mid rookies and he should score around 50 with natural progression. what will that bump his price 2?

Not a big fan of spending that much on a bench player when he'd only be covering two spots.

On this, Sellar scored 17 hit outs against a side that had no ruckman in it, and his two highest scores came in 16 goal and 12 goal wins. His next highest score was 42.

I think being a second ruckman he doesn't have the scope to put together the kind of scores you'd want him to, and with competition from Moran there's no certainty that he'll remain in the side.

Apparently Moran has had another setback so Sellar might start in the side come RD 1, but the highlighted is a worry. Will certainly be an extremely risky pick with minimal job security and potentially not enough upside to warrant selection; but i'll still be keeping an eye on him in the NAB and intra-club matches.

 

[Thumpy]

You'd be mad if you picked Sellar, even as a bench ruckman.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

Yep agree...

Sellar <=> Spudicus Gigantus

 

[Cartman121]

You'd be mad if you picked Sellar, even as a bench ruckman.

Yep agree...

Sellar <=> Spudicus Gigantus

Appreciate your opinions but it would be good if you could add something as to why you've come to such a conclusion...

 

[Crow_68]

You'd be mad if you picked Sellar, even as a bench ruckman.

You might find Sellar playing down back before the season is out - an opportunity to gather stats?

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

Appreciate your opinions but it would be good if you could add something as to why you've come to such a conclusion...

Some things don't need paragraphs of qualification.

Sellar and DT are mutually exclusive... nuff said.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

You might find Sellar playing down back before the season is out - an opportunity to gather stats?

Stats like dropped marks, missed tackles etc. etc.
Unfortunately these "stats" don't assist the serious DTer.

 

[CuriousObsession]

I think he can average 60. More mobile, can play up forward, hitouts. hoping for 60.

in the SANFL last week (http://sanfl.com.au/files/_system/File/PDFs/stats/2009/R22/R22_west_north.pdf)

4 kicks, 3 marks, 5 handballs 1 free for, 3 free against 1 goal and 32 hitouts and 6 tackles (which is 85 DT points). Sure it is SANFL not AFL and he may not get as much TOG, but he gets tackles which i like.

round 22 85
round 21 70
round 20 72
round 19 116

Thought I might bring back this old post of Chad, to basically demonstrate for me why, along with Williams' comments, Lobbe will be my 3rd Ruck. Although it is SANFL, that to me demonstrates that Lobbe has a good scoring potential. A 60 Average would see him mack 100 K quickly and allow me to double trade up say Martin or Trengrove up to a Keeper / Premium at around round 10.

I will also not to be using this DP thing and putting Lobbe and the forward bench, because I like at the moment my forward rookies (Gumbleton and Dennis-Lane) and only one of my playing rucks ATM is R/F (Tippett), so Lobbe would only be covering Tippett and not Kreuzer.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Is it just me or does every single potential premium ruck have some sort of question mark over their head?

Cox - Durability worries, will drop in price, interrupted pre-season.
Sandilands - Only one year of good scoring, may be overpriced.
Clark - Was pretty much the only ruckman last year, will have to fight with Leuey and Charman for gametime this year.
McIntosh - Hasn't scored well with Goldstein in the side, Goldstein will be playing more and more as time goes on.
Fraser - Might not even be best 22.
Petrie - A move into the forward line has been forecast, and it's harder for a tall to get the ball in the forward line than anywhere else on the park.
Jolly - Less stoppages could equal less hitouts, only one year of good scoring, like Clark his side only had one decent ruckman last year and now has three.
Ryder - Only played one good season, not sure how Hille's return will affect him.
Kreuzer - Will probably spend more time up forward, see Drew Petrie. If the bastards hadn't traded Fev he'd be a lock for me.
Tippett - Will be played mostly as a stay-at-home forward, which is hardly conducive to high DT scores.
Brogan - Getting on in years, has never been a big DT scorer, not overly mobile, not very durable.

ATM I'm leaning towards Sandi, but I'm not really 100% confident in any of them. I really, really wish Brennan had ruck eligibility.

 

[Scottydude]

Is it just me or does every single potential premium ruck have some sort of question mark over their head?

