Play Nice Dustin Martin to North | 31/8: DM signed at RFC for 1.3m/7yrs

[Horace]

He is only going to be around for the next 6 to 7 yrs and we both know where you guys will be for the bulk of those and thats definitely sitting under us ,add to that our 2 first rounders and he would see the obvious option

Go on mate.

We shall see. We at least have an excuse for our performance this year. But your mob were expected to take the next step and make the 8 and go deep into the finals. Instead they have been absolutely underwhelming this year.

But then why would we expect anything else. One flag, that's right 1 flag in the history of the world.

 

[giantroo]

 

[kangaspurs]

I have to say it again, but I don't even care if we miss out on Dusty - I never expected that we'd get him anyway, despite Philly's infectious optimism - but the ride has been ****ing brilliant, this thread has been entertaining from page 1 and the melts from the Richmond fans/board have been delicious. Even if we miss out it will have all been worth it.

 

[Horace]

Why would anyone want to discuss anything trade related with Ralphy? He has less idea than our cat who spends most of his time asleep on the couch.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I have to say it again, but I don't even care if we miss out on Dusty - I never expected that we'd get him anyway, despite Philly's infectious optimism - but the ride has been ******* brilliant, this thread has been entertaining from page 1 and the melts from the Richmond fans/board have been delicious. Even if we miss out it will have all been worth it.

Yep, win-win situation for me too, I have loved the ride, I could care less if we miss out on him, the Tugger's and now the moral Saints about Josh Kelly are melting up a storm about it all, it is beautiful for someone like me.

 

[Grockadoc]

Have you forgotten your club low balled him last time he renewed his contract.

On EVA-L19 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Sorry but this is a Myth. If we lowballed him, EVERY club lowballed him. We paid his market value at the time. Was not a lowball offer. We paid him more than most clubs were offering him at the time.

 

[King Corey]

Jon Ralph

✔@RalphyHeraldSun
Blogging live 2.30pm about anything trade related. Dusty staying or leaving for 15 1st round draft picks/Lever to the tigers?/rumours of McGovern to Punt Road/Ablett to help tiges go back to back?/Rocky in the yellow and black?/Gibbs about to go south.. about 3 km south to Richmond Station?/Kelly courted by a mystery suitor currently in the top 4?/Hopper keen to play under Hardwick?/Smith who tf is Smith?. Anything you want to discuss that ends in a verbal spunk off about Richmond. https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/900198677679153152 …

2:21 PM - Aug 23, 2017

 

[giantroo]

Dustin Martin is worth every dollar clubs throw at him, writes Jon Ralph
JON RALPH, Herald Sun

IF you writing a $10 million cheque, you don’t want it to bounce.

This week Richmond’s wasted investment in Chris Yarran has resurfaced at the same time as they are weighing the risks of a Dustin Martin mega-deal.

Should the Tigers match a rival bid at any cost, or is there a breaking point at which Martin’s price becomes overblown?


Time will tell, but paying most 26-year-olds more than $1.2 million over seven years borders on insanity.

Not Dustin Martin.

Martin is about to show his limitations as a marketing figure, set to win every AFL end-of-year award on offer and unlikely to provide a series of riveting interviews.


Already Richmond and media organisations are this week starting to work through how they tackle that challenge, given Martin is the most reluctant of interviewees.

But on every score so far Martin is worth whatever money anyone wants to throw at him.

Few players have provided the bang for buck Martin has, the durability, the star power, the membership draw, the consistent matchwinning performances.

There is a strong argument to say that Martin has been among the four most consistent players in the AFL these past eight seasons.

He’s clearly not the greatest — September heroics play a part in that judgment.

Yet if you were considering the risk-reward proposition of signing him on a seven-year deal of $8.4 million or above, he ticks every box.

In those eight seasons he has played 174 of a possible 178 games, rested by the club once in his first year and forced to serve a two-week internal suspension in 2012.

He also missed Round 22, 2014 with a minor hamstring injury that was as much of a freshener as anything else.

That’s it.

He doesn’t get suspended (touch wood), doesn’t get injured, just plays to a ridiculously high standard each week.

Only 26 in June, a seven-year deal would see him hitting 33 at the end of his contract.

By that stage you can imagine him playing exclusively as a small forward in the mould of Leigh Matthews, kicking his 40 goals a year as a matchwinner.

Martin remains one of the top handful of one-on-one players in the forward 50, likely to be the smaller version of Alastair Lynch ageing gracefully despite a long-term deal.

Aside from 2012’s 10th placed Jack Dyer finish, he has never been out of the top four in seven completed seasons, about to win his second in succession.

He is in the conversation as the most consistent, which is remarkable in itself given his career is only eight years old.

