Traded Dylan Shiel [traded with future 2nd to Essendon for #9 and future 1st round pick]

[RudyBlue]

Treloar was also runner up in the B&F that year, and not about to become a free agent. The fact that he wasn't contracted is IMO less relevant than the fact that the potential target clubs couldn't just wait for FA the next year to pry Treloar loose.

My perception is that Shiel also has quite a strong emotional tie to GWS and wants to see his club well compensated, if he does leave.

 

[SSSSSS]

Shiel2Shiels coming right up.

 

[triggering bro]

My perception is that Shiel also has quite a strong emotional tie to GWS and wants to see his club well compensated, if he does leave.

LOL. I hear this all the time. He wouldn’t give a rats about draft picks. “Just get me to x club”.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

It's just the vibe.

On a serious note I was told way way before anyone on any boards knew.

So while Dylan was telling the club (and the media) that he plans on staying at the Giants- which he very well still could, he was secretly telling TazHawk15 that he was off to Hawthorn? Impressive.

 

[RudyBlue]

I reckon it'll be Hawks.

I would think pick 14 is good enough.

It's an interesting one. It seems like Hawthorn, Essendon and Carlton are the contenders. Conventional wisdom would suggest Hawthorn and Essendon have the best shot.

Hawthorn could get tied up sorting out appropriate compensation for GWS and Carlton is going to have its hands full with McGovern.

I feel like Essendon can most easily satisfy GWS.

 

[Kingofthehill]

So while Dylan was telling the club (and the media) that he plans on staying at the Giants- which he very well still could, he was secretly telling TazHawk15 that he was off to Hawthorn? Impressive.

It's the vibe

 

[DapperJong]

It's an interesting one. It seems like Hawthorn, Essendon and Carlton are the contenders. Conventional wisdom would suggest Hawthorn and Essendon have the best shot.

Hawthorn could get tied up sorting out appropriate compensation for GWS and Carlton is going to have its hands full with McGovern.

I feel like Essendon can most easily satisfy GWS.

I think Carlton and Hawthorn are more of a chance than Essendon. Dunno what I'm basing that on...

I am not particularly keen on Shiel so maybe that's why.

 

[hk89]

The way I see it going...

He’ll want to go to Hawks.

GWS will only allow him to move to a club that could adequately compensate them. They won’t have any interest in pick 14 & future Hawks picks.

I think club & player will mutually decide to stick fat for the next 12 months & go again in free agency.

That seems entirely possible. Reading between the lines it does sound like he's not that keen to leave his club in the lurch, which is what he might feeling cutting his contract short would be doing. Having said that, if he wants to help GWS, GWS are in a much stronger bargaining position with the destination club if he leaves now compared to next year. I wonder why he wants to leave at all to be honest. Connors says on the one hand he and his partner are happy in Sydney, but then says if he leaves it will only be Vic which suggests something is pulling him back home. Is his partner a Vic girl? I suspect a lot of the push to come home in those situations are driven by thoughts of starting a family, and the desire to have family support close by when doing that.

 

[6yearsold]

I would expect Hawthorn will need to give up at least a second rounder or player on top of our first rounder for exactly the reason you suggest. If he nominates us we need to make it look more attractive to take the deal now than wait for next year when the best they'll get without matching is likely an end-of-first-rounder (and it seems matching pretty much never happens, so that would be far and away the most likely scenario). When his manager says he'll play out his contract at GWS or come to Vic, I reckon he's pretty much saying he's chosen his preferred target club in Vic, and if GWS will not deal with them this year, he'll walk to them next year.

Not 100% confident that target is us yet, as it seems likely others might offer him more $'s which will be tempting for him, but if it is, I reckon we'll give a little more than a first rounder (hopefully not 2 first rounders), and get the deal done, allowing GWS to avoid getting less next year, and perhaps also helping them out with cap, if you believe that angle. I think the cap space is probably a secondary issue compared to his restricted FA status next year vs what GWS can get right now for him at the trade table.

I dont think late firsts even when combined with second rounders will cut it. i think his value is around pick 7-11.

the idea of adding players and picks is something most clubs don't fall for any more.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

When is the reported salary cap crunch at GWS going to come? I figure they're more likely to throw money at Kelly and Whitfield and let someone Shiel go when push comes to shove. But if that only hits at the end of next year, maybe they keep him for one more flag push before they have to start weakening the side.

 

[hk89]

I dont think late firsts even when combined with second rounders will cut it. i think his value is around pick 7-11.