Cox - Durability worries, will drop in price, interrupted pre-season.
Sandilands - Only one year of good scoring, may be overpriced.
Clark - Was pretty much the only ruckman last year, will have to fight with Leuey and Charman for gametime this year.
McIntosh - Hasn't scored well with Goldstein in the side, Goldstein will be playing more and more as time goes on.
Fraser - Might not even be best 22.
Petrie - A move into the forward line has been forecast, and it's harder for a tall to get the ball in the forward line than anywhere else on the park.
Jolly - Less stoppages could equal less hitouts, only one year of good scoring, like Clark his side only had one decent ruckman last year and now has three.
Ryder - Only played one good season, not sure how Hille's return will affect him.
Kreuzer - Will probably spend more time up forward, see Drew Petrie. If the bastards hadn't traded Fev he'd be a lock for me.
Tippett - Will be played mostly as a stay-at-home forward, which is hardly conducive to high DT scores.
Brogan - Getting on in years, has never been a big DT scorer, not overly mobile, not very durable.

ATM I'm leaning towards Sandi, but I'm not really 100% confident in any of them. I really, really wish Brennan had ruck eligibility.

Your a glass half full sort of guy arent you!If Kreuzer gets as much ball kicked to him as fev did the will score 1000's, if tippet is crows number one forward (he is) he will improve with the crows. Sandi is 11 foot tall and will continue to get the ball, Jolly in a better side, Cox always has been and will always be a gun! look at the positives mate!

 

[Schulzenfest]

Your a glass half full sort of guy arent you!If Kreuzer gets as much ball kicked to him as fev did the will score 1000's, if tippet is crows number one forward (he is) he will improve with the crows. Sandi is 11 foot tall and will continue to get the ball, Jolly in a better side, Cox always has been and will always be a gun! look at the positives mate!

I'm not saying that they'll all fail, I'm just saying that they all have some sort of question mark over their head. When I pick a keeper I like to be as close to 100% confident that they'll achieve what I'm hoping for as possible, and I'm not anywhere near it with any of those options.

 

[makingmemark]

I'm not saying that they'll all fail, I'm just saying that they all have some sort of question mark over their head. When I pick a keeper I like to be as close to 100% confident that they'll achieve what I'm hoping for as possible, and I'm not anywhere near it with any of those options.

I agree mate, RUCKs are a lot harder decision this year.
I'm looking at Brogan / Kruzer, with Lobbe on the bench.
Brogan avg'd 97.6 over the last 5 games of the year last year, which shows his scoring potential and should indicate he has plenty of fuel left in him.

And if he does go down, I've got Lobbe who should slot right in. And if not, maybe I can swap Tippet with Lobbe using the DP tactic, provided my FWD emg's are playing.

 

[citrusjuice]

Is it just me or does every single potential premium ruck have some sort of question mark over their head?

Cox - Durability worries, will drop in price, interrupted pre-season.
Sandilands - Only one year of good scoring, may be overpriced.
Clark - Was pretty much the only ruckman last year, will have to fight with Leuey and Charman for gametime this year.
McIntosh - Hasn't scored well with Goldstein in the side, Goldstein will be playing more and more as time goes on.
Fraser - Might not even be best 22.
Petrie - A move into the forward line has been forecast, and it's harder for a tall to get the ball in the forward line than anywhere else on the park.
Jolly - Less stoppages could equal less hitouts, only one year of good scoring, like Clark his side only had one decent ruckman last year and now has three.
Ryder - Only played one good season, not sure how Hille's return will affect him.
Kreuzer - Will probably spend more time up forward, see Drew Petrie. If the bastards hadn't traded Fev he'd be a lock for me.
Tippett - Will be played mostly as a stay-at-home forward, which is hardly conducive to high DT scores.
Brogan - Getting on in years, has never been a big DT scorer, not overly mobile, not very durable.

ATM I'm leaning towards Sandi, but I'm not really 100% confident in any of them. I really, really wish Brennan had ruck eligibility.