Ahead of him a trio of 29-year-olds have put together some of the most awesome best-and-fairest results you would ever want to consider.

Scott Pendlebury has finished first (five times) or second in every Copeland Trophy since 2010 and might have been leading this year’s until a Round 17 finger injury.

Sydney’s Josh Kennedy hasn’t finished outside the top three since 2010 and will almost certainly win the Bob Skilton Medal again.

And Joel Selwood has finished top three in every Carji Greeves Medal since 2010 except for a sixth-placing in 2011, where he missed six games.

Only the Tigers know whether they have spare salary cap room if they can match an offer that hovers closer to $1.5 million.

As a firebrand teenager no one knew how he would turn out, but you would bet the house on him to remain a power for seven seasons to come.

BEST & FAIREST FINISHES
DUSTIN MARTIN (Richmond)
2010: 4th

2011: 3rd

2012: 10th

2013: 2nd

2014: 3rd

2015: 2nd

2016: 1st

2017: Likely 1st

JOSH KENNEDY (Sydney)
2010: 3rd

2011: 2nd

2012: 1st

2013: 3rd

2014: 2nd

2015: 1st

2016: 1st

2017: Likely 1st

JOEL SELWOOD (Geelong)
2010: 1st

2011: 6th (Missed 5 games)

2012: 2nd

2013: 1st

2014: 1st

2015: 3rd

2016: 2nd

2017: Will miss too many games

SCOTT PENDLEBURY (Collingwood)
2010: 2nd

2011: 1st

2012: 2nd

2013: 1st

2014: 1st

2015: 1st

2016: 1st

2017: Will miss too many games

 

[Quivorir]

Lmfao.

 

[giantroo]

Cale
If Kangas are offering 1.35 over 7 years, about 10 million, why wouldnt Richmond match. Hes worth it, they're not paying anyone else over 800K? maybe just rance and riewoldt


Jon
@Cale Hi I think it's more like the Roos are offering 1.5 over 7 years. I have been pushing really hard that they should match his deal. But I think the fact is North might win the wooden spoon. That takes away Richmond's leverage because if a club matches, the player can then ask for a trade or can go into either draft. The Tigers would be shattered if they matched and he walked to the pre-season for nothing

 

[giantroo]

James
I dont understand why Norf would do this deal? The are rebuilding team. The depth of talent by most accounts is fine but not the talent of a developing super team, they are going to get a gun midfielder with their top 2 pick and have an emerging star in Ben Brown. They pay Dusty, they may well end up losing Brown, Dusty will improve them but only to mid table at best therefore not getting key early picks (ala Carlton, Brissy) and will mostly likely waste Dusty in his prime. Think long term Roos!

Jon
James The Roos just have so much salary cap and no way to spend it, so they are pretty smart in having a crack at Dusty. That 1.5 million a year would be inspired in 7 years if they could get him, just like the deals for Lynch and Buddy will be judged in history. They had enough cash to offer him and Kelly that much money. Otherwise who do they pay? Especially if Goldstein leaves. They will extend Ben Brown but they have money for him too. That's what happens when you rebuild at a time when teh salary cap is going up so much

 

[Le Grille]

James
I dont understand why Norf would do this deal? The are rebuilding team. The depth of talent by most accounts is fine but not the talent of a developing super team, they are going to get a gun midfielder with their top 2 pick and have an emerging star in Ben Brown. They pay Dusty, they may well end up losing Brown, Dusty will improve them but only to mid table at best therefore not getting key early picks (ala Carlton, Brissy) and will mostly likely waste Dusty in his prime. Think long term Roos!

Jon
James The Roos just have so much salary cap and no way to spend it, so they are pretty smart in having a crack at Dusty. That 1.5 million a year would be inspired in 7 years if they could get him, just like the deals for Lynch and Buddy will be judged in history. They had enough cash to offer him and Kelly that much money. Otherwise who do they pay? Especially if Goldstein leaves. They will extend Ben Brown but they have money for him too. That's what happens when you rebuild at a time when teh salary cap is going up so much

At least he's being "normal" with the facts.

 

[giantroo]

It hurts him so much saying this:

Cale
Rockliff seems a bargain if you could pick him up for 650k over 5 years and lost no draft picks...

Jon
@Cale I agree. It's why clubs might come really hard for him if they miss out on Lever or Dusty or Kelly or McGovern. North Melbourne has it right - go as hard as you can for free agents who will give you three or four years or service and won't cost you a pick. Brisbane would get a second-round compo pick with those figures so get a pick between 17 or 20 for him. It's win win

 

[giantroo]

Josh
Get the tissues ready Ralphy and can't wait to see you covering Dustys first press conference at Arden St when I hope I hear you ask "why Dusty why?"


andrew
@Josh Yea right. No player in their right mind would leave a massive Melb club for Nth even for money.