And what do you think pick 14 + an early second rounder is worth? It is easily the equivalent of pick 7-11.

GWS still need to keep an eye on what they'll get for him next year when he's a restricted FA, and compare the (substantial) value of having him play for another year with them versus the less pick value he'll get them next year, and the cap space he'll be using up.

 

[Rusty_lucas]

I think he has always been planning on coming back to VIC as a free agent and GWS know this. If they can move him on a year early and get value then great. If not he is happy to stay there and play out his contract.

I’m not sure if shiel is fussed either way

 

[TazHawk15]

So while Dylan was telling the club (and the media) that he plans on staying at the Giants- which he very well still could, he was secretly telling TazHawk15 that he was off to Hawthorn? Impressive.

(stop making up shit)
What I said was, I was told by someone ages ago.

 

[6yearsold]

And what do you think pick 14 + an early second rounder is worth? It is easily the equivalent of pick 7-11.

GWS still need to keep an eye on what they'll get for him next year when he's a restricted FA, and compare the (substantial) value of having him play for another year with them versus the less pick value he'll get them next year, and the cap space he'll be using up.

equivalent maybe in 'points' but i honestly dont think that is how clubs look at it anymore. they always try and separate individual trades out so they don't get caught with, eg, losing a good player for 2 average players/picks.

 

[Wild Bill]

I reckon it'll be Hawks.

I would think pick 14 is good enough.

There is no way 14 will be good enough.

 

[Colonial]

And what do you think pick 14 + an early second rounder is worth? It is easily the equivalent of pick 7-11.

GWS still need to keep an eye on what they'll get for him next year when he's a restricted FA, and compare the (substantial) value of having him play for another year with them versus the less pick value he'll get them next year, and the cap space he'll be using up.

The club hasnt looked at "total points" since the rules for academy players changed.

Itll be all about the pick.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[DapperJong]

There is no way 14 will be good enough.

Why not?

 

[hk89]

The club hasnt looked at "total points" since the rules for academy players changed.

The concept of total points is still based on the probability of the players derived from the picks being good players. The reality is a first rounder and second rounder gives you two bites at the cherry, and depending on the exact pick numbers, the two picks might give you a higher total probability of picking up a player with a successful AFL career than 1 slightly higher first rounder does.

 

[Wild Bill]

Why not?

Because he is worth more than 14.

 

[DapperJong]

Because he is worth more than 14.

...why?

I think 14 is fair because of his age. Don't care that he has been AA etc. he has had an average year. Real risk that he has already peaked imo.

 

[hk89]

equivalent maybe in 'points' but i honestly dont think that is how clubs look at it anymore. they always try and separate individual trades out so they don't get caught with, eg, losing a good player for 2 average players/picks.

In any case, pick 14 plus a second rounder is still worth more than the FA compensation pick GWS will get for Shiel if they have to wait a year. If Shiel doesn't want to go to Saints, Carlton or Essendon, then it doesn't matter what picks they have this year, if GWS will not deal with Hawthorn, and he's happy to wait (which his manager seems to imply he is), then the deal will happen next year, and Hawthorn will get him for free with GWS getting less than what we put on the table this year. They can match to avoid that, but given the history of matching, I think that is a very unlikely scenario.

 

[Tristan34]

The way I see it going...

He’ll want to go to Hawks.

GWS will only allow him to move to a club that could adequately compensate them. They won’t have any interest in pick 14 & future Hawks picks.

I think club & player will mutually decide to stick fat for the next 12 months & go again in free agency.

They have significant salary cap issues.. Why would they want a player? I think picks will work, bit maybe a little overs considering so many clubs want him.

 

[schmuttt]

Reckon a deal similar to what GC got for Prestia would be fair (6 and Richmonds 2nd for Prestia + 24).

 

[Wild Bill]

...why?

I think 14 is fair because of his age. Don't care that he has been AA etc. he has had an average year. Real risk that he has already peaked imo.

He is 25 turning 26. His age profile is perfect for those in a window.

Heppell had an average year - you happy with pick 14 for Dyson? Same age - both AA's & 2018 similar stats.

 

[DapperJong]

Heppell had an average year - you happy with pick 14 for Dyson? Same age - both AA's & 2018 similar stats.

Firstly he had a better than average year, but I can't compete with North bias. But he also isn't coming off a shoulder problem from last year that he hasn't quite recovered from and may impact the rest of his career.