Everything you wrote there is what i was or am thinking about atm. Had Brennan locked as my no.1 ruck but now i picked Sandi - im sure he will average the same as last year. My 2nd ruckmen is a concern, i have Kreuzer now but i may change him based on nab performances...I don't think he will score as much as he is capable of he just sits in the forward line. Also considering Ryder very carefully - no one has mentioned him much but his averaged around 87 since Hille was out. - I hope he stays as the main ruckman (Read somewhere Essendon may use Hille as a FWD) so that sounds good!

Also stay away from Ottens and Simmonds definately lol - toooo injury proneeeeeee

 

[Kevin McAllister]

Everything you wrote there is what i was or am thinking about atm. Had Brennan locked as my no.1 ruck but now i picked Sandi - im sure he will average the same as last year. My 2nd ruckmen is a concern, i have Kreuzer now but i may change him based on nab performances...I don't think he will score as much as he is capable of he just sits in the forward line. Also considering Ryder very carefully - no one has mentioned him much but his averaged around 87 since Hille was out. - I hope he stays as the main ruckman (Read somewhere Essendon may use Hille as a FWD) so that sounds good!

Also stay away from Ottens and Simmonds definately lol - toooo injury proneeeeeee

I don't think anyone will be touching Simmonds

 

[kfleong2000]

Sandilands is a 211cm lock for me.

Mainly because Freo have no other decent ruck options and he showed last year that he is capable of getting his hands dirty - Rhys Palmer coming back may impact on the amount of work he has to do in the contest, but I am confident that he can maintain his average and that he will get plenty of game time, at least in the first two-thirds of the season.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Everything you wrote there is what i was or am thinking about atm. Had Brennan locked as my no.1 ruck but now i picked Sandi - im sure he will average the same as last year. My 2nd ruckmen is a concern, i have Kreuzer now but i may change him based on nab performances...I don't think he will score as much as he is capable of he just sits in the forward line. Also considering Ryder very carefully - no one has mentioned him much but his averaged around 87 since Hille was out. - I hope he stays as the main ruckman (Read somewhere Essendon may use Hille as a FWD) so that sounds good!

The problem is that Ryder spent most of last year with next to no competition. Even if Hille is used mainly as a forward, he'll still ruck occasionally whether Ryder plays No. 1 or not. Ryder averaged 97 minutes last year, which is a lot for any ruckman, even a clear No. 1. Plus there's always the temptation to drop him back into defence where he used to play, although IMO he's a better ruckman than defender.

That said, right now he's my current premium ruck selection. The three ruckmen that I'm closest to being confident with are Sandi, Ryder and Brogan (averaged 81 last year in matches where he played 85 or more minutes, which he'll probably do more often than not this year with Lade gone. He'd be a lock for mine if I wasn't worried about his durability), who are all at different price ranges. Which price fits my structure best by the end of the pre-season will probably be a major factor in which one I end up with.

 

[Virgil]

West Coast to apply some shrinkage to their Big Cox:

West Coast will lighten the load on Dean Cox this year, with the multiple All-Australian ruckman poised to start the season against Brisbane at the Gabba with a new look in a bid to take his running game to unprecedented levels.

...

The Eagles are confident they will trim him down to about 100kg this season, his lightest for six years, enabling him to maximise his freakish aerobic capacity that has run so many of his rivals ragged and made him the premier ruckman in the competition.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/eagles/6741070/west-coast-big-man-to-run-and-stun/

 

[BACCS]

Gone with Ryder and Kreuzer, and then Warnock and Lobbe for the bench. Still really iffy though on how they will line up at final lockout, not as clear cut as other years!

 

[Scottydude]

my big downer on brogan is when port start loosing every game (they will) wont they give lobbe more time to get him ready for the future

 

[Kevin McAllister]

For those who are currently considering a Kruezer and Tippett ruck combo, would you classify them both keepers or would you need to upgrade one or both?

I personally hope both can average 80 so I am classifying them both as keepers for now, however I am uncertain if they can actually both average above 80 and stay in my team for the duration.

 

[Scratchy]

I've gone Sandi Kreuzer Warnock Lobbe. Tippett in the Fwd line to swap with Lobbe if Sandi or Kreuzer miss a game, as long as one of my Fwd EMGs are playing (and they damn well better if the time comes). Haha the whole DP thing spins my head a bit.