Jon
Josh Josh, I can throw the toys out of the cot like few others. My thought on Dusty - losing him will cost them a premiership chance. Paying him another 150 grand a year, even if its on top of a massive offer, won't cost them a premiership. So sometimes you need to swallow your pride and just pay the boy what he is worth.

 

[giantroo]

Andrew
The stars at Hawthorn and Geelong were happy to take unders knowing that sustained success will translate into long term success off field. Dusty will go for the cash. He doesn't appear remotely interested in commercializing his on-field success off field. He's not going to be a media darling so he'll want to make hay now.

Josh
Andrew Dusty needs to think about life after footy because lets face it he aint going to be commentating the footy on channel 7 on a Friday night when he retires. The roos will look after him though when he finishes his career there and Richmond is but a memory to him


Jon
Andrew Yep, that's the real worry for me. I have asked and he does have some sponsors and through coterie members could get involved in business and commercial deals, which is what so many players have done in the past. But it's not really his go. He just wants to get paid outlandish amounts for playing footy, and you can't criticise him for that.

 

[kangaspurs]

Cale
If Kangas are offering 1.35 over 7 years, about 10 million, why wouldnt Richmond match. Hes worth it, they're not paying anyone else over 800K? maybe just rance and riewoldt


Jon
@Cale Hi I think it's more like the Roos are offering 1.5 over 7 years. I have been pushing really hard that they should match his deal. But I think the fact is North might win the wooden spoon. That takes away Richmond's leverage because if a club matches, the player can then ask for a trade or can go into either draft. The Tigers would be shattered if they matched and he walked to the pre-season for nothing

First question and it's absolute bullshit from Ralph.

If Richmond match the deal he's not asking for a trade or going to the PSD, he's staying at the Tigers. The only reason he'll leave is because he can earn more elsewhere. Either Richmond can't or are unwilling to match the 1.5m for 7.

 

[giantroo]

Timothy [URL='http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/expert-opinion/jon-ralph/dustin-martin-is-worth-every-dollar-clubs-throw-at-him-writes-jon-ralph/news-story/d70ac6b0bba70ea4672aea2f4bdbc120']
Is there an offer from the Saints fro Dusty?
Lever set for Dees?
Hooper of to?

Jon
timothy No, I reckon its Richmond or North for Dusty. GWS don't have the cash, Sydney are adamant they don't have the room for him either. Think it's purely a money thing, Sacrifice to stay at Richmond or take the cash to go to North. The Tigers won't increase their offer according to them so it's now in his court. Hopper might stay for two years on about 450K a year which is great money. He is half keen to go to Geelong and the Blues are also keen on him.
[/URL]

 

[King Corey]

Still love the undertone of this being the first ever player in history to possibly leave for financial reasons.

 

[giantroo]

LOL

Jon

David Lorraine Thought about that on Sunday when Dusty was only OK in the first half then roared home with 36 and a couple of goals. The Tigers will be ok and have a good list demographic to win home-and-away games without Dusty. How will they go winning finals and flags. You can't have too many match-winners when the whips are cracking. Even the pick they would get for him - pick 17 or so - isn't much to get absolutely amazing talent

 

[archereleven]

LOL

Jon

David Lorraine Thought about that on Sunday when Dusty was only OK in the first half then roared home with 36 and a couple of goals. The Tigers will be ok and have a good list demographic to win home-and-away games without Dusty. How will they go winning finals and flags. You can't have too many match-winners when the whips are cracking. Even the pick they would get for him - pick 17 or so - isn't much to get absolutely amazing talent

FMD!

 

[Jindrrk]

Jon Ralph

✔@RalphyHeraldSun
Kelly courted by a mystery suitor currently in the top 4?/Hopper keen to play under Hardwick?/Smith who tf is Smith?. Anything you want to discuss that ends in a verbal spunk off about Richmond. https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/900198677679153152 …

2:21 PM - Aug 23, 2017

What is this BS? Geelong or Richmond are the only options since he'll only go back to Melb.

 

[Orange Peanut]

We don't judge.

View attachment 406905

man, that pic of Bartel makes me... uncomfortable.

 

[giantroo]

Braydon
How is it ok for north yo approach dustys dad? Isnt that wrong on many levels let alone talking about a trade/ free agent before the end of season


Jon
@Braydon Hmmm, they have denied they are speaking to Dusty or flying over there to see him. His manager Ralph Carr has been to a couple of North Melbourne games and I am sure he has done his due diligence but I don't think Dusty has spoken to them. His good mate is Marley Williams and they know all about his strengths and weaknesses. I think it's buyer beware. Interesting that Paul Connors said yesterday he would never let his clients speak directly to a club interested in them while they were in the season

 

[archereleven]

What germs Richmond supporters are...

 

[NarniMagic]

This is a post I did at the start of the year. Since then it has become likely that we will lose Goldy and also the new salary cap is a confirmed 20% increase. We are LOADED. We can front load the shit out of the Martin and/or Kelly contracts next year.

Media DO NOT GET IT!


Edit: we've also since my post renewed a few contracts.



Measuring the War Chest

I'm going to have a crack at figuring out what sort of play money we're dealing with here. This is pure guesswork. I have no real idea what people are on so I'll try to be conservative with my estimations. I'd be very happy for some corrections or more accurate estimates and I can edit my post.

2016 Outs:

c. 600k or higher:
Wells
Dal Santo
c. 400-500k
Harvey
Petrie
c. 200k
Firrito
c. 100k
Nahas
Mackenzie
Tippett
Ray?

**Aaron Black**
What the hell was he on? I feel like it was a lot. Can anyone remember?

Total Lost: Somewhere between 2.5 - 3.4 M

2016 Ins:

Williams, Hrovat - 300k?
Ahern - Who knows 100-200k?

Draftees (we can actually know this):
Simpkin: $74,730
Watson: $67,935
Williams: $67,935
Larkey: $64,395

Zurhaar, Junker, Taylor: $64,395

Total In: Somewhere between 1M-1.5M

2016 Net Deficit: c. $1M - $2.3M

Then we need to remember that on top of this there will be plenty more retirements and delistings at the end of this season. Please don't everyone lose your shit at this, it's all pure speculation.

Red = very likely to be cut
Orange = unlikely but possible

Jarad Waite
Scott Thompson
Sam Gibson
Will Fordham
Andrew Swallow
Lachie Hansen
Ben Jacobs*

*Might seem harsh but I'm a bit worried for him contract is expiring and football isn't fair.

If we assume 4 or 5 of those happen (a safe assumption, as there is constant list turnover), I reckon that we can guess 2017 losses to be around $750k-1.5M.

It is also possible, but unlikely, that someone like Goldstein (on a mega contract) could be traded but let's ignore that possibility. Some of this contract space will be needed to spend on new draftees. We usually take 3 picks in the national draft and two rookies which is approx $350k.

Contracts

However let's not get too excited because there's existing player's contract renewals to consider. After all, retaining our own players should be the priority. I can't remember who signed at the end of last season so I'm just going to ignore that factor. Also I'm going to ignore the Rookies for this.

Renewals Needed:

Green= moderate to substantial pay rise will be needed
Orange = negligible to moderate rise needed
Red = possible pay cut

2017 end
Dumont
Clarke
McKay
Wanger
Nielson
Durdin
Mountford
Hibberd
2018 end
McDonald
Garner
Simpkin
Turner
Brown
Preuss
Higgins
Atley
Vickers-Willis
Watson, Williams, Larkey
Thomas

This is in constant flux. Who knows, Durdin might break out and suddenly need a big contract to secure him. I have to say though, as things stand, these contract negotiations should be pretty routine. Most are young guys who will only want pretty standard pay rises. We are going to have to put an extra 100k or two on many of the green players' new contracts. I might be wrong but I can't see the collective pay increase for all these players being much more than $1.5 million, unless one of these player's currency was to rise very dramatically in 12 months.

The most important thing to consider is how much of the cap we are paying this year. The salary cap is $10.6M and the floor is $10,070,000. We legally must be paying that much to our players. If we really did let go between $1.1-2.5M of payments last season, then we must have front loaded a heap of contracts in 2017 to an extreme degree just to pay that salary floor. This should free up even more cap space for next season and beyond.

Furthermore, (I believe, someone correct me if I'm wrong) the AFL rules work in a way that's similar to a mobile phone plan 'roll-over' system. What we don't pay of the cap in 2017 'rolls over' to 2018 and you then can pay that amount over the cap if you choose (But you can only roll over one year, it doesn't accumulate). This could mean that we could pay extra 600k over the cap next season and really front load some contracts.

The last thing to bear in mind is the new TPP that is being negotiated by the AFLPA. Who knows what this could mean.

In conclusion we are ******* loaded next year. It's not just the cap space though, it's the payment flexibility we seem to have that gives us negotiating power. So just how much play money do we actually have? It's complicated because contracts exist over many years and are structured creatively but going off all that info, estimates and speculation, a conservative guess would be about $2 million, but I believe it could be more like $3.5 million plus. This fits with the $1.5M to Dusty and $1M to Kelly.

Make no mistake we will be going hard at bringing in a superstar or two and we've got a lot of money to splash around.

There's more legitimate research and knowledge used in this post than every Dusty/Kelly to North article combined from the so called 'journos' this year